CurrentAsset67

Sirius: The Next Great 'Crisis' and Some Forgotten Facts

The problem with this stock is not that it needs "news", Mr. Self-Appointed Expert.

There is no problem with this stock. If anything, SIRI's current market valuation overstates the residual value of its equity. It's already overvalued.

The problem is with you and every other fast-talking pumper out there using every explanation under the sun (including sunspots) to convince people that the stock is actually worth more than it really is.

Given SIRI's staggering variable cost structure, the narrow appeal of its product, its ties to the struggling auto industry, the price-sensitivity of its customers, the low switching costs customers face when jumping to competitors, its astronomical share count, the proliferation of alternative media options, its ten-figure debt burden, and its jaw-dropping lack of profitability, this company's stock is vastly overvalued. Even in a best case scenario, it's worth under $1 per share.

SIRI's stock is generously valued. News does not drive a stock's price. Fundamentals do, including the ability to make outsized profits and service creditors. After ten years, this company still hasn't proven it can execute on fundamentals.

Sirius: The Next Great 'Crisis' and Some Forgotten Facts

Another cookie-cutter burst of propaganda from this struggling penny-stock's paid pumpers.

Sirius XM's Karmazin Speaks Out Against Reverse Split

This is smoke and mirrors. This is a classic case of Mel Karmazin trying to adjust the target so his wayward arrow will hit the bullseye.

Mr. Karmazin is proposing that a new listing requirement apply to companies with a market cap of under $500mm. Who at the NASDAQ supports the idea? How soon could it be implemented? Will it really change SIRI's poor profitability and lack of a competitive advantage? These fundamental factors, not wannabee day traders or regulatory shell games, ultimately drive its stock price.

McClatchy Company - On the Long Road to Recovery

This article completely ignores a fundamental touchstone of the print newspaper business: The ad dollars that once flowed in copious amounts will not return, even given a recovery in ad spending. Advertisers have too many choices available to them, and the structural shift in the media landscape means that advertisers have permanently re-allocated ad dollars away from traditional media, including newspapers. Newspapers have lost market share of overall ad spending even prior to the current downturn. Newspapers are not turnaround stories. They are unsustainable cost-cutting stories.

If Mr Shaw preaches a turnaround, I would like to know what his basis for that declaration is other than an unsustainable rally in its stock price. It is certainly not at the top line, which is the sole source of any sustainable recovery.

McClatchy's balance sheet remains larded with nearly $2 billion in debt, which is at more than 6x trailing EBITDA, higher than most peers. It reduced its debt through a strongarm exchange offer that in the minds of credit analysts, bordered on technical default. The fact that online revenue as a percentage of ad revenue has grown is more a function of a declining denominator than an increasing numerator. Not a buy.

Sirius XM's Nasdaq Non-Compliance Opportunity

Many bloggers on these financial sites are paid by the company to write fawning articles promoting the company's spin. I've seen this happen front-and-center with another media company: Cumulus. The author only disclosed that he "may have relationships" with the CEO and the company he wrote favorably about. He turned out to be the company's controller. It would not surprise me if this were the case here.


I call on Brandon Matthews, the author of this article, to fully disclose any and all financial ties, direct or indirect, with Sirius-XM Radio. Sir, will you deny any relationship with the company?

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

Mel Karmazin was pumping EBITDA positive by 2006 years ago. What leads you to believe he's right now?


On Sep 01 01:48 PM BigVinnie wrote:

> LOL.Right, that's why EBITDA guidance has been raised from quarter
> to quarter and there proving even with subscriber losses they can
> continue to raise this guidance.
> your assertions are hypocritical to a real world situation. You need
> to do your home work. This time next year the company is going to
> be cash flow positive. Sirius XM management has maintained an extremely
> aggressive approach to maintaining its subscriber acquisitions and
> improving this guidance by diminishing operating expenses.
> The company as of the last 2 quarters has been pretty on PAR with
> everything they have claimed for its guidance.

Sirius XM Price Target Raised by Top Media Analyst

"Someone should investigate this guy".

On what basis?

How will you accomplish this?

Who will finance the "investigation"?

Why don't you investigate him yourself and contribute some real information to this board?


On Sep 02 08:08 AM relmar2003 wrote:

> No reverse split for at least a year. Where was Siri-Doom on the
> way down? Telling you to sell your shares. No, he shows up at .12
> cents,30 cents and starts bashing then. Someone should investigate
> this guy. See who he works for. Probably shorts, some hedge fund,
> or the NAB. No has this much time to bash a stock they dont own,
> and never did.

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

You are clearly the kind of person who draws the conclusion he wants to draw, regardless of the facts or evidence submitted. That's fine. I'm just glad that you are not managing my money.


On Sep 01 10:22 AM Bubba-Ho-Tep wrote:

> OH....so you're just spending all your time in a forum of a stock
> you don't trade in? LOL. WHO DOES THAT? You shorts crack me up.<br/>
>
> As far as when I got in? Yeah, I FIRST got in over $1....BUT I averaged
> down....and when you and your fellow shorts were saying the company
> was going bankrupt in Feb, I was buying aggressively at below .10
> cents.
>
> I am WELL in the green now my friend.
>
> August Auto Sales are coming out in a few hours. Watch and learn.
>
>
> Sirius IS going up and there ain't a damn thing you can do about
> that shorty.
>
> As far as me wasting my time sharing my own DD with you? Forget it
> pal. Twist in the wind. The ONLY person I need to convince is myself...and
> I have profited from my homework on Sirius. You obviously haven't.
> I stand by my assertion that you ARE a bitter short. It's why you're
> spending your time on such a beautiful summer day bashing a stock
> you don't own. YEAH RIGHT.
>
> Cover now shorty. We ARE going over $1 and you're gonna lose even
> MORE of your money if you don't cover ASAP.
>
> You've been warned. :-)

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

If you're the kind of investor who listens to the company pumping its own stock, then no wonder you're under water. Doesn't that hurt, knowing that management has enriched itself with your get-rich-quick gullibility? Ask yourselves this: Why isn't institutional money rushing into this stock?

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

Thsoe are the company's price target objectives? What are your price target objectives? Why do you believe the company's figures at face value? What are your projections for EBITDA margin, potential share dilution, delisting risk, and debt maturity risk?


On Sep 01 10:15 AM R A F wrote:

> CurrentAsset67: You want some specific upside objectives - here they
> are: Based upon all technical formations - intermediate to longer
> term - SIRI is projecting potential toward .90 to 1.00 around the
> November release of 3rd Qtr. earnings and guidance; toward 1.25 to
> 1.50 over the next six months to one year; and toward 4.00 over the
> next two years (representing a 50% retracement of the declines from
> December '05 to the lows this past February). These projections have
> been consistently placed on these comment pages over the last few
> months, as SIRI began it's climb from the mid .30's (revised slightly
> along the way as SIRI gathered technical strength).

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

Siri - Doom has a very good point. The NASDAQ is going to get firm with companies whose share prices are languishing in penny stock territory. Struggling companies like Sirius-XM tend to dirty the water for more financially proven and profitable NASDAQ companies. It would not surprise me to see a warning letter of delisting from the NASDAQ by year-end.

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

These message boards tend to be little more than reaffirmation sessions for people who share a particular sentiment on a stock. There is plenty of room for healthy debate and discussion. These boards are meant for an exchange of views, not mutual backslapping sessions.

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

Your anger and irascible tone tell me that you are among the legions who are deeply underwater on this struggling stock. Am I right? What is your cost basis? It doesn't take much to articulate a buy target and sell target, unless you have not thought those items through. Have you read the company's financial statements? How much share dilution potential exists for SIRI? When do its debt traches mature? Will it have the cash to do so? What if John Malone takes his 40% stake and runs with it? Every astute analyst and money manager has a target buy and sell price. You're treating this stock as a lottery ticket, not as an investment.


On Sep 01 10:00 AM 1more4me wrote:

> Knucklehead- there is a word count limit on these articles! It would
> be impossible to provide eveyone with every possible metric, comparison,
> caveat, and conclusion of every line of a balance sheet- Brandon
> provided some basics- and some fine comparison companies at that.
> They are intended to encurage YOU to look into the details. Congratulation-
> you are a freakin accountant!
> And one more thing for your quick to discount reply- subscriber numbers
> have decreased only -ONLY- these last two Quarters- and marginally
> at that! Did you notice the economy out there- it's so bad markbdoomed
> can't afford to type up a new retarded catch phrase.
> Now what- you'll probably want to tell us it's a speculative stock
> and more of a Lottery ticket play---uh HELL YEAH- that's precisely
> why we love, play and PUMP it! Were making a killing and planning
> on making more. You want some love- quite crying and play a LONG
> with us...
> PEACE.

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

I do not own this stock, and never have. You're making some aggressive assumptions - with no real basis - by trying to peg me as a "bitter short". Very similar to your aggressive assumption - with no real basis - that this stock is headed upward. You are a wishful thinker, aren;'t you? Are you among the bitter legions who bought this stock well above $1?

Let me ask you a question: If you're so sure about this stock's direction, tell me what your target price is and how you arrive at it. What are your assumptions? At what price will this stock be a screaming sell?

If your basis for believing in the stock is sound, you will have answers to these questions.


On Sep 01 09:53 AM Bubba-Ho-Tep wrote:

> You're obviously a bitter short whose lost his shirt in Sirius's
> 1500% rise since February. Try to spin it ANY way you want, but Sirius
> is going UP and over $1 very soon. If you want to miss out on yet
> ANOTHER easy double with virtually NO downside....be my guest buddy.
> The shorts and bashers have lost. Cover and move on. You're done.
> :-P

What Are Sirius XM Shares Really Worth?

You're stating the obvious. This is a lottery stock that trades on wild - and unrealistic - expectations for profitability. This company has blazed through $10 billion in capital without ever turning a single penny of profit. if you want to look forward, babe, here's something to look forward to: Even if the company achieves stable revenue growth (and this is a big "if" given that it does not lock in its customers and is a niche product with multiple alternatives) - its debt obligations will consume so much of that profit that the equity is a lost cause. If you buy this stock, you are trading on someone's else's unrealistic expectations.


On Sep 01 09:28 AM R A F wrote:

> It's all about the future, CurrentAsset67; SIRI's potential for substantial
> revenue growth into the future from the resurgence of the auto industry
> and new wireless applications is clearly sufficient - in the minds
> of current investors - to more than adequately service this debt.
> Markets always trade to future expectations - not static balance
> sheet figures - and SIRI is now responding to this assessment of
> substantial potential into the futuree.