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pete123

pete123
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  • JRCC Liquidity Countdown [View instapost]
    coking coal, see right hand side chart (about a month out of date)

    http://bit.ly/14FXAb1

    china steel price (they make half the world's steel now), which drives the above, hasn't been doing well this year. But with massive central bank devaluation, who knows, anything can happen.
    May 19, 2013. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JRCC Liquidity Countdown [View instapost]
    Hi Mad330.

    Just saw the press release. They're down to something like $50MM remaining debt due 2015, so they have almost cleared that hurdle, which is great news for stock holders obviously.

    Before that, I they still need met coal prices to recover, so that's the big one I suppose. At today's prices they still don't make it. But they're doing a fantastic job of turning the stock into a leveraged met coal play, while buying time on the debt problem, so that alone gives the stock some value.
    May 19, 2013. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal Company - Finally A Buy [View article]
    or, maybe, they use the equity offering to take out the entire 2015 4.5% creditor class.
    those were $172MM, but currently worth $.31 on the dollar, so $53MM. perhaps most of them would be willing to trade their bond position for a ~50% equity position in JRCC. This would make sense only if the company was valued at over $100MM, which is more than where it is now. But maybe, without the need to roll over that debt in 2015, JRCC could survive in the scenario of a halfway price recovery in coal, and arguably, every other stakeholder would benefit in such a scenario too. (in particular, the senior bond holders would be likely to keep getting coupon payments, under the halfway-price-recovery scenario.).
    May 13, 2013. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal Company - Finally A Buy [View article]
    It appears that the proposal to raise equity was approved.

    They may issue up to 40MM shares. The price may be between the book value ($7.10/sh and falling as of 2013Dec31) down to 80% discount vs the book value($1.40/sh).

    So a my guess is, $50 - $100 MM might be raised. keeps the company going thru calendar year 2014, bond holders are assured of a couple extra coupon payments.
    May 13, 2013. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal Company Announces Preliminary Proxy Vote Results [View article]
    hooray for new equity investors!
    May 13, 2013. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Finds A New Enemy In The Browser Wars [View article]
    congratulations, and welcome to 10 years ago! ;-)
    May 1, 2013. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
    thanks for the update, Paulo. Seems like AMZN shares continue to be corralled in the $250-$275 range, any changes on when you believe this might end? how bout today's action?
    Apr 26, 2013. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal: Assessing The Risk Of Bankruptcy [View article]
    Great analysis! To just build on it and challenge the conclusion just a little, using your last table, I am getting:

    projected 2013 burn rate (yoy liquidity):

    scenario 1 : -78M, scenario 2: -46M, scenario 3: -14M

    this includes a one-time ~$20M+ ($10+/ton) benefit, since the production cut created a profitable net-short coal contract position.

    So with that adjustment, the burn rate looks like:

    scenario 1: -98M, scenario 2: -66M, scenario 3: -34M

    which still takes them out in 2014. Longer term there is 2015 debt rollover, the question of what the cut in capex and lower production volumes do to their per-ton thermal cost, the possibility of more economic shocks etc.

    On the flip side, i'm wondering about a short term play, since with their 2013Q1 could come out pretty good if they choose to cash in their short coal position.
    Apr 20, 2013. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal: Assessing The Risk Of Bankruptcy [View article]
    would their credit rating really recover by then? very nice article, by the way!
    Apr 20, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timing The Next Move In Coal [View article]
    very nice so far
    Apr 9, 2013. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JRCC Liquidity Countdown [View instapost]
    sold Jan put's. 40% gain. feel like a super schmuck for not holding the Apr's. ah well.
    Mar 27, 2013. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Update For 3 Coal Companies [View article]
    fyi, that cash they put in the bank was borrowed long-term, at about a 10% interest rate.

    see ANR 2012q4 cash flow sheet:

    net change in cash +$144 M
    cash from financing activities +$299 M
    Mar 24, 2013. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Important Is The Powder River Basin To ANR? [View article]
    yep stuff i learned:
    PRB: less energy/ton, less atmospheric pollutants, but more ash. slightly different plant equipment required to burn it than capp.

    the lower energy/ton and remote location of the mountain states where it's produced means users pay more for its transport than anything else.
    Mar 22, 2013. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Update For 3 Coal Companies [View article]
    yikes... those impairments should already be showing up in the balance sheet, the operating losses may continue.
    UPDATE - nevermind i think i have that backwards.
    Mar 22, 2013. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JRCC Liquidity Countdown [View instapost]
    sold Sep put's. 20% gain.
    Mar 21, 2013. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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