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Natural Gas: Burdensome Inventories Could Offset Seasonal Demand

Another head fake from UNG? www.liveenergy.com/200.../

U.S. Commodity Funds to Begin Trading 'United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund'

It will be interesting to see how this ETF plays out. For now, it appears UNG is still a good short. Market remains soft for the foreseeable future IMHO.

www.liveenergy.com/200.../

Why the Sudden Run Up in Natural Gas Prices?

H.T. - I appreciate your thoughts and insight. I am right there with you trying to figure this one out. I make my living as an energy consultant, and have watched NG everyday for he past ten years, and I still can't quite connect the dots that you are trying to connect. Keep it up, and don't listen to the negative voices on here.

Gold Explodes, Silver Shines, What's Up with Natural Gas?

UNG is tanking for 4 reasons...

1. Because the natural gas market is soft and trending down on fundamentals. To much gas, maybe not enough storage, and no weather events to push prices up.

2. The NG market is in a state of steep contango, with the front month trading around $2.65, and the next month out trading at $3.92.

3. The UNG roll procedure means that every month over a 4-5 day period, they must sell the prompt month, and roll into the next month out. Do the math and you will see how this impacts the (NAV) net asset value.

4. Lots of people who to not understand how this market works are getting and trading on emotion and hype.

That being said, it is pretty much doing exactly what you would expect it to do, if you understand what is going on with the market, as well as the fund's clearly stated objectives and protocols.

One more thing, because they are no longer issuing new shares, the fund is trading as a closed end fund, which is the reason that the premium to NAV has spiked to the 20% range in recent days.

For those that are interested, John Hylnad was interviewed on CNBC last night, and had a few interesting things to say.

Natural Gas ETF Premium Reaches 20%: Time to Unload?

Could somebody PLEASE tell me if they know how to find the roll dates and daily holdings of GAZ? UNG is a great trading vehicle if you understand what contango and the published protocol, but it is now difficult to sell short. GAZ seems like a possible alternative, but I cannot find roll dates ANYWHERE! Please help me out if you know where this can be found. And yes, I have looked in the prospectus and could not find it there.

iShares the Latest to Suspend Commodity Fund Creations

I cannot find daily holdings & roll dates for GAZ. Can anybody help me with this?

UNG, GAZ: Bizarre Mismatch

Thanks. Yeah I see the UNG holdings and roll dates, but cannot find the details on GAZ. Am I totally missing something on their website? I am holding UNG and trying to figure out the GAZ.


On Aug 24 09:30 AM H. T. Love wrote:

> Scroll through my comments. I've posted those links a lot.
>
> A starting point is here www.unitedstatesnatura.../
>
>
> HardToLove

UNG, GAZ: Bizarre Mismatch

I could not find the roll dates, and daily holdings information. Does anyone know where to find this?

Natural Gas Rig Count Is Slightly Up

Remember that the producers have spent a ton of money on leases that they will lose if they do not drill. So just because we see rig counts rise a little bit does not mean any gas will be produced from new wells. Simply poking a hole in the ground and capping it is all most producers have to do in order to prevent losing their land leases. I know for a fact that this is happening quite a bit in the Barnett Shale. UNG is an excellent buy right now. These producers are not stupid, and most of the smart ones have hedges in the $6-8 range in place through 2010 to protect against these low prices. Now they are in the mode of cutting back where possible so that they are not selling gas too cheap. This has taken a little time, but it is working and it is only a matter of time before we get back above $5.

What's in Store for the U.S. Natural Gas Fund?

As an energy broker who studies natural gas daily, and have done so for many years, I have to say I like UNG at this level. Bottom line is that this oversupply will work itself out, and all it takes is a few days of talk about "green shoots" to send natural gas up 10% or more in the course of a day.

I am an electricity broker and study natural gas on a daily basis for a living. I bought 15000 shares of UNG at average price of 13.48 last week. I am highly confident that a swing back up to at least 14.50 is inevitable. Just look at daily volatility over the past few months. Even if it just trades in this range for a while, I feel very good right now.

We have NEVER gone through a summer without a couple pops, and I see no reason not to assume a couple this summer / hurricane season. The upside potential far outweighs the potential downside at these levels. Buy when the pundits are all bearish. Almost all new generation planned in this country is natural gas fired, and the producers are throttling back production in a massive way. The pendulum will swing back the other way and that is a fact. Take a look at the historical chart over the past 8 years, and you will this pattern. I don't care how much new gas is being produced in the shale plays. The depletion rate is massive on these new wells, and the masters of the natural gas universe are not stupid. They are hitting the breaks right now, and it will not take long before we will see this equilibrium restore itself. Natural gas anywhere under $3.75 presents one of the best investing opportunities in the market. UNG is not a great vehicle for long term investing as long as we are in contango, but it is an excellent vehicle to catch these 10-20% pops on short term trades.

I guess we will see if I am right in the next two weeks.

Oh, So Now There Are No Green Shoots?

Great points. It is amazing how quickly these pundits on CNBC will change their opinions. Literally, from one day to the next they flip flop on their outlooks. They are either schizophrenic, total idiots, or simply know that they are there to spew "manic commentary" because that's what viewers expect. If you change your mind every few days your are right half the time. It's a joke. Natural gas is a great example. Anyone who really knows this market understands that as bad as the market is, and even though we have a ton of excess supply, this market is an absolute steal at current levels. Forget the pundits. Trade what you know and leverage their nonsense to your advantage. The only value in watching CNBC is to know what the unfortunate newcomers who believe what "entertainers" like Jim Cramer are thinking, and to trade against them.

Continued Bearish News for Natural Gas

I am an electricity broker and study natural gas on a daily basis for a living. I bought 15000 shares of UNG at average price of 13.48 yesterday. I am highly confident that a swing back up to at least 14.50 is inevitable (give it 10 days tops). Just look at daily volatility over the past few months. Even if it just trades in this range for a while, I feel very good right now. We have NEVER gone through a summer without a couple pops, and I see no reason not to assume we will get a couple this summer / hurricane season. we already saw one about a week or two ago on the formation of a tropical storm that quickly dissipated. The upside potential far outweighs the potential downside at these levels. I prefer to buy when the pundits are all bearish. NG is way oversold.

Fundamentals may look pretty bad, but i am not looking for a swing back to $6. I am simply looking to play this swing for +$4 down to a near all time low on prompt contract to $3.60 and then back up to test $4 again in the very short term. That is a nice 10% pop that has been repeating itself over and ever this year, regardless of how we break down and interpret the fundamentals.

Finally, almost all new generation planned in this country is natural gas fired, and the producers are throttling back production in a massive way. The pendulum will swing, and we will get back up into the $6-8 range in the next 12 months. And when we get extremely oversold I will continue to jump on and take the 10% ride up, over and over while we wait for the big trend to reverse.