Ralph F's Comments

Morning Call Market Summary

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:50:41 -0400

Thanks for posting this, Trend Trader - I'm now following you. Quick request: it would be helpful if you'd tag your post with the ticker symbols of the stocks you're discussing.

China gives up its controversial Green Dam plan which required filtering software to be installed on all PCs in the country, saying it "will fully respect everyone’s freedom of choice." The filter will still be installed on computers in public spaces.

Fri, 14 Aug 2009 08:15:56 -0400

ie. "We'll respect your freedom of choice as long as you're not in a public place". BS. What they really mean is: "We can control you in public, but not in private. But we wish we could do both."

Odyssey Marine Strikes Major Deal with Discovery Communications

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:51:41 -0400

OMEX's stock is down 50% on the news that a US magistrate has recommended returning the Black Swan coins to Spain. Do you have any view of that, or of OMEX's response here shipwreck.net/pr181.php ? Thanks.

August is the Time to Buy Odyssey Marine Exploration

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:51:32 -0400

Odyssey Marine Exploration: Digging for Gold - And Finding It

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:51:12 -0400

Stock Treasure at the Bottom of the Ocean?

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:50:18 -0400

Recession Hits Online Advertising: More Data

Sun, 07 Jun 2009 11:47:00 -0400

A friend forwarded me an email update from a luxury ad network called Halogen. Here's what they wrote:

"We have seen a substantial shift in the types of campaigns brands are running for premium CPMs. For branding, advertisers want big, bold, engaging solutions to include microsites, twitter campaigns, sponsored posts, custom content and large format ads. They are willing to pay >$20 CPMs for these. For direct response, they want the cheapest way to get their banners in front of their audience. Like we say in the office, 'the cookie has killed the CPM'. We are seeing more and more advertisers use behavioral targeting and re-targeting at <$2 CPMs to reach their target audience. Because of this, we are not seeing the quantity of run of network direct response campaigns we were seeing just 6 months ago.

Because of this phenomenon, you may notice lighter impression levels for June."

APIs and the Future of Web Content

Wed, 11 Mar 2009 18:16:27 -0400

V. thought provoking article -- as usual, Felix. One question: you say that websites can make money by bundling ads with their content via APIs, just as they do with RSS.

But do you know of anyone making money from ads in RSS?

Three Israeli Baby Googles

Fri, 06 Feb 2009 08:10:47 -0500

Can someone explain exactly what MAIL does? There's no conf call transcript for the company on this site; that would have been v. helpful.

Three Israeli Baby Googles

Fri, 06 Feb 2009 07:15:12 -0500

Useful article -- thanks for writing about these companies, which receive relatively little coverage.

I'm not sure I'd call them "baby Googles". That seems to imply that they have Google's business model and potential. Instead, ANSW and MAIL seem to be dependent on GOOG for revenue. I'm not sure that's a sustainable business model, or a recipe for a big win.

On MAIL, I'm still not clear from your article what they do. Perhaps it's just a collection of small things. But that's not a very compelling value proposition.

ANSW's WikiAnswers is an interesting product -- thanks for the heads up.

Internet Content in Crisis: Are We Becoming Mental Grasshoppers?

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:44:47 -0500

Similar comment from Antonio Rodriguez, an HP visionary:

Blogs as junkfood for the brain
theonda.org/articles/2...

The Hedge Fund Business Is Finished and Bernie Madoff Is Sealing the Deal

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 11:24:31 -0500

The core point of this article is valid: you need to understand where your money is, and if you don't understand how a hedge fund manager is running it and how safe it is, that's a problem.

Greg Mankiw: Swap the Payroll Tax for a Gas Tax

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 11:00:18 -0500

The payroll tax is a regressive tax, because it's capped, so it hits the middle class much harder than the wealthy. But you're right that a gas tax would be even more regressive.

Many economists have actually suggested removing the cap on the payroll tax.

On Dec 14 08:50 AM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> This is a great idea! Implementing this will enable us to destroy
> the middle class quickly instead of a little at a time. Let's see,
> millionaires don't have to pay any taxes at all except at the gas
> pump while those schmucks who temporarily have a job get to fill
> up at 7 bucks a gallon. Nothing like a little regressive taxation
> to turn the US into a true banana republic

First-Ever Airlines ETF Set for Takeoff

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 03:05:09 -0500

Any info on expense ratios?

Nissan (NSANY) posts November sales of 46,605, down 42.2% vs. consensus of -35%. (PR)

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:25:51 -0500

What currency is that in?

The holiday shopping season got off to a surprisingly solid start, with Black Friday sales up 3% (or 11%) from a year ago.

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 01:55:41 -0500

Why SCC? That's the double short consumer services ETF. Spending on consumer services is more resiliant than spending on discretionary consumer products, so you'd probably be better off going for SZK.

Here's a list I found of short sector ETFs that may be helpful:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

On Nov 30 12:51 PM D. McHattie wrote:

> Predition: overall retail sales for the Christmas season will be
> down significantly. The 3% black friday surge is front-loading,
> people shopping now to spend the least.
>
> I can't wait for retailer stocks to rally on this news so that I
> can buy SCC at an even lower price and gain that much more when retailers
> go bankrupt in Jan, Feb, Mar due to overall dismal Christmas sales.

"As we look at the NetBook category, that’s a nascent category. There’s as best as we can tell not a lot of them getting sold." Steve Jobs during Apple's (AAPL) recent conference call.

Thu, 27 Nov 2008 10:30:10 -0500

Remember that Apple makes a lot more money per MacBook than Acer or Asus make on a netbook.

Perini Corporation Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:53:22 -0500

Movements in stock prices are about changes relative to expectations. If they lower guidance, the stock will fall.

On Nov 25 03:37 PM User 218405 wrote:

> This is positive for the company. PCR is making money as compared
> with the Banks and GM or Ford. Yet the price has dropped almost as
> much as the corporations that are losing money. WHY?????
>
> Dan Kowkabany

Google (GOOG) search sites' U.S. share grew by 0.2% from a year ago in October to 63.1%, comScore says. Yahoo (YHOO) gained 0.3% to 20.5%. Here are Nielsen's ratings. More here.

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:48:03 -0500

I find the same thing. Though I do occasionally use Yahoo search when I'm on Yahoo's web site.

Citigroup (C) CFO Gary Crittenden says the bank has no need to sell assets at this point, and calls the fast-growing emerging markets franchise 'the core of the company.' (previously)

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 07:50:55 -0500

They why did C enter the US mortgage market so aggressively?

Zale (ZLC): FQ1 EPS of -$1.43 misses by $0.48. Revenue of $364M (-3.4%) vs. $382M. (PR)

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 07:48:22 -0500

Doesn't sound good for NILE.

Citigroup (C) CEO Pandit could step down due to a loss of confidence. Pandit says the bank's capital position is strong (sound familiar?), and it will not sell Smith Barney. CNBC

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 08:56:51 -0500

I worked for Pandit, and he's a highly talented guy. This wasn't his fault: he was brought into Citi relatively recently, way after this mess was caused.

Reluctant to broaden its $700B financial bailout, the Treasury turns down a request by General Motors (GM) for up to $10B to help finance a merger with Chrysler. Instead, the Treasury says it will try to speed up the Energy Department's $25B loan program for fuel-efficient vehicles.

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 07:34:42 -0500

So this administration FINALLY says "no" to something!
About time.

Remarkably, "Big Money" managers surveyed this week by Barron's magazine are unrelentingly optimistic - with 50% saying they're bullish or very bullish about the stock market's prospects through the middle of next year.

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 12:23:33 -0500

Why "remarkably"? Sentiment is really weak, so it's likely the market will go up from here.

U.S. demand for alcoholic beverages remains strong, and beer is poised to gain over expensive spirits. This is good news for Molson Coors (TAP), says Barron's, as cost-cutting and sustained growth could help the stock shine this year.

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 10:13:44 -0500

Not sure I agree. Drinking alcohol is a good way to forget that you just lost your job.

U.K. PM Gordon Brown believes there is support for a global financial rescue fund. "The Saudis will, I think, contribute like other countries, so that we can have a bigger fund worldwide to avoid the contagion - to avoid this spreading to different parts of the world."

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 10:12:33 -0500

Reading between the lines of what he said, it sounds to me like the UK is still in big trouble. Not the time to own the UK Pound.

Cramer's Lucrative New Deal With TheStreet.com

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 02:57:41 -0400

I think this article missed some of the most interesting parts of the employment agreement. The correct link to the full employment agreement is here:
www.sec.gov/Archives/e...

In particular:

"During the Term, except during any week when Cramer is on vacation as set forth in Section 2(d) hereof, Cramer will author no fewer than twelve (12) articles per week intended for publication in the Company’s online properties (thestreet.com, realmoney.com, mainstreet.com, bankingmyway.com, stockpickr.com, promotions.com) (collectively, the “Sites”). In addition, during the Term Cramer agrees to write for the Company’s product known as “Action Alerts PLUS” on such terms as are in effect on the Effective Date, and for such other products as the parties may mutually agree during the Term; provided, that, upon a Change of Control (as defined in Section 4(d) below), Cramer shall have no obligation whatsoever to write for any such products (including, but not limited to, Action Alerts PLUS) except upon mutual agreement between Cramer and the Company following such Change of Control."

And later:
"Notwithstanding the foregoing, following the consummation of a Change of Control any portion of the RSU Award which then remains unvested shall vest and become payable ratably over 36 months beginning at the end of the calendar month in which the Change of Control is consummated..."

In other words, if anyone tries to acquire TSCM, they don't get Cramer with it without renegotiating his contract, but all his stock vests immediately.

Very hard to see how anyone would buy TSCM under those circumstances.

BTW, I found this by doing a browser seach in the document for "change of control".

Why Dividend Paying Stocks Are a Mistake

Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:28:24 -0400

DVY's underperformance of the S&P 500 over the last 12 months illustrates a key problem with dividend ETFs: investors don't think about what's in them. Instead of thinking "I'm buying a dividend ETF", one should think "I'm buying a sector ETF full of financial, utilities etc."

A sector ETF full of financials? That doesn't sound so good to many people right now.

Smooth Sailing Ahead for Carnival - Barron's

Sun, 06 Apr 2008 13:49:08 -0400

Both CCL and RCL are arguably also a good way to play the retirement of the baby boomers.

Annaly Capital Management: More Than One Way To Milk a Cash Cow

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 05:51:13 -0400

I'd be interested to hear what the company has to say about this.