Danny Devito's Instablog I'm born in Italy in 1975. I trade since I was 17 years old and I've over 15 years experience in trading as private trader and now as hedge fund manager, financial advisor and broker. I'm interested in all trading strategies can give me inspiration and a positive return. Usually I'm short term trader when the markets are in top cycle and I'm a buy/hold trader when the market are near to the bottom area and I can prognosticate a bullish market that usually has a 2/3 years lenght. I usually like stocks with low PEs below 15 and I don't invest in stocks with high debt, so fundamentals are a way to filter stocks, and this doesn't mean as people thing to eliminate the best and volatile stocks. Take a look for example to PBR what did since the low in 2008/2009. And it was a quality stocks by fundamentals. I did 5 calls in 2009: 1. CG Centerra Gold at 1.25 CAD per share. (+600% in few months, and 1000% in a year) I gave as target of 1 year average or over 300% increase. 2. GCE Grande Cache Coal at 0.65 CAD per share. (+650% in few months and 1000% in a year) I gave as target of 1 year average or over 300% increase. proof can be found in hotstockmarket forum. 3. UNG long (with use of options, I closed this strategy with a loss of 3/4% maximum). 4. UNG/USO spread (closed 2nd september 2009 in loss of 20%, this bet could be maximum a 10% of a speculative portfolio, so a loss of 2% of portfolio). 5. Arbitrage UNG with natural gas future NG. Sold at 15% and 20% the premium going short of UNG and long October futures.with an average around 16/17% i closed my arbitrage in a first drop friday 11 semptember 2009 at 9%, with a gain of around 5/6% of my capitals. In the same day the premium rebounded to 15% and I sold in average around 13% or something more and the monday a news about UNG issuing again new share sent in panic UNG holders and the the premium made a drop to 5% only. I made another 5% profit only because I entered again in the premium just with 50% of my previous aggressive position. I think to this trade to have done over a 9/10% profit in less of a month trading with this strategy. Update: the premium 28 september went so low till 1,2% so we can consider the August opportunity as a "bargain" that hardly we will in our life another time. But let's hope. I was the first guy to write about this opportunity in Seeking Alpha and the second in the worldwide web after this guy was short 1 day before me, at least decleared on web, for sure a lot of arbitragists found this opportunity even days and day before. But..everybody in silence, better to speaks about ideas. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=245824&t=02009005112621729295 Proofs in Seeking Alpha. 6. November 4 2009. I bought GU, Gushan Environmental Energy, at 1.35 USD per share. Is a long term play (2/3 years), 1% of portfolio. 7. I bought RIMM at 58.08 for the long term, 2/3 years investment, 1% of portfolio. 8. Bought INTC at 21.33 on good earnings and PE near 9. Danny Devito http://seekingalpha.com/user/440838/instablog Exit from VNM buying etf EGPT http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/133802-exit-from-vnm-buying-etf-egpt?source=feed 133802 Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:26:26 -0500 egpt INTC - Long on INTEL at 21.33 few days ago http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/131109-intc-long-on-intel-at-21-33-few-days-ago?source=feed 131109

I decide to add in my portfolio INTEL

Price earning is near to 9 considering the recent EPS/quarter.

I also traded in the past weeks RIMM and NVDA again but I forgot to login and post.

See you soon friends.
]]> Fri, 21 Jan 2011 15:54:45 -0500

I decide to add in my portfolio INTEL

Price earning is near to 9 considering the recent EPS/quarter.

I also traded in the past weeks RIMM and NVDA again but I forgot to login and post.

See you soon friends.
]]> intc VNM (Vietnam ETF) I try a long/bullish view http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/131102-vnm-vietnam-etf-i-try-a-long-bullish-view?source=feed 131102

I like what is happening in area 25.50 of this Vietname etf.

That country is in late to the Asia rally and Thailand neiboughr/border.

If the US stock market won't fall rapidly and soon, I think that are good probability to see this ETF above the highs at 30 with a target in area 34 at least in the medium term.

Anybody like VNM and did some study about it?

Bye

]]> Fri, 21 Jan 2011 15:46:21 -0500

I like what is happening in area 25.50 of this Vietname etf.

That country is in late to the Asia rally and Thailand neiboughr/border.

If the US stock market won't fall rapidly and soon, I think that are good probability to see this ETF above the highs at 30 with a target in area 34 at least in the medium term.

Anybody like VNM and did some study about it?

Bye

]]> vnm Vietnam short TURKEY etf (TUR) http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/66934-short-turkey-etf-tur?source=feed 66934

Always if can help, to somebody with same my view on bearish market,
I'm shorting TUR etf, emerging market like Turkey still very high like Indonesia near to all time highs, should suffer Europe crisis and target here to is the area 45, lows of november 2009.

]]> Wed, 05 May 2010 19:41:33 -0400

Always if can help, to somebody with same my view on bearish market,
I'm shorting TUR etf, emerging market like Turkey still very high like Indonesia near to all time highs, should suffer Europe crisis and target here to is the area 45, lows of november 2009.

]]> tur Turkey short Short INDONESIA etf http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/66933-short-indonesia-etf?source=feed 66933

If can help, I'm shorting a bit some ETF on markets still on the top, and all time records, like Indonesia.

Target for this ETF the area 55.

]]> Wed, 05 May 2010 19:37:58 -0400

If can help, I'm shorting a bit some ETF on markets still on the top, and all time records, like Indonesia.

Target for this ETF the area 55.

]]> idx Indonesia short Time to buy BONDS for the last time before the real bullissh rally of 2011/2012 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/47694-time-to-buy-bonds-for-the-last-time-before-the-real-bullissh-rally-of-2011-2012?source=feed 47694

Personally we are at the moment 100% long on ZB futures and buying some march put to cover the downside risk.
 

Target at least the area 123.
 

The reason you know, finally worldwide markets are weak enough, below monthly, quaterly and in some cases yearly moving averages.

The bearish rally is arrived, we will have to see in my opinion some market even hit new lows below 2009, for example Greece, some make a double bottom while some like emerging and high growth countries make a double bottom ascending or just a spike V reverse.

I think that the weakest countries will be Greece, Portugal, eastern europe, Japan, high debt countries like Italy, Ireland, etc while the best markets to accumulate India, Cina, Brasile, Mexico, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and so on.

Take a look to ETFscreen.com right now to the 1 month worse/best performers and you will see that metals, coal, steel, solar energy, alternative energy and clean etc are falling and the unique etfs doing well are bonds correlated.

This my view for now.
 

See you.

 


]]> Sun, 07 Feb 2010 12:22:19 -0500

Personally we are at the moment 100% long on ZB futures and buying some march put to cover the downside risk.
 

Target at least the area 123.
 

The reason you know, finally worldwide markets are weak enough, below monthly, quaterly and in some cases yearly moving averages.

The bearish rally is arrived, we will have to see in my opinion some market even hit new lows below 2009, for example Greece, some make a double bottom while some like emerging and high growth countries make a double bottom ascending or just a spike V reverse.

I think that the weakest countries will be Greece, Portugal, eastern europe, Japan, high debt countries like Italy, Ireland, etc while the best markets to accumulate India, Cina, Brasile, Mexico, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and so on.

Take a look to ETFscreen.com right now to the 1 month worse/best performers and you will see that metals, coal, steel, solar energy, alternative energy and clean etc are falling and the unique etfs doing well are bonds correlated.

This my view for now.
 

See you.

 


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