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    <title>Danny Devito's Instablog</title>
    <description>I'm born in Italy in 1975.

I trade since I was 17 years old and I've over 15 years experience in trading as private trader and now as hedge fund manager, financial advisor and broker.
I'm interested in all trading strategies can give me inspiration and a positive return. 
Usually I'm short term trader when the markets are in top cycle and I'm a buy/hold trader when the market are near to the bottom area and I can prognosticate a bullish market that usually has a 2/3 years lenght.
I usually like stocks with low PEs below 15 and I don't invest in stocks with high debt, so fundamentals are a way to filter stocks, and this doesn't mean as people thing to eliminate the best and volatile stocks. Take a look for example to PBR what did since the low in 2008/2009. 
And it was a quality stocks by fundamentals.

I did 5 calls in 2009:

1. CG Centerra Gold at 1.25 CAD per share. (+600% in few months)
    I gave as target of 1 year average or over 300% increase.
2. GCE Grande Cache Coal at 0.65 CAD per share. (+650% in few months)
    I gave as target of 1 year average or over 300% increase.

proof can be found in hotstockmarket forum.

3. UNG long (with use of options, I closed this strategy with a loss of 3/4% maximum).
4. UNG/USO spread (closed 2nd september 2009 in loss of 20%, this bet could be maximum a 10% of a speculative portfolio, so a loss of 2% of portfolio).
5. Arbitrage UNG with natural gas future NG. Sold at 15% and 20% the premium going short of UNG and long October futures.with an average around 16/17% i closed my arbitrage in a first drop friday 11 semptember 2009 at 9%, with a gain of around 5/6% of my capitals. In the same day the premium rebounded to 15% and I sold in average around 13% or something more and the monday a news about UNG issuing again new share sent in panic UNG holders and the the premium made a drop to 5% only. I made another 5% profit only because I entered again in the premium just with 50% of my previous aggressive position.
I think to this trade to have done over a 9/10% profit in less of a month trading with this strategy. Update: the premium 28 september went so low till 1,2% so we can consider 
the August opportunity as a "bargain" that hardly we will in our life another time. But let's hope.
I was the first guy to write about this opportunity in Seeking Alpha and the second in the worldwide web after this guy was short 1 day before me, at least decleared on web, for sure a lot of arbitragists found this opportunity even days and day before. But..everybody in silence, better to speaks about ideas.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=245824&amp;t=02009005112621729295

Proofs in Seeking Alpha.

6. November 4 2009. I bought GU, Gushan Environmental Energy, at 1.35 USD per share.
Target abobe 3.25 USD and I will give an exact target after the bottom will be formed.
The reason is fundamentals. Read the transcript in Seeking alpha.
Is a long term play (2/3 years), 1% of portfolio.

7. I bought RIMM at 58.08 for the long term, 2/3 years investment, 1% of portfolio.

Actually I'm 2% long stocks, and 98% cash. A part some arbitrage/spread not risky.

to contact me for urgent matters and/or jobs,
but most important to share ideas of value investiments, please please please
email to worldtrading@gmail.com
</description>
    <author>
      <name>Danny Devito</name>
    </author>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com</link>
    <item>
      <title>GU Gushan up 17 cents since the call</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/34946-gu-gushan-up-17-cents-since-the-call?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">34946</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/9/440838-12577851379094-Danny-Devito_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/9/440838-12577851379094-Danny-Devito.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>Since may call of GU at 1.35 we saw a rally of 17 cents to 1.52 usd.<br>However, are not all roses.<br>The low is too much in a V shape, and we need a better and solid base like the one of end febrary 2009 and march 2009.&nbsp;So we can expect an up and down in the range 1.25/1.60 that can be extended to 2.00 in case of real euphoria.<br><br>We are waiting the next board meeting in few days.&nbsp;High volatility.<br><br>Let's comment in few days GU again. Bye.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:47:59 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/9/440838-12577851379094-Danny-Devito_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/9/440838-12577851379094-Danny-Devito.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>Since may call of GU at 1.35 we saw a rally of 17 cents to 1.52 usd.<br>However, are not all roses.<br>The low is too much in a V shape, and we need a better and solid base like the one of end febrary 2009 and march 2009.&nbsp;So we can expect an up and down in the range 1.25/1.60 that can be extended to 2.00 in case of real euphoria.<br><br>We are waiting the next board meeting in few days.&nbsp;High volatility.<br><br>Let's comment in few days GU again. Bye.<br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gu/instablogs">gu</category>
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    <item>
      <title>HotStocksMarket forum</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/34725-hotstocksmarket-forum?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">34725</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[hoping to see here friends from hotstocksmarket<br><br><a target='_blank' href='http://www.hotstockmarket.com' rel="nofollow">www.hotstockmarket.com</a><br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sat, 07 Nov 2009 05:14:45 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[hoping to see here friends from hotstocksmarket<br><br><a target='_blank' href='http://www.hotstockmarket.com' rel="nofollow">www.hotstockmarket.com</a><br>]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>UNG interesting levels - be carefull!</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/34684-ung-interesting-levels-be-carefull?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">34684</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/6/440838-12575428828219-Danny-Devito_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/6/440838-12575428828219-Danny-Devito.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>Nice levels for UNG. Double bottom formation, in area 9.00.<br><br>be carefull, it's very risky the trading on commodity ETFs so I just post this chart and call for very expert traders able to hedge position very quickly.<br><br>I&nbsp;see still low premiums in options, so I'm not willing to sell puts yet.<br><p>I&nbsp;wait. However I just want to post this because is becoming hot... each day after UNG.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>Now there are 375 million shares outstanding. Premium is still low around 3% or less.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:30:15 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/6/440838-12575428828219-Danny-Devito_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/6/440838-12575428828219-Danny-Devito.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>Nice levels for UNG. Double bottom formation, in area 9.00.<br><br>be carefull, it's very risky the trading on commodity ETFs so I just post this chart and call for very expert traders able to hedge position very quickly.<br><br>I&nbsp;see still low premiums in options, so I'm not willing to sell puts yet.<br><p>I&nbsp;wait. However I just want to post this because is becoming hot... each day after UNG.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>Now there are 375 million shares outstanding. Premium is still low around 3% or less.</p>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ung/instablogs">ung</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>TOP 24 index, developped in Feb/March 2009.</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/34534-top-24-index-developped-in-feb-march-2009?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">34534</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[I&nbsp;found my top 24 favourite stocks in the top 630 stocks per capitalization.<br><p>I&nbsp;will not mention the list of 24, because I&nbsp;still need to decide what to do of such list, and probabily I will use my &quot;formula&quot; to filter it in my job of trader, broker and asset manager.</p><p>So don't be sad if I can't show it to you, but if you believe me, can be helpfull in your studies too if you are looking as me to select the best stocks where to put your money for the next bullish cycle.</p><p>I&nbsp;believe that the bottom of markets is done in march 2009, but the rally was too fast, too soon and too big, so I think that a normal pullback to 1 year averages will be done. I&nbsp;like the 1 year average, and not the 200 sma usued in the USA, but the meaning is similar.<br><br>I&nbsp;found my top 24 stocks. You can find your, and compare with my results.<br>Those are all BIG CAPS, so any small cap like GU is calculated.<br><br>My index as in the chart posted at the bottom did 2 lows one in november at<br>86.35 and one in march 2009 at 86.73!&nbsp;Ascending so my stocks were not able to do a new low as sp500.<br><br>Then in october 2009 after 7 months of rally my index went to 161.39 for a rally of 86,08%.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>Now, the Dow Jones did only a 55,88% return, Sp500 65,07 and Nasdaq 100 a nice 74,82.</p><p>I&nbsp;overperformed the best index of <strong>11,26%</strong>.<br><br>Now, it can seem a great result or not, but I add the fact that in my TOP 24 there was big and slow elephants like KO or some pharma or JNJ.</p><p>So it sound to me a great result.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>I&nbsp;will apply my formula to many sectors and country to trade the most volatile baskets if not happy to have a TOP 24 index not so volatile as it could be trading gold stocks, coal, metals/mining, or emerging markets.<br><br>I&nbsp;hope you enjoed this index I created. I&nbsp;repeat, I apologize I cannot list the 24 stocks, but I'm very attached to this project so I will do may be in the next years, but right now I need to decide how to use this formula.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745880277672-Danny-Devito_origin.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745880277672-Danny-Devito.jpg" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:06:53 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[I&nbsp;found my top 24 favourite stocks in the top 630 stocks per capitalization.<br><p>I&nbsp;will not mention the list of 24, because I&nbsp;still need to decide what to do of such list, and probabily I will use my &quot;formula&quot; to filter it in my job of trader, broker and asset manager.</p><p>So don't be sad if I can't show it to you, but if you believe me, can be helpfull in your studies too if you are looking as me to select the best stocks where to put your money for the next bullish cycle.</p><p>I&nbsp;believe that the bottom of markets is done in march 2009, but the rally was too fast, too soon and too big, so I think that a normal pullback to 1 year averages will be done. I&nbsp;like the 1 year average, and not the 200 sma usued in the USA, but the meaning is similar.<br><br>I&nbsp;found my top 24 stocks. You can find your, and compare with my results.<br>Those are all BIG CAPS, so any small cap like GU is calculated.<br><br>My index as in the chart posted at the bottom did 2 lows one in november at<br>86.35 and one in march 2009 at 86.73!&nbsp;Ascending so my stocks were not able to do a new low as sp500.<br><br>Then in october 2009 after 7 months of rally my index went to 161.39 for a rally of 86,08%.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>Now, the Dow Jones did only a 55,88% return, Sp500 65,07 and Nasdaq 100 a nice 74,82.</p><p>I&nbsp;overperformed the best index of <strong>11,26%</strong>.<br><br>Now, it can seem a great result or not, but I add the fact that in my TOP 24 there was big and slow elephants like KO or some pharma or JNJ.</p><p>So it sound to me a great result.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>I&nbsp;will apply my formula to many sectors and country to trade the most volatile baskets if not happy to have a TOP 24 index not so volatile as it could be trading gold stocks, coal, metals/mining, or emerging markets.<br><br>I&nbsp;hope you enjoed this index I created. I&nbsp;repeat, I apologize I cannot list the 24 stocks, but I'm very attached to this project so I will do may be in the next years, but right now I need to decide how to use this formula.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745880277672-Danny-Devito_origin.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745880277672-Danny-Devito.jpg" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>My positions LONG 2%, cash 98%, stay at the window.</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/34530-my-positions-long-2-cash-98-stay-at-the-window?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">34530</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[I'm still waiting better prices to enter long in the long term.<br><p>However, as anticipated, I'm starting to buy what is cheap, and my first buy of a quality and big cap is RIMM. The second, a small cap is GU, that you choose to discard if you don't like small caps, because your portfolio &quot;too big&quot;. <br><br>I'm waiting also GRMN on the support area of 24.50. Will be my second buy, however I see rebound it today.&nbsp;It will take days or weeks may be to approach my desired area.<br><br>However I'm confident, that those level are expensive and I will wait may be the spring 2010 for the right retreacment everybody is waiting.<br><br>Also UNG&nbsp;is interesting for me, but I suffered too much to trade it in 2009, so I prefer to stay at the window in this case too,&nbsp;I will sell some put only if I will see high volatility because the puts are trading too low. (Nice the VIX&nbsp;at 90 uh?).<br><br>I&nbsp;developped today my INDEX of TOP 24 stocks I selected in the US TOP&nbsp;630 stocks (Nasdaq 100, Dow 30 and&nbsp;Sp500).<br>&nbsp;</p><p>I&nbsp;will post in the next blog in few minutes.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:53:44 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[I'm still waiting better prices to enter long in the long term.<br><p>However, as anticipated, I'm starting to buy what is cheap, and my first buy of a quality and big cap is RIMM. The second, a small cap is GU, that you choose to discard if you don't like small caps, because your portfolio &quot;too big&quot;. <br><br>I'm waiting also GRMN on the support area of 24.50. Will be my second buy, however I see rebound it today.&nbsp;It will take days or weeks may be to approach my desired area.<br><br>However I'm confident, that those level are expensive and I will wait may be the spring 2010 for the right retreacment everybody is waiting.<br><br>Also UNG&nbsp;is interesting for me, but I suffered too much to trade it in 2009, so I prefer to stay at the window in this case too,&nbsp;I will sell some put only if I will see high volatility because the puts are trading too low. (Nice the VIX&nbsp;at 90 uh?).<br><br>I&nbsp;developped today my INDEX of TOP 24 stocks I selected in the US TOP&nbsp;630 stocks (Nasdaq 100, Dow 30 and&nbsp;Sp500).<br>&nbsp;</p><p>I&nbsp;will post in the next blog in few minutes.</p>]]>
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      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rimm/instablogs">rimm</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gu/instablogs">gu</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/grmn/instablogs">grmn</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>RIMM a long term buy, 58.08 and 1% stake of my portfolio</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/440838-danny-devito/34514-rimm-a-long-term-buy-58-08-and-1-stake-of-my-portfolio?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">34514</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[I&nbsp;don't need to explain what is RIMM and their business.<br><p>Just some fact, good fundamentals, prices below 1 year average, the right point where to start to invest long term. One of the few stocks we can consider at a &quot;rational&quot; value.<br><br>58.08 is my entry. 1% of portfolio<br><br>Long term investiment at 3/4 years waiting the top of indexes, worldwide.<br><br>I will add some share, 0,5% of portfolio, if I will see an area 40/35 again. Not before.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>That's all, here the chart.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745167893714-Danny-Devito_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745167893714-Danny-Devito.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:08:06 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[I&nbsp;don't need to explain what is RIMM and their business.<br><p>Just some fact, good fundamentals, prices below 1 year average, the right point where to start to invest long term. One of the few stocks we can consider at a &quot;rational&quot; value.<br><br>58.08 is my entry. 1% of portfolio<br><br>Long term investiment at 3/4 years waiting the top of indexes, worldwide.<br><br>I will add some share, 0,5% of portfolio, if I will see an area 40/35 again. Not before.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>That's all, here the chart.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745167893714-Danny-Devito_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/440838-125745167893714-Danny-Devito.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a></p>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rimm/instablogs">rimm</category>
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