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  • Japanese stocks move higher in early trading, as investors shrug off weak GDP data and focus their attention on a central bank decision due out later in the day. The Nikkei Average rose 0.4% to 11,291, with the blue chips most active: Sony (SNE +1.3%), Fujitsu (FJTSY.PK +0.7%), Olympus (OCPNY.PK +1.2%), Hitachi (HTHIY.PK -1%) and Nissan (NSANY.PK -0.8). [View news story]
    They will. This will not go on in perpetuity. Mardi Gras is over, Ash Wednesday has passed, the carnival is coming to a close and time for austerity: fasting and sacrifice. The markets are analogous. On Valentine's day or the next will be the turning point in this cyclical bull market. By the end of February our view of the markets and economy will be radically shifted. A sea change will have occurred: sobriety will occupy jubilance's former space.

    There are cracks in the surface, the facade; a narrative that the economy is recovering and gaining momentum. We shall see through the cracks and begin to see the sober reality that lies within.
    Feb 14 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Retail Sales+0.1% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.5% prior. Ex-auto +0.2% vs +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior. [View news story]
    Joseph, you drive a hard bargain. If the market begins to go down tomorrow and over the next few weeks we have a complete discontinuation of the cyclical bull market, lose most of the gains made since 2009, will you dispute my call if it takes until the end of the month?

    I have an eery confidence that it is all but inevitable and has, in a sense, already occurred. There is nothing that could be done to reverse this crash that is going to take place. There are times in the market when perhaps a certain outcome is not inevitable but I believe this is not one of them.

    If the market does crash here in February, whether it falls apart completely tomorrow or requires a couple weeks to do so, either way I will do quite fine. That is my ultimate goal as I told you before: financial autonomy.

    Once again I will leave you my friend with "we shall see."

    Feb 13 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Retail Sales+0.1% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.5% prior. Ex-auto +0.2% vs +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior. [View news story]
    Polly you are exactly right about Valentine's day being the beginning. Although I said it would be a steep and swift decline, I don't necessarily believe that we will see the full impact tomorrow or that we will reach the low in the S&P all in one day.

    In my most recent posts I articulated that the market will begin to fall apart tomorrow and this will continue until late in the month. With a 1074 price call on the S&P, I don't expect tomorrow will bring us there. Tomorrow will mark the beginning of the end of this cyclical bull market. Time will take care of the rest.

    Today's action has emboldened me. I believe we are on the precipice looking down. In my most recent article, I believe the crash has already occurred (link above). By this I mean the bat has made contact, the ball is sailing through the air, it's forty feet above the outfielders head and is dropping into the stands but still hasn't been caught by the fans holding up their mits. It's a homerun but not officially until it lands.

    Good luck friends!

    BTW Joseph is just giving me a hard time.
    Feb 13 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Retail Sales+0.1% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.5% prior. Ex-auto +0.2% vs +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior. [View news story]
    Good news! Right?

    I have argued that the stock market has already crashed. See my article here:
    Feb 13 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    I don't think the world will end either, but I think everything is lining up for a quick and steep crash, which will be buoyed, at some point, by further intervention.
    Feb 12 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs Of Froth [View article]
    That's just your opinion.
    Feb 12 09:32 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    Stephen, have you read my two instablog articles? They are reflecting your sentiments quite precisely.
    Feb 12 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    Macro, there will be one big dip for you to buy. Come Valentine's Day prepare yourself for the beginning of a decline that will take the stock market down to around 1074 in short order.
    Feb 12 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Credit Market Cruisin' For A Bruisin'? [View article]
    "I have no idea what the trigger might be, but stock bulls should be aware of this risk."

    Reports that definitively reveal the weakness of consumer spending, namely retail sales on Wednesday and jobless claims on Thursday.

    Valentine's day will be the beginning of the rout that will follow through to around February 27th before bottoming around 1074 S&P.
    Feb 11 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Next Week Answer Correction Question? [View article]
    "Will next week answer correction question?"


    "It is not who is right, but what is right, that is of importance." - Thomas Huxley

    I've considered this since mid-December when I had a psychic premonition that the market would rally in "fool's gold" fashion through January, be marred by poor GDP report, and ultimately begin to fall steep and fast beginning on or around Valentine's day.

    I've continually asked myself the question, which was first posed to me by my wife, "Do you want to be right, or do you want to know the truth?" After considering this for the past month or so, I just want to know the truth, whether it be a continuation of the bull market or the beginning of a bear market. My intuition has time and again showed me, demonstrated to me, that my original insight in mid-December is reflective of the truth and not simply my own desire for righteousness.

    The bear market will begin in earnest at the end of this week. It will continue through to around February 27th. At which point we will probably find a short-term bottom at or around 1074 S&P, before rebounding back to1200's. Then over a couple of months the market will peak and sag again, not reaching the current highs for quite a long time.

    Michael I think you are to something here with predicting turning points in the market. Well done.

    Feb 11 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting The Stock Market Crash Of 2011 [View article]
    "Our politicians will suggest that a recession is avoidable but that is what politicians do. They know better - at least some of them do -and they will simply put the blame for the recession on the other side of the aisle or with the President or wherever they decide to put the blame to get it off their own shoulders. That is the nature of politicians. It doesn't change a thing - we are still going into a recession."

    My wife and I have been discussing this point a lot lately. She pointed out that Obama may be preparing to pin the blame on the Republicans by proposing conditions on the sequestration deal, namely additional tax hikes. And the Republicans will be prepared to blame Obama, insisting that he own this economy. I think many within government are aware of the situation at hand. This is why the media has reached a fever pitch of enthusiasm, why the president is warning of dire consequences if the sequester should be enacted, why insiders are selling like crazy, and why retail investors have become complacent. The turbulence and the positioning is becoming apparent.
    Feb 10 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting The Stock Market Crash Of 2011 [View article]
    "There will be times when you are making money hand over fist. Just know that it will soon come to an end. There are also times when everything you do is wrong. Again, just know that this too, will soon come to an end."

    This has pretty much been my short investment career in a nutshell. I needn't commit this to memory because it is branded into my psyche.

    "They become cocky and irrationally risk seeking when on a winning streak."

    Doesn't this seem to be the character of the market, the media, and the majority of investors at this moment in time.

    I can see now, after reading this article, why you thought I could be just taking your ideas and slapping the premonition label upon it with a bold prediction for Valentine's day. I knew the time for the market crash would come as you stated eloquently in this article, I just didn't know when. The conditions have been ripe for this for some time now, as John Hussman, you, and others on Seeking Alpha have pointed out. But due to the distortions of QE this process has been dragged out, making it difficult to know the right time to prepare for an end to this cyclical bull market.

    That is where my premonition comes in. I've been patiently waiting since late 2011 for the moment to appear. When I asked when, my intuition told me to wait—so I did.

    Finally, my intuition alerted me in mid-December we would have one final surge following the fiscal cliff and in February on or around Valentine's day the s*&t will hit the fan.

    So I like you have been expecting a crash in the markets for the reasons you and others have stated. Timing is always the big question: when? This, or so we will see, is where intuition is quite useful.

    I think that between February 14th and February 27th there will be significant movements in the market, which will culminate in a crash that takes us down to around 1074 S&P. This will be followed by a rebound off those lows to retrace into 1200's territory before sagging once again and retesting the 1074 area. After that I see a long flat market not reaching the highs in the 1500's stretching out for quite awhile.

    Thank you Joseph.
    Feb 10 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    "Once the February economic numbers start to roll in, the market will finally confirm the declining economy."

    I think you're right about this Stephen. This is the catalyst that will finally break the snow laden limb that the market is hanging upon. I write about this here in an instablog:
    Feb 8 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Spain Haunt Dow 14,000? [View article]
    I thought about following myself but I couldn't bring myself to do it.
    Feb 8 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Spain Haunt Dow 14,000? [View article]
    My instablog has my most recent thoughts on the Valentine's day crash that I've predicted to occur:

    Check it out if the feeling pulls you!
    Feb 8 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment