Seeking Alpha

440978

440978
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 440978's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Will Spain Haunt Dow 14,000? [View article]
    One question Michael: Why do you follow yourself?
    Feb 7 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Spain Haunt Dow 14,000? [View article]
    BTW Michael, I also felt that if my prediction would be correct that your ATAC models would have to begin to see the early turning point, which you have been so good at identifying through your intermarket analysis. When I made the prediction in mid-December, I kept an eye out for your analysis as the rally progressed through the end of January. Although you aren't calling for a crash, I think your evaluation methods are sensitive to detect changes that precede a turn in the market.

    Thank you for your work and I look forward to joining you as a contributor following Valentine's day.
    Feb 7 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Spain Haunt Dow 14,000? [View article]
    But everyone and their dogs are calling for a shallow correction, if that, and maybe not until April. It's somewhere off in the future or so the groupthink goes. For now people seem to be buying every dip with the assumption we will breakout to new highs or test the old ones before we get a substantial pullback. I think it is quite true that "few are prepared for a surprise decline" that will happen soon.

    And according to my premonition from mid-December 2012 that surprise decline will take hold in earnest on or around Valentine's day. We are at the end of the "fool's gold rally" that I called for in mid-December to begin following the fiscal cliff sideshow and are now bumping up against the 1510's ceiling on the S&P.

    What did surprise me is that we actually got a rally that you could genuinely call a fool's gold rally. The sentiment turned so dramatically and money actually starting rushing into the market like a gold rush, premised on the declarations that we were in the early stages of a sustainable recovery. If this doesn't fit the definition of a "fool's gold rally" I don't know what does.

    When the sentiment shifts from early stages of recovery to early stages of recession, a 180 degree shift, despite the Fed's effort to maintain growth and elevated stock prices through QE, the stock market will quickly turn and fall steep and fast.

    Thus far most of my mid-December prediction has come to pass, now one last detail to go...Valentine's day.
    Feb 7 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 14,000: Are You The Sucker? [View article]
    So the Fed is omnipotent? What if the Fed can't keep the economy from contracting despite their intervention? What if the markets realize this and extrapolate that the price of stocks is not justified considering the economy is contracting?

    The Fed can entice investors to chase yield but can they prevent a stock market from crashing due to deteriorating fundamentals? I think investors are overestimating the ability of the Fed to buoy a market, especially considering that they preemptively announced QE3 and 4 while the markets were rallying, rather than using these programs to put a floor under the market.
    Feb 6 06:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insider Selling: It's Baaaack [View article]
    ...and Vix calls.
    Feb 6 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insider Selling: It's Baaaack [View article]
    They selling so they have enough money to buy their sweetheart a nice Valentine's day gift.
    Feb 6 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    It's not a question of whether they're lying or not; it's a question of whether or not earnings will remain so into the immediate and not-too-distant future. Value of companies is determined by the quantifiable potential for future returns on capital, not past earnings. I believe future returns will be diminished from the current reporting.
    Feb 5 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    The prediction spoke for itself. I didn't fabricate it.

    I would tend to agree with you that topping is a process and that it would seem unrealistic that less than two weeks from now we'll have a steep and rapid decline. But it is also worthy of consideration that the conditions are ripe for a rapid and steep selloff. And thus far, 3 out of 4 of my predictions have come to pass, the last being the February 14th crash, which happens to be the most critical prediction.

    We will see.
    Feb 4 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    "Perhaps not the printing but the Fed isn't big enough to fade a high volume sell off. $85 billion is a lot but not nearly enough when people recognize that we are contracting at the same time we approach all time market highs."

    Well said, Joseph. My sentiments exactly. This is one of the follies that market participants and observers are persuaded by: that the market will only turn down once the Fed stops printing and not a moment before.

    Stocks can't remain at their valuations if their profit margins contract due to a contracting economy, whether or not the Fed is printing. Fundamentals will overwhelm this intervention.
    Feb 4 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock fund inflows - combining mutual funds and ETFs - summed to $77.4B in January, according to TrimTabs, smoking the previous record of $53.7B (when else, February 2000). "We increasingly do not like what we see ... Investors are piling into stocks ... while companies are no longer supporting share prices." (uh, UTX just announced a $5.4B repurchase program). [View news story]
    February 14th. Check past comment history for more detail.
    Feb 4 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    I agree with you on the 800 S&P. The first leg down will come on or around Valentine's Day and take us swiftly toward 1074, probably by month's end or into early March. The second leg down will come about two months or so afterward, not quite sure about that, and take us ultimately to about 800.

    Stephen I strongly believe you will be vindicated.

    "The happiness, the smugness, the massive misinformation campaign. They look into the camera and they lie to you."

    This reaction in the media and policy makers and investors only fortifies my conviction that my original call for a crash on or around February 14th that I made back in mid-December using the ability of claircognizance and clairvoyance.

    It reminds me of the reaction in 2008 when the president and the Fed were denying any recession and that any problem in the financial system was containable. The more fervently they celebrate the more worried I'd become if I was long the stock market.

    I've recently had conversations with friends and acquaintances, who are invested fully in stocks now, that quote the media and this spin that is so rampant at the moment as justification for their allocation. Many have altered their portfolios to join the herd and enter the market as if all risks are behind us. I've given my opinion in certain instances but the power of the herd is like an avalanche. When it reverses it will be quick and unrelenting.

    Many will be stunned, and many will be angry. I think this is not a very good situation for this country. I hope for the best and hope the suffering for all of society is bearable.
    Feb 4 12:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment was "off the charts" bullish in the high 80s, what is it now? The index rises to the unheard of level of 104.25, meaning the average respondent is now leveraged long. The most bearish manager is 60% net long - the most bullish position for the most bearish respondent ever. [View news story]
    1513 blow off top.
    Feb 2 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment was "off the charts" bullish in the high 80s, what is it now? The index rises to the unheard of level of 104.25, meaning the average respondent is now leveraged long. The most bearish manager is 60% net long - the most bullish position for the most bearish respondent ever. [View news story]
    Yes!
    Feb 2 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment was "off the charts" bullish in the high 80s, what is it now? The index rises to the unheard of level of 104.25, meaning the average respondent is now leveraged long. The most bearish manager is 60% net long - the most bullish position for the most bearish respondent ever. [View news story]
    ...Or a disconnect between real economic fundamentals and stock prices and QE that is no longer effectively halting a recession and a contraction in profit margins. Added to that the excess of margin debt coupled with prices near all-time highs in the face of a recession that is now underway. The great gap between the perception of a nascent recovery and the reality of a contracting economy will quickly close and stock prices will recalibrate to reflect reality.

    The loss of confidence in QE will lead these markets to selloff steeply and quickly.
    Feb 2 12:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment was "off the charts" bullish in the high 80s, what is it now? The index rises to the unheard of level of 104.25, meaning the average respondent is now leveraged long. The most bearish manager is 60% net long - the most bullish position for the most bearish respondent ever. [View news story]
    This is correct.

    The media's response is the most alarming. You'd think we have hit escape velocity and are now entering the most exuberant growth phase in U.S. history. It will be quite shocking for so many when this doesn't come to pass but is actually the opposite outcome.

    Panic. Shock. Anger.
    Feb 2 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
159 Comments
115 Likes