Seeking Alpha

440978

440978
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 440978's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • More Signs Of Froth [View article]
    That's just your opinion.
    Feb 12 09:32 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Online sales jumped 24.3% this Black Friday. Department stores led the way with a 59% jump in online sales. Stronger than expected demand suggests there may be a disconnect between what consumers tell pollsters and how they actually spend.  [View news story]
    Steep discounts increase sales. This alone will not save the American economy. The overall outlook of macroeconomic realities remains unchanged and the stock market will soon reflect that reality. Then sales will surely contract going forward as many people base their discretionary spending according to the value of their portfolios.
    Nov 26 04:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Wal-Mart's Evil Image Deserved? [View article]
    "And Wal-Mart offers its employees the ability to buy stock at a discount, matching up to 15% of the first $1,800 in stock purchased."

    This statement really made me laugh. Wal-mart employees can barely afford rent and food, let alone buying stock.
    Nov 23 12:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Warming Will Push Gold Higher [View article]
    Global warming has been a documented phenomena since the 1930's first studied by a Norwegian scientist. In the 1990's climatologists were saying a mountain of evidence exists and predicted and modeled exactly what we are witnessing today. Where they've been wrong, regretfully, is that they believed through their modeling that these type of events probably wouldn't start manifesting until mid 21st century.

    Global warming is changing the climate, which is altering weather patterns—this is not belief, like Santa Claus or Tooth Fairy as so many fools assert, but evidenced-based conclusions.
    Nov 2 09:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
    "If James advocated that advice [being in 100% cash], rather than shorting the market outright, he (and those who followed his ideas) would feel a lot better today."

    He did advocate being 100% cash!
    Apr 2 05:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Line Sales And Profit Growth Falter As The Dow Approaches All Time Highs [View article]
    I echo tampat in his praise of this thorough article, Joseph.

    Is this the most aggressive backstopping yet? It seems to me that this market could have and should have fallen apart on several occasions over the past several weeks but still has not. As you've pointed out in your previous articles it is beyond the Fed's capability to corner a market when investors run for the exits. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    Mar 1 07:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Q4 GDP: Defense spending falls 22% - the biggest drop in 40 years - leading real federal spending -15%. State/local spending -0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures +2.2% vs. 1.6% in Q3. Nonresidential fixed investment +8.4% vs. +1.8%. Stock futures dipped and then bounced on the soft print. as traders look at calendars and realize we're halfway to 2013 Q2. (full report[View news story]
    Pump is being primed, making the market ripe for a steep and rapid selloff on or around February 14th.
    Jan 30 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    I made the following prediction in mid-December, as it can be found in my comment history, but I will repeat it here:

    On or around February 14th (Valentine's day) the market will have a steep sell-off and the Vix will spike. I made this prediction prior to the government announcing that they would need to raise the debt ceiling between February 15th and March 1st. I, also, predicted a "resolution" of the fiscal cliff that would result in a rally, which I called a "fool's gold rally." Thus far, my predictions have played out precisely.

    In addition to these predictions, I am disclosing that at the end of January, on or around the 31st, I will begin to take short positions: Vix calls, sell leaps, and IWM puts.

    This came to me through psychic premonition and closely following the currents of the market, such as reading articles like Cam's and others. The more information that is available the better the psychic prediction.

    I am still not completely certain of a bottom for the market of this steep selloff or when it will conclude but I have on several occasions received an impression that the S&P will bottom around 1074. But this still doesn't strike me with certainty as the aforementioned premonitions did.
    Jan 14 06:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Sober Second Thoughts During The Party [View article]
    My prediction is that we see a precipitous decline in the value of stocks around or on Valentine's day. Vix will rocket higher and stocks will be much lower—no particular target as of yet. The selloff will be deep and quick, as opposed to a gradual grind lower.

    The fiscal cliff was never going to be the cause of a stock market crash. But complacency will be. The general narrative is that growth has returned to the U.S. and housing is recovering, Europe has bottomed, Asia is picking up growth, equities are the only investment with acceptable yield, and so on. But the true cause of the rally since 2009, which has been Fed intervention, is losing its effectiveness. The realization that the economy is weakening despite this intervention will be the catalyst for a significant selloff.
    Jan 2 05:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Why Monster Stock Rally 2012 Is Right Around The Corner [View article]
    Vote Romney 2012: he'll stop financial corruption! Because Republicans are capitalists and Dems are socialists. Everybody knows this. Obama, or should I say "Ospama," resembles all of the above. Duh! Why? Because he's a socialist. Glenn Beck says so every night. Duh!

    We wouldn't be in this mess if Obama wasn't elected. We would have had a V-shaped recovery, tens of millions of jobs created because we wouldn't have had all these job killing regulations, while suffocating under his socialist regime.

    If George W. Bush's term had been extended just a few more months, everything would have worked out and our country would be basking in prosperity by now. All these socialist liberals are dragging this country down. You can't even by a gallon of milk anymore without some job killing regulation increasing the price by $ .10 and putting farmers out of business. Thank you Osocialistbama!
    Aug 14 11:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odds Of Recession With Romney? Who Knows! [View article]
    Well I consider President Obama to be a fraud with no integrity when it comes to his dishonest explanations of the economy.
    He is pure, populist grandstanding. When challenged on the facts and issues he dissolves into his hypocrisy. He is a liar and a coward who won't really address the issues.

    Well I consider Mitt Romney to be a fraud with no integrity when it comes to his dishonest explanations of immigration, trade, monetary policy, his personal income, his record as a governor, his record on health care, etc.
    He is pure, populist grandstanding. When challenged on the facts and issues he dissolves into his hypocrisy. He is a liar and a coward who wont really address the issues.

    Well I consider George W. Bush to be a fraud with no integrity when it comes to his dishonest explanations of war, terrorism, economy, see Romney's list, etc.
    He is pure, populist grandstanding. When challenged on the facts and issues he dissolves into his hypocrisy. He is a liar and a coward who wont really address the issues

    Well I consider Bill Clinton...
    Well I consider George H.W. Bush...
    Well I consider Ronald Reagan...
    Aug 14 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple On The Verge Of A 2008-Style Crash? [View article]
    I had been a Bull for awhile but got traded to the Bears in August.
    Nov 25 12:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors who fled in fear over potential tax increases from the fiscal cliff have barely broken a sweat over spending cuts only two weeks away, as no one wants to sell again on an armageddon story only to watch stocks climb to new highs. But investors expecting a deal may underestimate the potential impact; with some seeking an excuse to sell after the run-up, failure to reach a deal is "by a long stretch" the top candidate to prompt a real pullback. [View news story]
    This is an observation with which I strongly agree. The lawsuit against S&P was a preemptive threat from the U.S. government. They [US officials] know how fragile the markets are at the moment and know that such a move by the rating's agencies would crush a market teetering on the edge. With a global recession intensifying, companies like Wal-mart and Whole Foods, who happen to sell to very different demographics, stating extreme weakness in sales, industrial production contracting, and the list goes on, a rating downgrade would only add to the heavy load that the market is carrying up the mountain peak of all time highs.

    There will be a slip up by the end of the month. Those longs that are on the fence are have the doubts sewn into their minds that this so called recovery is really a recession. Once these neutral longs start selling, and bears start short-selling in earnest, and bullish longs capitulate as each dip bought is breached, a crash in equity prices will unfold quickly.
    Feb 16 07:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart (WMT -3.1%) responds to a leaked internal memo indicating February sales are weak by noting to CNBC that an executive was issuing an opinion rather than any official company data. While true, the alarm bells are still ringing. The Wal-Mart VP of finance and logistics on February: "The worst start to a month I have seen in my ~7 years with the company." Look for the topic to come up during the firm's earnings conference call on February 21. [View news story]
    If economic contraction in Japan and Eurozone and U.S. doesn't cause this market to go down why would weak sales at Wal Mart?
    Feb 15 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 14,000: Are You The Sucker? [View article]
    So the Fed is omnipotent? What if the Fed can't keep the economy from contracting despite their intervention? What if the markets realize this and extrapolate that the price of stocks is not justified considering the economy is contracting?

    The Fed can entice investors to chase yield but can they prevent a stock market from crashing due to deteriorating fundamentals? I think investors are overestimating the ability of the Fed to buoy a market, especially considering that they preemptively announced QE3 and 4 while the markets were rallying, rather than using these programs to put a floor under the market.
    Feb 6 06:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
159 Comments
115 Likes