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  • Tanzania: Our Case For Investment [View article]
    Good article. Orca Exploration, a Canadian listed Company, supplies 90% of Tanzania natural gas and is almost a pure play on this country. Have had trouble with delayed payment by Tanesco but the growth potential for nat gas supply in Tanzania is very strong once these issues are resolved. See comments below...

    TER: What are some other names that you have positions in?

    RA: One that is farther afield is Orca Exploration Group Inc. (ORC-A:TSX.V; ORC-B:TSX.V). The company produces more than 90% of Tanzania's natural gas, about half of which is used to produce power. The stock has been stuck in the CA$3/share range for the longest time as Tanzania struggles with corruption issues. And the national utility, TANESCO (Tanzania Electric Supply Co. Ltd.), has not been meeting its obligations to Orca and other companies on a timely basis, even though things have improved since the World Bank got involved more than a year ago.

    Orca is also not producing at the levels the market expected by now, but a pipeline slated for completion years ago is finally going to be commissioned in a few months. Hopefully, that pipeline will deliver enough Orca natural gas to help alleviate the severe brownouts Tanzania has experienced for many years.

    In the meantime, Orca is remarkably cheap. The company has more than US$60M cash and is owed more than US$60M by TANESCO and has no debt—there's about CA$2.50/share of net working capital, including amounts we expect Orca to ultimately collect from TANESCO. You're nearly getting all the reserves for free. And the 2P reserves are worth in excess of CA$11/share according to the company’s third-party engineers.

    TER: Is the company's move into Italy an attempt to mitigate risk in the stock?

    RA: It's an attempt to diversify, and management liked what it saw there.

    TER: Tell us about Orca management and some of its key people.

    RA: Chairman and CEO David Lyons has had a large ownership stake for many years. He spun out Orca from PanOcean Energy Corp., a successful company that ran for many years. Its primary investment was in Gabon, so he knows what it takes to operate in Africa. Lyons ultimately sold PanOcean to Addax Petroleum (AXC:TSX) in 2006. I think that Orca will get sold, too. In November 2014, the company announced that there were unsolicited expressions of interest, either in the entire company or its assets. Something may already be afoot.

    TER: Why hasn't that created more of a run on the stock?

    RA: People are simply scared of Tanzania. A country that does not pay its bills on a timely basis does not sit well with most investors. People pay a premium for safety, and they discount things that they're concerned about. Our job is to determine whether those risks are real. While we don't believe there are material risks here, resolving Orca's issues has taken way longer than we'd thought.

    http://bit.ly/1GCwjav
    May 1, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Bull Market In Gas I See [View article]
    New coverage today from Vic Vallance at Edgecrest....

    Valeura Energy Inc. (VLE-TSX, $0.65)
    Delivering high margin gas growth in Turkey
    BUY RATING
    Target: C$1.20

    (Initiating Coverage)

    · Poised for significant high margin natural gas growth in Turkey. The company has come off a successful campaign in 2014 and is well positioned to accelerate growth via the drill-bit over the next 2 years. The company has been exploiting high margin natural gas plays in Turkey, where the price of gas is in excess of C$10/mcf. Based on our analysis and assuming a modest amount of maintenance capital spent on the company’s currently producing JV lands, we project production to average 1,260 boepd in 2015 (up 10%YoY) and 1,510 boepd in 2016 (up 20%).

    · Bread and butter drilling adds 5-10% per annum production growth. The company’s JV lands (VLE-40% non-operated interest) provide a source of growth from the development of shallow and tight gas. The company has amassed a sizeable inventory of drilling/workover/re-e... candidates to grow production at a rate of 5-10% per annum, utilizing 50-75% of cash flow from production on these lands. This year the company plans to drill gross 4 conventional & 6 vertical tight gas wells on the JV lands, plus complete 12 work overs & 6 re-entry fracs for $9.0 mln net or about 58% of estimated 2015 cash flow.

    · The Banarli block (VLE-100%) could deliver a major step change to the company’s growth profile. Based on the recent drilling success on the JV lands (notably the Gurgen wells) south of Banarli, Valeura plans to pursue higher productivity shallow gas (potential 3-4mmcf/d wells) on trend on the Banarli Block. The company has identified in excess of 15 leads on Banarli from vintage 2D seismic. Valeura plans to commence a 3D seismic survey in late spring and drill up to 3 exploration wells later in the year. Success could result in more than a doubling in production and contributing over $0.40ps in annual cash flow.

    · Funding is not an issue. The company’s 2015 capex program ($18-20 mln) can be funded with cash flow (estimated at $15.6 mln) and cash on hand (working capital of $10mln). Also the company has zero debt.

    · The shares trade at compelling valuation metrics. The shares trade at an EV/DACF multiple of 1.8 x our 2015 forecast and 1.4 x our 2016 forecast. Furthermore, the shares trade at only 41% of our 2P NAVPS. We have set a target price of $1.20 based on 75% of our 2P NAVPS and we are initiating coverage of Valeura with a BUY recommendation.

    Investment Thesis

    Valeura is an E&P company focused on growing natural gas production in Turkey. The company holds interests ranging from 15% to 100% in 21 leases and licences in Turkey or 0.42 million net acres. The company has planned an active drilling program this year to be funded with cash flow and cash. The company has no debt.
    Apr 8, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Bull Market In Gas I See [View article]
    New Coverage - Dundee Securities

    VALEURA ENERGY – VLE (BUY, TARGET C$0.90, SPECULATIVE RISK)

    David Dudlyke ddudlyke@dundeecapital...

    Jessica Lindskog jlindskog@dundeecapita...

    Investment Thesis

    In a $50 oil world, it is refreshing to find realisations and netbacks of US$53/boe and US$41/boe respectively! As a gas producer onshore Turkey, Valeura enjoys such economics by virtue of BOTAS' recent 9% uplift in Turkey’s domestic gas sales reference pricing.

    Thus, in contrast to some of its oil-led peers, Valeura Energy has a fully funded capital program that should deliver up to 15% y-o-y production growth by our estimates and, in tandem, provides investors with a hedge against sustained oil price weakness.

    Operationally, recent shallow, conventional exploration success on JV acreage in Turkey's Thrace basin has prompted management to pursue a new shallow gas exploration strategy on its 100%-operated Banarli licence, which immediately offsets these recent discoveries.

    Should 3D seismic confirm the extension of the same shallow play concept onto Banarli and subsequent exploration wells prove successful, Valeura could enjoy a swift and material step-change in reserves, production and cashflow, given the exceptional recycle ratios offered and its 100% stake in Banarli.

    Recommendation & Target

    We resume coverage of Valeura Energy with a BUY recommendation and a C$0.90/share target price, set in line with our 'core' 2P NAV plus net cash valuation of C$0.86/share.

    Valuation

    We value Valeura’s existing 1P and 2P reserves of 1.6 mmboe and 5.3 mmboe at C$0.55/share and C$0.82/share respectively, the latter providing nearly 70% implied upside to the current market valuation.

    Inclusive of net cash less G&A, we derive a ‘core’ 2P NAV of C$0.86/share.
    Whilst risked exploration upside adds a further C$1.26/share by our estimates, for an overall ‘risked’ NAV of C$2.12/share, the market and we alike attach no value in our current valuation.

    New Shallow, Conventional Strategy For 100% Banarli License

    Following exploration success which yielded three shallow, conventional gas discoveries (Gurgen-1, Tavanli-1 and Biyikali-2) on JV acreage (VLE: WI 40%) within the sparsely drilled Osmanli area of the Thrace Basin, Valeura plans to pursue a new shallow, conventional strategy on the adjacent Banarli License.
    The most significant discovery, Gurgen-1, encountered 47 metres of high-quality net pay within the shallow Osmancik formation. With just 12 metres perforated, the well initially tested at 4.0 mmcf/d without recourse to fraccing.

    Gurgen-2, the first of two appraisal wells on this gas discovery encountered similar high-quality net pay (52m, average porosity 17%) and is producing at an average restricted rate of 3.0 mmcf/d, again without recourse to fraccing.

    Such results compare closely with the Gurgen-1 discovery well which has now produced at an average restricted rate of 3.1 mmcf/d for over two months, indicating the potential repeatability of this newly identified shallow play-type within the Osmancik formation.

    Furthermore, plenty of recompletion potential exists in both wells to add/extend well productivity.

    These results bode well for Valeura's 100%-operated Banarli License, situated ca. 500 m immediately north of the Gurgen discovery. Banarli thus becomes a key 2015 focal point - 3D seismic indicates that this Osmancik play type could extend onto this licence and management intends to acquire 140 km of 3D seismic on the southern part of the license and drill up to three exploration wells in 2015.
    Should these wells and the play concept prove successful, Valeura could enjoy a swift and material step-change in production and cashflow, given the exceptional recycle ratios offered and its 100% stake in Banarli.

    Converting Banarli License Restarts The Clock

    Valeura has applied to convert the Banarli licence to Turkey's new licencing regime, which will increase the initial term of the licence to five years, re-start the clock on the drilling commitment timing (thus delaying the required spud date to late 2015) and re-align the licence boundaries to the new grid system. Given surrounding licenses have recently been 'reset', Valeura expects Banarli to be converted during 1Q15.

    Extremely Attractive Economics - Turkish Gas Pricing Protects 2015 Cashflow

    Due to strong gas prices (BOTAS reference pricing: $10.62/mcf) and excellent fiscal terms, Valeura enjoys high realisations and netbacks which average US$53/boe and US$41/boe respectively - clearly welcome news in a $50/bbl oil price environment.

    It should be noted that such gas pricing is set annually, although a couple of positive semi-annual adjustments occurred within the last four years. Also, Turkey's energy minister recently opined that, despite the collapse in oil prices post BOTAS' price review of last October, no similar reduction in Turkish gas prices should be expected.

    The economics of such wells are thus extremely attractive - using Gurgen-1’s IP60 rate of 3.1 mmcf/d, and a 4Q14E operating netback of ca. $49/boe, these wells pay out the $1.2MM drill, tie-in, completion costs in just 47 days – providing a very attractive rate of return and recycle ratio.

    Fully Funded 2015 Program Provides Up To 15% Production Growth

    We believe Valeura will be able to fully fund its proposed 2015 capital program of C$19-22 mm (C$8-9 mm allocated to TBNG JV lands/$11-12.5 mm allocated to Banarli) with operating cashflow (C$17.5 mm) and cash on hand (YE14 C$6.0 mm). Production is forecast to increase 10-15% y-o-y to 1,300 boepd.

    Upcoming Catalysts:

    • Gurgen-3 results (drilling ahead)
    • Banarli licence conversion (1Q15)
    • Securing farm-out partner at Banarli (to target deeper horizons)
    • 2014 reserve report (1Q15)
    Feb 5, 2015. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Valeura Energy Insider Doubles Down [View article]
    New Coverage - Dundee Securities

    VALEURA ENERGY – VLE (BUY, TARGET C$0.90, SPECULATIVE RISK)

    David Dudlyke ddudlyke@dundeecapital...

    Jessica Lindskog jlindskog@dundeecapita...

    Investment Thesis

    In a $50 oil world, it is refreshing to find realisations and netbacks of US$53/boe and US$41/boe respectively! As a gas producer onshore Turkey, Valeura enjoys such economics by virtue of BOTAS' recent 9% uplift in Turkey’s domestic gas sales reference pricing.

    Thus, in contrast to some of its oil-led peers, Valeura Energy has a fully funded capital program that should deliver up to 15% y-o-y production growth by our estimates and, in tandem, provides investors with a hedge against sustained oil price weakness.

    Operationally, recent shallow, conventional exploration success on JV acreage in Turkey's Thrace basin has prompted management to pursue a new shallow gas exploration strategy on its 100%-operated Banarli licence, which immediately offsets these recent discoveries.

    Should 3D seismic confirm the extension of the same shallow play concept onto Banarli and subsequent exploration wells prove successful, Valeura could enjoy a swift and material step-change in reserves, production and cashflow, given the exceptional recycle ratios offered and its 100% stake in Banarli.

    Recommendation & Target

    We resume coverage of Valeura Energy with a BUY recommendation and a C$0.90/share target price, set in line with our 'core' 2P NAV plus net cash valuation of C$0.86/share.

    Valuation

    We value Valeura’s existing 1P and 2P reserves of 1.6 mmboe and 5.3 mmboe at C$0.55/share and C$0.82/share respectively, the latter providing nearly 70% implied upside to the current market valuation.

    Inclusive of net cash less G&A, we derive a ‘core’ 2P NAV of C$0.86/share.
    Whilst risked exploration upside adds a further C$1.26/share by our estimates, for an overall ‘risked’ NAV of C$2.12/share, the market and we alike attach no value in our current valuation.

    New Shallow, Conventional Strategy For 100% Banarli License

    Following exploration success which yielded three shallow, conventional gas discoveries (Gurgen-1, Tavanli-1 and Biyikali-2) on JV acreage (VLE: WI 40%) within the sparsely drilled Osmanli area of the Thrace Basin, Valeura plans to pursue a new shallow, conventional strategy on the adjacent Banarli License.
    The most significant discovery, Gurgen-1, encountered 47 metres of high-quality net pay within the shallow Osmancik formation. With just 12 metres perforated, the well initially tested at 4.0 mmcf/d without recourse to fraccing.

    Gurgen-2, the first of two appraisal wells on this gas discovery encountered similar high-quality net pay (52m, average porosity 17%) and is producing at an average restricted rate of 3.0 mmcf/d, again without recourse to fraccing.

    Such results compare closely with the Gurgen-1 discovery well which has now produced at an average restricted rate of 3.1 mmcf/d for over two months, indicating the potential repeatability of this newly identified shallow play-type within the Osmancik formation.

    Furthermore, plenty of recompletion potential exists in both wells to add/extend well productivity.

    These results bode well for Valeura's 100%-operated Banarli License, situated ca. 500 m immediately north of the Gurgen discovery. Banarli thus becomes a key 2015 focal point - 3D seismic indicates that this Osmancik play type could extend onto this licence and management intends to acquire 140 km of 3D seismic on the southern part of the license and drill up to three exploration wells in 2015.
    Should these wells and the play concept prove successful, Valeura could enjoy a swift and material step-change in production and cashflow, given the exceptional recycle ratios offered and its 100% stake in Banarli.

    Converting Banarli License Restarts The Clock

    Valeura has applied to convert the Banarli licence to Turkey's new licencing regime, which will increase the initial term of the licence to five years, re-start the clock on the drilling commitment timing (thus delaying the required spud date to late 2015) and re-align the licence boundaries to the new grid system. Given surrounding licenses have recently been 'reset', Valeura expects Banarli to be converted during 1Q15.

    Extremely Attractive Economics - Turkish Gas Pricing Protects 2015 Cashflow

    Due to strong gas prices (BOTAS reference pricing: $10.62/mcf) and excellent fiscal terms, Valeura enjoys high realisations and netbacks which average US$53/boe and US$41/boe respectively - clearly welcome news in a $50/bbl oil price environment.

    It should be noted that such gas pricing is set annually, although a couple of positive semi-annual adjustments occurred within the last four years. Also, Turkey's energy minister recently opined that, despite the collapse in oil prices post BOTAS' price review of last October, no similar reduction in Turkish gas prices should be expected.

    The economics of such wells are thus extremely attractive - using Gurgen-1’s IP60 rate of 3.1 mmcf/d, and a 4Q14E operating netback of ca. $49/boe, these wells pay out the $1.2MM drill, tie-in, completion costs in just 47 days – providing a very attractive rate of return and recycle ratio.

    Fully Funded 2015 Program Provides Up To 15% Production Growth

    We believe Valeura will be able to fully fund its proposed 2015 capital program of C$19-22 mm (C$8-9 mm allocated to TBNG JV lands/$11-12.5 mm allocated to Banarli) with operating cashflow (C$17.5 mm) and cash on hand (YE14 C$6.0 mm). Production is forecast to increase 10-15% y-o-y to 1,300 boepd.

    Upcoming Catalysts:

    • Gurgen-3 results (drilling ahead)
    • Banarli licence conversion (1Q15)
    • Securing farm-out partner at Banarli (to target deeper horizons)
    • 2014 reserve report (1Q15)
    Feb 5, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Could Cause Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
    Increased coal to gas switching will help natural gas as well.

    Bernstein research: Utility demand growth seen supporting gas prices into 2020

    Friday, January 23, 2015 2:37 PM ET

    Natural gas prices will struggle in the first half of 2015 but could recover in the back half of the year as utility natural gas consumption will climb markedly as a result of coal-to-gas switching and natural gas production will slow, Bernstein analysts said in a Jan. 22 note.

    Based on its estimate for a natural gas forward price average of $3.11/MMBtu in 2015, consumption for electric generation will climb more than 1.8 Bcf/d in the year as coal-to-gas switching is reflected by markedly lower 2015 gas prices. Utility gas consumption will rise by an estimated 3.6 Bcf/d with the addition of coal plant retirements as the EPA's Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, or MATS, come into effect on April 16, Bernstein analysts said.

    On the other hand, the analysts expect the growth in natural gas production to slow, particularly in the second half of the year, as rig count reductions begin slowing associated gas growth, which currently represents 22% of U.S. gas production, according to the report.

    Dry gas production is expected to remain roughly flat, leading to an overall growth of about 3 Bcf/d or less for the year, down from more than 4 Bcf/d of growth in 2014 and less than the anticipated demand growth, the analysts said.

    Coal-to-gas switching will reverse over the next five years as the price of natural gas recovers, while demand is seen rising through 2020 on coal plant retirements, a growth in power demand and pending regulations of CO2 emissions from existing power plants, which could drive a shift from coal- to gas-fired generation in the final years of the decade.

    In the period from 2015 through 2020, MATS will drive the retirement of about 46 GW of coal-fired capacity generating about 173 MWh annually, according to the report. This will result in a reduction in utility consumption of eastern coal by about 55 million tons and 32 million tons of western coal from 2014 through 2020, the analysis found.

    Should this entire loss of coal-fired generation be replaced by gas-fired generation, utility gas burn would climb by about 3.7 Bcf/d through the period, the analysts said.

    Challenges to MATS are being reviewed by the Supreme Court, and should the EPA withdraw MATS, coal-fired power plants would still be required to comply with the EPA's Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, which sets limits on power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxides.

    CSAPR will initially target SO2 and NOx emissions in 2015 with more stringent targets coming into play in 2017.

    Should the EPA withdraw MATS, even with compliance to CSAPR, a total of 48 GW of coal-fired capacity that would have been retired under MATS could remain active, the analysts said. However, in 2017 with more stringent limits on SO2 and NOx emissions under CSAPR, only 37 GW of coal-fired capacity would remain. About 12% of the U.S. coal-fired fleet would escape retirement, the analysts said.

    Growth in power demand will also drive an increase in gas consumption from 2014 through 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a 1.2% per year growth in power demand from 2014 through 2020 that under Bernstein's analysis would increase utilities' use of gas in power generation by 3.8 Bcf/d through the period.

    Meanwhile, the rapid growth of renewable generation in response to state renewable standards should have a negative impact on natural gas demand.

    To date, 29 states, accounting for about 65% of U.S. electricity demand, have adopted renewable portfolio standards that would require about 7% of U.S. retail electricity sales be supplied by renewable resources in 2014 and about 10% in 2020, the analysts said.

    On track to meet these milestones, Bernstein analysts expect renewable generation growth to continue through 2020.

    To meet 2020 RPS targets the analysts said non-hydro renewable generation must increase by about 140 million MWh from 2014 through 2020. The Bernstein analysis suggests the mandated growth in renewable generation will cut utility gas use for power generation by 2.0 Bcf/d from 2014 through 2020.
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Could Cause Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
    This will help a lot as well...

    40% Drop in Cdn Drilling Expected in 2015

    Oil Drillers Buckling In as Prices Decline


    Thursday, 22 Jan 2015

    41% drop in operating days projected;
    Up to 23,000 jobs threatened

    CALGARY, AB: The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors (CAODC) issued an updated drilling activity forecast today reflecting the significant changes in commodity prices since the summer of 2014. CAODC is forecasting that the depressed price of oil and natural gas will adversely affect the number of active drilling rigs in service, resulting in an industry-wide slowdown and employment losses.

    Click here to view the full updated drilling and employment forecast.

    CAODC issued its original 2015 drilling activity forecast on November 20, 2014 with an assumption of oil (WTI) at $85.00/bbl (USD). The updated forecast uses an assumption of WTI at $55.00/bbl (USD)

    The number of active drilling rigs in service is expected to decline from an average of 370 per day in 2014 to 203 in 2015 (-41 per cent). Fleet utilization is also expected to drop from 46 per cent in 2014 to 26 per cent in 2015.

    “The new reality of $55 oil means that the entire industry will hurt for a period, and drillers and service rig contractors are not immune to that,” said CAODC President, Mark Scholz. “We have been through rough patches before and come out strong on the other end, and I’m confident that we will do that again, but right now, that’s going to involve buckling in.”

    CAODC also projects that decreased drilling activity will hurt employment in the oil patch, resulting in the potential loss of approximately 3,400 direct jobs and up to 19,500 indirect jobs relative to 2014. Total net job losses (direct and indirect) could reach as high as 23,000 compared to last year.

    “Times like this are tough not just on contractors, but on their employees as well. If there are not as many drilling rigs working, there will not be as many rig workers on the job. This will have significant adverse effects on indirect employment throughout the economy, well beyond just rig workers.”
    Jan 23, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Bull Market In Gas I See [View article]
    Great report on what is probably the most undervalued E&P company in the world given the fundamentals.
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Epsilon Energy: The Latest Developments Support Its Multibagger Potential [View article]
    This would be a great play if the Marcellus E&P's stopped their manic drilling at any price. Checked Marcellus pricing on natural gas this morning & it was $1.39/mcf. Crazy to take such a great low cost resource and give it away at prices like that. Imagine what EPS would be worth if Marcellus gas pricing looked to be sustainable at > $5 mcf.
    Jan 16, 2015. 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Could Cause Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
    Good research piece. Seems most if not all are ignoring this potential at the moment. Natural gas supply easing could come in early 2016 just as we get demand growth from first LNG exports, increasing Mexican imports and more coal/nuclear generation retirements.
    Jan 15, 2015. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Paper Ltd. - A Misunderstood, Unfollowed Gem With Multiple Catalysts In Place [View article]
    Munich - do you still hold your investment/follow Fortress Paper?
    Nov 10, 2014. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pan Orient: The Gross Undervaluation Is Not Rocket Science [View article]
    Jennings recently initiated (see below). Many catalysts potentially on the way.

    PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP.
    INITIATING COVERAGE
    A YEAR OF CATALYSTS
     Management: Pan Orient is led by Jeff Chisolm, a Geophysicist with a successful exploration track record in the international arena.
     Catalysts: POE is expected to have catalysts from each of its three regions, including: 1) Thailand – high impact exploration upside from the A-North prospect, expected to spud in Q3/14; 2) Indonesia – where a farm-out process is expected to be concluded in the next few months and could see several wells drilled as early as the fourth quarter of 2014; 3) Canada – The SAGD demonstration pilot at Sawn Lake is expected to see initial results in early Q3/14, and could be a catalyst for monetization.
     Clean Balance Sheet: Pan Orient exited 2013 with $45.6 million of positive working capital. Cash flow from Thailand is expected to more than cover a base 2014 capital spending program of around $10.0 to $15.0 million.
     Value: Pan Orient currently trades close to its base net asset value ($1.79/sh), which only includes its 2P Thai reserves and positive working capital position. This strong backstop provides an excellent risk/reward opportunity given the large exploration upside.
     Primary Risks: The primary risks include commodity price volatility, regulatory timing, drilling, and failure to secure a suitable farm-out partner.
    Recommendation
    We are initiating coverage on Pan Orient Energy Corp. with a BUY recommendation and 12-month target price of C$3.75 per share.
    Valuation Methodology
    The target price is derived from our base net asset value of $1.79/share, plus 20% of our risked exploration upside of $9.62/share.
    Jun 13, 2014. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look No Further: Chinook Energy Is The Real Deal From The International Energy Patch [View article]
    Is it Tuscany Drilling?
    Jun 1, 2014. 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy: Merger Drama Could Lead To Upside [View article]
    Nice summary of the investment scenario here. Stronger natural gas and NGL pricing helps support the current share price as well.
    Apr 16, 2014. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rapid Growth Story At Iteris Is Only Just Beginning [View article]
    ITI should look into buying International Road Dynamics. It trades on the TSX as symbol IRD currently at $0.70 which is 56% of its book value of $1.25. The Company is profitable, debt is not onerous and they have great technology. IRD has revenue of about $43 million with most of its business in the US, South America and China. This Company is an orphan stock in Canada with no analyst coverage.

    http://www.irdinc.com


    International Road Dynamics Inc. (IRD) is a world leader in highway traffic management, operating internationally in the ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) industry.
    With over 30 years of experience, IRD is a multi-discipline company specializing in advanced traffic control, weight enforcement, bridge protection, and toll management technologies.
    IRD's expert engineers design and supply the following ITS systems and products:
    Weight Enforcement
    Data Collection
    Toll Collection
    Bridge Monitoring & Safety
    Access Control & Security
    Highway Traffic Management Systems (HTMS)
    Weigh-In-Motion (WIM) Scales & Sensors
    Traffic Products
    Traffic Safety
    Fleet Telematics
    Service & Maintenance
    IRD has operational installations worldwide with major projects throughout Canada, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, Peru, Uruguay, Mexico, and many other countries.
    Apr 2, 2014. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Paper Ltd. - A Misunderstood, Unfollowed Gem With Multiple Catalysts In Place [View article]
    If a few things go right
    Fortress beginning to reflect the potential for a few things to go right after a constant barrage of negative events. If on the Thurso pulp business:

    * tariffs are reduced somewhat,
    * they are able to bring on a few more cost saving initiatives currently planned
    * DP price moves back to $1000
    * Cdn $ stays low or goes lower

    On the Lanquart side:

    * Swiss franc depreciates somewhat
    * more Durasafe orders are brought online
    * Fortress Optical gets a capacity order

    By 2016 we could have Fortress producing in excess of $30MM EBITDA at both Thurso and Landquart. Valuing Thurso at 6 multiple and Landquart at an 8 multiple puts a value of $420 MM on these 2 businesses. With $75 million in cash (assuming cash neutral til then) and debt of $240 million would result in an equity value of about $17 per share.
    Mar 20, 2014. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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