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Brad Denny

Brad Denny
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  • mREITs: Golden Era Or Dark Age? [View article]
    I'm no historian, so I can't responsibly talk about the "worst administration in history for fixed income retirees" but I would submit, based on very recent history, that the administrations of both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were far worse for all long term investors than that of Barack Obama. Both the Clinton and Bush administrations allowed and encouraged the risk taking inherent in market driven economics devoid of responsible oversight.

    Both enjoyed the benefits of that approach until the pitfalls were revealed. Bush barely made it out the door before the whole edifice nearly collapsed. The Obama administration and the Federal Reserve have done what has been necessary in order to bring our economy back from that brink.

    I am an Obama supporter even though I am 70, a social security recipient and an owner of MReits and MLPs. Obama has the combination of vision, brains and courage required to get the U.S. back on a sound footing. It is in the vital national interest that the Obama administration not be further crippled by those whose only vision (as so eloquently expressed by Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell) has been "to make Obama a one term president."

    Getting the finances of this country back on track is likely to require some sacrifice from all of us who are well enough off to be investing in MReits and MLPs. That is as it should be. The future of the nation is what Obama is and should be concerned about. He was right on the stimulus, right on rescuing the automobile industry and right on not allowing personal attacks from the McConnells and Boehners of the world (to say nothing of the Grover Norquists) to dissuade him from his duty to serve the long term interests of the nation.
    Feb 26 12:19 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To 2014: Don't Sell SPY Without Considering This Indicator [View article]
    Actually Obama has acted forthrightly to rescue the economy from a position of extreme peril and has done so despite the Republican determination to "make Obama a one-term president" even if that came at the expense of the nation.

    Refusing to recognize reality is not a healthy sign on the part of Republicans.
    Dec 31 09:51 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rooseveltian Reflections on Financial Reform [View article]
    The comments above all come down on the side of a business community that operates without regulation and is inherently self correcting. History, common sense, and the fallibility of people (who after all are the ones who operate businesses) make it clear that that is nonsense.

    The notion that what is good for General Bullmoose is good for the nation is patently false. The reverse is much more likely to be true. Business benefits enormously from the prosperity of the people as a whole. The great mistake of the last 40 years has been the sacrifice of that general prosperity in favor of allowing the extreme concentration of wealth which business has chosen to bestow on its executives and directors.

    The shareholders of publicly listed businesses (who are the owners) have not benefited from the vast expanse of wealth generated by business. Directors are compensated to absurd levels for little service and turn around and reward management with equally absurd salary and benefit packages.

    A lack of regulation of business is not the mother of prosperity for the nation. It is an invitation to personal profiteering by business insiders, and it is that opportunity which tilted the scales toward the recent financial excesses and near collapse.
    Mar 7 09:37 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dancing With The Stars And Confirmation Bias [View article]
    I am not a chart or statistics person, but my common sense understanding, based on what I read and observe, is that all the talk about "money printing" is a bunch of nonsense. By buying treasuries and mortgages, the Fed has barely managed to keep the money supply constant, if that.

    The truth is that money supply growth is not growing because investment in real assets, borrowing and lending are in relative hibernation. Both corporations and banks are cash rich but not (relatively speaking) putting that cash to work. Consequently, the multiplier effect of the velocity of money is not creating money supply growth.

    Consequently, the effect of the Fed purchases has not been to encourage inflation and to debase the value of the dollar, but to prevent the Great Recession from tipping over into another Great Depression.

    Perhaps a charts and/or statistics person will illustrate the thesis.

    Brad Denny

    Mar 12 08:31 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: It Just Might Be Time To Load Up On Shares [View article]
    Since the Fed's actions in September are "data dependent" and we don't know exactly what the data will look like to the Fed in Sept., it is apparent that even the experts are "guessing." Following is a "guess" which reflects logic and what appear to be current trends in the data.

    1. Ample demand for the safety of U.S. Treasuries from at home and around the world plus the ongoing decline in Federal deficit projections will allow the Fed to announce that it is going to begin "tapering" its purchase of U.S. Treasuries. My "guess" is that reduction will be in the range of $5-$10 per month.

    2. Because there is no comparable investor pool for mortgage-backed securities from either domestic or foreign investors still hurting from the 2007-2009 collapse in the MBS and derivatives markets, the Fed will maintain its purchases of mortgages in order to sustain the housing recovery which is crucial to the still fragile U.S. recovery.

    This is a view suggested by both logic and current reality, even though I can't supply reams of data or charts to support it. The combination of these actions will be supportive of the ongoing recovery.

    But it is just a guess.

    Brad Denny
    Aug 25 07:07 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon - A Good Candidate For Long-Term Investment [View article]
    I am hardly an expert on the subject, but I am surprised to learn that "Verizon has bought a 45% share of Vodaphone." My understanding its that Verizon bought Vodaphone's 45% share of Verizon Wireless.
    Feb 23 07:07 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: Golden Era Or Dark Age? [View article]
    I also worry about my children and grand kids. None of them are wealthy in a world that is increasingly divided with the wealthy on the one hand and the poor on the other.

    My brief recounting of history should have gone a little farther back, since the tendency to believe that the economy would prosper by making the rich, richer had its modern origins in the trickle-down theories of Arthur Laffer as conveyed to Ronald Reagan. Add Reagan to the list of those who tipped the scales in the direction of the wealthiest among us.

    Experience has proved the trickle-down theory false. The wealth of a nation in which 70% of economic activity is based on consumer spending can only be achieved if the consumer has funds to spend and doesn't have to go bankrupt in the process.

    That is, of course, an over-simplification of our close encounter with financial meltdown. But, in the large picture, it is correct. Our prosperity is dependent on restoring financial health to the vast majority of the people, not improving the fortunes of the already rich.
    Feb 26 02:26 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Downgrade: S&P Could Be the Big Loser [View article]
    Perhaps it is time for a thorough revision of the income tax code designed to eliminate tax evasion and aid job creation. Some will say it will never happen, given the current unbridgeable political differences and destructive political climate.

    But, there is one reason to believe that it might. All of the Bush tax cuts will be automatically eliminated at the end of 2012 unless the Congress votes to retain them and President Obama signs the bill into law with devastating consequences, not only for credit credit ratings, but for the fiscal health of the nation.

    So, the hammer is in place. What is necessary is the political courage to wield it and lead us out of this mess. George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt had such courage. I believe Barack Obama does as well and will provide the political leadership necessary to get it done as the cornerstone of his re-election campaign.
    Aug 7 11:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]

    Superb and timely comment that touches on the grim reality that investors face. Regardless of our level of experience, no investor is immune to the overwhelming flood of information and speculation (not necessarily in that order) that is available and may affect both individual decisions and market direction.

    Given this reality, it would be easy to become totally cynical about the chances for success in the investment world. Your weekly commentary, constantly referencing current economic data and other helpful sources, is a terrific resource and guide for individual investors.

    I saw the Soros story and realized that there was a one in a thousand chance that it was a meaningful event. But the reality is that we are flooded with that kind of attention-getting story every day. Your commentary is a lighthouse in the storm.

    Brad Denny
    Aug 16 08:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "This one's on you Ben," writes David Schawel, not blaming the Chairman for the JPM failure, but for creating an environment in which investors (including banks) have no alternative but to seek out risk to get returns. Another example: The explosion in AUM at mortgage REITs which use high leverage to generate returns. "These will blow up at some point."  [View news story]
    I am with bbro and AggGrow on this one. The financial industry does not take risks for any purpose other than to line the pockets of those who run it. Shareholders don't benefit and the public too often winds up paying the price.
    May 14 04:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Verizon Acquire Vodafone? [View article]
    The headline seems inappropriate, since thrust of the story is not that Verizon might acquire Vodaphone (although that is mentioned as a remote possibility) but that Verizon might acquire Vodaphone's share of Verizon Wireless. Headlines that are not truly representative of the content of the story do a disservice to both the author and the readers.
    Jan 9 05:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Event That Will End The Bull Market [View article]
    Interesting analysis, but is that analysis based on data that are neutral? Are the Fed purchases scheduled to take place on a purely random time schedule? If not, the outcome of the analysis could be affected by a purchase schedule that coincides with days on which performance is above or below average.

    I have no information to bring to bear on this question. But, I would suggest that if Friday is traditionally a day when investors sell and take profits (for instance), market performance on Fridays would suffer. And if the Fed does not make purchases on Fridays, it seems to me that such a schedule would skew the results which are the basis for the conclusion drawn.

    Brad Denny

    Apr 20 10:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Vs. Verizon, Which Is The Better Value? [View article]
    I believe that Vodaphone actually owns 45% of the Verizon Wireless Division, not 45% of Verizon as a whole. The author may have intended to say this, but that is not apparent from the way the article reads.
    Feb 27 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Preview: 5 Things To Watch Next Week [View article]
    I always appreciate the author's well grounded viewpoint, even when I disagree. But the following has left me trying to figure out what it is I am supposed to agree or disagree with.

    "Still, the consensus is that there will be no new easing unless things get much worse for the U.S., especially because its far from clear that QE has done more harm than good."

    Could it be that should have been, more good than harm?" That would seem to be more consistent with the point being made.
    Apr 22 02:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon - Dividend Total Return Analysis [View article]
    My readily available sources tell me that EXC's dividend is 5.3% and that the stock was up .27 cents today or .69% per cent while the market was largely down. I am long EXC.
    Mar 29 04:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment