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arealcondor

arealcondor
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  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Where Is The Stock Headed? [View article]
    Perfect, that makes senses. Thank you. The new tax regime that started in 2014 must have really helped the cash flow.

    Assuming that WTI was $98/bbl in Q1 2014 and average production was 86,937 boe/day the trust would have generated ~$53mm in cash flow in Q1 2014 with the old tax rate of ~40%. To generate the ~$65mm of cash they reported the effective tax rate must have been around 27%.

    That is good news to unitholders.
    May 14, 2014. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Where Is The Stock Headed? [View article]
    Anyone know why BPT distribution's in April 2014 was $64,393,000 (approximately $3.01 per Unit) to Unit holders of record on April 15, 2014 when the Trust only generated $54,095,000 (approximately $2.53 per Unit) for the three months ended March 31st, 2014???

    Doesn't make sense to me...any clarity would be greatly appreciated.
    May 14, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Antero Resources - Nearly 50% Upside From Current Levels, Street Estimates Too Low, Midstream Assets Undervalued [View article]
    Well written article. I think $50k per acre ($5,332mm / 104,000 net acres) for the Utica seems like a high price given the early stages of the play but it could prove to work out. Also in your NAV summary....shouldn't you be subtracting LTD from enterprise value to get to equity value?
    Jan 9, 2014. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: A Sinking Ship With Default Risk [View article]
    Nice write-up MBAvalueinvestor. I fail to see any competitive advantages for this company. Therefore I don't see how one should expect it to earn a respectable return on capital for shareholders. Aggressively growing ones business through expensive acquisitions (based on goodwill levels) usually ends up bad for shareholders.

    For people not familiar with a similar energy service company that was supposed to benefit tremendously from the boom in shale/energy development but instead failed miserably please check out the fate of Poseidon Concepts.

    http://bit.ly/16IKITo
    Aug 25, 2013. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ECA Marcellus Trust - Distribution Falls 35% Sequentially [View article]
    MBAvalue investor, great analysis on ECT. Maybe I missed it in some of the earlier comments but do you have a shopping list of some other potentially mispriced trusts that one would be wise to do their own research on?
    May 14, 2013. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Oil: 5 Questions To Ask Company Management [View article]
    Great article Mr. Schaefer, I have followed your work and it is very helpful. You referenced that their are only a handful of gas names in Canada worth looking at, I was wondering who you think are the best plays? Do you have any thoughts on Paramount (POU). From what I read, they look to be positioned in the sweet spot in Kaybob area and with the new "deep-cut" plant coming online they will benefit greatly from higher liquids pricing and move from a primarily gas producer to a more oil and liquids producer. Thanks
    Dec 10, 2012. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust's Frenzied Sell-Off Got Me Interested [View article]
    I figured out how to share my model (see link below). The cost structure is set and very important to determine what annual distribitions will be. Ive highlighted the cost structure in grey so that you can see how quickly it ramps up. The tables at the bottom of the page are sensitivity tables that show different stock prices based upon different assumptions (oil price, cpi, discount rate).

    http://bit.ly/OCBvV9
    Aug 30, 2012. 06:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust's Frenzied Sell-Off Got Me Interested [View article]
    Can't stress enough the importance of understanding the cost structure associated with this trust. Read the 10k and do the math. If you assume CPI of 2% a year by 2026 the adjusted cost per barrel is $100 going up to $200 by 2036. The trust is capped at 90,000 BOE/Day and does not benefit from any technologies that (1) increase production or (2) reduces costs for the actual operator.

    My model that factors in 90,000 BOE/Day, $110 oil, the stated adjusted costs and taxes, and a 8% discount rate results in a $75 share price.

    The only true varialbe here is the price of oil and if you assume $150 oil for the next 20+ years, the NPV of the payouts are still only $112/share.

    I am more than happy to share my model with people, I just don't know how to post it online.

    I have no position in this stock.

    Aug 30, 2012. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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