VSD

Why I'm Not Buying Crocs or Heelys: A Fast Eddie Story

You may be right that in the longer term, crocs may turn out to be a fad. However, what I was expecting from a site like this is some financial estimation (sizing) on how big a fad this is vs. fads from the past. Razor was a fad as well but it made MOT several billions dollars.

How big a fad is crocs? There are 12 billion feet on this planet. Even if 10% buy into this fad, we are talking 1.2 B feet or 600M pairs. At approximately $35/pair, the market for crocs is $21B. If you give away 50% of this market to competition, we are still talking of a market over $10B. Crocs hs 56% gross margin or $5.6B of gross earnings on this brand alone.

The current valuation of the company at $3.2B does not look that rich anymore does it?