ukdaytrader

Options Trader Friday Outlook: Is Goldman Sachs Stupid, Or Evil?

The little guys can beat the giants, however you need be in and out in relatively short time frames........and ignore nonsense around upgrades, downgrades and other forms of market manipulation that the big boys seem to engage in for their pump and dump trading tactics.

The other thing I'm sure you've noticed is that as a retail trader your transactional costs are probably 200 - 500% (not including the spreads) that of the professionals and this is where they make their money from the little guy.

Could England Be Headed for a Sudden Stop?

This bears a great deal of resemblance to Zimbabwe. A dictator unelected by the people, not a clue about running the finances of a country, inefficient and what could even be classified as corrupt use of public funds, erosion of civil liberties and the rights of the individual and regulation that has killed off most enterprise and small business opportunities. What was once a great nation, destroyed in the space of 10 years by a bunch of dictators looking to fill their own pockets.

Salesforce.com: Absurdly Overvalued

Mr Shah, I think there is a greater chance of you losing your trousers before this stock falls. I take your point on the overvaluation, however this is an angle for most tech fund managers, and to be out of it would not be following the herd instinct, in fact there are managers out there who are now buying into it even now having missed the recent expotential gains. Try explaining to your investors that as a tech fund, your not in CRM !!

Earnings Will Sink Blue Nile's Stock

There are ways to make money as long as you can hold the short and you have enough covered for say a 30% move against you. It did shoot up on earnings today ($64) only to come back down by nearly $4, this volatility was not caused by increased volumes but by market manipulation. This is typical and in in this example had I not had enough to cover my margin I would have lost around $15k at the top v. profit at $60. The manipulation is caused to shake out the weak / inexperienced shorts which also results in rapid movements due to short covering.

On Nov 05 04:07 PM User 330746 wrote:

> This stock will shoot up on earnings.. there will be terms like raised
> outlook and people are still getting married.. ha ha.. and the tight
> float... it will go up. yup.. no one will pull the plug on this fraud
> now.. also look at the overall trend... DOW is again inching towards
> 10K...
>
> sorry folks but shorting this is going to burn u.. in the short team

Earnings Will Sink Blue Nile's Stock

You meant the Nov Puts.

You would have been better just shorting the stock, as the likelihood of such a large correction post November is remote. Typically just because a stock is down or profits are bad, the fund manager won't immediately dispose of the holdings. As someone else pointed out, unwinding large holdings in a relatively illiquid stock can become problematic and are done over a longer time period depending on the trading volume, otherwise they won't be able to sell it.

If I wanted to sell 10m shares but the average daily traded volume was 100k then its not going to happen.

The second thing to consider is that the fund managers holding this, it probably represents a tiny proportion of their overall funds so again they will not be bothered if they dispose of this in November post results or say in 3 months from now. The total cash available for reinvesting will be so tiny that it will become lost in the roundings.

Earnings Will Sink Blue Nile's Stock

Thanks for pointing this one out, since you did, I've made a few 000 on my short position. Keep up the very short, but informative analysis and do let us know if you find any other "muppet" stocks.

ps. Does anyone know where I can get a list of holdings that the "muppet" fund managers listed above have. If their analysis is anything to go buy, it may be worth shorting their entire portfolios.

Also note my terminology of "muppet" comes from a regional variation

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Cramer Does It Again with CIT Call

I actually run a side portfolio doing the opposite of Cramer and guess what, it has done pretty well and its thanks to Cramer that the portfolio has beaten the market. So I actually like the guy and you can learn a lot from him.

Ps Trader85 if you listen to Bloomberg all day, you'll be sure to lose your money, perhaps not as fast as CNBC.

Earnings Will Sink Blue Nile's Stock

Well here is the list of the "muppet" fund managers that own the stock......lets hope they won't be getting a bonus this year.

MORGAN STANLEY INST FD INC-SMALL COMPANY GROWTH PORT
AMERICAN FDS INSURANCE SER-GROWTH FD
SMALLCAP WORLD FUND
BARON GROWTH FUND
FIDELITY MID-CAP STOCK FUND
EVERGREEN OMEGA FUND
Columbia Fds Ser Tr-Columbia Marsico 21st Centry Fd
BARON PARTNERS FUND
ING INV TR-ING/EVERGREEN OMEGA PORTFOLIO
AMERICAN FDS INSURANCE SER-GLOBAL SMALL CAPITALIZATION F

Goldman: Want to Rethink That GDP Downgrade?

I would not be suprised if Goldmans had some shorts on the market prior to their announcement, and then bought in prior to closing last night.........they may want to re-think their downgrade press-release, but I bet they are laughing about next years bonuses !!

Diedrich Coffee: A Web of Misrepresentations

Joe Friday gave some excellent words of advice read here ;

"the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" .. I believe the quote is attributed to Bernard Baruch.

If you are going to short stocks, then make sure you have nerves of steel to ride out manipulation, or else allow for irrational price behaviour and be prepared to sit it out through margin calls.

Earnings Will Sink Blue Nile's Stock

This is great and you are absoutely right. Even ignoring the P/E ratio looking at EBITDA was a mere $18m dollars in 2008 and $24m in 2007, so how this achieves a valuation of $915m for the company is anyones guess. The way to play these type of stocks and we have quite a few in the UK, is to short just sufficient that if the price moves against you by 30% you won't feel it. This way you can hold until the price reflects the true value and any market manipulation wont get you closed out. Unfortuantely you cannot make huge amounts unless you have nerves of steel to ride out the manipulation.

Is a Crash Impending?

The green shoots will turn into tree's ! You only need to look at Tiffany's revenues holding up, they don't sell anything practical and yet they still seem to be selling stuff and yes people are buying. It seems that the very wealthy have nothing to fear, even when they hold probably the most illiquid assets and would be most exposed to a market correction.

The only people that wish this markets to fall is those that missed out on the recent massive rally.

Unemployment is an issue, but bear in mind a large number of US companies sell globally so factor it in, but its not the end of the world some people in the US are unemployed.

Even with internal US consumption all that is happening is a transfer of revenue from the high end retailers to the dollar stores.

People still need to buy things.

Is a Crash Impending?

Your article makes a good read, even though I don't agree with it !

You have contradicted yourself in your own article. One one hand you imply that volumes are not sufficient to maintain the rally and on the other you point to AIG which with very high volumes fell from $55 to around $35 in a few days.

Spain Crumbles

Don't forget that Spain had already learnt its lessons from a Banking crisis some years ago and secondly most Spanish banks don't own large portions of junk securitised debt that the US banks passed on to any bank that would take it.

10 Reasons Not to Buy Apple

I think the article is good at least it provides the other view, particularly where everyone always thinks its a good buy.

However apple are brilliant marketeers. Here in UK (not sure about Europe) every man, dog, woman and cleaner has an iphone. People will move accounts off networks to get an iphone. Further the imac's are also an excellent laptop and with an alternative operating system significantly more stable than windows !

I understand apple can move the ipod to music streaming via the iphone/itunes. This will keep up with the newer competitive entertainment alternatives.e.g. spotify.

The mac stores in the UK , although are selling outlets they are more supposed to be a showroom (hence the higher investment costs) to demo the products - I doubt very much apple will want to have a store in every town in the US and Europe. It is not supposed to be a store like TKmax or Walmart .