elliot_mllr

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  • Energy Transfer Equity Merger With Williams Looks To Be Dead After CFO Jumps Ship  [View article]
    Mr. Alfonso:
    It was quite clear that you were referring to a short term bridge loan and that long term financing was needed to refinance it.. You needn't concern your self about that.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 11, 2016. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Production Is Going To Drop And Oil Prices Are Likely To Increase  [View article]
    Mr. Hanshaw:
    The problem facings the Saudis isn't really the cost of producing. It's that its budget was based on a much higher price for crude, as I recall in the $70s, so the Saudi government is spending more than it contemplated and is using up its dollar reserves at a rapid rate (I believe that was at about 20% last year).
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 8, 2016. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine: An Egg-Cellent Possibility For The Dividend Growth Investor  [View article]
    Mbrot:
    According to the article EPS and the dividend are both $3.35 for a 100% payout ratio. How does that stated dividend policy lead to that result?
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 7, 2016. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine: An Egg-Cellent Possibility For The Dividend Growth Investor  [View article]
    Mbrot:
    According to the article EPS is $3.35 and the dividend is $3.35 so there is a 100% payout ratio. What does the stated dividend policy provide?
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 7, 2016. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalism Is Grinding To A Halt  [View article]
    But our economy is still the world's strongest. That's the good news. The bad news is that because our economy is strong so is our currency, and a strong dollar is creating deflation (low commodity prices, cheap imports, declining manufacturing, declining exports, etc) which can end badly.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 7, 2016. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Dawn Of The Utica Era?  [View article]
    21793061:
    Apart from your interesting (and to me, impenetrable) Comment, with ethane being rejected, and having been rejected for years, because it is in excess supply and brings correlative low prices, isn't this all academic anyway?
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 7, 2016. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Strategy To Reduce Stock Market Anxiety  [View article]
    The article does deliver what its name promises: a strategy to reduce stock market anxiety, for which I am grateful.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 6, 2016. 12:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Dawn Of The Utica Era?  [View article]
    jgtjr:
    If the processes of Honeywell and Siluria become operational and wide-spread either by expansion or licensing, it seems that every fractionation facility will need to be reconfigured or become obsolete.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 6, 2016. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Show That Oil Is Yet To Bottom And That Weaker Prices Are Here To Stay  [View article]
    Mr. Valores:
    It is virtually impossible to predict when a bottom may fall, since crude prices are not set by traditional supply/demand economics but rather by politics, which determines the supply side of the equation. The real factor is Saudi Arabia vs. Iran and Russia, and it is difficult to ascertain who will do what to whom and when. Rational analysis is not always determinate in that dynamic.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 3, 2016. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Price Has Not Bottomed, But Here's How To Prepare For It  [View article]
    Mr. Lee:
    That is a well done and interesting analysis. However, it is virtually impossible to predict timing (2H16, 1H17, etc), since the problem is at its heart not one of fundamental economics or purely supply and demand. Rather it is essentially a political problem, Saudi Arabia vs. Iran and Russia, and we have no real ability to predict which will decide to do what to the other and when. and why. Rationality can only take one so far given that dynamic.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 2, 2016. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Musings  [View article]
    Scooter-Pop:
    Please be patient.
    Cheniere is just starting to export NGLs.
    Exports to Mexico are still ramping up.
    EPD and others are still developing facilities for large scale NGL exports made possible by the arbitrage created by the difference between prices here and in Asia and Europe.
    The conversion of coal to gas by utilities is still in early stages and is immuttable.
    The Gulf Coast petrochemical plants which use NGLs as feedstock won't become operational until 2017-2018.
    These things will render the weather forecasts for today and tomorrow less meaningful.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 1, 2016. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun  [View article]
    Obviously in point 2 of my above Comment "thane" should have been "ethane".
    Feb 1, 2016. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun  [View article]
    21793061:
    Here are some other points ignored in the article:
    1. The rapid decline rate of shale gas wells. After 5 years the wells are 85% depleted. And the lack of easy capital to replace those wells. And, contrary to popular belief, DUC wells cannot be instantly restarted by turning on a switch, especially with the shortage of qualified personnel who have left the industry.
    2. The fact that in the current low NGL price environment, with thane rejection still prevalent, dry gas wells are being shut in.
    3. The export of natural gas to Mexico.
    4. The export of LNG by Cheniere and others, which is just beginning.
    5. The conversion of coal to gas by utilities.
    6. The petrochemical plants that are under construction in the Gulf Coast and will open for business in 2017-2018, using NGLs as feedstock.
    7. The export of NGLs by EPD and others, because the low Henry Hub price enables a nice arbitrage in Asia and Europe.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 1, 2016. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Is Already Here: How To Profit  [View article]
    scoots and change:
    Just keep cash, which increases in value in a deflationary world.
    Elliot Miller
    Feb 1, 2016. 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is When The Oil Market Will Rebalance  [View article]
    JD TX:
    The strength of the USD vs the euro, yen and yuan is another of the great imponderables here. I assume that by not discussing it, the author is assuming a constant forex ratio.
    Elliot Miller
    Jan 31, 2016. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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