elliot_mllr's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/44329/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170426-on-eps-and-mlps?source=feed#comment-740346 740346

On Nov 01 02:07 PM Karl Glazier wrote:

> By adding back depreciation, aren't you assuming the assets will
> never have to be replaced?
> If the assets are depreciated over a shorter period than their expected
> life, an adjustment should be made accordingly.
> But adding back all depreciation is not reflecting reality.
> If I am counting only the maintenance expenses on my car, I am fooling
> myself.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:50:02 -0500

On Nov 01 02:07 PM Karl Glazier wrote:

> By adding back depreciation, aren't you assuming the assets will
> never have to be replaced?
> If the assets are depreciated over a shorter period than their expected
> life, an adjustment should be made accordingly.
> But adding back all depreciation is not reflecting reality.
> If I am counting only the maintenance expenses on my car, I am fooling
> myself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170426-on-eps-and-mlps?source=feed#comment-740343 740343

On Nov 01 02:52 PM Elliott Gue wrote:

> Thanks for the comment. There are refineries in the US that have
> been in operation for a century, long beyond what would be considered
> the useful life of such an asset. However, over the years, every
> piece of this equipment has been replaced and upgraded, likely several
> times.
>
> To use your example, the effect would be the same as you replacing
> every part of your car gradually over time including the body itself.
>
>
> Maintenance expenses from an MLP are designed to reflect normal replacement
> and upgrading of equipment surrounding the asset over time. It's
> likely that these pipelines will not be replaced if, by replacement,
> you mean totally dismantled, scrapped and rebuilt.
>
> Adding back depreciation and then factoring in a maintenance expense
> that reflects the need for ongoing replacement and upgrading is the
> most relevant measure of an MLP's earnings power in my view. Of course,
> as I noted in the article, one has to account for the reasonableness
> of the maintenance expenses the particular MLP uses to calculate
> DCF.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:49:16 -0500

On Nov 01 02:52 PM Elliott Gue wrote:

> Thanks for the comment. There are refineries in the US that have
> been in operation for a century, long beyond what would be considered
> the useful life of such an asset. However, over the years, every
> piece of this equipment has been replaced and upgraded, likely several
> times.
>
> To use your example, the effect would be the same as you replacing
> every part of your car gradually over time including the body itself.
>
>
> Maintenance expenses from an MLP are designed to reflect normal replacement
> and upgrading of equipment surrounding the asset over time. It's
> likely that these pipelines will not be replaced if, by replacement,
> you mean totally dismantled, scrapped and rebuilt.
>
> Adding back depreciation and then factoring in a maintenance expense
> that reflects the need for ongoing replacement and upgrading is the
> most relevant measure of an MLP's earnings power in my view. Of course,
> as I noted in the article, one has to account for the reasonableness
> of the maintenance expenses the particular MLP uses to calculate
> DCF.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167554-mlps-gp-lp-relationship-is-key?source=feed#comment-723919 723919 Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:02:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166209-opportunity-in-the-brazilian-real-and-chinese-renminbi?source=feed#comment-715278 715278 Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:39:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164713-how-much-natural-gas-remains-in-the-usa?source=feed#comment-703711 703711

On Oct 04 10:46 AM Michael Fitzsimmons wrote:

> i am of course biased, but i believe a much better treatment of this
> subject can be found in this article:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> i have not heard many credible experts say we have "hundreds of years
> worth of natural gas reserves" (key there is the "s" on the end of
> hundreds), but i have heard 100 years worth, and would agree with
> that estimate. further, considering the haynesville shale may well
> turn out to be the 4th largest nat gas field in the world, and the
> economic recovery of many other shale regions, and that nat gas production
> is dominated by small independents (and therefore cannot be controlled
> as easily as oil), i don't think you'll see big runs in nat gas prices
> (inflation adjusted) for quite some time. i add "inflation adjusted"
> to that comment because, at the rate the fed and treasury are working
> (unconstitutionally) to print US dollars as fast as they can, we're
> guaranteed to see prices of EVERY commodity go higher in the years
> to come. all this aside, you won't see natural gas prices off a boom-bust
> yo-yo until the US does what it should so obviously do to solve the
> economic, environmental, and national security issues as a result
> of its 60% addiction to foreign oil: adopt natural gas transportation.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:15:46 -0400

On Oct 04 10:46 AM Michael Fitzsimmons wrote:

> i am of course biased, but i believe a much better treatment of this
> subject can be found in this article:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> i have not heard many credible experts say we have "hundreds of years
> worth of natural gas reserves" (key there is the "s" on the end of
> hundreds), but i have heard 100 years worth, and would agree with
> that estimate. further, considering the haynesville shale may well
> turn out to be the 4th largest nat gas field in the world, and the
> economic recovery of many other shale regions, and that nat gas production
> is dominated by small independents (and therefore cannot be controlled
> as easily as oil), i don't think you'll see big runs in nat gas prices
> (inflation adjusted) for quite some time. i add "inflation adjusted"
> to that comment because, at the rate the fed and treasury are working
> (unconstitutionally) to print US dollars as fast as they can, we're
> guaranteed to see prices of EVERY commodity go higher in the years
> to come. all this aside, you won't see natural gas prices off a boom-bust
> yo-yo until the US does what it should so obviously do to solve the
> economic, environmental, and national security issues as a result
> of its 60% addiction to foreign oil: adopt natural gas transportation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164577-brazil-do-olympics-make-it-a-better-investment?source=feed#comment-702282 702282 BZF)? It was a buy before the announcement and certainly afterward as well.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 09:44:08 -0400 BZF)? It was a buy before the announcement and certainly afterward as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163767-should-you-invest-in-banking-stocks?source=feed#comment-695977 695977 Tue, 29 Sep 2009 17:15:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160474-now-s-the-time-relatively-for-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-667414 667414

On Sep 08 05:42 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> poim. Just when I get comfortable with my view on Natural Gas, I
> get a scratchy, reverberating cell phone call from one of the major
> formations telling me that I’m being way too bullish. Gas won’t bottom
> at $2. The free fall will continue until it hits $1. National storage
> will be completely full imminently top out, and when it does, the
> producers will have to shut down completely. Since these guys are
> leveraged up the wazoo, this will trigger a string of bankruptcies,
> and the majors will fall like dominoes. A hedge fund bust won’t define
> this bottom, as these guys are all playing from the short side. UNG
> can’t step in as a buyer of last resort, as the SEC won’t let it
> issue more stock, and the current shares are trading at a ridiculous
> 20% premium. One thing we do agree on is that the bottom will look
> ugly, whatever the spark is. You often get Armageddon type views
> near market bottoms, but this guy has been dead on right until now.
> Well, it takes two to make a market. Conclusion: keep NG nailed to
> your screen, as the widow maker is where the volatility lives.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:50:35 -0400

On Sep 08 05:42 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> poim. Just when I get comfortable with my view on Natural Gas, I
> get a scratchy, reverberating cell phone call from one of the major
> formations telling me that I’m being way too bullish. Gas won’t bottom
> at $2. The free fall will continue until it hits $1. National storage
> will be completely full imminently top out, and when it does, the
> producers will have to shut down completely. Since these guys are
> leveraged up the wazoo, this will trigger a string of bankruptcies,
> and the majors will fall like dominoes. A hedge fund bust won’t define
> this bottom, as these guys are all playing from the short side. UNG
> can’t step in as a buyer of last resort, as the SEC won’t let it
> issue more stock, and the current shares are trading at a ridiculous
> 20% premium. One thing we do agree on is that the bottom will look
> ugly, whatever the spark is. You often get Armageddon type views
> near market bottoms, but this guy has been dead on right until now.
> Well, it takes two to make a market. Conclusion: keep NG nailed to
> your screen, as the widow maker is where the volatility lives.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160193-natural-gas-production-outlook-decreases-are-in-the-offing?source=feed#comment-663866 663866 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 10:05:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159835-another-natural-gas-bull-sticks-his-neck-out?source=feed#comment-663423 663423

On Sep 03 02:12 PM mplaut wrote:

> Play NG with MLPs that are hedged and producing a lot of NG. They
> pay a distribution and although they will probably not rocket up
> as much as some of the more leveraged players, they are safer and
> will probably have nice gains. JMO.]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 18:05:51 -0400

On Sep 03 02:12 PM mplaut wrote:

> Play NG with MLPs that are hedged and producing a lot of NG. They
> pay a distribution and although they will probably not rocket up
> as much as some of the more leveraged players, they are safer and
> will probably have nice gains. JMO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159522-5-things-you-need-to-know-when-analyzing-corporate-debt?source=feed#comment-663415 663415

On Sep 02 07:52 AM traden4alpha wrote:

> Excellent Post!
>
> First, one can also think about the duration of any debt relative
> to the cash assets and cash-flow of the company. All debts must
> be repaid (or rolled into new debt) and that creates risk if the
> company does not have enough cash to repay the debt. This crisis
> shows that companies can't assume that credit will always be easy
> to get. And if/when inflation rears it's ugly head, then rolling
> a debt might become extremely expensive. The point is that if a
> company has debt that's due in 5 years, for example, it should be
> creating cash-flow sufficient to repay the principal on that debt
> in 5 years.
>
> Second, equity investors are last in line for the profits and assets
> of the company. The greater the debt, the longer the line of claimants
> standing in front of the equity investor. That's why equity investors
> need to think carefully about indebted companies.]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 17:52:36 -0400

On Sep 02 07:52 AM traden4alpha wrote:

> Excellent Post!
>
> First, one can also think about the duration of any debt relative
> to the cash assets and cash-flow of the company. All debts must
> be repaid (or rolled into new debt) and that creates risk if the
> company does not have enough cash to repay the debt. This crisis
> shows that companies can't assume that credit will always be easy
> to get. And if/when inflation rears it's ugly head, then rolling
> a debt might become extremely expensive. The point is that if a
> company has debt that's due in 5 years, for example, it should be
> creating cash-flow sufficient to repay the principal on that debt
> in 5 years.
>
> Second, equity investors are last in line for the profits and assets
> of the company. The greater the debt, the longer the line of claimants
> standing in front of the equity investor. That's why equity investors
> need to think carefully about indebted companies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158991-master-limited-partnerships-for-your-portfolio-three-key-questions-and-answers?source=feed#comment-653259 653259 ]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 10:55:40 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154944-the-energy-markets-according-to-stupak?source=feed#comment-623127 623127 Mon, 10 Aug 2009 10:03:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154411-3-energy-mlps-for-the-price-of-one?source=feed#comment-619830 619830 ETE) is in fact the general partner for Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). ETE also owns a large percentage of the limited partnership units (I believe around 70%) of ETP and it also receives incentive distribution rights from ETP. TEPPCO (TPP) is about to merge into Enterprise Product Partners (EPD).
Distributions from ETE and ETP (and also LINE, referred to by one reader, above) are 100% returns of capital and are therefore entirely tax-deferred. Distributions from EPD and TPP are 90% returns of capital and 90% tax deferred.]]> Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:38:29 -0400 ETE) is in fact the general partner for Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). ETE also owns a large percentage of the limited partnership units (I believe around 70%) of ETP and it also receives incentive distribution rights from ETP. TEPPCO (TPP) is about to merge into Enterprise Product Partners (EPD).
Distributions from ETE and ETP (and also LINE, referred to by one reader, above) are 100% returns of capital and are therefore entirely tax-deferred. Distributions from EPD and TPP are 90% returns of capital and 90% tax deferred.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152819-why-i-m-exiting-greenhill-co?source=feed#comment-610168 610168 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 16:05:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149875-a-stellar-year-for-mlps-so-far?source=feed#comment-596538 596538 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:11:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148959-investing-in-shipping-stocks-maximum-pessimism-is-here?source=feed#comment-592007 592007 Also, one must distinguish between container ships, dry bulkers and tankers ( and as to tankers there is a further breakdown between crude, product and LNG, and shuttle tankers that go between deep sea rigs and refineries, and storage and offtake tankers). Each category and sub category has its own problems and opportunities.For example, there is the greatest present and putative oversupply of vessels in the box ships (containers). In the tanker sector the oversupply may be ameliorated by the rules mandating the end of single hull vessels. Here the price of steel impacts the extent of scrapping.
As a shipping investor who has owned dozens of each category of vessel company, right now I believe that the dry bulk segment is the best. It does not depend on exports from countries like China and Indonesia, whose economies are becoming more domestic and infrastructure driven and which need to import bulk cargoes. My favorite now is Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) a very well-run limited partnership affiliate of Naivios Maritime Holdings. Its vessels are all chartered for this and next year at decent rates and it has a significant yield based on safe partnership distributions.]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 11:30:27 -0400 Also, one must distinguish between container ships, dry bulkers and tankers ( and as to tankers there is a further breakdown between crude, product and LNG, and shuttle tankers that go between deep sea rigs and refineries, and storage and offtake tankers). Each category and sub category has its own problems and opportunities.For example, there is the greatest present and putative oversupply of vessels in the box ships (containers). In the tanker sector the oversupply may be ameliorated by the rules mandating the end of single hull vessels. Here the price of steel impacts the extent of scrapping.
As a shipping investor who has owned dozens of each category of vessel company, right now I believe that the dry bulk segment is the best. It does not depend on exports from countries like China and Indonesia, whose economies are becoming more domestic and infrastructure driven and which need to import bulk cargoes. My favorite now is Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) a very well-run limited partnership affiliate of Naivios Maritime Holdings. Its vessels are all chartered for this and next year at decent rates and it has a significant yield based on safe partnership distributions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147160-chile-s-emerging-economy-better-than-the-rest?source=feed#comment-582758 582758 Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:00:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148051-when-timing-meets-opportunity-which-dividend-achievers-are-at-a-52-week-low?source=feed#comment-582719 582719 Thanks]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:30:53 -0400 Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147829-commodities-cap-and-trade-and-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-581344 581344

On Jul 09 01:11 PM jack kreg wrote:

> "reduce coal and require more natural gas and solar power. Thanks
> to environmentalists, America may finally be able to reduce its dependence
> on foreign oil."
> this is the most irrational statement that I have ever read.
>
> Substitution of NG for American Coal equals reduction foreign use
> for cars and trucks??
>
> We have the environmentalists to thank for this NON-existent reduction
> in imports of foreign oil.
>
> Sure, NG power plants are inherently cleaner burning, but what does
> that have to do with importing foreign oil.
>
> I dont think that you proof read your article before posting, or_____?]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 18:12:21 -0400

On Jul 09 01:11 PM jack kreg wrote:

> "reduce coal and require more natural gas and solar power. Thanks
> to environmentalists, America may finally be able to reduce its dependence
> on foreign oil."
> this is the most irrational statement that I have ever read.
>
> Substitution of NG for American Coal equals reduction foreign use
> for cars and trucks??
>
> We have the environmentalists to thank for this NON-existent reduction
> in imports of foreign oil.
>
> Sure, NG power plants are inherently cleaner burning, but what does
> that have to do with importing foreign oil.
>
> I dont think that you proof read your article before posting, or_____?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146864-oh-so-now-there-are-no-green-shoots?source=feed#comment-573849 573849

On Jul 04 09:23 AM FDNY RET wrote:

> Sorry don't want to be a partner stockholder in a company with the
> Govt. as the principal, where Social engineering replaces profit
> motive.
> We are on the way to becoming a Socialist third world country where
> the illiterate, non working, drug addict will represent the middle
> class and the remainder will collate accordingly.
>
> You're noy going to beat it, so do what they did in Sweden with
> 90% confiscatory taxes of the higher paid educated class,----LEAVE!]]> Sat, 04 Jul 2009 10:11:12 -0400

On Jul 04 09:23 AM FDNY RET wrote:

> Sorry don't want to be a partner stockholder in a company with the
> Govt. as the principal, where Social engineering replaces profit
> motive.
> We are on the way to becoming a Socialist third world country where
> the illiterate, non working, drug addict will represent the middle
> class and the remainder will collate accordingly.
>
> You're noy going to beat it, so do what they did in Sweden with
> 90% confiscatory taxes of the higher paid educated class,----LEAVE!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146864-oh-so-now-there-are-no-green-shoots?source=feed#comment-573843 573843

On Jul 03 01:09 PM logicalthought wrote:

> Well, to answer your specific two examples:
>
> Oil is a 100% fungible commodity, and when worldwide lack of demand
> drives the price back down to $40 (or, perhaps, considerably below
> that), how well will the Norwegian stock market do? If you're such
> a bull on oil, why buy Norway? Why not just buy the commodity itself,
> or perhaps the stocks of the producers and drillers? And as for Peruvian
> and Chilean copper exports, sure a huge chunk of that goes to China,
> but where do you think the finished products are supposed to go?
> Thanks to a wasteful "stimulus" package combined with drastically
> reduced end-user demand for its manufactured products, China is clearly
> blowing itself a brand new bubble in real estate, equities and (although
> I think this part is now over) commodities. My biggest issue with
> China isn't when to get long but, rather, when to get short. (I want
> to try to time it so that I can remain solvent longer than that market
> can remain irrational.)]]> Sat, 04 Jul 2009 09:55:07 -0400

On Jul 03 01:09 PM logicalthought wrote:

> Well, to answer your specific two examples:
>
> Oil is a 100% fungible commodity, and when worldwide lack of demand
> drives the price back down to $40 (or, perhaps, considerably below
> that), how well will the Norwegian stock market do? If you're such
> a bull on oil, why buy Norway? Why not just buy the commodity itself,
> or perhaps the stocks of the producers and drillers? And as for Peruvian
> and Chilean copper exports, sure a huge chunk of that goes to China,
> but where do you think the finished products are supposed to go?
> Thanks to a wasteful "stimulus" package combined with drastically
> reduced end-user demand for its manufactured products, China is clearly
> blowing itself a brand new bubble in real estate, equities and (although
> I think this part is now over) commodities. My biggest issue with
> China isn't when to get long but, rather, when to get short. (I want
> to try to time it so that I can remain solvent longer than that market
> can remain irrational.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146864-oh-so-now-there-are-no-green-shoots?source=feed#comment-573840 573840 Also, two-thirds of Indonesia's economy is domestic. I'm comparing IF and IDX before deciding which to buy.


On Jul 03 11:35 AM Roger Nusbaum wrote:

> no country is perfect, don't forget that but
>
> How much oil does Norway export to the US?
>
> How much copper does Chile export to the US?
>
> Ditto Peru?
>
> What is the resource demand in China for the non-manufacturing part
> of the economy?
>
> There are questions like these that can be asked of many countries
> ex-Big Western Europe and Japan, this is where I have been investing
> and continue to look (been writing about Norway and Chile as long
> as I've been writing).]]> Sat, 04 Jul 2009 09:48:00 -0400 Also, two-thirds of Indonesia's economy is domestic. I'm comparing IF and IDX before deciding which to buy.


On Jul 03 11:35 AM Roger Nusbaum wrote:

> no country is perfect, don't forget that but
>
> How much oil does Norway export to the US?
>
> How much copper does Chile export to the US?
>
> Ditto Peru?
>
> What is the resource demand in China for the non-manufacturing part
> of the economy?
>
> There are questions like these that can be asked of many countries
> ex-Big Western Europe and Japan, this is where I have been investing
> and continue to look (been writing about Norway and Chile as long
> as I've been writing).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146027-indonesia-etf-5-factors-to-consider-before-investing?source=feed#comment-568436 568436 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 11:14:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145929-obama-s-energy-bill-a-recipe-for-economic-destruction?source=feed#comment-567385 567385 Where is the infrastructure to transport and distribute wind powr, etc?
Fortunately Steny Hoyer is not yet a Senator. He is still only a congressman.]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:20:48 -0400 Where is the infrastructure to transport and distribute wind powr, etc?
Fortunately Steny Hoyer is not yet a Senator. He is still only a congressman.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145584-bric-to-bic-to-bici?source=feed#comment-564909 564909

On Jun 26 09:50 PM Alan Young wrote:

> When the author said "Indonesia is a very small market," that should
> pretty much be the end of the story. Its stock capitalization is
> less than a tenth of a BRIC; it will be many years before it evolves
> into something tradable.
>
> Deserving of more attention: South Africa, whose stock cap is already
> more than India or Russia, and which has abundant resources for future
> growth.]]> Sat, 27 Jun 2009 12:04:38 -0400

On Jun 26 09:50 PM Alan Young wrote:

> When the author said "Indonesia is a very small market," that should
> pretty much be the end of the story. Its stock capitalization is
> less than a tenth of a BRIC; it will be many years before it evolves
> into something tradable.
>
> Deserving of more attention: South Africa, whose stock cap is already
> more than India or Russia, and which has abundant resources for future
> growth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145584-bric-to-bic-to-bici?source=feed#comment-564907 564907

On Jun 27 10:51 AM WS1835 wrote:

> IMHO - I see a fairly certain emergence of "BICA", lol.....
>
> The current BRIC alignment is an apt grouping at the current time,
> but Russia is really only there due to former glory and its control
> of Europe's gas supply. Europe continues to diversify their energy
> base and soon everyone will have nukes so those advantages will mean
> far less in the future. Combined with a domestic demographic implosion,
> Russia is headed back its historic status as a second rate behemoth
> way out in the hinterland of Eurasia.
>
> Similar comments might be made for Japan. After its brief imperial
> stint last century, its cultural perspective has once again turned
> inward to the point where being a major power isn't even thinkable.
> It will remain regional player in the Pacific, but probably little
> more than that as it too faces demographic challenges.
>
> The future influence of China and India is a done deal, and Brazil
> is well on its way to dominating trade in south and central america.
> As the economic clout of the USA and its dependent Mexico fade due
> to government policy and instability, Brazil's lock on the southern
> half of the hemisphere will be solid.
>
> So it is pretty safe to bet on "BIC" at the very least. However,
> I would suggest that there will be a fourth nation in that group
> shortly after Russia drops out. As mentioned by other commentors,
> I think that nation will be Australia. Australia isn't as big as
> the BIC countries, but it has characteristics that will push it to
> prominence as the hub of worldwide economic activity shifts from
> the USA/Europe to the Far East. Australia is a serious player on
> the commodities front and is the sole 'western' presence in SE Asia.
> (no offense to New Zealand, too small to count)
>
> Its financial stability and resources are already giving it significant
> policy influence with China and the minor SE Asian nations. Australia
> has an excellent chance become the 'middle man' for the new economic
> order in Asia. It is physically situated mid way between India and
> China and Japan, and politically/culturally it is situated mid way
> between the Orient and the West. In addition, the Aussies don't
> have the same geo-political baggage as countries like the UK or USA.
> As China and India work together to economically develop and unite
> the Far East, Australia is one of the few western nations likely
> to be invited to the table.
>
> So get ready for BICA.....or....CIBA...... BIAC.....]]> Sat, 27 Jun 2009 12:01:39 -0400

On Jun 27 10:51 AM WS1835 wrote:

> IMHO - I see a fairly certain emergence of "BICA", lol.....
>
> The current BRIC alignment is an apt grouping at the current time,
> but Russia is really only there due to former glory and its control
> of Europe's gas supply. Europe continues to diversify their energy
> base and soon everyone will have nukes so those advantages will mean
> far less in the future. Combined with a domestic demographic implosion,
> Russia is headed back its historic status as a second rate behemoth
> way out in the hinterland of Eurasia.
>
> Similar comments might be made for Japan. After its brief imperial
> stint last century, its cultural perspective has once again turned
> inward to the point where being a major power isn't even thinkable.
> It will remain regional player in the Pacific, but probably little
> more than that as it too faces demographic challenges.
>
> The future influence of China and India is a done deal, and Brazil
> is well on its way to dominating trade in south and central america.
> As the economic clout of the USA and its dependent Mexico fade due
> to government policy and instability, Brazil's lock on the southern
> half of the hemisphere will be solid.
>
> So it is pretty safe to bet on "BIC" at the very least. However,
> I would suggest that there will be a fourth nation in that group
> shortly after Russia drops out. As mentioned by other commentors,
> I think that nation will be Australia. Australia isn't as big as
> the BIC countries, but it has characteristics that will push it to
> prominence as the hub of worldwide economic activity shifts from
> the USA/Europe to the Far East. Australia is a serious player on
> the commodities front and is the sole 'western' presence in SE Asia.
> (no offense to New Zealand, too small to count)
>
> Its financial stability and resources are already giving it significant
> policy influence with China and the minor SE Asian nations. Australia
> has an excellent chance become the 'middle man' for the new economic
> order in Asia. It is physically situated mid way between India and
> China and Japan, and politically/culturally it is situated mid way
> between the Orient and the West. In addition, the Aussies don't
> have the same geo-political baggage as countries like the UK or USA.
> As China and India work together to economically develop and unite
> the Far East, Australia is one of the few western nations likely
> to be invited to the table.
>
> So get ready for BICA.....or....CIBA...... BIAC.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145584-bric-to-bic-to-bici?source=feed#comment-564906 564906

On Jun 26 11:13 AM feelofficer wrote:

> A silly game...
>
> Despite Russia's perilous investment circumstance... it ranks as
> a world power rich with technology, resources and population to maintain
> it as a (somewhat) worthy investment.
>
> What does Indonesia have but population?]]> Sat, 27 Jun 2009 11:59:53 -0400

On Jun 26 11:13 AM feelofficer wrote:

> A silly game...
>
> Despite Russia's perilous investment circumstance... it ranks as
> a world power rich with technology, resources and population to maintain
> it as a (somewhat) worthy investment.
>
> What does Indonesia have but population?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145292-my-current-natural-gas-trade?source=feed#comment-562019 562019 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:46:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144320-here-s-what-world-markets-are-telling-income-investors-to-do?source=feed#comment-556028 556028 As a Buy and Hold income investor I am concentrating on midstream MLPs/LLCs ( such as ETE,ETP,EPD,TPP, NRGY,etc.) and one upstream LLC (Linn Energy).
]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 10:08:42 -0400 As a Buy and Hold income investor I am concentrating on midstream MLPs/LLCs ( such as ETE,ETP,EPD,TPP, NRGY,etc.) and one upstream LLC (Linn Energy).
]]>