elliot_mllr

The Energy Markets According to Stupak

Has anybody explained to Stupak that commodities are traded world-wide and that restrictions on US trading will simply redirect trading to London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, etc?

Pay Attention to Oil Decline Rates

Worthy:
You were right the first time. Politicians don't get it. Our Congress is replete with economic ignoramuses.

Speculating on Oil Regulation - Not the Most Effective Tool

The US government can only regulate US trading, US traders, or US products (eg, WTI contracts) traded. It cannot, for example regulate trading abroad by non-US traders in Brent contracts. I suspect that the new UAE commodities market will benefit mightily from any US regulation on oil contracts traded here, without any material reduction in the price of oil. Remember a few weeks ago, when the government suspended contributions to the SPR? That was going to lower the price of crude too.
And as to speculators, unless a pension or endowment fund wants to take physical delivery of a lot of barrels of oil, if they are long crude they will have to sell their position before the contract expiration. This should be a self-regulating mechanism.

Peak Oil, Crude Price and Equity Correlation

With regard to this $50 oil scenario, the author should bear in mind that adjusted for inflation oil was $100 in 1980, when supplies were readily available.

Crude Oil Prices: Bears Will Soon Win Out

It is naive to believe that any regulation by the CFTC, Congress or the exchanges will have any adverse impact on the price of crude, just as Congress' brilliant idea of suspending additions to the SPR until oil is $75 a barrel was impotent. Oil is a multi-trillion dollar commodity traded world-wide. If trading the WTI contracts on the Nymex becomes burdensome traders will simply shift to trading Brent on the ICE in London. In fact, if margin requirements become too high for some Nymex traders who are short they will want to get out of their trades and will have to cover, thereby increasing the price of crude. Interference with markets never works, and politicians are ignorant of economics (as well as much else).

Oil Closing in on $110 Support Level

I don't know how Ames Tiederman can make price predictions with such absolute certainty. While he may be thoughtful and perhaps credible (although such absolutist comments are not evidence of that) I seriously doubt that Mr. Tieferman is as successful as Boone Pickens, whom he blithely descibes as "long and wrong". By the way, in a Bloomberg interview last week, Mr. Pickens pointed out that May was the weakest month for oil prices and predicted (with credibility and reasoned judgment based on more than 50 years of success in the oil business) that oil would drop to $85 short term before returning by the end of this year to $120-$150. Several other reasoned analyses have said the same thing, in detail and with more basis than sound bites.

Big Oil Once Again Abused by Congress

It's bad enough that we are going to have the same type of bureaucrats who generate long lines at the DMV also provide us with health care, but if we entrust the government to undertake the complexities of running an E & P operation we'll all freeze and our cars will remain on empty.

Is Oil Overpriced at $105/Barrel?

Paultaut shows the basis for the decoupling of the Us from the global economy. The facts he recites also show the folly of attempting a reversion to protectionism and away from free trade.

Mid-Month Oil Reality Check

This analysis, while excellent, does not even consider the impact of the falling dollar. The decline of the USD vs. other currencies is another reason that crude will continue to rise. Moreover, the high costs of deep water drilling and of extracting and processing Canadian oil sands will keep prices high.

Oil Hovers Around $52 on Prospect of Emergency OPEC Meeting

Two points:
1. Home heating oil accounts for only about 6% of the crude refined in and for the US, so the steep decline in price is properly attributable only to hedge funds shorting and other institutions selling.
2. Now that the Saudis have come out against another meeting before March 15th on the ground that the excess supplies are being worked off, oil fell below $51 and closed slightly above $51. There is speculation that the real reason for the Saudi position was because they are virtually alone in adhering to the reduced quotas,