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  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    I did not assume for sure it would file in 6 months. If I would know that sure, i would not tell anyone.

    What I am saying is that March 15 is a pivotal date, big decision date.

    "to pay, or not to pay?" it is $500 million question. It does have about $1 B cash on hand. Considering it has may be $10 Billions or more bond maturing in 4 years, is it a right decision to redeem this one in full when other bonds trading at 13 cents?

    CHK would redeem that 3.25% bond for $508 millions only if it is certain that it can survive for at least 3 more years. Otherwise, it makes no sense to do so, knowing that $508 millions can do a lot to satisfy unsecured and 2nd lien bonds.

    All other CHK bonds are at 13 cents that mature in about 4 years!

    if Oil and Gas price stay at $30 and $2 in March, 2016, my view is that CHK will not redeem that $508 million 3.25% bond.

    The only way to avoid that is if Icahn and other hedge fund injecting a huge cash in exchange for a huge stake. dilution is unavoidable. dilution is probably the best solution to ensure CHK survival. Its bond is at 13 cents so it can't really sell any more unsecured bond.
    Feb 9, 2016. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy And The 5 Stages Of Grief  [View article]
    Bond investors are often the smart one vs. dummy stock investor.

    If bond at 3 cent, you sell stock. There is no hope. Many companies that filed Chap 11 has bond at 30 cents!

    bond at 3 cent must file Chap 11! no exception!
    Feb 9, 2016. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    I hope you sold this bond today. It is likely going towards 15 cents.
    Feb 9, 2016. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    Losing,

    you are too much emotionally attached to your money:-) just saying...

    it is like playing poker. Even though the goal is to make money, when you playing poker, you can't be emotionally attached to your money. You should treat these chips as chips and play logically and correctly, not emotionally.
    Feb 9, 2016. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    The point is to provoke ideas and brain storming.

    You don't have to follow his suggestion blind. I actually draw opposite conclusion based his analysis since the upside is 5% and down side is about 80%.

    But he correctly pointed out March 15 date and market took notice and knock down CHK 50%.
    Feb 9, 2016. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    Folks,

    judging by so many replies to this article, I think Lababa did a good service to us all. His conclusion may not be right but the topic is spot on. Frankly, the Monday melt down of CHK is indeed triggered by this bond.

    People realized that there is a bigger chance CHK may not redeem it on March 15----hence Chap 11 filing, a possibility.
    Feb 9, 2016. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    Josi, Your article is actually a good catch. That is one of the pivotal time point for CHK decision making.

    If CHK has to file Chap 11 in 6 months, it would file on March 15 to save $500 millions.

    In any case, major action has to be taken on or before March 15.

    CHK has to look the company as a whole to justify paying out $500 millions when it only has about $1 billiobs to take care about $10 billion unsecured debt.
    Feb 9, 2016. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: AOL's Armstrong leading early talks about Yahoo asset bid  [View news story]
    that Mayer must go! wasting $5 billion buying junk!
    Feb 8, 2016. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    lababa made a good call.

    37% yield just jumped to 237%; a gain of 200% in less than 2 weeks.

    we shall all follow his next "recommendation"
    Feb 8, 2016. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: AOL's Armstrong leading early talks about Yahoo asset bid  [View news story]
    you bull?

    VZ bought AOl at 4.5 bil.

    YHOO web business alone (besides $4 bil cash, baba and yahoo japan) should worth at least 3X of AOL.
    Feb 8, 2016. 03:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    baba,

    if it is not filing today, CHK must say it is not filing.

    however, it can always file tomorrow.

    Why it wants to pay out $500 millions, knowing that $500 millions can take care a lot of business. if junior bond trading at 15 cents, $500 millions can buy back $3.3 billions!

    Yield on This 3% bond is 180% now. Are sellers stupid?
    Feb 8, 2016. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Linn Energy Just Die?  [View article]
    line junior bond yielding 300% , traded at 2 cents.

    so it is done
    Feb 8, 2016. 02:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    if this 3.25% bond is only $100 millions, I can see pay out make some sense.

    $500 millions is just too big.
    Feb 8, 2016. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Nothing Left But The Shouting  [View article]
    1) Mayer must go

    2) Yahoo is no dog. it is 3rd largest internet company behind Google and Facebook.

    3) 1/10th of facebook is about $20 billions.

    4) It is hard to get 1 billions visitors to your web. with $1 billions visitors, there are so much you can do to monetize it. How about just hand over search to Google? Hand over yahoo email to gmail? then fire 80% employees.
    Feb 8, 2016. 02:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Market Doesn't Understand About Chesapeake Energy's 37% Yield March 2016 Bond  [View article]
    why CHK would pay out valuable $500 millions at this crucial moment?

    this $500 millions does not help CHK in anyway.

    It should use this moment to force a bond tender.

    It should do a massive dilution/bond tender, so that unsecured bond get 25% principal in new bond, plus 25% principal in CHK stock, plus some warrants; sell $1 billion new convertible to Icahn with generous conversion term plus 5% interest (similar to what Buffet got in 2009); 1 for 10 reverse stock.

    may be a special concession to this 3.25% bond, with double dose of future warrants...

    only way out.
    Feb 8, 2016. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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