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  • SunEdison: Cash To The Rescue [View article]
    My fuzzy ole brain seems to remember that insiders are prohibited from transacting in a stock that they have information not available to the public. The Wed. announcement was preceded by 7 transactions by directors and officers.....classic illegal insider trading using information not yet available to the general public. Trust this management? Not by a long shot for this ole investor/trader.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio down 11% premarket on temporary halt of DCVax trial in Germany [View news story]
    Jack post your source for the "almost no one is in the trial" headcount you claim in the Ph 3 dcvax-L trial.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio down 11% premarket on temporary halt of DCVax trial in Germany [View news story]
    Here is the actual posting by the German agency. Note the date was two years ago. AF is laughing his head off at the knee jerk reaction over the last three days.

    EudraCT Number: 2011-001977-13
    Sponsor's Protocol Code Number: 020221
    National Competent Authority: Germany - PEI
    Clinical Trial Type: EEA CTA
    Trial Status: Temporarily Halted
    Date on which this record was first entered in the EudraCT database: 2013-02-11
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio down 11% premarket on temporary halt of DCVax trial in Germany [View news story]
    One comment on Yahoo stated that this "disclosure" from AF is from a 2013 status designation by the German agency. While I did find the description of the DCvax-L trial by the link provided in AF's tweet, and it does show the trial results as temporarily halted, when I go directly to the website for the agency, I cannot find any mention of a halt in the trial. One would think that such important event as a halt would have been accompanied by a news announcement from Linda or Investor relations and there is none. This makes me suspect that the AF link is from old news during the certification of the new UK vaccine plant or something like that. Such important news would not have been provided in such a manner as AF tweet.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - Qualcomm Inc. [View article]
    deriv....interesting..... us more.
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - Qualcomm Inc. [View article]
    deriv....using another pricing engine. Proprietary to a service I have and also using OptionsXpress for the trades and some research. Using for market and stock analysis and schwab for stock trades. T/S is good for students of option trading and I still have a small account there. OX is where I like to also sell ES futures puts that are 200+ points OTM and 30 days expiration. It is a way to make decent returns without undue risk in a rising or sideways market, but on small size positions. Greed in that strategy could wipe a persons account clean and more.
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - Qualcomm Inc. [View article]
    This answer is just for me and my market rules. If I find a stock that I strongly feel is going to increase in value over the next 3-6 months and I wanted to buy an option for that time period, I would always buy an option that is ITM enough to result in intrinsic value high enough to offset at least 1/3 of the premium to buy the option. See the 60 strike above that has a premium of 8.05 X 1/3 = 2.68 objective for intrinsic offset. The actual intrinsic value is 2.73 so our objective is met resulting in the favorable gain/loss results above.
    Other investors will have their rules and discipline in their approach to investing and risk tolerance. We each need to find our own rules.
    Jul 13, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - Qualcomm Inc. [View article]
    63931, "cost him 49% more up front" is true. However the point is that as an investor we all want to maximize the odds in our favor. In option investing, the odds are different for each strike price and expiration date. There is a "sweet spot" that can be found in each option chain that has the most advantageous pricing and % chance of getting in the money on or before expiration. If all we were concerned about was lowest premium cost we would buy the $70 call or even higher as they are cheaper. The reason they are cheaper is they have less % chance of reaching or exceeding strike price on or before expiration. Look at the delta number for any option strike price. For the 65 strike it was 0.48 if my memory is correct. That means two things: 1) for every $1 move in the underlying, the option value will move $0.48 (it also will increase delta as it moves) and 2) The % chance that the 65 will be ITM at expiration is 48%. Option writers are more knowledgeable that any of us will ever be and that is why they make more money selling options than we can make buying them. Their job is to assess the stock to underwrite an option, the ATR (average movement in price), the interest rate cost, the volatility in the market, the rate of increase in delta, the spread between bid and ask, and determine a price for that option strike. It is not always a fair or logical progression of premium price from one strike/expiration to the next. By analysis one can find the exact price and and expiration that exposes you to the least amount of possible decay from volitility loading. That usually will be a higher premium but higher chance of profit. In the 60 strike for QCOM, it does that better than the 57.50, 55, and other ITM strikes for the Leap. Personally, I would seldom buy a leap 18 mo. expiration that far out as the option price movement between today and 18 months out will not closely align with the stock price movement. I have seen positions in leaps where the stock rose in price but the option fell in value. Why? Because the underwriter loaded a ton of volitility cost into the initial premium and then began to suck it all back out over time, thereby causing the value of the option to fall as the stock rose in value. For those seeking long term "renting" on a stock, I would lean toward buying 6 month expiration and rolling over 30 days prior to expiration until I was ready to exit.
    Finally, one can never overlook the most important part of the analysis....which way is the market trending and which way is the stock trending. If the market or stock is showing signs of weakness, buying a long term leap may be too much exposure to risk while a 60-90 day expiration greatly reduces size and risk, while conserving capital allowing more contracts to be purchased later when conditions improve. Just sayin'
    Jul 12, 2015. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - Qualcomm Inc. [View article]
    mmkk, I suggest you find an option analysis resource to calculate the best strike price for each expiration and premium to help you maximize your risk/reward. Your 65 strike will need QCOM to get to 69ish to break even. By selecting a strike which has minimized the amount of price that is NOT intrinsic value for a reasonable time (expiration) you will increase your chance of a return of premium and/or profit. A comparison example:

    65 strike with 18 months to expiration with the stock at 62.73 and premium of 5.70 (quotes at end of day Friday). At expiration the results=
    if no stk. price move your loss = 100% of premium (-$570);
    If 2.5% stk price gain = 100% loss of premium (-$570);
    If 5% stk price gain = 84.8% loss of premium (-$483);
    If 10% stk price gain = 29.8% loss of premium (-$170);
    If 15% stk price gain = 23.4% gain plus full return of premium ($144profit per contract + 570 return of premium).
    If 20% stk price gain = 80.3% gain plus full return of premium ($458 profit per contract + 570 return of premium).

    Now consider the result if you had bought ITM option strike of 60 at $8.05 instead of the 65 at $5.70:
    if no stk. price move your loss = 66.1% of premium (-$532);
    If 2.5% stk price gain = 46.6% loss of premium (-$375);
    If 5% stk price gain = 27.1% loss of premium (-$218);
    If 10% stk price gain = 11.8% gain ($95) plus $805 return of premium.
    If 15% stk price gain = 50.8% gain ($409) plus $805 return of prem.
    If 20% stk price gain = 89.8% gain ($723) plus $805 return of premium.

    As you may note, by buying in the money strike of 60, you have a premium of $8.05 BUT $2.73 of that premium is intrinsic value. I look at the two premiums as almost equal: 60 strike =8.05 - 2.73 = 5.32 vs 5.70 for the 65 strike, and that 2.73 cannot be evaporated even if the stock has gone nowhere by expiration and will be returned, plus the delta is higher than the 65 strike. (That means for every $1 of stk price move the value of the 60 option moves more than the value of the 65 capture more of the move)
    The risk for both options is that QCOM takes a nose dive at expiration and 100% of the premium could be lost. However, unlike the 65 strike, the 60 strike loss does not become 100% until the stock has gone down by 5% (down to $60) whereas the 65 strike loses 100% even if QCOM rises to $64 by expiration. If QCOM price rises by 15% the 60 strike pays a 50% return while the 65 strike pays a 23% return. This is the measure of a risk/reward calculation IMHO.
    Jul 11, 2015. 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orphan Drugs Series: Time From ODD To Market Approval [View article]
    Looking forward to more of these......good info for us investors in Biopharma.
    Jul 9, 2015. 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premarket Biotech Digest: Gilead's Patent Expiry, Galmed Interview, Earnings Season Starts [View article]
    I too would like to see more of this type of concise daily update
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicken Little? Chicken Who? Who's Chicken? Not Us Say Market-Makers [View article]
    Nice article to give us some historical perspective against today's market after the damage of yesterday. Let's look at the same data by mid-July to see how much shift has developed. Thanks Peter
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Most Competitive Wealth-Builder ETF Investment [View article]
    Peter, thanks again for a very thought stimulating article and your response to questions. I find your discourse to be one of the most useful and actionable of all the contributors to SA.
    Your response to the option question was spot on as well. One needs to have a VERY good understanding of the components that make up an option premium and how time and underlying stock price movement affect the option premium. I have had some success in mid-term investing with options by first seeking stocks that have (1. steady uptrend history, (2. significant open interest and volume in the option. Disney is a good example. Options are only bought deep in the money so as to have as close to 95% to 99% intrinsic value thereby avoiding much of the time decay in premium, and with a 3-4 month expiration date. At expiration, if the underlying is still showing a steady uptrend, I roll the position using the same discipline in strike and expiration selection. I use a 30%-35% stop. In times of market uptrend this strategy can be productive. 2015 market has been more of a challenge in finding steady trending stocks which are in a corective pullback to enter a position but they are there.
    Jun 23, 2015. 11:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook Now Payments' Biggest Threat? [View article]
    A very interesting and well written analysis of the task of removing friction from internet commerce. As the treasurer of a Florida homeowners association, I have been searching for a low friction method for our Canadian owners to pay monthly dues with ease, including the exchange rate issue, in our currency and with ease. Well done Karen!
    Apr 21, 2015. 05:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Abbvie, Express Scripts, And Biotech Industry Turmoil Seen By Market-Makers [View article]
    This is just the first shot in a very complex environment. Doctors will virtually all continue to write scripts for the drug with the most proven efficacy unless the patient requests an alternative......and they will make a note of the request in the patient record to protect against lawsuits. For ES to take the harsh approach to not even offer the GILD product at a larger patient co-pay is taking a rather aggressive and risky gamble IMHO in an attempt to gain market share with employers and insurance companies. If other PBMs follow suit, GILD will be forced to offer more discount and the balance of pricing power shifts further from pharma to PBMs, not a bad thing for the patient as long as the final decision rests jointly between the doctor and his/her patient as to what drug and therapy is best to use for a cure. The approach ES has taken to control health care cost is by refusing to provide a safer and more effective cure with a shorter treatment time is injecting PBM too far into the patient-doctor relationship that has served us for so long. This action will have some unintended consequences that we will not like.
    Dec 25, 2014. 02:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment