Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View doubleducks' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Beaten Down Westport Innovations Provides A Lot Of Upside Potential [View article]
    Is our government serious about the global warming threat they continue to trumpet? It would seem not so. Why? Because government could facilitate the adoption of natural gas as a surface fuel to begin replacing the dirtier, higher carbon content diesel for class 8 trucks, without spending a penny... simply tax the truck's fuel by energy content rather than volume and allowing natural gas trucks the same cargo space as diesel trucks so that no loss of carrying capacity is lost due to the larger fuel tank. Would this not be reasonable given the immediate 20% reduction is carbon emissions of nat gas engines, given the supposed immediate demise of planet Earth that governments claim if we don't act now, given there is no other viable fuel to diesel than nat gas for heavy trucks? Secondly, it is odd that shippers such as Wal-Mart, A&B, Lowe's, Corning, etc are pressuring their carriers to use nat gas trucks in order to receive contracts - yet our own government (that touts the imminent and dire danger of anthropogenic CO2 production) hasn't demanded the USPS or its government agencies or the military use nat gas trucks. I find this quite odd.
    Oct 21, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Westport Innovations Slashes 2014 Forecasts [View article]
    1) Locomotives
    2) HPDI 2.0 in China (volume to begin in 2017)
    3) ISX 12 G and sub 9L engines

    CNG refueling infrastructure is accelerating. LNG will be for China and Europe.

    Analysis: Today $7.60 2017: $75

    This is a ten bagger in three years.
    Oct 2, 2014. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    Reading the absolutely irrational responses from the Tesla cult to the rationality of the author of this article, one begins to appreciate what "mania" means.
    Jul 16, 2014. 01:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Westport Innovations Really Headed In The Right Direction? [View article]
    Not sure why you bothered to post this article. Nothing new in data and inaccurate analysis of the data you present. Westport is not in the automotive market which is the bulk of the sales you present in market chart. And in any case, it is the percent increase of total market gained over next decade that would be relevant (which is greatest for the US market) and what you seem to compare is the total market whic is obviously greatest for China, India, etc. Regarding the EBITDA, the last quarter was fantastic.
    Jun 19, 2014. 02:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Tesla [View article]
    Read the following source for a more accurate appraisal of the pollution caused by electric powered vehicles.

    I am no fan of coal, glad when it is no longer used. But it is irrational to electrify land transport, ban coal for electricity production, ban fracking for natural gas, and expect the standard of living in the US to not plummet.

    Your second point is silly. If you believe CO2 is at a level that threatens the stability of the world, then how can you dismiss China's aggressive push for energy, coal, oil, whatever by saying that is what the US did over the past century when the CO2 threat was neither imminent or recognized?

    You are naive to think China will follow the US in its energy policy. China will do what is in China's national interest, not what pleases US and Western Europe environmentalists.

    I am not crucifying Obama - I am exposing his flawed plan. You must have power to generate electricity. Restricting the fuel options will drive up the price. Driving up the price will diminish the demand for electric cars. Can he not see past his last sound bite?
    Jun 2, 2014. 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Tesla [View article]
    Let's cut to the chase. Tesla is out of fuel for growth. The US market is tapped out. Electric rates in the US will skyrocket as coal is phased out and replaced by natural gas. Electric vehicles are being exposed as more polluting than gasoline powered vehicles. China has the largest shale reserves in the world and is acquiring companies that have expertise in fracking. Currently, China is pushing more for CNG vehicles than for EVs since the former is cleaner given that most electricity in China is produced from coal - and that government does not intend to abolish coal plants as the US is - in fact, China builds a new coal fired power plant every ten days on average. So Tesla will not find a receptive market in China - even the very wealthy in China do not view it as a status symbol like the one-percenters in the US do. Also, China will not subsidize electric vehicles more than the CNG vehicles as does the US government - they do not share the irrational fossil fuel prejudices built into the psyche of so many Americans. So Musk has painted himself into a corner of debt with no revenue path out. His personality for outrageous risk taking with other peoples' money has made him very rich, but sooner or later the chickens come home to roost.
    Jun 2, 2014. 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Hum Poses Problems For Tesla [View article]
    you are still using natural gas. Electricity is increasingly being produced by burning natural gas.
    May 19, 2014. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Hum Poses Problems For Tesla [View article]
    So the production of electricity is not polluting the air? or the water? or the environment? keep fooling yourself.
    May 19, 2014. 01:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Fundamental Improvements At Clean Energy Fuels [View article]
    The article takes a biased negative slant on the numbers. First, margins are about the same as for diesel. This is actually a positive - given the initial costs of new infrastructure, one would expect lower margins in an attempt to gain market share. The fact that natural gas can be marketed at the same margins as the established fuel of diesel indicates the intrinsic economic advantage of domestic natural gas over refined diesel. Second, the natural evolution of natural gas as a surface fuel is the building of regional hubs where fleets return each evening. This favors CNG over LNG and requires minimal investment in refueling infrastructure. Garbage trucks, school buses, cabs, airports, off-road sites, trucks on regional day routes. This growth in this sector has been phenomenal, indicating that once the problem of the refueling infrastructure is resolved, firms are quick to adopt natural gas engines. As the local market becomes saturated, the growth will tend to favor over-the-road routes and LNG. This may be four or five years away yet but it will move quickly as did the regional growth. The most recent estimates of growth in NG truck market have increased projected market share of NG trucks to 10% by 2017 and 20% by 2021. This represents a doubling every 3 or 4 years, or 17% to 24% annual growth rate. Profits will come sooner rather than later with such rates.
    May 14, 2014. 01:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Endgame For Natural Gas [View article]
    Thank you for the article - the technology for tanks, both cng and lng, is rapidly improving, bringing down cost as well as weight (Chrysler has a ''deformable" cng tank in development). Daneil H. (above comment) makes good points as well. I would add that Exxon has shown zero interest in building cng/lng refueling infrastructure - it has no motivation to do so since it would cannibalize its diesel/gasoline sales, and its refining profits - so added cost of duplicating refueling to give consumers a cheaper alternative is not in their strategic interest. Which is why they bought XTO - to keep natural gas out of the transportation fuel market - which is why they are pushing for export rights to Japan and China for the natural gas they mine. This will inevitably change when other businesses began to rob Exxon of market share by a growing presence of NGV in the US - then they will build CNG/LNG pumps like crazy, to catch up and drive their competitors out.

    An initiative by Congress or at least the sitting President to accelerate the adoption of natural gas as a surface fuel would pay huge dividends to the economy in taxes, jobs, revenue not sent to Middle East, and national security. So it is VERY ODD that relatively little has been done in this regard - much to the delight of Exxon.
    Nov 20, 2013. 03:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hexagon Composites: Your Best Option To Play The U.S. Natural Gas Vehicle Boom [View article]
    NGV, excellent article. Thank you for sharing your research. This is new stuff, not widely known about yet, so all the more reason to look at seriously for investment.
    Nov 20, 2013. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG's Future As The Preferred Fuel For High-Mileage Heavy Duty Trucks Seems Doubtful [View article]
    You are confusing the markets for cng and lng. No one ever suggested that cars run on lng. The cons listed in this article for lng preclude its use in cars; but in class 8 trucks, the benefits of lng outweigh the cons. The needs are different. That is what is so odd about this article - it's as if he is confusing the two markets. Of course, tank technology is advancing, but I don't think anyone has a crystal ball in that regard.
    Nov 15, 2013. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG's Future As The Preferred Fuel For High-Mileage Heavy Duty Trucks Seems Doubtful [View article]
    OK, so your expertise disagrees with that of the expertise management of Westport. Fair enough. That is what Seeking Alpha is for. But even if you are correct in that CNG will overtake the use of LNG for class 8 trucks in, say the next five years, westport will have made money on their LNG tanks sold in that time - since there IS a market demand for them now - and would probably develop cng tanks if they the demand for class 8 trucks you predict were to materialize. WPRT is not locked into an LNG fuel in any way whatsoever. I am sorry, not trying to be negative - but your article was not original in any way. The pros, cons are all well known; no one argues that cng might not become a better fuel for class 8 due to availability burgeoning from a larger demand from small trucks and cars - IF they can tank it in a volume similar to LNG for given range. Technology can work wonders - Chrysler has just developed a CNG bladder tank modeled on the lung that conforms better to contours, allowing more efficient space usage. But your prognosis is way over the top. And it - judging from some of the initial comments here - can negatively impact naive, uninformed investors.
    Nov 15, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG's Future As The Preferred Fuel For High-Mileage Heavy Duty Trucks Seems Doubtful [View article]
    Obviously the claimed range of 500-600 miles for the CNG truck depends on the size of the CNG TANK! You can have a range of 10,000 miles if you are willing to sacrifice the space to hold a large enough gas tank. The advantage of LNG is precisely that its greater energy density allows a given range to be stored in a smaller space, and space is a premium in trucking.
    Nov 15, 2013. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG's Future As The Preferred Fuel For High-Mileage Heavy Duty Trucks Seems Doubtful [View article]
    Dual fuel (cng/diesel) is now available in smaller trucks. For class 8, the requirements are space (fuel storage), weight, engine cost, fuel cost (why burn diesel when the point is to recoup cost of higher set-up with nat gas savings over years), and emissions (burning diesel requires numerous expensive components by EPA and running nat gas (with 5% diesel for ignition) removes the need for these components. So you would increase the cost of overall operation and maintenance without much benefit in fuel savings.
    Nov 15, 2013. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment