stephenhandal

stephenhandal
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  • Italian OTC Fish Oil Study Has No Bearing On Vascepa Outcomes  [View instapost]
    Williams,

    I sure hope you're right, but you and many others including myself have speculated multiple times when NCE was going to come and it sure hasn't come so far. Furthermore, many are assuming at this point, that we'll definitely receive NCE, yet there is still a chance we'll get NME. It's not over, till it's over.
    May 11, 2013. 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Target Update For Amarin (AMRN)  [View instapost]
    Steve:

    You make a good point about the conference call, but just let Vascepa sell itself and the FDA deal with NCE and ANCHOR. Everything will eventually fall into place. We don't need high numbers being tossed around at this point. Wall Street has us at $7 and that's that. There's no changing the current valuation until Amarin provides more clarity and finalizes some pending items as well as establishing solid revenue. $34 is a long ways away, so let time solve the puzzle and ultimately prove who is right/wrong in the end.

    Sure, the company may be 'inherently' worth >$30 by May 2014 after ANCHOR approval and all the other accomplishments, but does that mean Wall Street will value Amarin at that price? Absolutely not. Just let things play out and we'll see. I have no doubt that the company will be at much higher levels in 2014 than we are currently at, but let's not start making predictions when we aren't in the best position to do so, especially at the levels at which we're sitting. I would love for you to be correct in your assumptions, but at this point, it's much more complicated and the climb up will take time.

    Good luck to all those invested...

    P.S. The only way I see >$25 is with a buyout. Other than that, no way will GIA take us there, at least in my opinion.
    May 9, 2013. 02:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The Bull Argument (Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Vascepa)  [View article]
    First off, good research. Secondly, I don't understand - sorry, but you do or don't have a position in Amarin?

    You state "I’m still bullish but have no position" in one of the comments, but then it states "I am long AMRN" in the disclosures section. If you could clarify, I'd appreciate it. Thanks
    May 1, 2013. 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Non-Move By FDA Tells Us One Thing...  [View instapost]
    DNDNLONG:

    I never made this connection, but you must be 'bullrunner' from ST. How can you make an inference that "it seems nobody values what you have to say" by just looking at the number of followers? Do you really think I care how many followers I have? I don't have a big, strong ego unlike many Amarin longs and I look at both sides. Then you state "you guys" - what are you grouping me as a short? Don't be one-sided and blind to other views. Look at everyone's. perspectives. I don't write sensationalism on Amarin and stuff like that so that most likely explains why I don't have a lot of followers, unlike some on SA. You think I'm a short and what not just based on some of my statements, yet that shows how you're only superficially reading into what I say and don't know me well enough.
    May 1, 2013. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Set To Go After Expanded TG Market In Q4 2013!  [View instapost]
    Coopman: I'd be more than happy to be wrong. I'd like a BO sooner, but I've become more conservative on my analysis regarding Amarin.
    Apr 26, 2013. 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Set To Go After Expanded TG Market In Q4 2013!  [View instapost]
    I agree with you regarding Amarin going alone to buy time and such. I'm just stating that if Joe Zakrewsi wants his 'price'/what he thinks the CO is worth then at least I think, he'll have to get his share price back much higher for a buyout than the levels we are currently at, otherwise it would look like a partnership would be more viable, which I thought was one of the more unpopular options...

    Amarin is currently at $6.80. A $25 BO price from these levels would mean a 267% premium. A $30 BO price would mean a 341% premium. It's not happening, especially at these levels. It's possible, but will take some time. So obviously, that's why I think we'll have to wait till EOY and even possibly early 2014 till our share price climbs back up and till we have more things under our belt/more clarity re: NCE, ANCHOR approval, sales guidance, combo study data as well as clarity from management. We'll see.
    Apr 26, 2013. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Set To Go After Expanded TG Market In Q4 2013!  [View instapost]
    See, the issue I have is what do we base future ANCHOR earnings off of if that's going to ultimately be important for BP? My point is that's why I keep on emphasizing that we need to see sales from the Marine indication over the next 6 months. Although, the Marine indication is only for people with TGs >500 mg/dL, I personally think it will show to a certain degree how well Vascepa is accepted by doctors as well as patients. I know you can make the argument that Amarin only has 275 sales reps, but please, that's more than enough to get this drug off the ground. Prescriptions need to grow at a faster pace than what they currently have been at least in this growth phase. I understand that it takes time for patients to transition from Lovaza to Vascepa and for word to get around, but, for example, we should start to see those 5k (?) samples of Vascepa kicking into the script count, which I haven't

    I'm not sure what you mean by the "positive Reduce-It interim results"? Maybe, you're talking about the dose combo study data? Anyway, the combo study data is due by the 1st half of 2013. So, we should have it by June at the latest.

    Although Amarin has an excellent drug, Vascepa, it needs to SELL, SELL, SELL and SELL. We can talk all about it's potential, but most importantly we need sales. Again, I understand that ANCHOR is the more important patient population, but since Vascepa is a better drug, it shouldn't have trouble selling in the Marine patient population.. We'll see how things pan out.

    In terms of the current price action, all I can say is that I personally think we're being controlled by shorts and HFs and will continue to be for sometime until we reach the breaking point, which I ultimately don't now when that will be. It's going to take either a major catalyst or something to get Amarin back on the uptrend. Technically, the chart is not looking hot at all.
    Apr 25, 2013. 11:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Set To Go After Expanded TG Market In Q4 2013!  [View instapost]
    I wouldn't necessarily say that. I think sales are an integral part right now. Obviously sales aren't all of it, but BP wants to see if Vascepa sells well, which right now, it isn't. I'll give it more time, but it's been 3 months, so things better start picking up. More important than sales is market penetration, which can be to some degree demonstrated by scripts, so those need to start growing as well as how the efficiency/efficacy of Vascepa is, which based on clinical trial results is good. Additionally, we need more Tier 2 coverage to set us up for ANCHOR. Wall Street has not placed any emphasis yet on other supposed 'catalysts.' Although Amarin may be a bit different, large pharmaceutical companies usually value COs at least from what I've seen based on a combination of current revenue, potential revenue, and other things in the future, as well as their pipeline and such. Amarin's pipeline is limited to one drug - Vascepa - so there's a downside there, but it should do well. I do have to admit that the 'side-effect' profile is excellent for Amarin, which should greatly benefit it.

    Plus, I highly doubt BP will pay a 300-400% premium for a company. I was reading somewhere that Soriot (CEO of AstraZeneca) was concerned about his credit rating so he didn't want to do any 'large' deals or acquisitions that entailed an outrageous premium, which would upset shareholders as well as other investors. We'll see.

    Summing it up, I do agree that ANCHOR is the bigger and better thing, but at this point for the next few months, Marine still does matter. Amarin needs revenue and sales. They can't be sitting around and doing nothing.
    Apr 25, 2013. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Set To Go After Expanded TG Market In Q4 2013!  [View instapost]
    @homebuilder_watcher

    But for example if a company values Amarin on its revenue/sales, we don't even really have any (at least right now) - maybe a few million, if that... So that's out of the question. If we even want to consider that, I'd think we'd have to wait a few more quarters to see a trend. Anyway, how would BP value us in your opinion?
    Apr 25, 2013. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Set To Go After Expanded TG Market In Q4 2013!  [View instapost]
    At this point, all we can really do is speculate. Joe Zakrewski and CO have been very quiet and it seems that they will continue to be. Hopefully, we'll hear some news about ANCHOR and what their strategy is on the conference calls, but previously, that has not been the case. Getting the 3 paths scenario again is not good. Obviously, Amarin should leave all paths open for leverage, but they have to be more straightforward with shareholders/investors.

    In my view, Amarin management being quiet allows all this speculation to go on by various media outlets and people, which ultimately does not benefit the stock at all. It allows for the spread of misinformation, which furthermore does not benefit investors.
    Apr 23, 2013. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding To My Amarin Short Position  [View article]
    I personally think that all this speculation wouldn't be happening if management were more straightforward and less private.
    Apr 22, 2013. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout  [View article]
    Brandon, I'm not Steve, but I'll say that $30 is possible, but definitely not right now. Once ANCHOR has been approved, scripts and sales have dramatically increased, an NCE decision has been made, Vascepa has penetrated the market, and good combo results have come out. Plus, I don't see any BP paying $30 until Amarin's PPS has gotten back to $15-16. BP need to be able to justify BO premium and 100% is the maximum I see. It's not unrealistic, but it will take some time.
    Apr 19, 2013. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Non-Move By FDA Tells Us One Thing...  [View instapost]
    I don't think we'll have Reduce-it results till 2015-2016, right? That's a ways away. Is there a chance the company will provide results/data on the current progress for the Reduce-it trial?
    Apr 19, 2013. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Non-Move By FDA Tells Us One Thing...  [View instapost]
    Steve, did I ever directly say that Lovaza was competition to Vascepa on ANCHOR? Absolutely not. Get your facts straight. Also I said that I didn't know if the statement was true or not so relax. Why can't we have a conversation here? All I'm saying is I don't understand why people are saying doctors have to wait for ANCHOR to be approved to prescribe to the 200-500 TGs - people can go get a Vascepa prescription now, although it may be more costly. Scripts need to pick up seriously
    Apr 19, 2013. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Non-Move By FDA Tells Us One Thing...  [View instapost]
    Don't worry I got a good comeback for you. Just wait
    Apr 17, 2013. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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