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Will Short Sellers Have Regrets About Sigma Designs?

As well, the real story may ultimately be that Sigma winds up taking market share from Broadcom in the Cable modem space when it transitions to Docsis 3. That market is many times larger than the IPTV market and a few percentage point of share will more than compensate for what Broadcom gets in IPTV. They are partnered with Texas Instruments in that market and I expect at least 1 big win by mid 2010. Broadcom won't be able to sell many IPTV chips if any until then. Aside from BT, they can't sell to ATT until the chips have been certified and seasoned for 6 months.

15 Overvalued Small Caps from Russell 2000

How you can include drug/diagnostic development stage companies in this list is beyond comprehension.

Sigma Designs Should Fall on Lost Blu-ray Customer

This shouldn't be a big surprise to anyone. The company has talked at length about loss of market share this year which necessarily implies that they will lose some customer relationships for a while. Panasonic is now making their own chip and other Japanese manufacturers are getting more aggressive.

Sigma has already stated that their goal is to control about 1/3 of the Blu-Ray market going forward. Next year when their new chip ships in volume the surprise may be that ther market share approaches 40%. But in my mind, this would be pretty decent given the enormous size of the market and the sophisticatio of their competition. How many companies can go one-on-one against Japanese electronics companies and still come out with 30% to 40% share?

No question that they fumbled the ball here getting the new design out in time, but remember this is a four quarter game and the next generation chip will have a very competitive feature set.

Sigma Better Designed for 2009

I agree but might add that there are more than a few wild cards out there that could start the acceleration a little sooner--perhaps in the 4th quarter of this fiscal year. One of the big ones is France Telecom. They already have close to 2 million installs and are adding new subs at a quick pace. It appears that Sigma is the winner but the orders have yet to be announced.

The recent announcement that Chunghwa seems to be going toward Microsoft Media Room could be a fairly big positive. The initial arders that have already been talked about appear to be to customers outside of Chunghwa main installed base. But if they swap out their exisitng Linux base, this would be very big and could come on quickly.

I would also strongly recommend that potential investors keep an eye on the new Microsoft Mediaroom wins in Russia. This is a very powerful wildcard for Sigma none of which is in anyones numbers for this year or next!

Longer term, Broadcom is still spinning their IP TV chip and if they don't finish the chip by July August, they could miss all of next year. You can only work on the software after the hardware is done. Each spin fixes some problems and creates new ones--just ask ST Micro. Also, some folks don't realize is that even if Microsoft were to certify the chip tomorrow, they would enforce a 6 month "seasoning" period before letting Broadcom ship it to potential customers. So even if Broadcom completes the chip by September of this year, it is unlikely that they could garner much of an already intrenched market position.

Longer term people are forgetting about Ultra Wideband which could be a huge new leg for the company to stand on. UWB can eliminate the use of all the cables connecting home center devices. Telcos want to use it to transport content over existing Coaxial cables. It will even have applications in cellular devices.

All in all this is a young company (in this iteration) and they will get better at predicting their quarters--a COO and a new ERP system will help. Right now their visibility into ther customers is probably limited.

So the main hurt this year has come from the delay in the completion of their new Blue Ray chip. Once that ships, SIGM will likely regain much of their lost market share as companies like Samsung and Sony would never give business to Panasonic (the current leader in the race) who they view as a major competitor.

Finally with the advent of their next generation cable chip, Sigma will compete against Broadcom in their home court. The new TI solution, though 2 chips will still be a formidible entry in the IP TV over Cable set top business.

Fiscal 2010 could easily be closer to $340MM with a few things going their way and the stock will be rewarded with higher multiple as it still as a growth story!

Geniptope: Remarkable Cancer Product, But Business Prospects Weak (GTOP)

This report is blatantly inaccurate and misleading on many counts. There could be a very strong value proposition given that it can help about 60% of NHL patients and of those it cn actually cure 50%.

Rituxin is standard of care currently and costs a lot more than $9,000. It actually costs between $500,000 and $1,000,000 from diagnosis to death. Rituxin, unlike MyVax kills all b-cells. Patients eventually become refractory to Rituxin and no other treatment alternatives exist. Iterestingly, Rituxin was invented by Ron Levy from Stanford University who is also the inventor of the personalized vaccine method that Genitope is commercializing. Furhtermore, the company isbeinning trials soon on a more targeted from a Rituxin which if successful would be a blockbuster drug inits own right.

The company has never disclosed what they intend to charge for MyVax so I don't know where Will Ray came up with $65,000. As far as it being a small market--nothing could be further for the truth as it is the 4th or 5th most common cancer with ~40,000 new cases per year (350,000 currently diagnosed) a large percentage are of the indolent variety which is what MyVax is aimed at.

Around 175 people have already been treated in a combination of phase 1 and 3 trials all of which showed similar results.

What Will Ray is missing is that NHL usually affects older people and being that the variety that GTOPis treating is slow to progress, there is no rush to treatment. They will likely find out about MyVax and demand it from their onclogists. Who would not want a 25% chance to be cured and worst case you can still go on to Rituxin at a later date given that the immune sytems are not compromised.

Valuing GTOP as worth 0 is ridiculous. I value this report a 0.