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gwenace

gwenace
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  • Nokia's Shares Are Benefiting From Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    Sorry, I should have clarified. The volatility is acceptable, however, the 10% loss, is unjustified if taking the middle-long term into consideration. i.e. it was highly unlikely that the stock would tank 10% and not come back for a long time *on that piece of news* (if all investors were that cautious and careful then nobody would be losing money!). The only solid game changer at the moment is Q4 earnings. If the stock continued to tank on Thursday, it would be likely due to rumors/pre-annoucements of poor Q4 results.

    Tax evasion is a very sensitive issue for every business. Based on what has been revealed by the Indian income tax department, "Nokia has changed its accounting model and is reorganizing its existing business model", Nokia's case is extremely ambiguous at this moment. I remain highly skeptical of the accusations and the potential negative impacts at this point.

    Others have also pointed out that tax issues will take years to resolve, and the Indian government could easily "change their mind" due to many other considerations.

    I'm sure we will all follow up on the news and watch what happens. My opinions can certainly change, but if and only if situation changes fundamentally.
    Jan 13 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Shares Are Benefiting From Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    I agree with a few other people on that the core reason behind the tank is market manipulation by insiders in either or both long and short positions. The issues that popped up right around that time could not create immediate catalysts (or more explicitly, they have nothing to do with Q4 results) and the more than 10% dip was not fully justified - this was what pushed me to buy on the dip.

    I may not be as optimistic as others in terms of price target in the near term, and I don't expect Nokia to have a safe ride up, I will take profit and trade it along the way, but I do see solid continued upside in the long term.

    I also see your point of view and believe that taking profit is always a good, if not the best, move. I sold half of my position on Thursday opening because I was scared on Wednesday, too, and was too happy and surprised to see it went back up (I was honestly prepared to buy more at even lower prices). But I never really had high hopes of Q4 results, I was unsure, and I was expecting a small loss in line with the estimates. Did I buy when I thought it's going to be a loss? Yes. Would I hold if there is a good chance of profit? Of course!

    Despite the foreseeable volatility on the ride, I am a firm believer in Q1 results unless the supply issue doesn't get solved ASAP, or if the analysts expectation rises to too high for Q1. Based on the general Chinese market sentiment, I don't think the demand is an issue.

    Needless to say, nobody really knows what the numbers are gonna look like. But I think the risk/reward is in our favor.
    Jan 13 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Thank you very much! I understand it much clearer now. To summarize, "Short Squeeze" should be considered in two folds:

    1) Option players in a short position, namely the put holders. They are under very clear time pressure (expiration dates).
    I made a stupid mistake in talking about call holders/put writers earlier - they are not the ones in a hurry. Sorry about that.

    2) Share shorters, no option. Similar to long holders, shorters aren't under any clear time pressure, as long as they can meet the margin requirements and willing to pay any interest on borrowed shares.

    There is also long squeeze, but to a much lesser extent than short squeeze (thus less frequently heard of) because the downside of long positions is limited, you can only lose as much as you bought; while shorters maybe required of additional capital as the stock goes up and can lose, in theory, unlimited amount of money, as a result shorters are pressured more to take actions wrt price changes.

    Please correct me again if any of the above doesn't hold true. Thank you again! :)
    Jan 13 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Thank you for the explanation! Honestly I never paid attention to the expire dates, and never noticed that they are on Saturdays [Fridays] (despite having passed an actuarial exam on options...shame on me!). Next week we will continue to see options being exercised, this is awesome. (If I knew this I would have held onto my shares on Thursday! haha)

    However, please correct me if I am wrong, the option expiration effect is a separate issue from the short squeeze. On expiration, the call option holders and put writers are forced to buy the shares, pushing the price up. This is separate from shorters buying back their shares.

    I totally agree that the continued price increase may not be largely contributed by brand new investors to Nokia, but I expect that to naturally have an increasing impact on volume and share price.
    Jan 13 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    OldWarrior, great point made. The "crazy growth" sentiment does wonders, AAPL was a prime example. If the Q4 earnings don't disappoint (which is unlikely it seems), the stocks will continue to grow at an astonishing rate.
    Jan 12 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Shares Are Benefiting From Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    If you don't count the big tank right before the jump, the growth on a good news isn't that impressive - it's within the normal range. The large percentage comeback did, however, attract new investors' attention, resulting in the contitued party on the following day.
    Jan 12 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    I think a non-margin account could have the 3-day settlement issue. I've traded with HSBC in Canada before with a non-margin account, and I had to call them to place a trade if I wanted to use the money within three days; they would "lend" me money. (This was 3 years ago.)
    Jan 12 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Great advice, thank you! I am thinking of getting some calls for long term play on a down day.
    At the moment the volitility worked in my favor a few times (always buy on dips and take profit after the comeback). Who knows what will happen later.
    Jan 12 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia: What The Heck Happened? [View article]
    I think Project Shield is a waste of time and money in this market enviornment. As you pointed out in the article, most Android games focus on the touchscreen experience, there just aren't that many games, if any, worth playing on an Android console, unless they are already available on a console.

    On top of that, there is GameKlip (http://bit.ly/13qELIn) that does what Project Shield intends to do, and cheapter. The difference is that current phones don't have Tegra 4 yet, but Tegra 3 or equivalent are good enough for probably all the games available on Android.

    Disclosue: No position in NVDA.
    Jan 12 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    A friend of mine who never invests in stocks brought up today that she saw on news that Nokia's stocks grew 20%. This makes me think that a lot of new investors, especially retail, are paying attention to Nokia. They maybe putting their money in Nokia thinking it will grow faster than any other stocks. This certainly will make the stock goes up faster, but at the same time, make it more volitile. it's important that we watch for dips and load up when we can.
    Jan 12 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Hey Charles, since you are using a TFSA account in Canada, you should also consider taking profit and buying back as much as you can. TFSA account has annual limits, BUT if you money grows inside your account, that money increases your contribution room.
    Jan 12 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Thank you for the advice! I really appreciate it. On your advice, I would like to add again before it reaches $5, but I don't think it will happen today.

    As a small fish, I've made rushed mistakes several times, and I regretted it every time. It is very hard to avoid them. This time I am prepared to miss out the gain from $4.75 to $5. while remaining hopeful to see NOK in the $4.40 - $4.50 range again.
    Jan 11 02:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Two days up big, unexpectedly. This certainly feels like the Jan 8 - 9 reversed...:)
    As much as I like to chase the price, I have been telling myself to be patient to wait for a better deal.
    Jan 11 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    This article is funny...Nokia is in its title but it only has one sentence about it.
    Jan 11 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Update - Profitability Is Back, But Future Still In Doubt [View article]
    I fully agree there! Many Chinese have some emotional attachment to Nokia. The giant was a legend in the market, known for their superb quality and features. The anti-Korean mood is very noticeable, which is one of the reasons why Lenovo phones are doing surprisingly well there.
    Jan 10 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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