During one of the greatest energy commodity bull markets ever (i.e. occurring basically from 2001-2008), in my opinion one company stood out by being absent from the high-profile deal making, complicated capital structure optimizing activities, and piling into that month's splashy acquisition into the most trendy play. That company was EOG Resources.
DVN and CHK have spent the last decade plus doing deals to get involved in plays, but have always had mediocre success when it came thru the drillbit. DVN recognized and quickly acquired a dominant position in the largest natual gas play in the country--the Barnett Shale. EOG quietly acquired acreage that extended the play and optimized drilling techniques that led to increased productivity and lower cost. Indeed, over the past decade EOG routinely scores the lowest finding, development, and operating costs among its large-cap peers.
Virtually all growth has occurred organically. Nearly all their assets are in North America--no political risk to deal with as you have with other independents who look offshore for growth. Almost all their assets are onshore--no hurricanes or multi-million dollar dry hole risk.
Finally, management has leveraged its horizontal shale-gas drilling techniques by applying them to emerging oil plays--most notably the Bakken in North Dakota. The senior management team is among the most professional and understated group out of any of the independents.
What's the catch? The stock typically trades at a premium to most of the other large-cap independents. In my opinion, its worth it! It is an easy to understand story, with a simple, lean capital structure and excellent history of under-promising and over-delivering. Most investors are finally waking up to the fact that this formerly natural gas pure play is morphing into a 50/50 North American oil/gas play. If you believe higher prices for energy commodities are ahead like I do, you should turn first to EOG as a place to put that speculative capital.
Let me caveat my comments by saying that I do not know alot about analyzing banks. The accounting and financial presentation of these companies is significantly different than most other industries I have covered. That having been said, I have invested in banks and other financial institutions in the past, so I know enough to be conversant in the financials, or--from a different perspective-- enough to be dangerous.
This little bank was lucky enough to find itself in one of the most defensible places during the financial debacle--Texas. They did not get involved in residential lending (i.e. subprime mortgages), and stayed focused on secured commercial lending in a state whose economy has been largely unaffected by the collapsing national economy, due to the energy industry. It's a 'good-ole-boy' bank, as senior management came from EDS and other local successful companies, and they use their local ties and relationships to get business.
However, they were not completely immune to the bad economy, as their ROA and ROE have declined notably in the past 12 to 18 months and they have had increases in non-performing loans and net charge-offs. In the quarter just reported, their non-performing loans have continued to creep up (roughly 2% from 1% 18 months ago), and they are under-reserved for these loans. So things have not notably improved, despite a notably improved economy in 3Q. That's probably why the stock sold off after it announced earnings the other day.
Plus, the stock is not cheap--it has like a 20x P/E and it trades like 1.5x book value. I think you can find cheaper regional bank stocks with improving fundamentals. If you want to make a bet on a recovering Texas, that is a way to go but I wouldn't expect any meaningful appreciation until early Spring next year.
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EOG--A driller's driller
DVN and CHK have spent the last decade plus doing deals to get involved in plays, but have always had mediocre success when it came thru the drillbit. DVN recognized and quickly acquired a dominant position in the largest natual gas play in the country--the Barnett Shale. EOG quietly acquired acreage that extended the play and optimized drilling techniques that led to increased productivity and lower cost. Indeed, over the past decade EOG routinely scores the lowest finding, development, and operating costs among its large-cap peers.
Virtually all growth has occurred organically. Nearly all their assets are in North America--no political risk to deal with as you have with other independents who look offshore for growth. Almost all their assets are onshore--no hurricanes or multi-million dollar dry hole risk.
Finally, management has leveraged its horizontal shale-gas drilling techniques by applying them to emerging oil plays--most notably the Bakken in North Dakota. The senior management team is among the most professional and understated group out of any of the independents.
What's the catch? The stock typically trades at a premium to most of the other large-cap independents. In my opinion, its worth it! It is an easy to understand story, with a simple, lean capital structure and excellent history of under-promising and over-delivering. Most investors are finally waking up to the fact that this formerly natural gas pure play is morphing into a 50/50 North American oil/gas play. If you believe higher prices for energy commodities are ahead like I do, you should turn first to EOG as a place to put that speculative capital.
An ignoramus's view of TCBI