Corn Yield Estimate Likely To Drop Further [View article]
Dancing...
Well...many private models say 119 to 122 bu/acre is the most likely figure and as of Friday and since corn moved up only 14 cents this past week vs the 24 cents that reflects the 119 bu/acre figure. It looks like the Dec future high of 820 will be taken out.
Additionally 5 day and 30 day weather forecasts are still below their respective means.
The blow off associated with a market top has not occurred and a couple of limit up days in both corn and beans are still very possible. If this happens we are looking at tops for Dec corn at 8.50 to 9.00 and Nov beans at 17.30 to 18.00. While these prices may not be justified on fundamentals the specs will be wading in at the top and provide enough energy to drive these markets.
We have all seen it before and sadly it will end in a very volatile manner which will leave a lot of bleached bones on the trading desks..
I wish all Corn analysts and traders the best in grappling with these markets as we enter the fall harvest.
Today In Commodities: More Downside For Crude? [View article]
Matt
You are probably right about a crude sell off.
But...
What if Bonds spike on Fed announcement on Wed. Sales before the announcement (at 151-10 area ) could be risky.
and...
is there any way you could wait to short Nov Beans till USDA reports on the status of the grain and soy crops and their yields on Sept 3 ? We still haven't seen a limit up exhaustion in these. Nov Beans could be at 1765 by August 8 ...IF... weather and exports remain the same.
Dec Corn could trade below 7.90 and still be good on the upside. Plenty of support at 7.71 check your chart(s).
Just a suggestion....
Models are still Long Soy and Corn from last Thursday with stops at entry for NO risk.
Today In Commodities: Corrections, They Are A-Coming [View article]
Matt,
Models say...the objective for Sept Crude is 95.15 If Crude hits 92.00 this week, then we hit 95 next week. Otherwise 95.15 should occur before August 3.
and...
Riding long Sept Silver position(s) from 26.76 (see Friday's post). Stops at entry and Noooo risk from here on.
Today In Commodities: Friday The 13th Not Very Superstitious [View article]
Matt,
June and Sept Dollar index never came close to 84 in Mid May. High for the June Dollar on May 18th was 81.83 and....in fact the high for the June Dollar during the month of May was 83.29 on the last trading day of the month.
High for the Sept Dollar in the month of may was 83.65. Both of those resistance areas were taken out recently.
For this week My models say that Sept Euros will present a nice buy opportunity after a buy signal is generated
The others are the purchase of Sept Silver (which is already on a buy signal) in the 26.760 area with a 28.800 objective.
...and the sale of the Dollar index after a sell signal is generated
working with $1000 risk in Dollar index and Euro and $2500 risk in silver.
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Daily RBOB [View article]
Matt
Keep in mind that the seasonal influence on mogas is for the highs to be hit by August 10. This leaves about 20 trading days to run up.
Since the RBOB Market has been trending lower it looks like any rally would be short and sweet. Without a big upward push in crude its hard to imagine mogas running up. I think the short side on any rally will bring huge returns after August 10. $2.89 looks like a nice entry for the shorts.
Today In Commodities: In The Bear Camp [View article]
Matt,
From your May 23, 2012 post
"In the last week gold rallied $70 to only retrace almost that entire amount. The idea of buy and hold is dead. However this may sound familiar ... be a buyer with both hands around $1,535 in June. Also be willing to cut and run on a close below $1,515 because if that level is breached we are likely headed lower."
Whatever happened to your $1,000 risk parameter? Remember, offsetting based upon close only expands risk. Say, Gold were to close at $1500 per oz. Those traders would suffer additional losses beyond the $2000 parameter you advised. I suggest you ditch the "close only" recommendations going forward.
Today In Commodities: Damage Already Done [View article]
Matt
July Wheat is my trade of the week. Long from Sunday night Buying pullbacks to 605. Liquidating at 634.50 Reestablishing below 610. Risk 20 cents a bushel
Cant believe you have no comments Wednesday evening.
I'm posting this on Thursday at 9:30am. Here is a little sharing of my work.
Over the weekend my models identified these two as the "trade(s) of the week" Short Bonds from145-00 w $1000 stop loss Short Corn from 620.00 w $1000 stop loss
Will take profits on 1/3 of my positions at 143-18 and 575.00 respectively. Risk free stops are in place for both.
Today In Commodities: European Contagion [View article]
Matt...
Welcome back.
Reality check here. You suggested crude shorts cover at 106, and following that suggested only "aggressive traders" go short at about 105.
Looking at a normal distribution of traders, about 66% would be average risk traders and the remainder would be split between aggressive and risk adverse traders. That means aggressive traders comprise 16% of your sample and 84% of traders are Not aggressive.
So while you cautioned 84% of your followers/traders NOT to enter the short crude trade by limiting exposure to "Aggressive Traders" only, its noteworthy that you reach back to your 4-6 week old forecast to imply that you were correct.
Further those that sold at 101 to 103 some 4 weeks ago had to withstand $3000 to $5000 of angst before you released them (cover your shorts) at 106 for losses which were way way above the $1000 risk tolerance you embraced a few weeks ago.
So all in all about 1 trader in 6 would have caught the crude move down,(myself included) and the rest were stopped with (huge) losses. Not exactly an "A " rating
And...by the way since you anticipated Gold to sell off from about 1670 and thought 1550 was on the horizon, why didn't you offer a short opinion ? $12,000 Dollars isn't chump change.
Finally...Your resilience with your opinion on the sale of silver is commendable. That one worked out admirably. A month ago silver was 32 and early Thursday morning it cleared 29 for a $15,000 per contract gain. That gets an "A"
Today In Commodities: An Overzealous Fed [View article]
bernie,
The reason platinum isn't covered is that it trades only ~7000 contracts per day. Gold trades ~150,000 contracts a day. So liquidity and order fills in platinum are not as good as gold or silver or copper.
Platinum usually trades at a premium to gold. However it now trades at a $70 discount. Traders that follow this spread will look for signs of a narrowing toward even money to take advantage of the opportunity.
Corn Yield Estimate Likely To Drop Further [View article]
Well...many private models say 119 to 122 bu/acre is the most likely figure and as of Friday and since corn moved up only 14 cents this past week vs the 24 cents that reflects the 119 bu/acre figure. It looks like the Dec future high of 820 will be taken out.
Additionally 5 day and 30 day weather forecasts are still below their respective means.
The blow off associated with a market top has not occurred and a couple of limit up days in both corn and beans are still very possible. If this happens we are looking at tops for Dec corn at 8.50 to 9.00 and Nov beans at 17.30 to 18.00. While these prices may not be justified on fundamentals the specs will be wading in at the top and provide enough energy to drive these markets.
We have all seen it before and sadly it will end in a very volatile manner which will leave a lot of bleached bones on the trading desks..
I wish all Corn analysts and traders the best in grappling with these markets as we enter the fall harvest.
Make it a great week
ik1
Today In Commodities: More Downside For Crude? [View article]
You are probably right about a crude sell off.
But...
What if Bonds spike on Fed announcement on Wed. Sales before the announcement (at 151-10 area ) could be risky.
and...
is there any way you could wait to short Nov Beans till USDA reports on the status of the grain and soy crops and their yields on Sept 3 ? We still haven't seen a limit up exhaustion in these. Nov Beans could be at 1765 by August 8 ...IF... weather and exports remain the same.
Dec Corn could trade below 7.90 and still be good on the upside. Plenty of support at 7.71 check your chart(s).
Just a suggestion....
Models are still Long Soy and Corn from last Thursday with stops at entry for NO risk.
Make it a great day !
ik1
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Bonds [View article]
What if Bonds go to their projected high for the year of 156-30.
Do you think they would be a great sale there?
ik1
Today In Commodities: Corrections, They Are A-Coming [View article]
Models say...the objective for Sept Crude is 95.15 If Crude hits 92.00 this week, then we hit 95 next week. Otherwise 95.15 should occur before August 3.
and...
Riding long Sept Silver position(s) from 26.76 (see Friday's post). Stops at entry and Noooo risk from here on.
Make it a great day.
ik1
Today In Commodities: Confidence Lacking [View article]
Sept Silver is breaking out on the upside Tuesday am. Models are looking for 27.76 today.
Make it a great day
ik1
Today In Commodities: Friday The 13th Not Very Superstitious [View article]
June and Sept Dollar index never came close to 84 in Mid May. High for the June Dollar on May 18th was 81.83 and....in fact the high for the June Dollar during the month of May was 83.29 on the last trading day of the month.
High for the Sept Dollar in the month of may was 83.65. Both of those resistance areas were taken out recently.
For this week My models say that Sept Euros will present a nice buy opportunity after a buy signal is generated
The others are the purchase of Sept Silver (which is already on a buy signal) in the 26.760 area with a 28.800 objective.
...and the sale of the Dollar index after a sell signal is generated
working with $1000 risk in Dollar index and Euro and $2500 risk in silver.
Make it a great week.
ik1
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Daily RBOB [View article]
Keep in mind that the seasonal influence on mogas is for the highs to be hit by August 10. This leaves about 20 trading days to run up.
Since the RBOB Market has been trending lower it looks like any rally would be short and sweet. Without a big upward push in crude its hard to imagine mogas running up. I think the short side on any rally will bring huge returns after August 10. $2.89 looks like a nice entry for the shorts.
No analysis here. Just my opinion.
ik1
Today In Commodities: Vote Heard Across The Land [View article]
If you think Soybeans are going lower, then here is some help.
My Trade of the Week for June 18 through June 22..
Selloff in Nov Soybeans looks imminent and a great opportunity going forward. Short from 1320 and looking to add.
ps...Last week the Trade of the Week had the purchase of July Nat Gas before the report.
When its good its very good, and when its bad, oh well, we have all been there.
Make it a great week.
ik1
Today In Commodities: Buying Underway [View article]
Looks like we are on the same page.
My Trade(s) of the week going forward
Selling July Wheat 709 Risk 20 cents/bu with 75% probability of success.
Selling June 30 Year 148 Risk to 149. with 70% probability of success.
Enjoy the holiday,
ik1
Today In Commodities: In The Bear Camp [View article]
From your May 23, 2012 post
"In the last week gold rallied $70 to only retrace almost that entire amount. The idea of buy and hold is dead. However this may sound familiar ... be a buyer with both hands around $1,535 in June. Also be willing to cut and run on a close below $1,515 because if that level is breached we are likely headed lower."
Whatever happened to your $1,000 risk parameter? Remember, offsetting based upon close only expands risk. Say, Gold were to close at $1500 per oz. Those traders would suffer additional losses beyond the $2000 parameter you advised. I suggest you ditch the "close only" recommendations going forward.
ik1
.
Today In Commodities: Damage Already Done [View article]
July Wheat is my trade of the week.
Long from Sunday night
Buying pullbacks to 605.
Liquidating at 634.50
Reestablishing below 610.
Risk 20 cents a bushel
ik1
Today In Commodities: Still Heading Lower? [View article]
Your energy paragraph is the best you have ever produced. I'm seeing lots of progress.
Keep up the good work.
ik1
Today In Commodities: Tug Of War [View article]
Cant believe you have no comments Wednesday evening.
I'm posting this on Thursday at 9:30am. Here is a little sharing of my work.
Over the weekend my models identified these two as the "trade(s) of the week"
Short Bonds from145-00 w $1000 stop loss
Short Corn from 620.00 w $1000 stop loss
Will take profits on 1/3 of my positions at 143-18 and 575.00 respectively. Risk free stops are in place for both.
Make it a great day.
ik1
Today In Commodities: European Contagion [View article]
Welcome back.
Reality check here. You suggested crude shorts cover at 106, and following that suggested only "aggressive traders" go short at about 105.
Looking at a normal distribution of traders, about 66% would be average risk traders and the remainder would be split between aggressive and risk adverse traders. That means aggressive traders comprise 16% of your sample and 84% of traders are Not aggressive.
So while you cautioned 84% of your followers/traders NOT to enter the short crude trade by limiting exposure to "Aggressive Traders" only, its noteworthy that you reach back to your 4-6 week old forecast to imply that you were correct.
Further those that sold at 101 to 103 some 4 weeks ago had to withstand $3000 to $5000 of angst before you released them (cover your shorts) at 106 for losses which were way way above the $1000 risk tolerance you embraced a few weeks ago.
So all in all about 1 trader in 6 would have caught the crude move down,(myself included) and the rest were stopped with (huge) losses. Not exactly an "A " rating
And...by the way since you anticipated Gold to sell off from about 1670 and thought 1550 was on the horizon, why didn't you offer a short opinion ? $12,000 Dollars isn't chump change.
Finally...Your resilience with your opinion on the sale of silver is commendable. That one worked out admirably. A month ago silver was 32 and early Thursday morning it cleared 29 for a $15,000 per contract gain. That gets an "A"
Make it a great day!
ik1
Today In Commodities: An Overzealous Fed [View article]
The reason platinum isn't covered is that it trades only ~7000 contracts per day. Gold trades ~150,000 contracts a day. So liquidity and order fills in platinum are not as good as gold or silver or copper.
Platinum usually trades at a premium to gold. However it now trades at a $70 discount. Traders that follow this spread will look for signs of a narrowing toward even money to take advantage of the opportunity.
ik1