The Fed to Investors: 'Time To Jump Aboard!' [View article]
Sir, your underlying bull factors are in reverse.
Back in 1982 rates were too high and the direction is turning lower as such stocks rallied. Now rates are too low and the direction is turning higher, with debts and leverage out of control with many developed nations in a global rolling festering financial crisis. The big bear market probably is not over. US FED and government are stretching themselves to the limit in excess spending, which cannot be sustained.
Developing countries growth have rebounded and many are facing some form of property bubble. Central banks in these countries are starting to hike rates and taking out the enormous liquidity, all this mean asset prices including stocks will either range or decline. China is a good leading example followed by India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Brazil, etc.
Your article has applied past precedents in an illogical way.
US is like Japan in 1996. Soon S&P will turn down after institutional investors have loaded up in stocks. As far as retail players are concerned they will be out of the game for a long, long time repairing their balance sheets and saving up. They have no extra money to play around. When people see friends' homes are foreclosed, made jobless and taking food stamps you keep your savings for raining days. Taking care of families become more important that listening to CNBC pundits.
All outstanding CDS be transferred to regulated exchanges. The Swap assocation was a self-serving interest. CDS is just a highly leveraged product aimed at destroying firms and sovereigns that lined the bankers' pocket. Who give these bankers the rights to create, incentive to destroy and infringe the freedom of enterprises and nations which take many years to build?
Its time for banking to become boring again as banking is basically an essential monopolistic "utility", which investment bank executives have proven time and again that they will exploit the imbedded option to take unmitigated risk at the expense of the public.
Glass-Stegall was a wisdom. And America threw that wisdow away.
Is the Market on the Verge of Collapsing? [View article]
No collapse, but overvalued. Analysts are touting compelling low PE ratio that stocks are undervalued. But bullish forward earnings are based on alltime record high earnings, just like 2007. As usual exponential bullish projections are inducing buyers into the stockmarket, while policymakers are entrenched in socialistic policies, inevitably bankrupting the nations in due course with debts and "free" money. Markets are finally driven by wealth creating private sector, but many governments are taking over this role. Productivity and profitability have to go down.
Why We Should Take Goldman's Yuan Prognostications Very Seriously [View article]
Goldman is talking and wishing this will happen, and probably benefit from it. The Chinese has little reason to oblige appreciate the Yuan and risk destabilizing their country when G7 nations are facing a festering financial too much debts turmoil from failed borrow, spend and print policy. Japan strong Yen plus property and lending bubble in the 1980s is a killer combination that the Chinese will want to aviod. The Chinese instead will hike workers' wages and build a stronger domestic consumption economy. Its difficult for speculators but no Yuan appreciation is the likely outcome.
Big Ben's Delusion: Inflation Does Not Mean 'Economic Recovery' [View article]
The world will be safer if some monetary and fiscal discipline can be imposed on the FED and US administration (which US politicians seem not capable of), if not as the size of debts get bigger and bigger over the coming years and more money are printed, the gravity of problems will increase exponentially. Holders of Treasuries should consider boycotting a few auctions and let yields rise temporarily to check runaway socialistic handouts and QE in the US. When you over-eat for 15 years, some slimming is required before a heart seizure or attack.
Why There's No Reason to Worry About China Selling Off Its U.S. Treasury Holdings [View article]
Global central banks are changing direction slowly but surely. The direction is to diversify out from US debts and US$. Instead of using US$ earned to buy more US Treasuries they are and will increasingly buy more $ denominated commodities, precious metals and US firms and hard assets. Increasing % allocation is also made to emerging countries stocks, bonds and resources. China, Singapore, Taiwan, India, etc are into this trend in a steady manner. Asian and other emerging countries funds are also increasing to buy into each other markets. This is the big underlying new trend among sovereign wealth funds. It is only logical to reduce exposure to huge deficits' running countries and increase exposure to account surplus countries.
Central bankers are watching the lack of financial reforms in US closely. More than $200 trillion OTC derivatives are still hanging around the neck of TBTF banks. US is walking on thin ice.
Euro Crisis is going to be bigger than Asian Crisis. After which this may trigger a global crisis from the US. Debts crisis are bigger and will have bigger impact on stocks than from other events. Big picture: Upside limited, downside unknown.
The Big Double Dip: If We're Really on the Verge, What Comes Next? [View article]
When winter comes the natural course is to conserve energy, do as little as possible, sleep as much and wait for spring. Cyclical economic winter probably is at the door, and had been delayed by huge monetary & fiscal spending. Japan is a precursor for developed nations. High unemployment antidote is lower prices to maintain a certain level of living. High unemployment with high prices will be truly bad for living.
Testy Tuesday: Faber Says U.S. Treasuries Are Junk [View article]
$104 trillion unfunded liabilities and obligations. Lots of it will be funded by Uncle Sam debts if pensioners are going to get their money or health care services. $12 trillion of official government debts and growing fast. Official budget deficits growing at between $1 trillion to $1.5 trllion per year based on most optimistic assumptions. About 50% debts are held by foreigners. FED has already started monetizing the debts by printing money, to buy Treasuries. They will buy more and more as foreigners shun US debts and more debts are issued.
Cut the smoke and mirror, the facts speak for itself. US is the worst junk among developed countries. It is currently bailout by the global US$ sole global currency status.
But this will not last much longer and the currency system will be stressed and in that time gold will probably skyrocket. I personally wish that this will not happen. And this could only be prevented if the US starts cutting down its deficits and live within its means; which means an inevitable global recession for a few years. This is still a better choice than a total collapse of the global financial and trading system that could lead to war, etc.
There Was No Recession - Protecting Investments in Federal La-La Land [View article]
You wrote honestly and wrote well. Mr. Obama, Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Summer, Mr. Geithner, Senators, Congressmen and Americans we cannot afford all these reckless spending, Sir.
Bloodbath in the Markets: Is Relief Coming? [View article]
Why don't FED print more money and give $1mln each to American, and you will be in wonderland.
No one to blame? Leaders with poor borrow & spend policies and constant positive spin, bankers with extreme greed and free Greenspan Bernanke Puts, lawless toxic derivatives not regulated by regulators, people taking loans way beyond their means, FED printing money to prosperity, etc?
None to be blamed except short sellers? Banned short selling and all with be well in America? Why don't you blame the girl who was raped on her for being too attractive and not on the rapist.
US is in the same Japan water-torture of the 90s and 00s show except without huge household savings, without competitive manufacturing exporters, without humility and more debts and unfunded liabilities.
Paul Volcker on How to Reform the Financial System [View article]
15 months after the Crisis not a single effective reform on the handful TBTF banks, lawless Credit Default Swaps, big IB conflict of interests and dubious China Wall, etc while Uncle Sam debts are exploding. So wasteful, so full of smoke and mirrors. Look like the only "policymaker" serious about reforms is the loyal Mr. Paul Volcker.
Why Now Is the Time to Buy Goldman Sachs [View article]
In the next banking crisis, you can be sure no bailout money for GS. Once the casino owner/player does not have a FED back-stop, and with reduced leverage and more transparency in opaque derivatives many of the advantages of optimising hidden hand versus open hands will be diminished. Good luck.
Jim Chanos Is Wrong: There Is No China Bubble [View article]
China stocks are over-priced but not in bubble. China big cities real estate are in bubble. Overall leverage is not a good measure for a big emerging country. Rural borrowings are very low, but big cities household borrowing is significant. Speculation is rampant in big cities. Both city folks and corporations are heavily involved in properties and commodities. China policy makers will not have a choice but wisely deflate this bubble quickly, because it is coinciding with high global commodities prices. High housing and commodities prices are very unpopular with the general public and can create great social disorder. Banks have weak risk management and prolific low quality lending (a lot of corruption) will become unmanageable if bubble gets bigger and crash from higher prices. Chinese policy makers know this and want to aviod a Japan 1990.
But Ben, A Bubble Has No National Boundaries! [View article]
An unrepentent high-priest of unsound finance theory will continue not to see his faults of free, easy money printing policies: 1. Punishing prudent, hardworking virtues of savings with zero interest instead of an average reward of 5% interest. 2. Punishing consumers globally with an indirect tax with higher food, fuel, other commodities prices through de-basing of the US$. 3. Rewarding greedy big bank executives with bailouts and reinforcing reckless risk taking and sales of toxic innovations. 4. Support irresponsible, lazy socialistic policies by monetising/buying Treasury debts that destroy incentives of taking self-responsibility, hardwork and accountability in government and households.
He is accerelating the destruction of US as a mighty nation, as virtues are punished and flaws encouraged on a national and global scale.
The Fed to Investors: 'Time To Jump Aboard!' [View article]
Back in 1982 rates were too high and the direction is turning lower as such stocks rallied. Now rates are too low and the direction is turning higher, with debts and leverage out of control with many developed nations in a global rolling festering financial crisis. The big bear market probably is not over. US FED and government are stretching themselves to the limit in excess spending, which cannot be sustained.
Developing countries growth have rebounded and many are facing some form of property bubble. Central banks in these countries are starting to hike rates and taking out the enormous liquidity, all this mean asset prices including stocks will either range or decline. China is a good leading example followed by India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Brazil, etc.
Your article has applied past precedents in an illogical way.
US is like Japan in 1996. Soon S&P will turn down after institutional investors have loaded up in stocks. As far as retail players are concerned they will be out of the game for a long, long time repairing their balance sheets and saving up. They have no extra money to play around. When people see friends' homes are foreclosed, made jobless and taking food stamps you keep your savings for raining days. Taking care of families become more important that listening to CNBC pundits.
Fixing Wall Street: Abolish Credit Default Swaps [View article]
All outstanding CDS be transferred to regulated exchanges.
The Swap assocation was a self-serving interest.
CDS is just a highly leveraged product aimed at destroying firms and sovereigns that lined the bankers' pocket. Who give these bankers the rights to create, incentive to destroy and infringe the freedom of enterprises and nations which take many years to build?
Its time for banking to become boring again as banking is basically an essential monopolistic "utility", which investment bank executives have proven time and again that they will exploit the imbedded option to take unmitigated risk at the expense of the public.
Glass-Stegall was a wisdom. And America threw that wisdow away.
Is the Market on the Verge of Collapsing? [View article]
Why We Should Take Goldman's Yuan Prognostications Very Seriously [View article]
The Chinese instead will hike workers' wages and build a stronger domestic consumption economy. Its difficult for speculators but no Yuan appreciation is the likely outcome.
Big Ben's Delusion: Inflation Does Not Mean 'Economic Recovery' [View article]
Why There's No Reason to Worry About China Selling Off Its U.S. Treasury Holdings [View article]
Central bankers are watching the lack of financial reforms in US closely. More than $200 trillion OTC derivatives are still hanging around the neck of TBTF banks. US is walking on thin ice.
Time to Sell This Sucker's Rally? [View article]
After which this may trigger a global crisis from the US.
Debts crisis are bigger and will have bigger impact on stocks than from other events.
Big picture: Upside limited, downside unknown.
The Big Double Dip: If We're Really on the Verge, What Comes Next? [View article]
Testy Tuesday: Faber Says U.S. Treasuries Are Junk [View article]
$12 trillion of official government debts and growing fast.
Official budget deficits growing at between $1 trillion to $1.5 trllion per year based on most optimistic assumptions.
About 50% debts are held by foreigners.
FED has already started monetizing the debts by printing money, to buy Treasuries. They will buy more and more as foreigners shun US debts and more debts are issued.
Cut the smoke and mirror, the facts speak for itself. US is the worst junk among developed countries. It is currently bailout by the global US$ sole global currency status.
But this will not last much longer and the currency system will be stressed and in that time gold will probably skyrocket. I personally wish that this will not happen. And this could only be prevented if the US starts cutting down its deficits and live within its means; which means an inevitable global recession for a few years. This is still a better choice than a total collapse of the global financial and trading system that could lead to war, etc.
There Was No Recession - Protecting Investments in Federal La-La Land [View article]
Mr. Obama, Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Summer, Mr. Geithner, Senators, Congressmen and Americans we cannot afford all these reckless spending, Sir.
Bloodbath in the Markets: Is Relief Coming? [View article]
No one to blame?
Leaders with poor borrow & spend policies and constant positive spin, bankers with extreme greed and free Greenspan Bernanke Puts, lawless toxic derivatives not regulated by regulators, people taking loans way beyond their means, FED printing money to prosperity, etc?
None to be blamed except short sellers? Banned short selling and all with be well in America?
Why don't you blame the girl who was raped on her for being too attractive and not on the rapist.
US is in the same Japan water-torture of the 90s and 00s show except without huge household savings, without competitive manufacturing exporters, without humility and more debts and unfunded liabilities.
Paul Volcker on How to Reform the Financial System [View article]
So wasteful, so full of smoke and mirrors.
Look like the only "policymaker" serious about reforms is the loyal Mr. Paul Volcker.
Why Now Is the Time to Buy Goldman Sachs [View article]
Jim Chanos Is Wrong: There Is No China Bubble [View article]
China big cities real estate are in bubble. Overall leverage is not a good measure for a big emerging country. Rural borrowings are very low, but big cities household borrowing is significant. Speculation is rampant in big cities. Both city folks and corporations are heavily involved in properties and commodities. China policy makers will not have a choice but wisely deflate this bubble quickly, because it is coinciding with high global commodities prices. High housing and commodities prices are very unpopular with the general public and can create great social disorder. Banks have weak risk management and prolific low quality lending (a lot of corruption) will become unmanageable if bubble gets bigger and crash from higher prices. Chinese policy makers know this and want to aviod a Japan 1990.
But Ben, A Bubble Has No National Boundaries! [View article]
1. Punishing prudent, hardworking virtues of savings with zero interest instead of an average reward of 5% interest.
2. Punishing consumers globally with an indirect tax with higher food, fuel, other commodities prices through de-basing of the US$.
3. Rewarding greedy big bank executives with bailouts and reinforcing reckless risk taking and sales of toxic innovations.
4. Support irresponsible, lazy socialistic policies by monetising/buying Treasury debts that destroy incentives of taking self-responsibility, hardwork and accountability in government and households.
He is accerelating the destruction of US as a mighty nation, as virtues are punished and flaws encouraged on a national and global scale.