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viperman

viperman
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  • Recent Buy: BHP Billiton PLC [View article]
    I generally steer clear from basic materials companies. They deal in commodities and, unless otherwise proven to me, do not have much of a moat. Coal, timber, potash, iron, gold, apples, sugar, you name it. No thanks. I suppose in the quest for diversity, one might justify a purchase. Or, use the tried and true "economies of scale" argument as a moat in and of itself, which to me isn't much of a moat.

    I wish you luck with this purchase. I generally like your purchases. Not this one.

    Viperman

    p.s. Years ago I bought Bank of America again and again and again as it went down. Lesson learned!
    Dec 18, 2014. 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Erie Indemnity declares $0.681 dividend [View news story]
    Thanks, Erie Board!

    Viperman
    Dec 3, 2014. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expected Dividend Increases In December [View article]
    Sysco doesn't have much of a moat at all. It's a food delivery business. Nobody cares about the brand (unlike P&G). It's not difficult to do its work (unlike CVX or JNJ). It is open to new competitors (unlike MO). I knew a Sysco salesman, and he said it was hard to sell commodities like frozen chicken and cans of corn. It's a wholesaler or distribution company of commodities.

    Some people just look at the scale of an enterprise and say, "wow, that company is huge." Huge company doesn't equal a huge moat.

    Viperman
    Dec 2, 2014. 05:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meridian: A Great Dividend Find [View article]
    I think VIVO is a good buy at this level. I purchased some today (11/14/14). I think the reward justifies the risk. It has been awhile since I have purchased a stock in the health care sector. My earlier were made when the stock was quite a bit higher than it is today. There aren't many stocks out there with 4+ yields now.

    Viperman
    Nov 14, 2014. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unsustainable State Of The Florida Property Insurance Market, Part I [View article]
    j-will - Nowhere in the country is the certainty so great and the price so high as natural destruction in Florida by hurricanes. You can bank on it. And, you can bank on it costing billions. We're not talking a trailer park in Oklahoma getting destroyed by a tornado. We're not talking of ice storms that damage power lines and roofs. We're talking huge swaths of sometimes pricey real estate leveled by hurricanes every few years.

    Why do we keep building where we KNOW the destruction will come? It used to be that people couldn't afford to insure in places like Florida. Those times should come again. Those houses should never be built in the first place.

    Viperman
    Oct 27, 2014. 06:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unsustainable State Of The Florida Property Insurance Market, Part I [View article]
    Why is the rest of America subsidizing Florida's houses? A hurricane is a certainty every few years. Houses get destroyed. FEMA comes in and spends the USA's money, handing it out to everyone. Not to mention the other subsidies to make insurance "affordable". Then, a couple of years, the same thing again. How about we give Florida back to nature and everyone can move somewhere where we don't have to pay to rebuild every few years?

    Insurance shouldn't be affordable in places like Florida. The cost to build and repair is too high. Same with under cliffs with rockslides and in mudflats. Who says anyone has to live there? Make it a park. Yes, I'm serious.

    Viperman
    Oct 27, 2014. 02:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund announces quarterly distribution of $1.2633 [View news story]
    This thing hasn't really grown its dividend in some time. Guess I'll ride it out for diversification purposes.
    Sep 22, 2014. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter If They Matter To You [View article]
    Mr. Crosetti -

    I find pockets of value in dividends here and there. But, you are right, the market is overpriced. I just bought a position in SAFT and I nearly bought another insurer. Last year, I bought industrials. The year before, I leaned toward health care. I like insurance companies right now. Yes, I know, narrow moat. But, I am diversified and have some small positions in insurance companies. I haven't made too many purchases this year. I bought PEP, PM and KO in February since I liked the valuations. I added to pre-existing positions of each.

    As far as index funds, I invest through my 401(k) every 2 weeks (payday), as I have for the past 18 years at my job.

    Good luck to you and your investing!

    Viperman
    Aug 14, 2014. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter If They Matter To You [View article]
    Mr. Crosetti -

    People have been trying to beat index funds in total return since people were trading under that tree on Wall Street back in the day. It can't be done. Not even by today's dividend payers.

    I am a dividend investor because I like the steady and growing income stream, but I am not arrogant enough to think I could beat an index fund in total return over time. And, no, I don't think anyone reading this can, either.

    In answer to your question, do earnings matter? Yes, they always matter. You can't continually fund a growing dividend without growing earnings.

    Viperman
    Aug 14, 2014. 06:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter If They Matter To You [View article]
    I take issue with Exhibit #3.

    Those companies that can afford a dividend are, in general, better capitalized. Those that can afford to raise the dividend have growing earnings. Therefore, all that has been proven in exhibit #3 is that companies that historically have grown earnings perform better than the universe of all stocks. Well, yes, of course. The trick is to predict which companies will be able to initiate and grow dividends BEFOREHAND for the analysis to be helpful to investors. And, that can't be done.

    So, a conclusion that historical analysis of dividend initiating companies and dividend raising companies outperform the market as a whole fails because of this bias. In other words, companies that initiate or raise dividends can afford to do so because of earnings strength.

    Saying that companies with growing earnings AS DETERMINED AFTER THE FACT outperform those that don't grow earnings is not entirely surprising. I'm sure a chart of those companies that have growing earnings over a period of time outperform the market in general exists. The trick is to find those companies whose earnings will grow BEFOREHAND.

    All of these types of analyses of dividend payers and initiators vs. an index fund are biased since they are retroactively judging dividends and, therefore, earnings.

    But, the articles march on. I am a dividend investor, but I don't buy the argument that dividend payers BOUGHT TODAY will beat an index fund in total return over an extended period. That's because future earnings are unpredictable in the total populations at issue. Sorry, DVK, I respect you, but you are off track if you believe Exhibit #3 is helpful to investors. I agree with the rest of your comments, but Exhibit #3 lessens your point.

    Viperman
    Aug 14, 2014. 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pepsi Could Plausibly Deliver 9% Annual Dividend Growth [View article]
    Excellent analysis. I am wary of the decline in soda sales a little more than you. While Pepsi does have other sources of income, soda income is not minor.

    Viperman
    Jun 13, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950 [View article]
    Kudos to the Wilson! Holy cow! Where's his newsletter?
    Jun 6, 2014. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson declares $0.70 dividend [View news story]
    A little on the low side, but I'll take it.
    Apr 24, 2014. 11:04 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Choosing McDonald's As An Income Investment Is Not A Good Idea [View article]
    I respectfully disagree. Over the past 40 years, you'll see periods when McD's does well and not-so-well on a quarterly or year-over-year basis. But, in the long term, it keeps on chugging along. People have been talking about healthy lifestyles affecting McD's since the 80's. It hasn't come to fruition. It's always interesting when blue chips are analyzed based on what happened over the past 6 months as opposed to 20 years.

    There is nothing about its business model that concerns me. The outlook seems fine to me. I own it and I wish I had bought it in the 1990's!

    Viperman
    Apr 23, 2014. 04:24 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 'Sleep Well At Night' Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Hi, alpha -

    I don't concern myself with share price. Consistently rising dividend, earnings and outlook are enough for me. The only time share price comes into play is when the stock becomes cheap enough to buy.

    These mature companies have been growing earnings for a long time, though it is true that large, mature companies may eventually decay and die, per the life cycle of companies. However, none of these appears on the precipice of decay.

    Have a good one.

    Viperman
    Apr 23, 2014. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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