Is China Headed for a 1929-Style Market Crash? [View article]
A run on the banks? A 1929 crash? Don't tell me you are graduated from Wharton. Capitalism is doomed if it's the case.
Now, monday has come and passed in China. The market gapped down over 3% and recovered in no time and ended up for the day. Now what?
I've been so bothered by the fact that so many people are so fixated at the last year's 150% raise of Chinese stock market. Yet, nobody bothered to expand their view, just a bit, just a year or two, further back and see how the Chinese market was doing then. Can you believe that while the country's GDP has been growing around 10% every year, the Chinese stock market went into a multi-year bear whose lowest point was barely 1000 points in 2005? Many company's PE was in low teens! A PE of 10 in a country where the GDP growth has constantly been over 8% for decades! The market doubled from there? So what! Pensioners have been pouring in to the market? Do you even know the Chinese market? From its inception, the majority individual investors have been pensioners and retirees. My mother-in-law has as a matter of fact been in the market for far longer than I have. She actually experienced first hand the horrific bull/bear ride not that long ago.
It bothers me even more to see so many so called "experts/specialist/an... can put on a straight face and put out this kind of "research" without even the slightest effort to try to understand what they are supposed to be "researching" on. Being a Chinese, I have sympathies on those foreigners who have no idea on the country and have to rely on these "experts" for their investments.
The Irrationally Exuberant Chinese Stock Market Bubble [View article]
Even behemothes like ICBC, BaoSteel, have profit growth in 30% - 40% last year. Compared to their PE, is the price really that exuberant? Granted the rate of growth probably can not be sustained for long time. But you will have to do much more than just calling it a duck to convice me it's time to duck.
The Inevitable Collapse of China's Banks [View article]
You can stop reading at "the CEO of each Chinese megabank is a Communist Party crony." Some of the "free world" citizens just can not get their head around the fact that one of the best economic development story in the history of the world is being pretty much driven by a bunch of "Communist Party cronies". Those "cronies" have managed to keep a huge nation facing tremendious difficulties growing over 8% year over year for last twenty years. They apparently had been so ignorant of the fact that their economy was meant to have an "inevitable collapse" for some many times along the way that they couldn't even pause the growth for a year or so.
But rest assured, these "commies" are nothing but tiredless. They will keep working on it, and, eventually, for Milton Friedman's sake, eventually deliver a crash in next decade or so.
China's Latest Financial Coup: Buy 'H' Shares [View article]
:)
Chinese Markets Beginning To Crack [View article]
The Bubble Theorists Have Shanghai Wrong [View article]
Comparing China To The Dot-Com Bubble - Why I'm Short BIDU [View article]
Is China Headed for a 1929-Style Market Crash? [View article]
Now, monday has come and passed in China. The market gapped down over 3% and recovered in no time and ended up for the day. Now what?
I've been so bothered by the fact that so many people are so fixated at the last year's 150% raise of Chinese stock market. Yet, nobody bothered to expand their view, just a bit, just a year or two, further back and see how the Chinese market was doing then. Can you believe that while the country's GDP has been growing around 10% every year, the Chinese stock market went into a multi-year bear whose lowest point was barely 1000 points in 2005? Many company's PE was in low teens! A PE of 10 in a country where the GDP growth has constantly been over 8% for decades! The market doubled from there? So what! Pensioners have been pouring in to the market? Do you even know the Chinese market? From its inception, the majority individual investors have been pensioners and retirees. My mother-in-law has as a matter of fact been in the market for far longer than I have. She actually experienced first hand the horrific bull/bear ride not that long ago.
It bothers me even more to see so many so called "experts/specialist/an... can put on a straight face and put out this kind of "research" without even the slightest effort to try to understand what they are supposed to be "researching" on. Being a Chinese, I have sympathies on those foreigners who have no idea on the country and have to rely on these "experts" for their investments.
Chindia ETF Exposes Investors to 40% of World Population [View article]
China Market Syndrome: Just Deja Vu All Over Again [View article]
This guy must be a victim of Boxers or something.
China's Stock Mania: The End is Near [View article]
The Irrationally Exuberant Chinese Stock Market Bubble [View article]
The Irrationally Exuberant Chinese Stock Market Bubble [View article]
The Inevitable Collapse of China's Banks [View article]
But rest assured, these "commies" are nothing but tiredless. They will keep working on it, and, eventually, for Milton Friedman's sake, eventually deliver a crash in next decade or so.