Seeking Alpha

Bryce_in_TX

Bryce_in_TX
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Bryce_in_TX's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    "With "1400" cars said not delivered in 2014 Q4, how many were fully paid for and really mis-represent the Customer Reservations valuation and how much will it fall after Q1?"

    I take issue with the word "mis-represent". Until it is recognized under GAAP as revenue, it is a customer deposit, a liability. It's like "orders". Until the car is delivered, it's still an "order".
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Claims Of Being Production-Constrained Don't Add Up [View article]
    This service center looks very busy. Wonder how many loaners they have?

    "When I dropped off my car yesterday there was a long row of cars (30-40) going into service. I told my wife I don't think they will get it finished today... at 4 pm it was done and picking my car at 5 pm all the morning cars were parked washed on the other side done with service."

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Claims Of Being Production-Constrained Don't Add Up [View article]
    Well the Honda Dealership will take me somewhere or home if I need a ride, while the car is serviced. But, they don't provide loaner cars for me to drive while it is being serviced. Tesla does. Hence the need for more loaner cars at a Tesla service center.

    http://bit.ly/1j9ElSL
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    @cparmerlee,

    "The point is that there is no cost-benefit to opening the factory next year if they are only going to assemble packs. it would be cheaper to simply continue assembling those packs in Fremont. But one of the reasons to take that year of inefficiency is to start the spigot of cash-EQUIVALENT benefits flowing from the Nevada taxpayers."

    Tesla is building a gigafactory. You are saying there would be no cost-benefit from beginning to generate some revenue from this fixed cost? It would be better to have that fixed cost without some offset from revenues? Makes no sense.

    In addition, do we know what is in the agreement with the city and or the state? It is good for the city and the state to have this work there in the gigafactory, generating employment for the city and revenue through that employment. It's good to scratch each other's back, so to speak, to maintain good relations with the city, since they and/or the state are providing all of these financial incentives. Why is that hard to understand? Our city did a lot of this, including while I was employed by the chamber of commerce. The chamber owned the land off of which a number of businesses leased/purchased for their business locations. We were a board of industry as well as a chamber of commerce. We helped and facilitated businesses to locate to our city, providing financial incentives for them to do so. In some cases we gave the land, which the chamber owned, away. In other cases the purchase price was reduced.
    Feb 28, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    Roddy Pfeiffer,

    This all supports my argument. Thanks.
    Feb 28, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Claims Of Being Production-Constrained Don't Add Up [View article]
    "When windshields crack, Safelite will replace it for you at your home, or at your office. No need for a service ranger to take your car away or give you a loaner. Same for a bent wheel. A tire gets replaced at the Michelin store, the warranty is by the tire manufacturer, not Tesla. More than two loaners per service center means a horrible failure record for the Model S where the oldest one isn't yet 3 years old, and the worldwide total of cars is under 60000. "

    I think it is reasonable to have more than two cars at a service center. I am sure the Honda Dealership has more than two vehicles to drive customers home when their car is in the shop. They ask me if I need a lift anywhere each time I take our Accord in for service. You guys are so extreme in your views.
    Feb 28, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorting Out The Tesla Model X Launch: When, How, And Who Are The Buyers? [View article]
    I will add to my plausible explanation for the operating cash flow burn:

    http://on.mktw.net/1C5...

    Tesla is in an early growth stage as explained above. Give them some time to ramp up production.
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    @cparmerlee,

    Having done the accounting for a chamber of commerce in Wichita Falls, Tx, I think it is a common practice to offer financial incentives to companies to get them to locate in your city. The reason is simple: more jobs and more business which increases the city and county's revenues, both from the company and from the employees who work at the new facility.

    We did a lot of this in the 1970s. It was a boom for the city and increased revenues greatly. Some of the companies who located here were PPG, Washex, Siemens, Levi Strauss, Sprague Electric, Howmet Castings, AC Spark Plug and CertainTeed.
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    @Paulo,

    "Btw, in China there are probably 2k cars sitting in the shelves somewhere - OUTSIDE of TSLA's balance sheet"

    What makes you think Tesla has reported these as sold and show up as sales on the Income Statement? To me it is more reasonable to believe this is the explanation for the large finished goods inventory on the books at year end.

    Can you expand what you mean by "OUTSIDE of TSLA's balance sheet"?

    I suppose that if these cars were orders for specific people or entites, Tesla could recognize these as sales when they were shipped, perhaps. But, if the orders were canceled after they were shipped, Tesla hiding this from the auditors would be a major problem. Obviously if 2000 cars are sitting around in China, UNSOLD, the auditors need to know this. Those are not sales and should not be recorded as such.
    Feb 28, 2015. 05:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    @Paulo,
    "Author’s reply » Bryce, not in this would would TSLA ever be affected by anything regarding supply, port strikes, etc, and not claim being affected by it. So if TSLA didn't claim it, it didn't happen."

    The facts are that Tesla shipped over 4,000 cars to China, but only 2,000 registered. What explains the difference? We heard nothing about this from Tesla. So, it didn't happen?

    ">>> Second Link. From 01/2014 to 11/2014, according to the numbers from Chinese custom, 4362 Model S was imported, with a total of 2057 registration, one insider told Caixin, right now Tesla claimed that the average delivery time is about 4 months, but there are many many unsold Tesla at chinese custom.
    >>> Third link: Must had huge expectation in China, shipped over 4000 to China, but only about 2000 registered, in 01/2015, the sales is at a pathetic 120, one guy drove from Beijing to Shanghai, due to unavailability of charge station, the owner had to find charger station by all means, 1300 km (~850 miles) took him three days, after the story publicized online, it cause huge disappointment, recently, another buyer complained online about all kinds of inconevience during his 9 months wait, all these bursted the Tesla bubble."

    Publicity in China about the difficulty in charging, then canceled orders which were already shipped seems very reasonable to me. Or some other reason orders were canceled after the cars were shipped. Now Tesla has a surplus of cars in China, according to the China article. That is as good an explanation as yours, Paulo.

    It sounds to me that there are 2,000 plus surplus cars in China, based on an article. There is the surplus finished goods inventory.
    Feb 28, 2015. 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    evfraud1975,

    "We expect to deliver over 35,000 Model S vehicles in 2014, representing a 55+% increase over 2013. Production is expected to increase from 600 cars/week presently to about 1,000 cars/week by end of the year as we expand our factory capacity and address supplier bottlenecks. Battery cell supply will continue to constrain our production in the first half of the year, but will improve significantly in the second half of 2014."

    What about other supplier bottlenecks?

    I am proposing ideas which may be just as feasible as outright fraud.

    Do I think they have something to hide? I honestly don't know, but apparently you have already made a judgment call on that from your comments and your name. Good luck with that.

    Thus far I can come up with what seems just as reasonable explanations for the problems as saying they are producing cars in mass which are not custom ordered or that they are slowing down production because demand isn't there or that they are burning through cash like crazy without a good explanation as to why. I may be wrong, but I'm not convinced the bears are right.

    Yes, Musk is a salesman, yes Tesla has made some mistakes which border on the outer boundaries of ethical conduct (IMO), but, also, they are under tremendous pressure that can only be appreciated if you've ever been in those boots, and I have. I am not convinced of the arguments presented that Tesla is doing something other than what they have said they are doing. Show me convincing evidence, not mostly unsupported theories.

    Tesla is not forthcoming, so they must have something to hide. Not necessarily. My son was arrested for driving under the influence. Was he drinking? Yes. Was his blood alcohol content over legal limit? We don't know. He refused to take a breathalizer test. Cops assume that if you refuse that you are guilty. He beat the whole thing. No DUI. Do I think he was drunk? By what he told me I don't think so. But the cops wanted to screw him over. Just because you don't do what others think you ought doesn't make you an outlaw and it doesn't mean you are hiding anything. It doesn't make you innocent either. But making a judgment without knowledge is more dangerous, in my view, than not making one at all.
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    Here is a thesis of why the large finished goods inventory:

    Over 4,000 custom orders were received from China, but when publicity hit there about the difficulty to charge the car, the **** hit the fan and thousands of orders were cancelled. Now Tesla has to dispose of that inventory. That, plus the Model 85D coming out in 4th quarter and perhaps some canceled orders there as well of the less capable Model S. All of that would explain the surplus inventory.

    As to slower rate of utilization of plant, would the supply of battery cells have a play in that?

    There seems to me to be logical explanations for the problems besides outright deceipt, although deceipt is a reasonable one given some of the things Tesla has done and said. I'm just not as skeptical of the company as you Paulo. Tesla is not helping itself by keeping silent on things like this.
    Feb 27, 2015. 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Tesla Just Recognized It Also Builds To Inventory? [View article]
    I suspect the answer to my question will show that there are a couple thousand extra cars in inventory, besides what they are using at show rooms/sales centers and service centers. So, what you say makes sense. Where is the extra inventory I wonder.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Can Stop 'Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt' Regarding Demand - But Will It? [View article]
    Paulo,

    A sedan is fundamentally different than an SUV. I can fold down a seat in the SUV and haul furniture or other items in it that I can't in the Sedan's trunk. An SUV is taller from floor to ceiling and has more room than the trunk of a car. I can also haul more passengers in the SUV.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Can Stop 'Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt' Regarding Demand - But Will It? [View article]
    Do you or Paulo have any sales data to confirm your thinking? What I read this morning makes me think it could be wrong.

    "Porsche has shown how easy it can be to make a pile from SUVs. The brand's biggest offering—the Cayenne—accounts for 35 percent of the company’s U.S. sales by vehicle, and adding a sport-utility option hasn’t soured drivers on its 911 sports cars. Porsche even doubled down on SUVs last year, rolling out a smaller model dubbed the Macan."

    http://bloom.bg/17DOwKp

    The Cayenne and the 911 are both in the relative price range of what Tesla offers and plans to offer. This says that the SUV hasn't dampened demand for the sports car, the 911.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,181 Comments
4,198 Likes