Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Bryce_in_TX's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • When It Comes To Tesla, Read Between The Lines [View article]
    It looks like the stock options were fair valued at about $94/share for recording the expense, so $25 million divided by $94/share equals 265,957 shares vested. At an exercise price of $31.17/share and a current market value of $215, that makes his gross salary for 2014 about $49 million.

    That makes the article below tragically inaccurate and misleading:
    Apr 25, 2015. 03:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When It Comes To Tesla, Read Between The Lines [View article]
    "2. Elon has not sold a single share."

    And if I invest $10,000 in a stock in 2012, whose market value is now $2,000,000, but haven't sold "a single share", I am worth $2,000,000, not $10,000. What is the point of your statement?
    Apr 25, 2015. 02:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When It Comes To Tesla, Read Between The Lines [View article]

    " The current proxy shows 0 bonus, 0 Stock Awards, 0 Option Awards and 0 All Other Compensation for 2014. "

    Tesla recorded $25 million in stock based compensation for Musk for 2014, upon certain performance milestones being considered "probable of achievement". In other words, $25 million in stock based compensation vested to Musk for 2014. That is what he earned for 2014. See page 52 of 10-K:

    "As of December 31, 2014 the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:

    Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle;

    ·Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype; and

    ·Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles.

    As the above three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement, we recorded stock-based compensation expense of $25.0 million, $14.5 million and $1.3 million for the years ended December 31, 2014, 2013 and 2012, respectively."

    Musk DOES NOT work for free.

    And the non-GAAP takes this expense out to figure gross margin and net Income. That simply is not credible as the 10-K makes clear:

    "We use the fair value method of accounting for our stock options and restricted stock units (RSUs) granted to employees and our Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) to measure the cost of employee services received in exchange for the stock-based awards. "

    To measure the cost of employee services received in exchange for stock-based awards means there is a value exchange. Not measuring that value and recording it as an expense is ludicrous, but that is what non-GAAP does.

    Does that explain it well enough, "Lucy"?
    Apr 25, 2015. 01:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]
    "Sorry Bryce; Tesla's proven you wrong on at least one point and did so over a year ago--in the middle of winter"

    Let's try Dallas to Portland, in winter, TODAY. No way to get there. The density is not there. Cherry pick all you want. There are many situations where you are range limited and will still be true after 2016. It will take years to get the density sufficient for people who are used to no limitations in an ICE.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]
    "The total cost of ownership is considerably more for a Model S. jeez"

    Proof? "

    Total cost of my car was $24K. We drive about 10,000 miles a year in it. At 25mpg that is 400 gallons a year times $3 a gallon (is only about $2.50 presently for mid grade). I plan on trading it in about 4 years, we've had it for just over two and it has 57K on it and we started with 30K. (4000 mile trip to oregon, xmas 2012 put extra miles on it).

    6 years or 60,000 miles = 2400 gallons X $3 = $7,200 for Gas

    We'll need new tires in a year or so so that's another $600

    3.3 oil changes a year = $40 X 3.3 + engine and cabin air filter once a year at $100 = a total of $235 x 6 = $1,400

    One more transmission fluid and filter change, plus first one= $350

    Tire alignment = $100 x 2 = $200

    Radiator flush times 3 = $300

    Power steering fluid change = $150

    Replace brake pads on both axles = $250

    Miscellaneous = $2000

    Total = $12,450 plus $24,000 = $36,450 (I doubt I'll need $2,000 of miscellaneous the way I keep cars maintained)

    I can't touch a 3 year old Tesla for that price, then you have maintenance and electrical costs for it. The tires are not cheap.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]

    Traveling from Wichita Falls or any city that distance from D/FW or farther away is not going to have enough fuel to get back without recharging somewhere. IT's 130 miles to Six Flags from Wichita Falls, or if you go to Dallas for a day of shopping, that's 145 miles one way, plus the miles you travel in the city. Going back by way of Denton would work if going to Dallas (but SH 380 is not a great road), but there's going to be just one station there. And if you are headed to Arlington to watch the Texas Rangers play or to Six Flags, going back by way of Denton is out of the way by about 20 mile and SH 380 is not that good a road.

    In Nov, 2012 the wife and I went to D/FW to shop for a car. We went to about 3 dealerships in one day, finding what we wanted in Dallas. On the way to D/FW, on the southside of Decatur, they were doing construction with big trucks hauling gravel. We were crawling along for an hour. The wife was about to have a cat, needing to go to the bathroom. So, there are times when things don't go as planned. God help you if you are low on gas or in an EV. There is no station on SH 287 or SH 281, just in Denton sometime this year. That is out of the way if you come in and go back by either of those highways, for whatever reason you come to D/FW.

    How about if you have a child that is going to attend Tarlton State University in Stephenville TX? That is 135 miles one way. Say they are in the band, football team, basketball team, soccer team, golf team, or you just want to spend a day visiting them on a weekend? How do you recharge to get back home?

    Or what if I have relatives that live in Brownwood (175 miles one way) or I live in Dallas and want to go to Amarillo (364 miles)?

    There are many situations where you need more density or longer range. That's my point. The density isn't there.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]
    "Sure, it's still expensive, but it's also a lot more comfortable than your 27mpg Honda or even my 42mpg Fiat."

    You want to talk about comfort? In my Honda I don't have to be concerned about what speed I drive on an Interstate if I am going to visit my relatives in Wyoming or Missouri, or zig zag to get there, or have to throttle back my speed and maybe cut the heater and stereo off to get to the next fill up. Oh yeah, the Tesla is so much more comfortable. Not.

    And then there is the issue of surviving. Will Tesla survive or will the cash demand prove too much for it? IF too much, who will be able to service it and what about its resale value? To me, the jury is still out and those purchasing a Tesla are still early adopters, willing to accept more risks than the average car buyer.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]
    "On the other hand, over the lifetime of the vehicle, the gas savings by using a Tesla would probably let you pay cash for your next Honda."

    The total cost of ownership is considerably more for a Model S. jeez
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]

    "I still want to know why you insist that Tesla needs a Supercharger IN DFW when there are or will be a total of five surrounding the city on every major freeway."

    That is simply not credible. There is NO super charger in the Dallas Ft worth area presently, and will not be in 2015. In 2016 there will be ONE. Denton, Corsicana, and Waco are not part of the D/FW area. Denton is the closest to Dallas of the 3, but from Denton to Dallas or vice versa is a good hour's travel, if not a little longer, depending on your location. So, if you are traveling through the area, you are out of luck as far as a supercharger is concerned.

    What I mean by density as good as gasoline stations is being as convenient as filling up at a gasoline station on a trip, not for commuting or in city driving. At present the only thing available are Chademo and J-1772 connections.

    The trip to CO from Dallas, for example. The density is not as good. It takes you a hundred miles out of the way and at least a couple of hours longer as a result, versus an ICE. You are so steeped in bias you don't see it? Really?
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]
    I have to make a correction to the 2016 map. There is a super charger to be installed on I-20 somewhere in the D/FW metroplex. I misread the map earlier today. So, there will be one supercharger in the D/FW metroplex sometime in 2016, but not 2015, and not several, just one. The other supercharger to be added in 2016 along I-20 looks to be around McKinney or Greenville.

    The other 2016 map has been deleted from the original link I provided.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]

    "Why? Because people who live IN DFW area simply don't need one; they're well within the range of even the S60 for daily driving unless you typically drive more than 200 miles per day."

    I wasn't talking of commuting, I was talking of long distance travel. Until the station is installed in Denton, there is no way of getting out of Texas, and even then you'll be zig zagging your way, a good ways out of the way, to most destinations.

    It will be years before the density begins to approach that of gasoline stations, if ever. The expense is mind boggling to me for one company to be building all of this infrastructure for the US, Europe, and Asia.

    That doesn't mean the car isn't worth buying. It just means it has limitations for the foreseeable future that ICE cars don't. IF you can't accept the limitations, you shouldn't own one.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]

    You are a waist of time. In the link, the most direct route from Dallas to Denver is 795 miles. In a Tesla it's about 882 miles (see gray route), when the stations are complete. Not enough stations have been built yet to get there from Dallas. And even then you are zig zagging. Not the way I prefer to travel.

    Yes, the electricity is free, but your time is worth something as well. I prefer to drive 75, not 65. I drive a Honda Accord at 27 MPG or roughly 30 gallons. 15 of that would be at $2.30 and the other 15 would be no more than $3.00 for a total of $80 one way or $165 round trip.

    You are talking of the expense of gasoline, but overlook the cost of a $100K Tesla. That is so irrational it's funny. Typical Tesla bias.
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]

    "There is one getting installed at the Dallas North Park Center later this year according to the 2015 map, if it's not already there. By the end of 2016 there appear to be at least five surrounding the metroplex, which means no matter which way you choose to leave the DFW area, you'll be in easy range of at least one Supercharger if not more, no matter which version of the Model S you would choose to buy."

    The 2015 map shows one going in at Denton, 2710 W University Dr. No clue where you got one going in at Dallas North Park. See link:

    The 2016 map is the same for the Dallas/Ft Worth Area. See link:

    Two more sites are added in 2016 around the Sherman and Gainesville areas, from what I see on the map, but nothing more for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Nothing is in the Dallas/Ft Worth area at all through 2016.

    Now, the information I provided comes directly from the Tesla site maps. Either show me something that contradicts this, from Tesla, or I have to conclude your information is just an ill informed opinion, and nothing more.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]

    I didn't now you were in Germany or grew up there. I thought asking me if I grew up there was being smart with me. Haha.

    The Lloyd looks much like a VW van of the '60s. Air cooled?

    Most cars in the US back in the '50s and '60s averaged in the low teens on gas mileage, would be my guess. Even today we don't have an energy policy. Us Americans never have been good at fuel conservation, on the whole, IMO. I don't see that changing until a crisis hits. That's how we tend to manage things. Our national debt is out the kazoo, but we go along like we can manage it. A lot of things "should" change, but will they?
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive [View article]

    I grew up in Texas. My Dad worked for the Fina gas station in our little town of 2,000 population in 1955 and bought his own Texaco station, right across the street in about 1956 or 1957. I vacationed with my cousin, aunt, and uncle from 1960 to 1965. In '61 we traveled from Archer City TX to Kansas City KS (or MO not sure which) to watch the NY Yankees play the Kansas City Athletics. We spent a night at Mickey Mantle's Holiday Inn in Joplin MO. We also went to Dodge City, KS, rode a stage coach.

    In 1960 we traveled from TX to Pikes Peak CO via my uncle's 1959 Chevy Impala and also went up through Caddo county OK, where my Mother and Aunt's family lived when they were kids.

    There was no shortage of gas stations then. Stuckey's was one of my favorite places to stop for gas.

    "In 1937, Stuckey constructed his first store building. Much like the former roadside lean-to, the new business focused on selling these Southern candies to highway travelers. This first Stuckey’s shop added a restaurant, then a novelty section, and then gas pumps. The final addition was a teal blue roof (which would later become the company's trademark). Until the onset of World War II, Stuckey’s continued to open stores in Georgia and Florida. The number of stores declined somewhat during WWII due to the effects of wartime sugar rationing.

    After WWII ended, the Stuckey’s business once again began to grow and it sold a number of new franchises. The company constructed a candy factory to supply an eventual 350-plus Stuckey's stores located throughout the continental United States. As the post-war baby boom flourished and families undertook more long-distance auto travel, Stuckey's continued to grow as they were usually constructed along major highways and frequently were paired with Texaco gas stations as well as restaurants and clean restrooms.[3]"

    Don't you remember Dinah Shore singing "See the USA in a Chevrolet"? That was as early as 1952. Think Chevrolet would market like this without a sufficient density of gas stations?

    Then there was Continental, Greyhound, and Trailsways Bus Lines. Those enterprises couldn't exist without sufficient density of gas stations.

    "Regular route bus ridership in the United States had been declining steadily since World War II despite minor gains during the 1973 and 1979 energy crises."

    Ridership declined because more and more people traveled by personal auto. The suburbanization of the US is taught or was taught in college Sociology classes in the late '60s and early '70s. I still remember that from my college Sociology course. Every body wanted their own home and their own car, their own piece of "Americana".
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment