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Bryce_in_TX

Bryce_in_TX
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  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I don't get you, Steve. I am in long term, because I nor anyone else can successfully time the market on a consistent basis. I don't see how staying long, through ups and downs, because of what I just stated is irrational.
    Aug 8, 2014. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    Lensman03,

    I have already addressed everything you brought up today. I am not going to rehash it. I have no investment of any kind in Tesla. Take the hate and lies elsewhere.
    Aug 8, 2014. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Become The Victim Of Its Own Success [View article]
    I have to object to the GAAP results. It does not reflect revenues which will be realized once a lessee keeps the car at the end of a 3 year lease. In all likelihood, the GAAP results are far too conservative (understated).
    Aug 8, 2014. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    "First you say "Your comment is true thus far, like it would be as well for anyone who pulled out of the market right before the meltdown began in 2008."
    as if this admission advances your argument, when it does not"

    Many stayed out of the market as it bottomed in 2009, and stayed out as it started to slowly rise over the last five years. I am saying that if you try and time the market that you will likely miss some upside when you get back in. Anyone trying to time the market is likely to be wrong. That is completely consistent with what I have been saying.

    "If you're nice, I'll tell you when to get back in."

    You are the one with an ego, IMO. I will stay invested,thanks any way. And I see no time horizon on your original comment: "Every day that goes by, the author has outperformed every commentator on this board." Sorry, if I misinterpreted what you were saying.

    The market was down today, but all of my holdings were up, so I still don't understand how you could know the author has beaten every commentator on this thread.
    Aug 7, 2014. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Your comments are meaningless because the time frame is too short. I receive dividends and distributions monthly and quarterly. That figures into the calculation over a meaningful time period of a year or longer.

    He may be doing better over a week or two, but the time frame is too short to have any significance. Also, in the long run, I expect to have a decent rate of return by staying invested in the market. I'm in the market for dividends as much as capital appreciation. Our goals are probably different, making any side by side comparisons meaningless.

    Bottomline, you can't time the market on a consistant basis. Anyone who believes they can is fooling themselves.
    Aug 7, 2014. 05:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Your comment is true thus far, like it would be as well for anyone who pulled out of the market right before the meltdown began in 2008. Stephen may well beat those who stay vested in the market through its ups and downs, but it requires perfect timing which depends more on luck than anything else.

    I hold that it is a ridiculous, meaningless comment.
    Aug 6, 2014. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Stev53e,

    Man, you are judging on a very short term basis. Ridiculous comment.
    Aug 6, 2014. 06:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Regulators Afford Missing Herbalife? [View article]
    "failed to identify the biggest accounting fraud in history."

    I agree it was accounting fraud, but that is not how it was prosecuted. It was prosecuted as individual security's fraud and insider trading, not as an accounting fraud case. The sentences were light, IMO. No one got what the deserved. BTW, it's Arthur Andersen, not Arthur Anderson.

    And there may have been prosecutorial misconduct with the case.

    http://bit.ly/1shVDxD

    It makes me wonder who is minding the store?
    Aug 3, 2014. 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife Revenues Materially Overstated? [View article]
    Doc Brew,

    I don't know that one quarter of data is sufficient to make that determination, probably not. However, I don't see justification for changing the revenue recognition to NO revenue recognition until the 3 or 12 month time horizons have expired because such change would likely understate revenues as bad or worse as any overstatements of revenues due to the new refund guarantee. The logical thing to do is to continue to accrue allowances for returns based upon historical data and adjust those allowances on a quarterly basis based upon historical data. That is what Herbalife is doing.

    Someone would have to explain to me how Herbalife and PWC might have a large liability for doing the rational, logical thing by accruing allowances using their current methodology. I don't see it.
    Aug 3, 2014. 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    David at Imperial Beach,

    In regards to not having to pay out the repurchase guarantees due to a higher resale value - that appears in question at the present.

    Here is what Edmunds had to say about the Model S in their overall evaluation of the car:

    "Bottom Line: The Model S is a fast, comfortable and technologically brilliant luxury sedan, but numerous problems with its touchscreen, tires and drivetrain make it hard to recommend."

    http://edmu.in/1lWClc4

    Here are two other recent articles indicating the resale value may not hold up:

    http://buswk.co/1nYKK4K

    http://bit.ly/1nYRYpe

    If I buy a 3 year old Model S in 2016, I have one year left on the drivetrain warranty, assuming an extended warranty wasn't purchased. I believe I'd be thinking of trying to get some knocked off the purchase price in case I end up having to have multiple repairs done on the drive train in years 4 and beyond, or have to have the drivetrain replaced altogether. That doesn't bode well for the resale value holding up. So, I don't know about your assessment that no resale guarantee amounts will be paid out.
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    "Concerning the convertible debt, the company obviously expects most of that debt to be converted to stock."

    Are you saying the interest expense accrued thus far will not be eventually paid out in cash?

    And as far as anticipating that the repurchase guarantees won't be paid out, are you saying that NONE of the repurchase guarantee amounts won't be paid out? Doesn't seem reasonable to me with or without the drivetrain issue.

    When GAAP begins to account for the repurchase guarantees in 2016 and beyond, most of it as revenue perhaps, Tesla's non-GAAP will have to exclude those amounts making the non-GAAP less than the GAAP revenue probably. What do they do then, begin using GAAP?
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    Illuminati, I am referring to QTR's article ONLY. Any time non-GAAP is used it needs to be clear that that is what the number represents, non-GAAP. That is my point.
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I was in a mutual fund that had a sizeable portion invested in the banks. It made no sense to me to stay in that fund, especially after losing a good amount due to the banks. I sold, loss some, and invested in oil and gas instead, buying Fidelity Oil Services Fund for as low as $33 per share (my initial purchase was at $45 per share). I eventually sold it for around $66 a share in 2011. Did the same with a Fidelity Natural Gas Fund and make about a 50% return.

    If my stock decisions are 50% right, I am doing good. Sure, we all are going to make some mistakes, some of them stinkers, probably. But, other opportunities arise to make up for them.

    The banks were classic poor investments during the great recession, IMO. I consider the fund manager who stayed in them an idiot, and I am being charitable in calling him an idiot. That is why I sold that fund around Sept. 2008.

    I can remember Maria Bartiromo interviewing the ex CEO of Countrywide Financial, I think it was, Angelo Mozilo, and I was thinking how big a crook this guy was. The mortgage debacle was easy to see and understand for me. It was an easy decision for me to get out of financials all together in the Great Recession.

    You sound like an ex wife who was been badly betrayed by her ex hubby, and now swears that all men are pigs, untrustworthy, and no good. The solution for her is probably some counseling so she can see how distorted her thoughts have become due to her experience. The same may hold true for you. In other words, to me your thinking is distorted and out of touch with reality about stocks in general due to getting badly burned in the past. Something to think about, perhaps.

    "Never again!". Famous words of a scorned woman.

    Find solid companies with solid fundamentals and buy into them at below fair value prices. My best advice. The Great Recession has nothing to do with investing in individual stocks.

    http://bit.ly/1seA9CP
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    QTR said:

    "Tesla handily beat earnings and met guidance expectations yesterday."

    I'd like to see this type of statement accompanied with a statement that it is non-GAAP, for good reason. I don't how you justify throwing in all deferred revenue from the repurchase guarantee, since there will surely be some vehicles returned, or leave out legitimate interest expense on convertible debt. After all, we aren't talking about converting to cash basis accounting here. The revenue number is GAAP basis, not cash basis. How do you justify leaving out those items? Then we have the non-cash based stock compensation expense thrown out as well. Again, they aren't converting to a strictly cash basis of accounting. Those are legitimate expenses for the period.

    Tesla may eventually be profitable on a GAAP basis, but what are they thinking with this non-GAAP? I can see why you would add some of the deferred revenue from the repurchase guarantee in the non-GAAP numbers, but not accruing for returns, leaving out non-cash stock compensation and the interest expense, I don't get, honestly.
    Aug 1, 2014. 01:15 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    "I am always confused by people who have a great deal of money buying stocks, why bother, why risk to make more when you already have enough???"

    Unlike others on this forum, I don't have enough, in case of a catastrophic event like a nursing home stay or my wife or I come down with cancer. That is why I put the money at risk to make more.
    Aug 1, 2014. 01:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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