User 4542301

User 4542301
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    "I still want to know why you insist that Tesla needs a Supercharger IN DFW when there are or will be a total of five surrounding the city on every major freeway."

    That is simply not credible. There is NO super charger in the Dallas Ft worth area presently, and will not be in 2015. In 2016 there will be ONE. Denton, Corsicana, and Waco are not part of the D/FW area. Denton is the closest to Dallas of the 3, but from Denton to Dallas or vice versa is a good hour's travel, if not a little longer, depending on your location. So, if you are traveling through the area, you are out of luck as far as a supercharger is concerned.

    What I mean by density as good as gasoline stations is being as convenient as filling up at a gasoline station on a trip, not for commuting or in city driving. At present the only thing available are Chademo and J-1772 connections.

    The trip to CO from Dallas, for example. The density is not as good. It takes you a hundred miles out of the way and at least a couple of hours longer as a result, versus an ICE. You are so steeped in bias you don't see it? Really?
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]
    I have to make a correction to the 2016 map. There is a super charger to be installed on I-20 somewhere in the D/FW metroplex. I misread the map earlier today. So, there will be one supercharger in the D/FW metroplex sometime in 2016, but not 2015, and not several, just one. The other supercharger to be added in 2016 along I-20 looks to be around McKinney or Greenville.

    The other 2016 map has been deleted from the original link I provided.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    "Why? Because people who live IN DFW area simply don't need one; they're well within the range of even the S60 for daily driving unless you typically drive more than 200 miles per day."

    I wasn't talking of commuting, I was talking of long distance travel. Until the station is installed in Denton, there is no way of getting out of Texas, and even then you'll be zig zagging your way, a good ways out of the way, to most destinations.

    It will be years before the density begins to approach that of gasoline stations, if ever. The expense is mind boggling to me for one company to be building all of this infrastructure for the US, Europe, and Asia.

    That doesn't mean the car isn't worth buying. It just means it has limitations for the foreseeable future that ICE cars don't. IF you can't accept the limitations, you shouldn't own one.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    You are a waist of time. In the link, the most direct route from Dallas to Denver is 795 miles. In a Tesla it's about 882 miles (see gray route), when the stations are complete. Not enough stations have been built yet to get there from Dallas. And even then you are zig zagging. Not the way I prefer to travel.

    Yes, the electricity is free, but your time is worth something as well. I prefer to drive 75, not 65. I drive a Honda Accord at 27 MPG or roughly 30 gallons. 15 of that would be at $2.30 and the other 15 would be no more than $3.00 for a total of $80 one way or $165 round trip.

    You are talking of the expense of gasoline, but overlook the cost of a $100K Tesla. That is so irrational it's funny. Typical Tesla bias.
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    "There is one getting installed at the Dallas North Park Center later this year according to the 2015 map, if it's not already there. By the end of 2016 there appear to be at least five surrounding the metroplex, which means no matter which way you choose to leave the DFW area, you'll be in easy range of at least one Supercharger if not more, no matter which version of the Model S you would choose to buy."

    The 2015 map shows one going in at Denton, 2710 W University Dr. No clue where you got one going in at Dallas North Park. See link:

    The 2016 map is the same for the Dallas/Ft Worth Area. See link:

    Two more sites are added in 2016 around the Sherman and Gainesville areas, from what I see on the map, but nothing more for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Nothing is in the Dallas/Ft Worth area at all through 2016.

    Now, the information I provided comes directly from the Tesla site maps. Either show me something that contradicts this, from Tesla, or I have to conclude your information is just an ill informed opinion, and nothing more.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    I didn't now you were in Germany or grew up there. I thought asking me if I grew up there was being smart with me. Haha.

    The Lloyd looks much like a VW van of the '60s. Air cooled?

    Most cars in the US back in the '50s and '60s averaged in the low teens on gas mileage, would be my guess. Even today we don't have an energy policy. Us Americans never have been good at fuel conservation, on the whole, IMO. I don't see that changing until a crisis hits. That's how we tend to manage things. Our national debt is out the kazoo, but we go along like we can manage it. A lot of things "should" change, but will they?
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    I grew up in Texas. My Dad worked for the Fina gas station in our little town of 2,000 population in 1955 and bought his own Texaco station, right across the street in about 1956 or 1957. I vacationed with my cousin, aunt, and uncle from 1960 to 1965. In '61 we traveled from Archer City TX to Kansas City KS (or MO not sure which) to watch the NY Yankees play the Kansas City Athletics. We spent a night at Mickey Mantle's Holiday Inn in Joplin MO. We also went to Dodge City, KS, rode a stage coach.

    In 1960 we traveled from TX to Pikes Peak CO via my uncle's 1959 Chevy Impala and also went up through Caddo county OK, where my Mother and Aunt's family lived when they were kids.

    There was no shortage of gas stations then. Stuckey's was one of my favorite places to stop for gas.

    "In 1937, Stuckey constructed his first store building. Much like the former roadside lean-to, the new business focused on selling these Southern candies to highway travelers. This first Stuckey’s shop added a restaurant, then a novelty section, and then gas pumps. The final addition was a teal blue roof (which would later become the company's trademark). Until the onset of World War II, Stuckey’s continued to open stores in Georgia and Florida. The number of stores declined somewhat during WWII due to the effects of wartime sugar rationing.

    After WWII ended, the Stuckey’s business once again began to grow and it sold a number of new franchises. The company constructed a candy factory to supply an eventual 350-plus Stuckey's stores located throughout the continental United States. As the post-war baby boom flourished and families undertook more long-distance auto travel, Stuckey's continued to grow as they were usually constructed along major highways and frequently were paired with Texaco gas stations as well as restaurants and clean restrooms.[3]"

    Don't you remember Dinah Shore singing "See the USA in a Chevrolet"? That was as early as 1952. Think Chevrolet would market like this without a sufficient density of gas stations?

    Then there was Continental, Greyhound, and Trailsways Bus Lines. Those enterprises couldn't exist without sufficient density of gas stations.

    "Regular route bus ridership in the United States had been declining steadily since World War II despite minor gains during the 1973 and 1979 energy crises."

    Ridership declined because more and more people traveled by personal auto. The suburbanization of the US is taught or was taught in college Sociology classes in the late '60s and early '70s. I still remember that from my college Sociology course. Every body wanted their own home and their own car, their own piece of "Americana".
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    " The 'foreseeable future' is readily available in full color on Tesla's website."

    See my post above in regards to Texas through 2016. I can detail a trip to Colorado from Dallas with the planned 2016 stations if you want me to. It is way out of the way, from Dallas to Abilene, to Sweetwater, to Sheridan then a 90 degree turn into New Mexico and then to Colorado. Or......up into Oklahoma to Kansas then a 90 degree turn into Colorado. Either way takes you many miles further and hours longer vs an ICE. What it amounts to is zig and zagging to hit the superchargers because the density isn't there.

    And there is not much at all in Iowa through 2016, looking at the "full color on Tesla's website."
    Apr 21, 2015. 08:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    "It's a good thing you said, "to date", Bryce. Tesla definitely plans to have several nearby before this year is out and even more by the end of '16. And that's just the DFW area. "

    I see one new one in the area by the end of 2016. Where exactly that will be I don't know. Please show the "several" you speak of "before this year is out and even more by the end of '16".

    Currently there is one in Waco (95 miles from Dallas) and one in Corsicana (52 miles from Dallas). I see one is planned for Denton, TX (40 miles from Dallas) in 2015. I don't see any others planned for 2015.

    For 2016 there is one more planned that appears in the D/FW metroplex. That is all I see.

    Where is your data? I am looking at Tesla's site for 2015 and 2016.

    There is one each planned for about Abilene, Sweetwater, and Midland by 2017, but those are even further from Dallas/Ft Worth.

    And Iowa looks very sparse through 2016.

    As I said, for one company it's hard to get the density coverage necessary in a few years. The expense for the US, Europe, and Asia looks to be astronomical for one company.
    Apr 21, 2015. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]
    @Eric Barnett,

    I was replying to statements I consider to be not reliable. An EV won't be satisfactory for me in my lifetime. What I stated about availability of the SCs is fact. And we have no Model III yet. Musk was looking for a bailout in 2013, via Google. The Model III getting into production is not fact yet. A lot more infrastructure, in the US, Europe, Asia, has to be built, and so do more gigafactories. The money required is mind boggling. A joint venture with several more companies looks more intelligent to me than Tesla doing it all. I'm not convinced Tesla will have the funds to do it all.

    And stating all of R&D and SG&A expenses should be capitalized just doesn't fly, period.

    As for a $35K or $40K Model III, I'll believe it when they price it at that. I'm not sure Tesla can make a profit at that level.

    Let's see where Tesla is at at the end of this year and next. I think they face some cash flow challenges ahead. Planning is one thing, putting that plan into action is another.
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]
    TooLateSchmart has a good point. I used to live in Davenport, IA, when I was in the military, worked across the Mississippi at Rock Island Arsenal, in Illinois, and through 2016 there will be no superchargers to speak of in Iowa. You can't fill up at a non-existent supercharger. As I said, the infrastructure just isn't there yet, and I don't see it being adequately dense for some years to come, unless another company goes in joint venture with Tesla and helps build more stations. There are large expanses of highways yet to have supercharger stations, all across the US.

    The Chademo and J1772 connections far outnumber the superchargers in the US and will through at least 2016, probably a lot longer.

    Sales of the Model III will be for driving within its limited battery range for the first 3 to 5 years, would be my guess, not for long distance travel.
    Apr 21, 2015. 06:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]
    I thought the income statement was supposed to INFORM investors and other users of general purpose financial statements of major categories of income and expense. A breakout of the regulatory credits as a separate item of revenue would be more informative on the income statement. As it is, you have to dig to learn what part the credits played in Tesla's operations.

    When the credits played no material role in Tesla's gross margin, Tesla plays it up in their subheading of their newsletter. (4th Qtr, 2013) But, when it plays a very material role in 2014, it's mentioned on page 3 of the newsletter.

    Breaking this revenue out on the Income Statement would be very useful.

    And Tesla states in their 4th Qtr 2014 newsletter:
    "Q4 automotive gross margin excluding ZEV credits was 22.0%, on both a
    non-GAAP and GAAP basis"

    In their 4th Qtr 2013 newsletter, they stated they thought they could achieve a 28% gross margin without the credits. This further shows the importance of breaking out the revenues by category so one is better informed as to where the revenues came from and how Tesla is doing in meeting goals it has set for itself.

    "We think an automotive gross margin of 28%, excluding potential ZEV credit sales, is a reasonable target for Q4 2014, even if a lower option take rate is assumed"
    Apr 21, 2015. 04:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]
    "I grew up when there was no satisfactory density of gas stations... simple you filled your tank when you had the chance, not when you ran out of gas. "

    I am talking about long distance travel. You have to go out of your way to get to a supercharger on the routes I mentioned. For example, travel laterally, through New Mexico where there are a few superchargers, rather than travel from Dallas to Amarillo on your way to Idaho, Utah, or Oregon. Or travel straight up into Kansas, then over to Colorado, if you are headed for Colorado. The point is, it's out of the way, i.e. not convenient.

    I am 65 years old and there has always been sufficient density of gas stations in my life time. I never remember my parents saying that was a problem either. I doubt your sincerity on that point.

    I remember my parents talking about rationing of gasoline, sugar, metals and other items during the second world war, but lack of gas stations never came up. I have an autobiography of my 90 year old aunt. Changing a flat on a car was a challenge at night, but no mention of lack of gasoline. They lived out in the country, this was around 1935. Even then there were school buses to pick of rural kids, like her.
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    "4. Financials look weak because of R&D, and expansion related SG&A. Most of these should have been capitalized and depreciated, not expensed. They are related to increasing capital investment. "

    I don't agree that "Most of these should have been capitalized". A third of R&D, perhaps (BMW and VW's capitalization rates of R&D) no one really knows. But NONE of SG&A should be. Those are current operating expenses that only benefit the current period.

    25% of Tesla's gross profit is currently coming from regulatory credits, when Tesla has said that is being reduced, but in fact they received more in credits in 2014 than any prior year, so some misinformation is going on.

    So, yes, the financials look weak. More cars have to be sold to make up for the loss in credit revenue, assuming that loss takes place as Tesla said it will.

    The Superchargers are not reaching anywhere near satisfactory density and won't for the foreseeable future. It will be years before they do. You can't go by a simple Google map from Texas to CO or OR, or anywhere in that region without extensive planning and hours out of the way. I'm sure Texas is not the only state like that.
    Apr 21, 2015. 02:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The One Way Tesla Can Survive  [View article]

    "And, at the same time Tesla delivered 10,030 vehicles in 1Q of 2015, up 50% from 1Q 2014. "

    And yet, Tesla is still getting 25% of their gross margin from regulatory credits. ($216 million of $881.6 million in 2014) In fact, the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014 showed the most revenue from regulatory credits, ever.

    "Revenue from the sale of regulatory credits totaled $216.3 million, $194.4 million, and $40.5 million for the years ended December 31, 2014, 2013 and 2012, respectively. " (Page 69 of 10-K)

    I was under the impression that Tesla was getting less revenue from the credits now. I wonder who gave me that impression?
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment