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Bryce_in_TX

Bryce_in_TX
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  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Your comment is true thus far, like it would be as well for anyone who pulled out of the market right before the meltdown began in 2008. Stephen may well beat those who stay vested in the market through its ups and downs, but it requires perfect timing which depends more on luck than anything else.

    I hold that it is a ridiculous, meaningless comment.
    Aug 6 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Stev53e,

    Man, you are judging on a very short term basis. Ridiculous comment.
    Aug 6 06:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Regulators Afford Missing Herbalife? [View article]
    "failed to identify the biggest accounting fraud in history."

    I agree it was accounting fraud, but that is not how it was prosecuted. It was prosecuted as individual security's fraud and insider trading, not as an accounting fraud case. The sentences were light, IMO. No one got what the deserved. BTW, it's Arthur Andersen, not Arthur Anderson.

    And there may have been prosecutorial misconduct with the case.

    http://bit.ly/1shVDxD

    It makes me wonder who is minding the store?
    Aug 3 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife Revenues Materially Overstated? [View article]
    Doc Brew,

    I don't know that one quarter of data is sufficient to make that determination, probably not. However, I don't see justification for changing the revenue recognition to NO revenue recognition until the 3 or 12 month time horizons have expired because such change would likely understate revenues as bad or worse as any overstatements of revenues due to the new refund guarantee. The logical thing to do is to continue to accrue allowances for returns based upon historical data and adjust those allowances on a quarterly basis based upon historical data. That is what Herbalife is doing.

    Someone would have to explain to me how Herbalife and PWC might have a large liability for doing the rational, logical thing by accruing allowances using their current methodology. I don't see it.
    Aug 3 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    David at Imperial Beach,

    In regards to not having to pay out the repurchase guarantees due to a higher resale value - that appears in question at the present.

    Here is what Edmunds had to say about the Model S in their overall evaluation of the car:

    "Bottom Line: The Model S is a fast, comfortable and technologically brilliant luxury sedan, but numerous problems with its touchscreen, tires and drivetrain make it hard to recommend."

    http://edmu.in/1lWClc4

    Here are two other recent articles indicating the resale value may not hold up:

    http://buswk.co/1nYKK4K

    http://bit.ly/1nYRYpe

    If I buy a 3 year old Model S in 2016, I have one year left on the drivetrain warranty, assuming an extended warranty wasn't purchased. I believe I'd be thinking of trying to get some knocked off the purchase price in case I end up having to have multiple repairs done on the drive train in years 4 and beyond, or have to have the drivetrain replaced altogether. That doesn't bode well for the resale value holding up. So, I don't know about your assessment that no resale guarantee amounts will be paid out.
    Aug 2 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    "Concerning the convertible debt, the company obviously expects most of that debt to be converted to stock."

    Are you saying the interest expense accrued thus far will not be eventually paid out in cash?

    And as far as anticipating that the repurchase guarantees won't be paid out, are you saying that NONE of the repurchase guarantee amounts won't be paid out? Doesn't seem reasonable to me with or without the drivetrain issue.

    When GAAP begins to account for the repurchase guarantees in 2016 and beyond, most of it as revenue perhaps, Tesla's non-GAAP will have to exclude those amounts making the non-GAAP less than the GAAP revenue probably. What do they do then, begin using GAAP?
    Aug 2 03:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    Illuminati, I am referring to QTR's article ONLY. Any time non-GAAP is used it needs to be clear that that is what the number represents, non-GAAP. That is my point.
    Aug 2 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I was in a mutual fund that had a sizeable portion invested in the banks. It made no sense to me to stay in that fund, especially after losing a good amount due to the banks. I sold, loss some, and invested in oil and gas instead, buying Fidelity Oil Services Fund for as low as $33 per share (my initial purchase was at $45 per share). I eventually sold it for around $66 a share in 2011. Did the same with a Fidelity Natural Gas Fund and make about a 50% return.

    If my stock decisions are 50% right, I am doing good. Sure, we all are going to make some mistakes, some of them stinkers, probably. But, other opportunities arise to make up for them.

    The banks were classic poor investments during the great recession, IMO. I consider the fund manager who stayed in them an idiot, and I am being charitable in calling him an idiot. That is why I sold that fund around Sept. 2008.

    I can remember Maria Bartiromo interviewing the ex CEO of Countrywide Financial, I think it was, Angelo Mozilo, and I was thinking how big a crook this guy was. The mortgage debacle was easy to see and understand for me. It was an easy decision for me to get out of financials all together in the Great Recession.

    You sound like an ex wife who was been badly betrayed by her ex hubby, and now swears that all men are pigs, untrustworthy, and no good. The solution for her is probably some counseling so she can see how distorted her thoughts have become due to her experience. The same may hold true for you. In other words, to me your thinking is distorted and out of touch with reality about stocks in general due to getting badly burned in the past. Something to think about, perhaps.

    "Never again!". Famous words of a scorned woman.

    Find solid companies with solid fundamentals and buy into them at below fair value prices. My best advice. The Great Recession has nothing to do with investing in individual stocks.

    http://bit.ly/1seA9CP
    Aug 2 03:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    QTR said:

    "Tesla handily beat earnings and met guidance expectations yesterday."

    I'd like to see this type of statement accompanied with a statement that it is non-GAAP, for good reason. I don't how you justify throwing in all deferred revenue from the repurchase guarantee, since there will surely be some vehicles returned, or leave out legitimate interest expense on convertible debt. After all, we aren't talking about converting to cash basis accounting here. The revenue number is GAAP basis, not cash basis. How do you justify leaving out those items? Then we have the non-cash based stock compensation expense thrown out as well. Again, they aren't converting to a strictly cash basis of accounting. Those are legitimate expenses for the period.

    Tesla may eventually be profitable on a GAAP basis, but what are they thinking with this non-GAAP? I can see why you would add some of the deferred revenue from the repurchase guarantee in the non-GAAP numbers, but not accruing for returns, leaving out non-cash stock compensation and the interest expense, I don't get, honestly.
    Aug 1 01:15 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    "I am always confused by people who have a great deal of money buying stocks, why bother, why risk to make more when you already have enough???"

    Unlike others on this forum, I don't have enough, in case of a catastrophic event like a nursing home stay or my wife or I come down with cancer. That is why I put the money at risk to make more.
    Aug 1 01:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    "In the general market, we had over 5 years of a bull market. The big drop is overdue."

    You may be right, but 5 years is an "average". Some bull markets have gone on considerably longer. What I don't get is that interest rates are at historical lows and the economy is still struggling to recover. I suppose that if it fails to recover and we go into recession your prediction will come true. However, I am of the belief it will get stronger due to the cheap money available for expansion and growing a business. Inflation is tame. Taxes are at historic lows. I see nothing that would cause us to go back in recession. Corrections are good, but, I believe this bull market has more time to run.
    Aug 1 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I'm not "predicting" anything, as I don't know what the market will do. If the drop is bigger, all the better. My underlying assumption is that the markets will not collapse and cease to exist, but will always be. Under that scenario, any losses will be temporary, while I collect dividends, I can buy good stocks cheap, and when the market recovers you make out like a bandit. I made a 100% return on one investment from 2008 on, and a little better than 50% on my others. Sold my positions in 2011, a dumb move on my part. In 2008 and 2009 I stayed vested in the market and kept buying as it went lower. Only by selling would you have lost money in the huge correction of 2008 and 2009. I am sorry you did. But, my assumption is that markets will always recover. If that fails to hold true, we are screwed no matter what we do.

    Yes, it was extremely painful watching my investments lose a lot of their value, but I lowered my average cost by buying more as the market declined. When the market recovered, I made well over my cost in all of them. It wasn't easy, it turned my stomach at times, but I followed through with it.
    Aug 1 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    Thanks Mavi57, yes I read the entire call transcript.

    My hope is that Tesla will get the bugs worked out, but they are still working on it. AS noted in the Bloomberg article, it's not clear at all as to whether the reliability of the Model S has improved. Here is another article by the Motley Fool, citing that the 2013 Model S was downgraded by Consumer Reports for reliability from "average" to "below average". Tesla still has a ways to go on reliability, IMO, but I agree they are working on it and may eventually get the bugs worked out, but they are not there yet.

    http://bit.ly/1nYRYpe

    Along with Musks comments, it is important to know what others think as well, to get an overall view. Some Teslaites want to bash me for bringing up what journalists consider legitimate issues. Bash away, it won't stop me from being more objective than they.

    I think that the opinions of 3rd parties who have driven and tested the car bear more weight than the maker of the car, simply because you don't want to put your own product in a less favorable light. I wouldn't either.
    Aug 1 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors beats by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]
    For anyone buying into Tesla's non-GAAP crap, I suggest you review the article in the link. There are similarities in what Tesla is doing and what went on in the dotcom era. BTW, the SEC ordered Tesla to stop making the non-GAAP numbers more important than GAAP in their newsletters. Investor beware.

    http://bit.ly/1liFjb7

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 1 07:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    Lesman03 wrote: "As I said: Overall, the Edmunds.com team was quite happy with the car. This despite a laundry list of minor problems (and one major one, when the inverter had to be replaced)."

    I suggest you get your FACTS straight. Here is what Edmunds had to say about the Model S in their overall evaluation of the car:

    "Bottom Line: The Model S is a fast, comfortable and technologically brilliant luxury sedan, but numerous problems with its touchscreen, tires and drivetrain make it hard to recommend."

    http://edmu.in/1lWClc4

    How do you arrive at their being "quite happy with the car" when they can't recommend it?

    "On TrueDelta.com, an online resource that gathers reliability data on about 33,000 cars, owners of 2013 Teslas are reporting repairs at four times the average rate among car owners. The 30 or so Tesla sedans that TrueDelta tracks have been going into the shop for unscheduled maintenance once a year, on average.

    TrueDelta’s Michael Karesh said he has been expecting Tesla’s reliability rating to rise, but it has floundered for months. “The real question in my mind is will they get their quality issues in shape by the time they burn through the early adopters?” he said. “Someone like my father, for example, wouldn’t put up with these issues.”

    As for the newer cars, one line of thinking is that Tesla’s factories have tightened their processes and now stamp out more flawless cars after learning from experience. The other theory is that early cars were given the white-glove treatment and more recent models may be more prone to glitches, considering they were made as Tesla production accelerated."

    http://buswk.co/1nYKK4K

    This is objective, factual reporting of what others think of the car. I am NOT a Tesla basher, but I do believe John Doe has a right to know about the short comings of the Model S before he makes a purchase. Teslaites are not going to bring the weaknesses of the car up. All they want to do is bash those who try to be objective about the car overall, and call them "shorts" or claim they have financial interests in the oil and gas industry or ICE industry, all of which is a total lie as it regards me. That is objective, huh? NOT. My reason for stating what I have is so others are aware of weaknesses of the car. No other reason.

    And you claimed to "know" my motivation. That is the ultimate in hubris.
    Aug 1 06:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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