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User 4542301

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  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    mikestesla,

    Tesla may hit profitability when they produce sufficient volume of cars. They are not there yet. But, to say they are suffering losses because they want to makes no sense. They are suffering losses because they are trying to grow the company, not because they "want" to.

    Not familiar with KMI. Oil has dipped good in the last 3 months, could have something to do with it (the sector in general is taking a hit), but not familiar with KMI.
    Jul 21, 2015. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude oil dips below $50 on glut worries [View news story]
    The rig count is about 55% less than a year ago.

    http://bit.ly/rAerHt

    However, according to Frank Billings, V.P. of the Williams Co., a rig today can produce the equivalent of two or three rigs of two or three years ago. (See 5:14 and later in link) That means the rig decline isn't going to have the impact some might think it would. Producers are learning how to lower their production costs in order to survive in a lower price crude environment. Unless OPEC cuts back their exports substantially, we aren't going to see $80/barrel or higher oil for some time to come, IMO. And near term, next one or two years, oil may remain range bound at $50 to $70.

    http://bit.ly/1CJxk5h
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy A Contrarian Buy Opportunity [View article]
    "Am here to make money, while you watch and do nothing."

    It may "appear" I am doing nothing. I am preserving capital. That isn't doing "nothing". As far as making money, that's obvious. But the "way" you present yourself will reap you what you have sowed. There is value in respecting those of differing opinions. But you don't see that, Mr. Scrooge.
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy A Contrarian Buy Opportunity [View article]
    @ Win-A-Yak,

    Why would I buy a company whose debt load is as great as its assets? It makes no economic sense. I would buy the assets, if I thought I could make money from them, but leave the debt to the company to deal with. My answer would be no company purchase, but asset purchases maybe.
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "The car is profitable. The company is using all those profits for reckless growth. "

    The gross margin is positive. Whether Tesla is actually making money, i.e. Net Income, remains to be seen. Currently, the numbers say that is doubtful, as does the operating cash flow.
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On, Let's Face It, Linn Energy Is A Steal At $9 [View article]
    AT 5:14 in the link, Frank Billings says that oil drillers/producers can get as much production out of one rig today that took two or three rigs just two or three years ago. That lowers production costs, enabling a producer to survive in a lower price environment. On the other hand, it means that the supply of oil and gas may not be headed much lower, keeping oil and nat gas range bound and in a lower price environment.

    http://bit.ly/1CJxk5h

    You can watch "Oklahoma Horizons" at their website in link below to help you get a feel for what's going on in the energy and agriculture field in Oklahoma currently, and in the energy field nationally and internationally.

    http://bit.ly/1CJxklx
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On, Let's Face It, Linn Energy Is A Steal At $9 [View article]
    Line has stated that its production will decline "modestly" this year. See footnote 4 page 7 in link:

    http://bit.ly/1HIrzRG

    Its nat gas is hedge at $ .61 less or a 12% lower hedge price in 2016. See page 10 in above link.

    Its oil is 25% less hedged in 2016.

    And you believe that you will continue to receive $125 in distributions beyond 2015? Show me the math that supports that belief.

    In 4.17 years you would receive $125 X 4.17 = $525.25, if the distribution held at the current rate. If oil prices remain in a range of $55 to $70, I'd say it's doubtful LINE will maintain the current rate. A cut in the distribution, or a suspension, due to its long term debt level and LINE trying to pay down debt because its asset base is equal to or worth less than its assets, will likely result in a loss of capital.

    True $696 will not bankrupt you, but there are much better places to invest it.
    Jul 19, 2015. 06:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy A Contrarian Buy Opportunity [View article]
    LINE management and employees should be backing up the truck to buy LINE and LNCO units/shares at these prices if they believe LINE is undervalued. That's what Richard Kinder would do.
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy A Contrarian Buy Opportunity [View article]
    @Kirby,

    "I love it when all the negative Nellies want to have the company in bankruptcy as they think they know whats going to happen 3 years out and that it doesn't matter that there are no debts due until 2019. They want Linn to stop the dividend as its costing the shorts to much."

    I'm not talking about 3 years out, I'm talking about 2016 for a very possible distribution cut, and now for the current value of LINE's oil and gas assets. Check my post again.

    http://bit.ly/1TGXU2M
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy A Contrarian Buy Opportunity [View article]
    @Kirby,

    "For 2016, oil is hedged approximately 65% at an average price of approximately $90 per barrel. Natural gas remains hedged approximately 100% for 2015 through 2017 at average prices ranging from approximately $4.48 to $5.12 per MMBtu. At March 31, 2015, the Company’s hedge book had an estimated net positive mark-to-market value of approximately 2.1 billion."

    So, for 2016, LINE is 25% less hedged on oil than 2015. Even if oil recovers to $70 per barrel, LINE will still be getting $20 a barrel less on that unhedged oil than in 2015. Nat gas is hedged at an average of $4.51 per mcf in 2016, versus $5.12 in 2015. In addition, LINE has stated: "LINN has a 2015 oil and natural gas capital budget of $520 million. At this level of capital spending, the Company expects a modest decline in its production during 2015 as it chooses to pursue only projects that generate a reasonable rate of return while it targets living within cash flow."

    All of this points to a material decline in revenues for 2016, and a very possible distribution cut which would negatively impact the unit/share price.

    As for the $2.1 billion value of hedges, there has also been an equal decline in value of the hedged production to offset the increase in value of the hedges. Kirby loves to present only what benefits his rose colored glass perspective.

    "Turning now to our 2014 reserve report, LINN’s total proved reserves were estimated to be approximately 7.3 Tcfe, of which approximately 58% were natural gas, 28% were oil and 14% were NGLs. Approximately 80% were classified as proved developed, with a total standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows of approximately $12.5 billion."

    Check the link. The $12.5 billion value was based on prices of oil at $89.95, nat gas at $4.199, and NGL at $39.70. (See page 7) Prices are at least 35% lower now making the current FMV of the discounted future net cash flows $8.125 billion or less.

    What Kirby doesn't tell you in his posts should make you wary of believing any of them. He repeats the same old tired stuff over and over, while leaving out material items that present a totally different view of LINE.

    http://1.usa.gov/1HzAWZj
    Jul 16, 2015. 03:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy A Contrarian Buy Opportunity [View article]
    "Line has $10.4 billion in debt against $4.1 billion in equity."

    LINE does not have $4.1 billion in equity. That is book value, but the FMV of its assets have fallen to the point where equity is zero to negative currently. LINE has $10.9 billion of liabilities.

    " The firm is sufficiently hedged through 2016"

    Highly debatable. If oil stays at or around $60 to $65/barrel, the 25% less hedged in oil in 2016 and $ .50 less hedged on nat gas is going to cut into their revenues materially in 2016. Even $70/barrel is still $20 a barrel less than what they are getting now. Being 25% less hedged will eat into the revenues.
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Why Not Buy The 7.73%-Yielding Series D Preferred Stock And Reduce Portfolio Risk? [View article]
    @hjbother,

    Explain to me what the "high risk" is in your view.
    Jul 14, 2015. 08:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record [View news story]
    No clue. They should be reported separately, but how TSLA will report them, I have no idea. Everything, not just inventory, should be broken out separately for transparency.
    Jul 14, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Betting Against Cramer? A Bet That I Am Willing To Take, Here's Why [View article]
    Achilles, I think you do your readers a disservice by not categorizing LINE as a risky investment. Nobody would listen to Cramer if LINE's fundamentals weren't so poor.
    Jul 14, 2015. 06:32 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record [View news story]
    Probably
    Jul 13, 2015. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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