User 4542301

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  • Why Tesla's Heavily-Promoted Shares Could Prove To Be Fool's Gold  [View article]

    "One thing that is puzzling and worrisome is that you never see an interview that is negative about tesla on cnbc, bloomberg, perhaps maybe fox about the poor financial metrics of Tesla."

    Cory Johnson, of Bloomberg, is a bear on Tesla, so I don't know who you listen to on Bloomberg, but Johnson is definitely a bear. Musk has blocked Johnson from his Twitter account.

    The first link doesn't work. Search on Bloomberg, "Cory Johnson, Tesla" and look for a March 18, 2015 article on tax credits.
    Jul 13, 2015. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record  [View news story]

    Buy TSLA? You must be joking. Too rich and risky for me.
    Jul 13, 2015. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record  [View news story]
    " 'Going forward, Tesla will publish the number of new car deliveries within three days of quarter end.' "

    That's what I thought. The bears can be just as ridiculous as the bulls.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A $7.6 Billion Write-Off Plus Layoffs Are Never Good Signs  [View article]

    I agree that Apple has the market in graphics design and publishing, not sure about architectural design.

    My point about such applications was that you need a larger work space/screen, be it an Apple Mac desktop or laptop or be it a Microsoft operating system machine. 9.7 inches on an I-pad may be enough space for some graphics applications, but I still think the more screen space, the better for such applications. 9.7 by 6.6 is not that much space for these applications. And I would think these type of applications would require quite a bit of processor power, as well as disk space. I don't think 128 gigs of disk space would be adequate to store your archives of work, unless you trust the Cloud to store your archive there. (I don't trust the Cloud)

    Having done some graphics design for my wife (school teacher) and a few brochures (don't laugh - I spent a considerable amount of time learning about what fonts to use and graphics design over several years including studying three books on the subject), and having seen that one of the better graphics design companies here in town use Mac desktops and Mac Pro laptops for their work (they designed a website and company marketing materials for the last company I worked for), it just makes sense to me that the larger design space and the most processing power achieves the best results in the least amount of time. That also applies to the other applications I have mentioned. These are all applications I have had some or a lot of experience with. I am sure there are more examples where the same is true.
    Jul 12, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A $7.6 Billion Write-Off Plus Layoffs Are Never Good Signs  [View article]
    @ up yours,

    I have read several reviews of Windows 8, have one friend who recently purchased a new pc with Win 8, and the results are that the operating system was largely a failure, that people found it confusing and hard to work with, they didn't like it.

    That isn't being brain washed, but looking at actual experiences. You are obviously biased in your view, and discount anything that doesn't agree with your opinion.

    I prefer to have one computer for everything. Not two, a surface pro for mobile and a desktop for home or work. That is expensive, as well as redundant. My laptop fills both requirements.
    Jul 10, 2015. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A $7.6 Billion Write-Off Plus Layoffs Are Never Good Signs  [View article]

    I would agree that Microsoft will have a difficult time maintaining revenues with a decline in the use of desktop and laptop pcs. However, the fountain pen/ball point analogy only goes so far. There are a multitude of applications which require a desktop or laptop, rather than a small mobile device. Architectural design is one, accounting is one, pharmacy is another, graphical design and publishing is another. That is where the fountain pen/ball point pen analogy breaks down. These applications require a larger screen, more space to make it user friendly and easy to work with.

    Can you see yourself, as a draftsman or architect, doing schematics for a new building on a 7 or 8 inch device, or smaller? I can't. The same with accounting. You need a larger screen to enter journal entries, see columns of numbers comparing one year's numbers to two or more years and percentage columns, or view one year's financial statements compared to a budget with percentage variance over or under. Graphical design needs larger space to get a "feel" of how an ad, brochure, etc. will actually look when finished. These applications will not decline in use of a desktop or laptop. The PC will not go away, period, unlike the fountain pen which has no real use now except for those who prefer its qualities over a ball point.

    Microsoft has built several disastrous operating systems, Vista and Windows 8 being two of them. I fear windows 10 will be more of the same.
    Jul 10, 2015. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy - Continue To Hold On To This High Yielder  [View article]

    "Cash flow is greater indication of how a business is doing, and right now cash flow isn't a problem. "

    Fine, let's use cash flows as a performance measure.

    From 2005 through 2014:
    Operating cash flows were $4.544 billion
    Distributions were $3.854

    That leaves $ .690 billion to pay for capital expenditures

    Cash used in investing activities were $14.483 billion

    So, what paid for most of the investing activities? Debt or equity issues

    LINE has very little internally generated cash flow available to pay for its assets.

    "The likelihood of this company going bankrupt in the next 5 years is minimal at best."

    Please support your statement with something other than just an opinion. The current FMV of LINES assets are worth less than its total liabilities. How it pays its senior notes off come 2019 and later I don't see. Its cash flow doesn't support a payoff, or anything that comes close to a payoff.
    Jul 10, 2015. 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy - Continue To Hold On To This High Yielder  [View article]

    Quantum will be the owner of any assets purchased, while giving LINE the opportunity to invest capital to own anywhere from a 15 to 50% working interest. The new company created will have a board of directors, 3 of which will be from Quantum, two from LINE, so Quantum not LINE remains in control of the assets purchased.

    I don't see Quantum loaning anything to LINE. It is a partnership or joint venture. Any ownership interest that LINE could potentially have appears to be capital coming from LINE. Even if LINE went bankrupt, I don't see how Quantum would be adversely affected, since Quantum owns the assets.

    It appears to me that your presentation of the deal is misleading, at best.

    And you don't disclose LINE's debt situation, the current fair market value of its assets, or the cash flows from prior years and where those cash flows came from or how they were used. All very misleading and not even close to full disclosure, IMO. If that makes me a "hater", so be it.

    No investment in LINE of any sort.
    Jul 10, 2015. 06:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy - Continue To Hold On To This High Yielder  [View article]

    Do an analysis of their cash flows from 2005 through 2014. Almost all of their debt repayment was done with borrowed money or cash that came from equity issues. They can't pay the distribution, op expenses, and cap ex without a heavy dose of borrowed capital or equity infusions. Internally generated cash flow is very anemic. After paying the distributions, LINE only had $ .688 billion from operating cash flow to pay for cap ex. Total cap ex during that time was $14 plus billion.
    Jul 10, 2015. 06:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A $7.6 Billion Write-Off Plus Layoffs Are Never Good Signs  [View article]

    It seems many applications can be handled by the I-Pad, tablet, or a smart phone. Even streaming video content from the web, say from youtube, netflix etc, can be handled via a tablet to the tablet or to your tv via a tablet through google chromecast.

    But there are still some applications that are more easily done with a 15.6 inch to 17 inch laptop or a desktop, such as desktop publishing, either personal use or commercial use. Seeing the creation on a larger screen and designing on a larger screen is simply a lot more user friendly. Creating videos and editing photos falls into the same category. I'd hate to have to do that on a 7 or 8 inch screen.

    Commercial architectural design would also be more difficult on smaller screens and less powerful processors. I'd hate to have to use Quickbooks on a 7 or 8 inch screen. A spreadsheet the same. No thanks.

    So, there are some applications where either a desktop pc or laptop computer are more desirable, IMO. But, for the masses, an I-pad or smart phone may be more desirable.

    I have a dumb cell phone. I can use it as a phone or send and receive text messages, but that's it. I pay $20 every 3 months, usually. Paying $60 to $100 a month for a phone would be a tremendous waste of money for me since I am retired now. But, having a cell phone for occasional calls away from home or emergencies is very nice to have.
    Jul 10, 2015. 05:37 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A $7.6 Billion Write-Off Plus Layoffs Are Never Good Signs  [View article]

    "It helps reduce taxes. It impacts the profit numbers but has no impact on the company's cash because it is only a paper write-off. "

    Microsoft paid cash or other value for an asset or assets that have not proved to be worth the value paid for them. Kind of like just flushing cash down the toilet. It is not just a paper write off. The value paid, let's say it is cash, is not going to be recouped through current or future cash flows.

    And the reason for the reduction in taxes is because Microsoft has suffered losses from the purchase of the asset, in the form of expected cash flows that will not be achieved.

    Some of the trash you read on SA is just incredible.
    Jul 10, 2015. 05:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A $7.6 Billion Write-Off Plus Layoffs Are Never Good Signs  [View article]
    I love my windows 7 Asus ROG laptop. I hate windows 8 and fear 10 is more of the same. I have a 4 pane window icon at the bottom right of my laptop which allows me to upgrade to win 10. Never gonna do it.

    Guess I have to migrate to Apple MacBook Pro when Win 7 is no longer supported. I want a full fledged laptop, not some rinky dink hybrid with detachable keyboard with a loser GUI operating system. GUI was made to be easier to use, not harder. Microsoft has forgotten why it was invented.
    Jul 10, 2015. 04:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Linn Energy's Situation Really That Dire?  [View article]

    "Moreover, the company has reached an agreement with GSO Capital Partners to commit $500 million for the next five years to fund oil and gas production. Such steps should provide a bit more ease for Linn's cash flow."

    Can you be more specific and estimate how much this would add to cash flow? I don't think it's a spit in the bucket.

    "In the case of a highly leveraged company, as Linn Energy, it will have to make a correction by selling off assets or raising equity -- or both. These steps have been taken in recent weeks by Linn Energy."

    Are you saying that LINE intends to pay down some debt? Can you tell me what years LINE has ever paid down debt, and how much?

    Here are some numbers from LINE's cash flow statements from 2005 through 2014:
    Cash flow from operations: $4.544 billion
    cash used in investing activities: $14.483 billion (free cash flow is very negative)
    proceeds from debt and equity: $30.157 billion
    payments on debt: $15.969 billion (paying down debt is not what LINE has done to date)
    Distributions to members: $3.853 billion

    Note: cash flow from ops is only $.688 billion after paying distributions to members. So what did LINE use to pay on its debt? Proceeds from borrowings and equity issues.

    These numbers show an irresponsible management who is more concerned with their own compensation than with the long term welfare of the company and its unitholders, IMO. The majority of management's compensation comes from unit based compensation, including distributions.

    Its ability to generate earnings and internally generated cash flow has always been anemic.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Linn Energy's Situation Really That Dire?  [View article]

    This is a dog eat dog world. Who do you think the Blackstone deal favors, Blackstone or LINE?

    Look at the estimated FMV of LINE's reserves at 12-31-14, page 8 of link:

    $12.512 billion, based on energy prices about 35% higher than they are currently. Adding the current estimated FMV of those assets to $2.1 billion FMV of hedges and $1.3 billion in other assets on the balance sheet yields $11.5 billion. Their total liabilities are $11.794 billion.

    As for the $1.5 billion in deals struck recently, here is a post I think you should read:

    LINE is 100% hedged on nat gas production for 2016, but at $4.51/mcf, versus $5.12/mcf this year. LINE is 25% less hedged on oil in 2016 versus 2015. If oil doesn't rebound to $90/barrel, I don't think they can maintain the current distribution in 2016. And production is gradually declining.

    What are you thinking, that oil is gonna go back to $80 or above in 2016? Sounds far fetched to me.

    What you should be asking is how much revenue the deals are going to fetch LINE. The post above says it's an immaterial amount. LINE is giving out press releases to try to make itself look better than it really is, IMO.
    No investment in LINE or LNCO, long or short.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Simple Math Behind Linn Energy  [View article]

    The FMV of energy assets as of 12-31-14 was $12.512 billion (see page 8 in link). The book value was $13.201 billion. I mistakenly took the book value at 3-31-15. That makes their worth at 3-31-15 about $8.133 billion. And the derivative value should be $2.069 billion, rather than $2.5 billion. So the total I stated is a little more than it should be, resulting in a negative equity value (total liabilities are more than total FMV of assets). It's all estimates and the total, whether taking $13.201 times 65% or $12.512 times 65%, results in showing that the FMV of the company is about zero, at current energy prices.

    Even if oil should rise to $70 or $75 a barrel in several years, I don't see that LINE is worth very much because of its debt load.
    Jul 9, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment