Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
It seems many agree with you:
" We've gone from a nation of doers and makers to a nation of *&^%ing slobs"
Looks like Limbaugh and Levin's propaganda and distortions are having a material impact on the thoughts of many citizens. Here's an article from Forbes to try and help balance it.
I did taxes for a couple of years and did returns for a number of hard working families who paid no income taxes (they did pay payroll taxes) and actually got some money back through the earned income credit. I'd rather see that than see someone have to go on welfare.
60% of the 47% who pay no income taxes are working Americans (including the soldiers who are stationed in a war zone), another 22% are 65 or older, and 17% are students, people with disabilities or illnesses, the unemployed, or people with low taxable incomes.
To call all of these folks "slobs" and to imply they don't work or haven't earned what they receive doesn't make sense to me. Better hope you aren't judged in a similar manner as you have demonstrated here.
Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
mike904,
I don't follow your comment: "Under FASB, corporations go public at $20, buy the stock back for $100 and not only not declare a caapital loss, but call it a RETAINED EARNING."
Under either scenario, recording a capital loss or recording the transaction under GAAP, as treasury stock, Equity is reduced in the same amount from the buy back. A buy back does not increase Equity, but decreases it.
Say the company buys back 1,000 shares at $100 per share. The transaction is recorded:
The Treasury Stock amount of $100,000 is subtracted from the outstanding Equity to arrive at the ending Equity balance. If Equity were$1,000,000 before the transaction, then it would be $900,000 after the buyback.
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
GAAP distorts the economic reality, generally, when you have derivatives used as hedges but not designated as such for accounting purposes. So, I'd have to agree that generally the GAAP numbers for AGNC are not reliable due to that fact. But, take out the unrealized gains/losses on derivatives, which is very easy to do, and you have good, reliable numbers on an adjusted GAAP Basis. Adjusted GAAP numbers are all I use.
On the other hand, tax accounting wasn't created to accurately measure a company's financial position or results of operations, it was created to bring in revenues to the federal government. The tax code is a hodge podge of archaic rules and regulations. You think you are going to get accurate measurements of revenue and expenses from such a mess? How does one derive order from chaos?
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
Taymere,
Your calculations leave out real cash expenses and some real revenues or losses, namely the gains/losses on sales of MBS. To me, what you are saying is, without all the real expenses/losses, AGNC's earnings are healthy. Including all the real expenses/losses, AGNC's earnings are not healthy enough to support the $1.25/share dividend, IMO.
I don't agree with your calculations. They leave out cash expenses. Actual taxable income available for dividends for the 1st Qtr, 2013 was only $ .50/Share.
To arrive at cash available for distribution, you have to include all cash expenses paid out.
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
A few posters on another thread were saying AGNC was going to go bankrupt. I think that was a concern of dividends#1 on this thread. I assume he saw the same posts I did on the other thread. So, I was trying to relieve the fear he seemed to be having about bankruptcy.
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
Dividens#1,
I don't know anything about the lawsuit, whether there's any legitimacy to it or not. AGNC barely makes enough from interest income, at this point, to support a $1/share quarterly divi, IMO. If people want them to stop growing, i.e. issuing more shares, they are going to have to content themselves with that type of divi. If AGNC runs into some unfavorable circumstances, such as now, then the divi will be less than $1 without further growth, IMO. I don't believe you invest in mREITs for capital appreciation, but only for the divi yield. Some dilution is going to occur.
In regards to others' negative comments about AGNC going bankrupt, I view those opinions as being overly catastrophic. On a bell curve, to me, they would be at the outer boundaries of the curve, not within the normal range.
You need to be well diversified and not have more than 5 to 10% of your investment funds in mREITs, IMO. I was in NLY for a year and a half. I didn't know anything about mREITs at the time, just liked the yield. Then QE3 hit and NLY's stock took a good dive. I sold, making very little over that time frame, but not losing anything, after the dividends. For me, I'll look at this sector once rates have risen some, but i would not consider investing in it at the moment. Too much volatility and uncertainty. To me, these companies behave like a long term bond fund, to put it in simple terms.
I like the equity REITs, like "O". Those I am looking at investing in for the long term, adding as prices correct. O has decades of stable, steadily increasing dividends. Its share price, as a result, has steadily risen over that time. If I were you I'd look into O and check out Brad Miller's articles on that sector.
There is a lot of negativity on this particular article, which I mostly ignore and don't give much credence to in regards to bankruptcy. Also, note how few posts some of these folks have made. It gives me the gut feeling the same person or a small group are coming out of the woodwork, so to speak, seeking to create panic among AGNC stockholders. They have no profile info, NONE. That may tell you something about who they are not, i.e.legitimate investors. I don't give many on this forum any credibility, except the article contributors, people who can explain an investment to the point I believe they have solid experience and know what they are talking about. I don't hear any of them talking of bankruptcy. If I were you, I'd listen to Scott and tune out the others. He has demonstrated he understands AGNC very well.
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
It would seem to me that issuing more preferred at 8% divi, to obtain more funds to leverage to earn more interest income is a cheaper and better way to go than issuing common and paying 16% or better. The financing is cheaper, isn't it? It would seem to me that the common shareholders would benefit due to increased interest income leveraged beyond the 8% divi. What am I missing?
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
"I don't know if you know this, but barely any firms will ever advise to 'sell' a stock. If you pile up all the recommendations on Wall Street for all the stocks of the S&P 500, you'll quickly realize that these firms rarely issue a sell recommendation."
Point taken about the wheel getting greased with revenue, so some will not issue a sell rating on stocks they receive revenue from. Yes, I understand that. On the few stocks I have researched at Fidelity, I have seen ratings all over the map. For example, Linn Energy (LINE), is rated very bearish, with a rating of 0.3. Intel's rating is 7.4.
The ratings which Fidelity includes in its own rating come from independent research firms, which are defined as:
"Independent firms are firms who derive no financial benefit from the nature of their recommendations.
For the purposes of performance evaluation, Investars defines independent research as research produced by a firm that has no conflicts of interest in the following areas:
Investment banking, where the research firm has investment banking operations or has had investment banking transactions within the past year Paid-for-research, where the research firm is paid by the covered company to issue research"
By definition, the ratings Fidelity uses for its own rating do not include those firms who receive revenue from the company being rated. My statement you quoted was made in conjunction with the Fidelity rating, not in isolation of it. In rating Intel, Fidelity threw out one buy rating, 2 outperform ratings, 7 neutral ratings, and 2 underperform ratings because the companies were not considered independent. Piper Jaffry was not considered independent, btw.
So, everything I stated was made in the context, and with the most weight being given, to Fidelity's rating.
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
"Everyone needs both a PC/laptop and a smartphone"
I don't need a smartphone with a $60 a month or more contract, no thanks. Never had one, probably never will. I have a cell phone from Virgin, no contract. Pay $25 every 3 months for myself and one for my wife. A lot cheaper and accomplishes what we need, mobile phone capability, without all the bells and whistles and added expense.
I do desire full desktop power in a laptop, which I have in my Asus with an Intel dual core chip. Looking at another Asus currently and will be interested in the Haswell chips with much better battery power.
Btw, do the non-Win tablets have the capability to run popular video/picture editing software and financial software such as Quicken? Just wondering. Those are apps I would think most folks would want. Why buy two products, one to do these tasks, another for entertainment, when you can get it all in one product? Seems like a waste of resources to me.
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
" Ashraf and Intel bull,
Listen to what other say about Intel than what you think about."
I sure as heck would not be selling based on Piper Jaffray's opinion. Not when so many others do not recommend selling, much less shorting. Fidelity has a bullish 7.4 rating on Intel. The scales, based on 23 analyst opinions, weigh in favor of Intel. I am a bull. Long Intel.
American Capital Agency And Rising Interest Rates: Cut Your Losses Or Wait It Out? [View article]
I'm not sure we are on the same page. I'm talking about the share price of AGNC recovering at some point. Interest rates go in cycles. The current situation is temporary, IMO. The sky isn't falling.
Forget my example of the GM bond. Look at the last one, when I was invested in the market. Assuming the mREITs do not go belly up with the rise in interest rates over the next 3 or 4 years, once rates peak, share prices will begin to recover, if not before. If you buy in at intervals as prices drop, you will recover faster than if you just hold what you have. Not long any mREITs. But I am long "O" and still up about 15%.
Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
" We've gone from a nation of doers and makers to a nation of *&^%ing slobs"
Looks like Limbaugh and Levin's propaganda and distortions are having a material impact on the thoughts of many citizens. Here's an article from Forbes to try and help balance it.
http://onforb.es/13AYyp7
I did taxes for a couple of years and did returns for a number of hard working families who paid no income taxes (they did pay payroll taxes) and actually got some money back through the earned income credit. I'd rather see that than see someone have to go on welfare.
60% of the 47% who pay no income taxes are working Americans (including the soldiers who are stationed in a war zone), another 22% are 65 or older, and 17% are students, people with disabilities or illnesses, the unemployed, or people with low taxable incomes.
To call all of these folks "slobs" and to imply they don't work or haven't earned what they receive doesn't make sense to me. Better hope you aren't judged in a similar manner as you have demonstrated here.
Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
I don't follow your comment: "Under FASB, corporations go public at $20, buy the stock back for $100 and not only not declare a caapital loss, but call it a RETAINED EARNING."
Under either scenario, recording a capital loss or recording the transaction under GAAP, as treasury stock, Equity is reduced in the same amount from the buy back. A buy back does not increase Equity, but decreases it.
Say the company buys back 1,000 shares at $100 per share. The transaction is recorded:
Debit Treasury Stock $100,000
Credit Cash $100,000
The Treasury Stock amount of $100,000 is subtracted from the outstanding Equity to arrive at the ending Equity balance. If Equity were$1,000,000 before the transaction, then it would be $900,000 after the buyback.
http://bit.ly/18v67TH
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
On the other hand, tax accounting wasn't created to accurately measure a company's financial position or results of operations, it was created to bring in revenues to the federal government. The tax code is a hodge podge of archaic rules and regulations. You think you are going to get accurate measurements of revenue and expenses from such a mess? How does one derive order from chaos?
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
Your calculations leave out real cash expenses and some real revenues or losses, namely the gains/losses on sales of MBS. To me, what you are saying is, without all the real expenses/losses, AGNC's earnings are healthy. Including all the real expenses/losses, AGNC's earnings are not healthy enough to support the $1.25/share dividend, IMO.
I don't agree with your calculations. They leave out cash expenses.
Actual taxable income available for dividends for the 1st Qtr, 2013 was only $ .50/Share.
To arrive at cash available for distribution, you have to include all cash expenses paid out.
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
I don't know anything about the lawsuit, whether there's any legitimacy to it or not. AGNC barely makes enough from interest income, at this point, to support a $1/share quarterly divi, IMO. If people want them to stop growing, i.e. issuing more shares, they are going to have to content themselves with that type of divi. If AGNC runs into some unfavorable circumstances, such as now, then the divi will be less than $1 without further growth, IMO. I don't believe you invest in mREITs for capital appreciation, but only for the divi yield. Some dilution is going to occur.
In regards to others' negative comments about AGNC going bankrupt, I view those opinions as being overly catastrophic. On a bell curve, to me, they would be at the outer boundaries of the curve, not within the normal range.
You need to be well diversified and not have more than 5 to 10% of your investment funds in mREITs, IMO. I was in NLY for a year and a half. I didn't know anything about mREITs at the time, just liked the yield. Then QE3 hit and NLY's stock took a good dive. I sold, making very little over that time frame, but not losing anything, after the dividends. For me, I'll look at this sector once rates have risen some, but i would not consider investing in it at the moment. Too much volatility and uncertainty. To me, these companies behave like a long term bond fund, to put it in simple terms.
I like the equity REITs, like "O". Those I am looking at investing in for the long term, adding as prices correct. O has decades of stable, steadily increasing dividends. Its share price, as a result, has steadily risen over that time. If I were you I'd look into O and check out Brad Miller's articles on that sector.
There is a lot of negativity on this particular article, which I mostly ignore and don't give much credence to in regards to bankruptcy. Also, note how few posts some of these folks have made. It gives me the gut feeling the same person or a small group are coming out of the woodwork, so to speak, seeking to create panic among AGNC stockholders. They have no profile info, NONE. That may tell you something about who they are not, i.e.legitimate investors. I don't give many on this forum any credibility, except the article contributors, people who can explain an investment to the point I believe they have solid experience and know what they are talking about. I don't hear any of them talking of bankruptcy. If I were you, I'd listen to Scott and tune out the others. He has demonstrated he understands AGNC very well.
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q2 2013 [View article]
Earnings and UDTI just don't appear sufficient to sustain anything higher, IMO.
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
Point taken about the wheel getting greased with revenue, so some will not issue a sell rating on stocks they receive revenue from. Yes, I understand that. On the few stocks I have researched at Fidelity, I have seen ratings all over the map. For example, Linn Energy (LINE), is rated very bearish, with a rating of 0.3. Intel's rating is 7.4.
The ratings which Fidelity includes in its own rating come from independent research firms, which are defined as:
"Independent firms are firms who derive no financial benefit from the nature of their recommendations.
For the purposes of performance evaluation, Investars defines independent research as research produced by a firm that has no conflicts of interest in the following areas:
Investment banking, where the research firm has investment banking operations or has had investment banking transactions within the past year
Paid-for-research, where the research firm is paid by the covered company to issue research"
By definition, the ratings Fidelity uses for its own rating do not include those firms who receive revenue from the company being rated. My statement you quoted was made in conjunction with the Fidelity rating, not in isolation of it. In rating Intel, Fidelity threw out one buy rating, 2 outperform ratings, 7 neutral ratings, and 2 underperform ratings because the companies were not considered independent. Piper Jaffry was not considered independent, btw.
So, everything I stated was made in the context, and with the most weight being given, to Fidelity's rating.
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
Whatever. I don't care.
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
I don't need a smartphone with a $60 a month or more contract, no thanks. Never had one, probably never will. I have a cell phone from Virgin, no contract. Pay $25 every 3 months for myself and one for my wife. A lot cheaper and accomplishes what we need, mobile phone capability, without all the bells and whistles and added expense.
I do desire full desktop power in a laptop, which I have in my Asus with an Intel dual core chip. Looking at another Asus currently and will be interested in the Haswell chips with much better battery power.
Btw, do the non-Win tablets have the capability to run popular video/picture editing software and financial software such as Quicken? Just wondering. Those are apps I would think most folks would want. Why buy two products, one to do these tasks, another for entertainment, when you can get it all in one product? Seems like a waste of resources to me.
Long Intel
Intel (INTC) slides 1% premarket as Piper Jaffray downgrades to Sell and trims its price target by $1 to $20, citing weak PC demand and intense competition in processors. [View news story]
Listen to what other say about Intel than what you think about."
Analyst opinions at Fidelity Investments:
4 Buy
2 Outperform
14 Neutral
2 Underperform
1 Sell (Piper Jaffray)
I sure as heck would not be selling based on Piper Jaffray's opinion. Not when so many others do not recommend selling, much less shorting. Fidelity has a bullish 7.4 rating on Intel. The scales, based on 23 analyst opinions, weigh in favor of Intel. I am a bull. Long Intel.
American Capital Agency And Rising Interest Rates: Cut Your Losses Or Wait It Out? [View article]
American Capital Agency And Rising Interest Rates: Cut Your Losses Or Wait It Out? [View article]
Forget my example of the GM bond. Look at the last one, when I was invested in the market. Assuming the mREITs do not go belly up with the rise in interest rates over the next 3 or 4 years, once rates peak, share prices will begin to recover, if not before. If you buy in at intervals as prices drop, you will recover faster than if you just hold what you have. Not long any mREITs. But I am long "O" and still up about 15%.