Seeking Alpha

Bryce_in_TX

Bryce_in_TX
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Bryce_in_TX's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "I'm gonna go with what Tesla Model S drivers themselves have to say on this issue, and not what a FUDdite says."

    That is exactly what I am doing, seeing Tesla owners report their experiences on the Tesla forum. I didn't make the drivetrain failures and replacements up, nor the problems with the tires.

    To claim to understand my motivation is the ultimate in hubris. After all you called me a short several times. Better look at my posts defending Tesla on the fires and non-GAAP data. It will give you a better view of where I am coming from. Not a Tesla basher. Doing the best I can to interpret the data objectively, as I see it.
    Jul 29 02:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "I own a 4x4 off road vehicle. If I take it off road and drive it like an idiot stuff is going to break. I can see you must by the type of kid that destroys his toys and complains later."

    This is assumption. If you read the Tesla forum, you will find that your assumption is false for some of these folks.
    Jul 29 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "The shorts just continue to focus on and magnify issues that aren't really issues."

    I doubt that the Tesla owners in the link I provided are shorts. They believe the drivetrain issue is real, as do other owners who have had tire issues at 4K to 10K miles. I regard your statement as Tesla bias.
    Jul 29 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    Not an oil man, though my Dad did own a pulling unit in the 1950s. You misinterpret my motivation.

    10 out of 84 of the polsters in the link below state they have noise but can live with it.

    http://bit.ly/X1v7hB

    6 out of the 84 have experienced drivetrain failures.

    Tesla owners believe in the technology and are willing to be beta testers to get the bugs worked out. A little noise is not gonna deter them.
    Jul 29 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "It's a $100k car you don't want on the street from some noise in the drivetrain."

    Why not? After all, having to slow down from 70 or 75 to 50 or 55, with no heat, the radio off, in the dead of winter, and wearing heavy winter clothing, in order to reach the next charging station doesn't deter a Tesla enthusiast from buying a Tesla. So, this $100K car isn't being purchased for its luxury and its performance features. I mean what luxury is there in having to slow down and experience some uncomfortable cold in the dead of winter? So, it is the new technology, more than anything else which is driving the sales. If that doesn't deter one from buying a Tesla, a little noise certainly won't deter them either. I think there is more to the noise than just the sound, itself. It makes no economic sense to go to the expense of replacing the drivetrain if no damage will occur because of it. Doesn't compute to me.
    Jul 29 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I respect your decision to get out of the market. However, I think a better way to navigate it is to buy when everyone else is selling (when there is a good correction), get in at a good price and buy more in increments if the market keeps going down, and stay invested. As long as the markets continue to exist, the averages will gradually continue to rise over time. That means that any dip or correction will be short term and your stocks will gradually increase in value over time, provided you stay invested.

    I bought "O" around $38.80 and OHI at $30 and $32. If they should decline below those prices I will be a buyer again. I keep 20% to 30% in cash, ready to buy in on a good correction. I'm a novice at investing, but this is working for me. It worked well during the market crash of 2008-2009. (oil and gas and a balanced mutual fund) I started buying in around 8800 and kept it up as the market declined. Came out smelling like a rose. I will do the same again. I cant time the market. As long as the markets continue to exist, I will be good. I love the monthly and quarterly dividends. It doesn't feel good when the market tanks and so do your stocks, however, I remind myself it's only temporary and it will eventually turn around. As long as the markets continue to exist, that axiom will hold true. If they don't, we are all screwed no matter what we do.

    http://bit.ly/UIBKUa
    Jul 29 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Was Surrounded By Market Timers [View article]
    Thanks, Brad. I got into "O" at about $37.80 around Nov. 2012, based upon one of your articles, and have added a little since. Then I got into OHI based on one of your articles, also, around $30 and $32. I'm lovin' it and in both for the long term. I will be adding to the positions as the share prices allow. Thanks for this article and for your sound advice and wisdom.
    Jul 29 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "Can you cite one single case where an unserviced noise in the drive train has led to an actual failure?"

    No. I don't see a way to search for it on the Tesla Forum, no search function whatsoever. In the link I provided above, one owner has a "clunk" and his Model S quit on him. It went in for service but the "clunk" remains after service. However, if the noise is not an indication of possible drivetrain failure, why does Tesla replace it after such noise? Answer: because it may result in a drivetrain failure in the future.

    There are 2 journalists who had to have drivetrains replaced, Edmunds and Motor Trend, and the Model S quit on Edmunds. Then there is another auto journalist, Vincent Everts, whose Model S also quit on him. Three journalists who have had major problems with the Model S. What are the odds such problems experienced by auto journalists are unusual? Low, IMO. It's not the type of advertising a car company wants.

    http://bit.ly/1fYRKKF

    "I am just an EV enthusiast."

    Yeah, and the bias is showing, IMO.

    "So, how can we reconcile the fact that CR says not one single Model S owner reported a problem with the drivetrain, with the various reports of drive unit replacements?"

    I asked you to provide me with proof that no CR owner reported a problem with the drivetrain. You have not provided that proof, just an unsubstantiated statement. I don't believe you without proof.

    "I can only think of one way: That no case of drive unit noise has -ever- presaged an actual failure. Not one."

    That statement is based on an unsubstantiated claim that no CR owner has reported a problem with the drivetrain. Both are without credibility at this point. And besides, the 600 responses is not a scientific survey. The one I presented, where 25% of the drivetrains had to be replaced, is just as scientific as yours.

    "Engine failures for gas guzzlers under warranty are not -that- rare,"

    Show me a Model with multiple failures by multiple owners where the car is less than a year old. I dare ya, EV enthusiast.

    "Now when you presume to speak for "most" buyers and start bashing a company based on speculation rather than facts, you move from legitimate opinion to FUD."

    IT's simply my opinion, still legit for me.

    I am NOT trying to drive the stock price down or be overly negative on Tesla. I have defended Tesla on numerous occassions, including the 3 fires which occurred after the car hit road debris or crashed into a wall at high speed. I've also recently defended Tesla on an article about the car breaking in two at high speed. But, I do see the drivetrain and the excessive tire wear as serious problems. That's just me.
    Jul 29 01:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Fear Mongering Must Stop [View article]
    "All of these are usually not good for a manufacturing company."

    I would agree, if a company doesn't take deposits on its products. In Tesla's case, more finished goods inventory may be an indication of turning more deposits into revenue and sales, since the inventory has already been claimed by purchasers.

    The doubling of inventory maybe a bookkeeping formality. Once the car is picked up or delivered, it would go from finished goods to cost of goods sold. I don't know that the doubling of inventory has any significance whatsoever, except that Tesla has more inventory to immediately turn into sales, since the inventory has been pre ordered.
    Jul 28 10:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "The short-sellers here are trying to characterize all drive unit replacements as "failures". Tesla Motors techs providing extra customer care and replacing a drive unit due to a noise the customer either hadn't noticed or didn't complain about...

    That's rather far from a failure. That's exemplary customer service!"

    This is "Spin" by a Tesla bull or owner. I'd call it something else, but my post might get deleted.

    Actual Tesla owners see the "noise" and drivetrain problems as something other than isolated incidents. Legitimate problems, in other words. This is coming from owners who have experienced problems, not from Tesla bulls who disregard the reality of the problem.

    "Tesla has issues with its drive units, and as an owner, I am concerned.

    I have personally received two drive unit replacements in the 11 months and 11,000 miles that I've driven my car. Both replacements were due to noise, but were otherwise functioning normally. The noise was not something that could be overlooked, it was quite noticeable and louder than the stereo. Local Phoenix service told me that there was a period of time last year when they were doing "several drive units per week", and that's with fewer than 500 Model S cars in the state.

    The same service advisor also told me that some modifications and changes were made to the drive unit in order to address the droning noise issue, but he also said they continue to receive complaints. There is definitely something going on here."

    "Quickly... The drive unit is one of Tesla's supposed core competencies. It is entirely of Tesla's design and consists of a liquid cooled motor, inverter, gear reducer and other goodies. While modular and relatively straightforward to replace, functionally the drive unit is the equivalent of an ICE engine. How many ICE vehicles have you heard about requiring four engine replacements in the first year? Or even two, as is my case? As an owner of much less expensive vehicles, the possibility of experiencing multiple engine replacements in a brand new car was unthinkable until I experienced it twice with my Model S.

    According to this TMC poll, drive unit problems are afflicting over 50% of respondents. While that's hardly scientific, it tends to support the anecdotal evidence that these are not simply isolated incidents."

    http://bit.ly/1lRXdQV

    I suspect the "noise" is primarily due to the stress on the drivetrain created by the torque of the vehicle, as well as the deceleration of the vehicle putting stress on the drivetrain. Tesla may not be able to identify which car exhibiting such noise is going to have a drivetrain which fails, so they replace all of them. This reflects a problem Tesla seems unable to resolve, presently, but views it as serious enough to replace the drivetrain. This is inefficient and costly to Telsa, even if it's just the labor. This is a real issue for them. Whether they can resolve it remains to be seen.

    As a prospective car buyer, this would be enough to keep me away from Tesla, unless I was rich and had cash to burn and just wanted a Tesla. Most car buyers are going to bypass Tesla's Model III, IMO, at $35,000, unless this issue can be resolved. We simply don't have the money or time to put up with such nonsense. Each drivetrain replacement or "noise" repair is in effect a recall for a defect in manufacturing.

    Shoe me another vehicle manufacturer with this type of problem where the engine has to be replaced on a new vehicle in such volume. Or just show me a vehicle manufacturer where the transmission has to be replaced in volume on a new vehicle.
    Jul 28 12:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "The short-sellers here are trying to characterize all drive unit replacements as "failures"."

    You are addressing me, specifically, in your post. I am NOT short or long Tesla. I have no investment in Tesla of any sort. Stop calling me a short.
    Jul 28 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "The fallacy here is the use of the word "requiring". According to reports on the Tesla Motors Club forum, many-- possibly most-- of the drive unit replacements were due to TM service people noticing a noise and taking proactive measures. Not a complaint by the customer, let alone a failure of the drivetrain. This jibes with the reports from Edmunds.com. None of the drive unit replacements due to noise was requested by the Edmunds.com team; it was Tesla Motors techs who decided to do the replacements."

    If it were just "noise", as you call it, there would be no need to replace the entire drivetrain. Obviously, Telsa itself found defects and replaced what was defective. You don't replace a drivetrain for no reason, meaning they felt it could very well fail in the future due to what you consider "benign noise", thus the drivetrain was replaced.

    "Consumer Reports published a survey of 600 Model S owners, and not a single one reported a problem with the drivetrain. So contrary to your assertions, I think I'm safe in concluding the "milling noise" is -not- a significant problem for the company."

    Show me the detailed survey. I want to review it. Where does it show that "not a single one reported a problem with the drivetrain" or is this an assumption on your part? Show me the survey. I don't "assume" anything.

    As I stated higher up on this thread: "Most Tesla owners have a religious fervor for the technology and the company. Even if the "thing" can only do 50 mph in a freaking snowstorm with no heat in order to arrive at the next charging station, the owner is still adamant that it's the best thing since sliced bread. Replacing drivetrains infinitum is no different to such "folks". So much for the consumer satisfaction surveys. As a result of understanding the average Tesla owner psyche, I have to largely discount the surveys."

    My guess is that a number of folks on the Consumer Reports Surevey had problems with their Tesla but they were fixed under warranty, including drivetrains. Prove me wrong, show me the survey. Otherwise, I have to largely discount it due to unreasonable Tesla fanaticism.

    In this link, you have 6 out of 82 Telsa owners (7.3%) who had to have the drivetrain replaced due to FAILURE, not noise, then another 16 (19.5%) had the drivetrain replaced due to noise. You can argue this isn't a scientific survey, but the same is true of the Consumer Reports survey. Touche.

    http://bit.ly/X1v7hB
    Jul 27 11:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Fear Mongering Must Stop [View article]
    Here's a Mercury which split in two on July 17th in my city. The driver was killed. This is what can happen to any car at high speeds.


    http://bit.ly/X1rGYa
    Jul 27 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "TSLA shorters are trying to make the "milling noise" out to be a major problem. It's not-- it's just a noise, not a failure."

    Who really knows how big a problem this is, except Tesla itself? I don't, and I don't believe you do either. It makes sense that a car that can go from 0 to 60 in 4.2 seconds is going to put some serious stress on the drivetrain, doesn't it? Plus the deceleration on letting off the power pedal probably adds some stress as well. From what I am reading, at the Tesla forum, this looks like a legitimate problem that needs solving.

    "Tesla has issues with its drive units, and as an owner, I am concerned.

    I have personally received two drive unit replacements in the 11 months and 11,000 miles that I've driven my car. Both replacements were due to noise, but were otherwise functioning normally. The noise was not something that could be overlooked, it was quite noticeable and louder than the stereo. Local Phoenix service told me that there was a period of time last year when they were doing "several drive units per week", and that's with fewer than 500 Model S cars in the state.

    The same service advisor also told me that some modifications and changes were made to the drive unit in order to address the droning noise issue, but he also said they continue to receive complaints. There is definitely something going on here."

    "Quickly... The drive unit is one of Tesla's supposed core competencies. It is entirely of Tesla's design and consists of a liquid cooled motor, inverter, gear reducer and other goodies. While modular and relatively straightforward to replace, functionally the drive unit is the equivalent of an ICE engine. How many ICE vehicles have you heard about requiring four engine replacements in the first year? Or even two, as is my case? As an owner of much less expensive vehicles, the possibility of experiencing multiple engine replacements in a brand new car was unthinkable until I experienced it twice with my Model S.

    According to this TMC poll, drive unit problems are afflicting over 50% of respondents. While that's hardly scientific, it tends to support the anecdotal evidence that these are not simply isolated incidents."

    http://bit.ly/1lRXdQV

    IMO, this will have to be remedied before the average car buyer will consider a Model III. We aren't beta testers. Any company with such serious problems, not isolated ones, won't be considered by most of us. We don't have the money to play with. Every buck counts for us. We have to have something reliable that performs well. Nix the Model S on reliability. The non-GAAP financial reporting may be "crap" if the resale value doesn't hold up due to problems like this.

    Neither short nor long Tesla. No investment in Tesla whatsoever. PLease do not call me a short. That is a bald face lie. I believe there is a bias on the part of Tesla bulls and owners which chooses to disregard factual evidence on some weaknesses that need some corrective action.

    I defended Tesla on the fires, but not on the drive train and tires. Looks like a real problem to me, not isolated events like the fires.
    Jul 26 03:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 4 Reality Checks For Bulls To Consider [View article]
    "You do realize that a Model S can go about 100 miles on a 10 minute charge today?"

    Only if you are not sharing a charger. If you are the second person sharing a charger, your charging is going to be a lot slower. So, yes, under ideal conditions you may get a fast rate of charge. But we all know Murphy's Law.

    http://bit.ly/1phFlDL

    The drivetrain issue looks legit to me. My gut tells me the torque is just too much on the drivetrain. I do wonder if this will impact the resale value 3 years down the road from purchase. This definitely is fixable, but it may cost a second or two of time in accelerating from 0 to 60.

    http://bit.ly/1lRXdQV

    I think this fellow is gonna have an unpleasant surprise if he tries to make a trip to Chicago IL from Dallas Tx this weekend. There are no charger stations from Dallas to KS. It will be a long wait recharging without some kind of help.

    http://bit.ly/1phG3Rq
    Jul 25 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,538 Comments
3,229 Likes