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Bryce_in_TX

Bryce_in_TX
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  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    @Cparmerlee,

    I certainly may be wrong. I think that contradicts what you just said about me.
    May 10, 2015. 07:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    Davewmart,

    I never said I was the only who was objective. I said that historical data doesn't support the assertion that Tesla Model S sales are declining. We don't know the reason for the deposit decline for one quarter, but historical data from Tesla show that demand can be increasing when deposits are declining. In addition, we have word from the Company's CEO that demand is increasing, and such statements are subject to DOJ and or SEC action, if untrue.

    From all of that I deduce that the assertion that Model S demand is flat or declining is not very credible.
    May 10, 2015. 07:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    Davewmart,

    Excuse me for appearing TO YOU as being the only one who is objective.

    What I am saying is that without understanding the reason for the decline in one quarter's deposits, any supposition as to demand for the Model S doesn't look credible to me.

    Musk has stated that demand is increasing. IF that proved not to be true, he could be brought up on charges before the DOJ and or the SEC, could he not? Even I am not that stupid.

    I don't think you can make anything out of one quarter's decline or two. And given there is impetus for Musk not to lie in this situation, I tend to believe him.
    May 10, 2015. 06:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    Davewmart,

    I don't buy the bear bs here, and that is what it is to me.

    "It remains the opposite of what may reasonably be thought likely if sales are expanding,"

    I have presented the same scenario for 2012 to 2013 to show the fallacy in that statement. A decline for a quarter does not "reasonably" mean that sales are not expanding. 2012 and 2013 dispell that.
    May 10, 2015. 06:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    Peter,

    If the resale value holds up, then it stands to reason most of the cars won't be sold back to Tesla. If the car is sold back, then nix the gross margin from the RVG. No gross margin would result from the RVG in that case. It would have to come from the CPO sale.
    May 10, 2015. 06:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @robiniv,

    Good point, it does assume all customers keep their cars.
    May 10, 2015. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    Davewmart and all who say Tesla deposits are declining,

    Customer deposits at 12-31-12 were $138.8 million. Customer deposits as of 3-31-13, 1 quarter later, were $130.7 million. (See page 4 of 1st qtr 2013 10-Q)
    http://1.usa.gov/1cn53oh

    Yet total customer deposits at 12-31-13 were $163.5 million. (See page 91 of 10-K)

    http://1.usa.gov/1cn50ZS

    Based on the above historical data, I find your analysis lacking by judging from just one quarter's decline. Customer deposits, year over year, may not be declining.
    May 10, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @cparmerlee,

    The guaranteed resale value (GRV) sales began in 2013. The GRV amounts won't begin to be reflected in GAAP revenues until 2016, 3 years after the sales were made. However, in addition to the revenues to be recognized from the GRV, the cost of sales associated with those revenues must be recognized at the same time.

    As of 12-31-2014, the total amount of GRV liabilities was $488 million. AT a 25% gross margin, that would equate to $122 million being added to gross margin under GAAP for all GRV sales through 2014. In 2016 that will be about $59 million ($236.3 million X 25%) and in 2017 about $63 million. It's not a lot to add to the bottom line.

    The non-GAAP deduction of stock based compensation adds more to Tesla's bottom line, a total of $240 million through 2014. Non-GAAP says Musk is not being paid compensation for his services, which is not credible.

    Non-GAAP also deducts non-cash interest expense on convertible debt, a deduction I have yet to understand the reason for. That amounts to $85 million for years 2013 and 2014.
    May 10, 2015. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @mikestesla,

    Musk doesn't know yet what the GM will be on the batteries, so to think you do is blarney, IMO. As I said, it's too early to know what impact the battery business will have on Tesla. You think it will add $70 per share to the value. It's just an opinion at this point, with no hard data to back it up, just like Skilling's statement on EBS. EBS had a long term contact with Blockbuster. Similar to the reservations Tesla has with utility and business customers. A person can theorize what value that will have on the company, but until operations begin and hard data starts coming in, it's all theory and conjecture.

    As for knowing more than I do about the solar energy business, I'll give you that. But not how the revenues or expenses are recognized or when.
    May 10, 2015. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @TES,

    "If thats their financing strategy, they need a new CFO."

    What experience do you have in the auto sales industry? And what is your background/experience, work wise? Your profile says "Investment Consultant". Do you have a license or have you self proclaimed yourself a "consultant".

    What do you know about corporate finance to make such a statement?
    May 8, 2015. 10:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @ TES,

    "Peter, while Tesla may only list a few hundred cars on the CPO site at any one time, it is well known that they have repurchased far more. They are dribbling them out, obviously. "

    Why don't you produce some evidence of exactly what Tesla has repurchased. Enlighten us.
    May 8, 2015. 10:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @Technology Equity Strategies,

    "Its sad that it takes so long for sleaze to reach its true level. But eventually it does."

    Says the person who compared Tesla's employee productivity, in its start up phase, to mature auto companies. Talk about sleaze. I suggest you get off your high horse, Dude.
    May 8, 2015. 10:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @robiniv,

    Read the link:

    http://bloom.bg/1IXb5Jj

    "Baird & Co. and Morgan Stanley don’t yet include the battery storage products in their valuations of Tesla. Getting an accurate estimate of demand may take more than a year, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas wrote in note to investors after Tesla reported earnings. JPMorgan Chase's Ryan Brinkman values the new storage business at $15 a share, or about $1.9 billion. 'While we believe it is still quite early to estimate with a good degree of accuracy,' he said, 'we do look kindly upon it.'

    It will take some time to get an idea of how this is going to impact Tesla.
    May 8, 2015. 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @mikestesla,

    That should help with revenues, but what is the timeline for those revenues to be generated in a significant amount? Does Tesla have the funds to keep things going until that revenue stream comes online? What is going to be the actual gross margin provided by this? Musk said it's too early to know. He gave an off the top of his head figure of 20% after these battery systems were in large mass scale production, but that isn't anything hard or even knowable at this point. It's way to early to "know" how this is going to affect their profitability and cash flow.

    At present, Tesla's cash flow is negative. Will that change this year? Musk and his CFO have said so. But, currently, the situation is as I have described. There is much risk to investing in Tesla. In the future, the battery systems may help, but that is sometime in the future, when and if that helps, I don't know. It was announced April 30. It's only been 8 days. There is much more information needed to have an idea of how this will impact Tesla, IMO.

    I remember reading about Enron's broadband division, Enron Broadband Services (EBS), and how that was going to add some $40 to Enron's share price, according to Skilling. They had signed a long term contract with Blockbuster. I'm sure there was much fanfare in the media when the Blockbuster contract was announced. They prematurely booked some $100 million in revenue in 4th Qtr 2000 and 1st Qtr 2001. It all had to be reversed in 3rd Qtr 2001 and Blockbuster pulled out of the contract. Nothing ever materialized from it.

    So, too little information is known about the battery systems at this point for me to assign any value to it.
    May 8, 2015. 06:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Pull Off A Fourth Quarter Miracle? [View article]
    @mikestesla,

    Yes, but that is not cash flow generated by operations. That is financing cash flow. I don't consider financing cash flow in calculating free cash flow or being cash flow positive and I know of no one who does. Being cash flow positive means generating sufficient cash flow from operations, not from financing, whether you are talking about operating cash flow or free cash flow. Financing cash flow isn't in either.
    May 8, 2015. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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