Being an early pensioner at 46 and travelling in developing countries for possibly the rest of my life I'm looking for a source of income that keeps me going for as long as I favour. Since my starting capital is healthy but not enormous I can only keep doing so if my annual income is big enough right from the start, remains healthy and predictable for the unforeseen future through all kinds of economic climates, and beats the average inflation rate in developing countries; the biggest countries where I'm likely to spend most of my time being the most influential in my calculations. In my previous life I've been quite successful with options trading but surprisingly much less so with stock picking or even ETF picking. But since market timing and trading are not the kind of thing I want to do for the rest of my life (if possible at all when travelling) I had to look for an alternative. After 2 years of possibly reading thousands of articles about asset allocation and portfolio building I fell in love with the utter simplicity, diversity and results of Harry Browne's 1989 version of the Permanent Portfolio (not the mutual fund, ETF or Craig Rowland versions though) and I learned a lot about bonds, commodities, rebalancing, the power of doing nothing and most important of all: the fact that we absolutely have no clue what will happen and make or break markets in the remote or even near future. However, I had to come to the conclusion that the impressive results (9% per year over a 43 year time span with only 4 down years, a maximum draw of an incredible 4% in 1981 and extremely low volatility) probably wouldn't beat developing world inflation rates in the long run, meaning that I would have to touch principle. Since I have no idea whether I will die tomorrow, at 50, 75 or 100 that doesn't seem to be a clever plan as I would very likely run out of money before I run out of vital breath. I tried modifying the Permanent Portfolio in various ways to spice up results, the most interesting being changing allocation shares, no rebalancing, replacing a US market fund by individual dividend growth stocks so adding dividends to capital appreciation, replacing individual US long term treasury bonds by individual long term investment grade sovereign emerging market bonds denominated in local currencies, adding other commodities to gold for seasonal trading, and replacing cash by emerging market CDs, again denominated in local currencies to make use of changing exchange rates. But then after some unexpected moves on more than one of these fronts I started thinking how predictable this all would become in the future and whether I really needed these risks. The answer was a firm No. But the exercise had been great. Then what? After discovering SeekingAlpha and getting more and more interested in dividend growth stocks and hedging risks I started thinking about the best way to increase income through dividends for an unusual big part of my portfolio and hedge the income risks very aggressively with just a tiny part of the portfolio. Right now I'm in the phase of identifying the best dividend growth stocks for a kind of Buy & Die portfolio (buying stocks without any intention to sell unless there's an extreme situation, and just harvesting dividends to support my life style). And besides that I'm trying to learn as much as possible about hedging risks, costs and rewards while rethinking the value of the Permanent Portfolio on my life style as buying only once, an annual rebalance action lasting less than an hour and never ever reading about individual companies, ETFs, sectors, markets or even the whole economy for the rest of my life is extremely enticing as well. The second path I'm following is extremely different although again inspired by the Permanent Portfolio but also by momentum strategies, leverage, asset allocation and hedging outside the momentum portfolio. I want my momentum portfolio ideally to be ever lasting as not to end up rethinking my strategy after every single market dip. Now that I've designed such a portfolio including hedges, et cetera, I invest every month in the 3 best ETFs over a 3 month period that are on my list. So far, so good and if I ever find the time to write and share about the selection process of building a multi asset momentum portfolio layer by layer I would love to do so. And with that I'm at the biggest mistake I made since deciding to start travelling: I thought time was all I had. Well, that may be true but somehow it's incredibly hard to find! drftr
David Moenning is Chief Investment Officer at Sowell Management Services, a registered investment advisor with more than $500 million under management. Sowell emphasizes an MPD (Modern Portfolio Diversification) approach to portfolio design which diversifies client holdings not only across asset classes but also by strategy, manager, and investment methodology. Dave began his investment career in 1980 and has been an independent money manager since 1987. Thus, Dave has been live on the firing line and investing for a living for nearly 30 years.
I am an individual Value investor with a long term view, with a background in engineering. I understand and have an interest in business and operations.
That said, I see the value in quantitative investing and the use of historical data. This allows me to assess the probability of an investment strategy to perform in the future. I avoid speculation, unfounded claims and market timing.
My focus is on long ideas with a contrarian and deep value spin, but I also work elements of momentum into my strategies as well.
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Value investor pur sang.
An investor who outperforms when markets tank and underperforms when markets rise, displays a sound risk management. An investor who outperforms in a rising markets is simply (and maybe without knowing it) taking too many risks. The lower drawdowns that accompany value investing allow it to deliver returns that even may equal a buy-and-hold equity-investor. The immense drawdowns encountered by the latter may very well cause him to abandon his buy-and-hold strategy at the worst possible moments… When a value investor is underperforming, he will most of the time still enjoy positive, absolute returns….
Value investing can (and will by the Belgian Dentist) be applied to (most importantly) asset allocation, but also to:
• Country selection,
• Sector selection and
• Security selection.
I focus on strategic investment management across multiple asset-classes, quantitative data analyses and the creation of multi-asset portfolios. Previously, I have been a finance professional in London where I worked closely at and with the leading names in asset management. I've always enjoyed reading and interacting on Seeking Alpha, and have decided in 2015 to become a contributor to share some of my ideas and thoughts. I look forward to interesting discussions and exchanges about the markets. Visit quantfriend.com for asset allocation, investment strategies and financial market data.
Over 12 years’ experience in the agricultural investment sector working in product development, transaction advisory and research roles. A broad range of experience in the horticulture, sugar, grain and beef sectors utilising his skills in financial modelling, risk analysis and legal frameworks. Deo is a qualified lawyer with a Bachelor of Economics/Bachelor of Laws from the University of Western Australia. Deo also has an MBA from Melbourne Business School and is a CFA Charterholder. Deo holds the position of Company Secretary and is a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.
View our website at: www.RotationInvest.com
RotationInvest.com provides quantitative tools to facilitate research and anaylisis of a wide variety of exchange trade funds (ETFs), stocks, and mutual funds.
Custom build your own rotation, asset allocation, moving average portfolio, market timing, volatility targeting, rebalanced portfolios, and risk on risk off strategies using our backtesting tools. Also strategies that trade your portfolio equity using the same powerful tools that rotate, allocation, and rebalance your regular stocks/ETFs.
Our tools are highly customizable, and utilize modern graphics with fully interactive daily charts of performance, drawdown, and trade transitions. Our tools allow users to test a wide variety of ideas on almost any stock, ETF or mutual fund ticker.
Ron Rowland is a portfolio manager with Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd., a Registered Investment Advisor specializing in active management, located in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.
He has been providing market commentary and active investment advice since 1991. He is the founder and editor of Invest With An Edge, a website and weekly newsletter providing free actionable ideas for ETFs, and the home of ETF Deathwatch.
Additionally, he is the Executive Editor of the All Star Investor newsletter (http://allstarinvestor.com), a highly regarded paid subscription investment service he started in 1991.
I founded and manage Servo Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) firm that helps people achieve financial independence, a secure retirement, and positions them to leave a meaningful financial legacy.
I am an early career scientific researcher who has taken a strong interest in investing, both for achieving my personal financial goals as well as serving as an alternative conduit where critical and logical thinking are rewarded. I write articles to share ideas, refine my own thinking and invite discussion from the astute readership of Seeking Alpha.
For a better Seeking Alpha experience on your phone, please consider viewing the website on your browser (request desktop site for full functionality) instead of through the Seeking Alpha app.
Within the academic field, I have a career total of 89 publications and 5 book chapters, 2,900 total citations and an h-index of 32 (metrics from Google Scholar).
Paul Allen is editor of WallStreetCourier.com
WallStreetCourier.com is an independent research- and investment advisor for selected stock market information. The main vision of WSC is to provide high quality market research for individuals, hedge funds, and institutional investors with different trading horizons.
Everyone deserves to invest their money in the safest, most flexible way possible, without paying huge fees or sacrificing meaningful returns. Hedgewise strives to become the first wealth manager to take the best ideas from hedge funds and institutions and make them available to anyone, while keeping fees low and capital requirements to a minimum. There have been tremendous innovations in finance over the past decade which have only benefited a select few, and I believe it is time for that to change.
Hedgewise is owned and run by Mr. Lee Tobey, who previously worked at one of the largest hedge funds in the world and has all of his own wealth invested in Hedgewise products.
Retired 42yr old semiconductor industry exec. Currently living in my RV traveling the US. 'Working' part time managing my retirement portfolio and making sure it lasts forever!
Writing a blog about my investments and managing a retirement portfolio.
James Picerno is a financial journalist who has been writing about finance and investment theory for more than twenty years. He writes for trade magazines read by financial professionals and financial advisers. Over the years, he’s written for the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg Markets, Mutual Funds, Modern Maturity, Investment Advisor, Reuters, and his popular finance blog, The CapitalSpectator.
Visit: The Capital Spectator (www.capitalspectator.com)
I am a graduate student in biostatistics at Emory University in Atlanta, GA, and an individual investor. While my investments are mostly in low-cost index funds, I enjoy analyzing stock market trends and trying to find ways to beat the market.
Right now I'm convinced that the best way to beat the market is to pair a leveraged S&P 500 ETF (e.g. UPRO) with a total bond fund (e.g. BND). With one-third allocated to UPRO and two-thirds to BND, you get a portfolio with beta approximately 1 (depending on the current correlation between stocks and bonds) and alpha two-thirds that of BND's alpha. The result is a portfolio that sort of mimics SPY, but with an extra couple percentage points added on each year.
I favor computational investment methods over traditional fundamental or technical analysis, which require subjective analysis of earnings reports and visual assessments of price charts, respectively.
Gary Antonacci has over 40 years experience as an investment professional focusing on underexploited investment opportunities. His innovative research on momentum investing was the first place winner in 2012 and the second place winner in 2011 of the prestigious Wagner Award for Advances in Active Investment Management given annually by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM).
His research introduced the investment world to dual momentum, which combines relative strength price momentum with trend following absolute momentum. Antonacci is author of the award-winning book, Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Approach to Higher Returns with Lower Risk, and is is recognized as a foremost authority on the practical applications of momentum investing.
Antonacci received his MBA degree from the Harvard Business School in 1978. Since then, he has concentrated on researching, developing, and applying innovative investment strategies that have their basis in academic research. He serves as a consultant and public speaker on asset allocation, portfolio construction, and advanced momentum strategies.More about Antonacci and dual momentum can be found on http://optimalmomentum.com.
My profession is in biomedical research. I have over 25 years experience investing and trading stocks, options, ETFs, mutual funds, and futures in most asset classes, including volatility. I have a long-standing interest in algorithmic trading strategies. Over the last several years, we have worked towards developing and in some cases deploying with real money the strategies we have developed.
Harry Long is the inventor of Hedged Contango Capture and Hedged Convexity Capture and is the Managing Partner of ZOMMA, the world's most innovative strategy index creator.
Mr. Long is a globally recognized expert on the research and development of quantitative investment strategies. The ZOMMA IP portfolio of strategy indices is sought after by asset management firms, investment banks, hedge funds, principal trading organizations, index providers, ETP sponsors, and private equity firms to help them develop and deploy active manager-crushing quantitative investment strategies.
ZOMMA helps investors create long term value by replacing reckless emotional decision making with cutting-edge technology based upon objective evidence.
Mr. Long is a graduate of Rice University with a B.A. in Economics.
Note: Due to the sheer number of requests for bespoke quant strategies, research projects, and quant consulting services, we have instituted the following pricing for the non-exclusive licensing of our algorithms to institutions:
I. Exclusive commercial licenses for unique bespoke algorithms run six figures and up.
II. Non-exclusive AUM licensing fees for our strategy indices run 10 basis points and up for commercial licenses.
Please realize that we often get more than 3,000 e-mails per week. This means that we read everything that comes in, but we cannot respond to any email or message that does not include the sender's full name, phone number, request, and budget. Thank you for your understanding.
This Dubai-like pricing is necessary, because we can't freely give answers to tough problems which we have dedicated massive R&D capital to solving. World-class statistical talent is hugely expensive, valuable, and rare. Our clients recognize that outsourcing quant work to our firm and paying our fees represent a huge cost savings over hiring full time employees, and usually results in a far more profitable, turn-key solution.
Institutional investment manager authoring on a variety of topics that pique my interest, and could further discourse in this online community. I hold an MBA from the University of Chicago, and have earned the CFA designation.
My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.
I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and eight grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S. degree from Caltech (1973), and a M.A. - Biblical Studies degree from Birmingham Theological Seminary (2013). I worked at Pratt & Whitney (1973-1986) and CFD Research Corporation (1987-2008).
Now in retirement and trying to preserve my life savings, I currently have a strong interest in tactical asset allocation strategies, and have studied them extensively. I have developed a number of tactical strategies involving the periodic trading of ETFs and, more recently, mutual funds. These strategies have been backtested mainly using Portfolio Visualizer and ETFreplay software. The goal is to earn 10-15% annually with no negative years, and to have maximum drawdowns of less than 10%, preferably less than 5%. The strategies include purchasing a limited number of funds with the highest growth and lowest volatility, and minimizing risk using moving average, dual momentum, and risk parity methods. I have developed strategies for equity as well as bond assets.
Author of Quantitative Investing, the Quantitative Risk & Value letter and the free Market Timing Signals. Often in the SeekingAlpha top 5 on Portfolio Strategy. Available model portfolios: market neutral, growth, closed-end funds, Vix trading. For more information, click "send message".
PhD, Software Engineer, Civil Engineer, 20+ years working in various sectors and countries. Also a lifelong rock climber and ex ski-mountaineering racer.
Frank Grossmann (founder and partner of logical-invest.com)
I am Swiss and living in Zurich. I studied Microtechnics at the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne and Business Administration at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich. After the studies in 1989 I founded Labocontrol AG. This company was sold to the US company Digital Now Inc. where I continued to work as a chief scientist.
Since 13 years I have my own software company Colour-Science.com which develops algorithms for digital image processing. These algorithms do things like image enhancement, red eye removal or pattern (face) detection. My passion however was always to search for pattern in financial data and then develop and back test rule based investment strategies.
I am a patent litigator with a background in physics and electronics. I enjoy studying quantitative, rules-based investment methods through rigorous backtesting and numerical analysis. I believe that patterns exist in the market that benefit trading -- the challenge is finding them!
Individual investor. On double secret probation for commenting on SA articles, especially for pointing out that a portfolio that an RIA was using as an example of the kind of great advice he would provide had a drawdown of over 60%.