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  • Cree Experiences A Stock Surge Despite Stiff Competition [View article]
    J Snow, you missed my point...your lipstick on a pig reference clearly was meant as a message to longs...but shorts also need to consider if they are in love with their CREE short.
    So the reference can serve as a warning to someone who sees the negative in CREE as much as it is to someone who sees the positive. It's just another of those Wall Street axioms that are applied at the will of the user.
    Jan 29, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Excellent summary. However, the key metric is what you come to in your Bottom Line...the stock price of BABA, which is by far YHOO's major component. Yahoo Japan might help, but if the criticisms of BABA out of China's SAIC are very troublesome, not just for BABA but for YHOO. I am long both, but by tomorrow morning, if not tonight, I will be out of both...not shorting, just getting out of the way for the time being. It might mean I miss out on a lift from BABA's earnings tomorrow 7 am, but risk-reward is more to the downside if China feels they need to rein in BABA and its bold-talking founder.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree Experiences A Stock Surge Despite Stiff Competition [View article]
    Lately CREE is being accumulated on above average volume, which means that new money is coming into the stock faster than old money is leaving. It may not last...but falling in love with a short also can be a mistake.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree Experiences A Stock Surge Despite Stiff Competition [View article]
    Even if this article was accurate, why not use "acquire" instead of "smother" when referring to a large company vis a vis CREE? That seems to be the norm with a company that has leading technology.
    Jan 27, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Enters New Security Concessions With Beijing [View article]
    Sounds like Apple is being realistic about the situation in China and how its potential users would feel about privacy or the lack thereof in the censored world that is China. At the same time, the more we open doors in China the better off their people will be.
    While some will give them points for protecting privacy, sooner or later Google execs will have to face the fact that it is not their world to "protect" when they choose to and "not protect" when they are the privacy invaders.
    Jan 26, 2015. 03:37 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The handbag rally is back on [View news story]
    How many "detailed surveys" that turn out wrong do you need to see before you realize they are statistically invalid.Going into almost every significant earnings there are experts declaring positive or negative stats.
    At least we now have tipranks to begin telling us based on past results, but then, "past results are no predictor...."
    Long KORS, so I hope Cowen is right, but I learned to take these surveys with a huge grain of salt.

    Jamie Dimon in an interview yesterday was asked about how JPM missed analyst estimates. His appropriate response was that the analysts missed the actuals.
    Jan 22, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The handbag rally is back on [View news story]
    I guess we need to wait until Feb 5 for actual results to find out which analysts actually know what they are talking about. Bain study negative, Oppenheimer downgrades, then Cowen upgrades. We seem to go through this regularly with KORS leading up to earnings.
    Long KORS because it makes money and grows.
    Short analysts and street guesstimates.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enumeral: An Undiscovered And Undervalued Biotechnology Company [View article]
    I'm a little late coming to this analysis. Much sounds good, but how do you figure "Our financial model predicts the company is well funded into 2017". Unless you are counting on deals from big pharma, I don't see much revenue against the need to develop their programs. Sans such deals to fully cover programs, this converts to dilution...not the end of the world, but a consideration in assessing the future of the stock, particularly if it might involve a significant discount from then-current market.
    Jan 17, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auspex Firing On All Cylinders [View article]
    Thank you, Jason, for this article and even more so for your "15 Biotech Names..." article of Jan 5. I have already bought into AMBS and NRIFF as a result, albeit a week later than I might have had I found time to read and analyze the article sooner. Also watching CYNAF, NBIX and PRTX to come down before buying in.
    Regarding ASPX, in the 15 Biotechs you wrote:
    "…we calculate a fair value for Auspex Pharmaceuticals of approximately $1.9 billion, or $60 per share. We think positive Phase 3 data in TD around the middle of 2015 has the potential to add $10-15 to our price target."
    Any change in that assessment?
    Jan 14, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even From A Bottom, J.C. Penney Made No Gains On Macy's The Last 2 Holiday Seasons [View article]
    What JCP did to justify the negativity was, under Ron Johnson, opening them up to a real decline in their performance. That attracted the vultures, i.e., shorts, who made a lot of money in JCP. Human nature being what it is, they want to make more so they continue to broadcast their negativity.
    When Johnson was in charge, their take was accurate, but he has been gone for awhile and JCP has addressed the cash flow and survival concerns, has improved its financial position, and is taking back market share. Still, the shorts pound away, but the market at large is paying less and less attention to them.
    My concern right now is that they may have bought their recent sales at too high a price, in the form of big discounts. So their next earnings report (c. 2/24) will tell us more about their progress. If it is a good one, it will be another setback for the shorts, and we can only hope they will seek new victims. If it is not a good one, the hyenas will come screeching back.
    One key metric for JCP is that high short interest. As long as a third of the stock is shorted, you can expect a continuing flood of negative articles, even from the "bulls"... keeping in mind that "bull" can be interpreted as a description of the content rather than the writer's stance position in the stock.
    Jan 13, 2015. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares Of Taser Relatively Unchanged After Los Angeles Police Department Order - Time To Sell? [View article]
    1. Per this Dec. 17 SA Breaking News item:
    The LAPD has signed a contract to buy 800 of Taser's (NASDAQ:TASR) Axon body cameras. Moreover, the city states Mayor Eric Garcetti will "provide funding in his budget for FY 2015-16 to acquire the approximately 7,000 total cameras needed to ensure all officers on the street will be outfitted." So this Tuesday's announcement was old news, built into the stock...along with numerous other orders and the general expectation that orders will continue to flow in.
    2. You make a good point about the valuation, but this is an event and product driven stock. If I were a trader I might be more interested in the chart, but all it takes is one bad incident for the chart to lose all significance and buyers waiting for a drop will be watching it run away from them.
    3. No doubt there will be some ups and downs in the stock, but the TASR products address an important need in our society, not just for enforcement, but for monitoring criminal and police activities...and the company continues to lead in expanding the services they offer to police departments.
    4. Unless you feel that the stock cannot climb back from what you anticipate will be a possible move down, it seems to me that you buy TASR for its long term prospects rather than for its next chart move.
    Jan 10, 2015. 11:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney up 16.3% AH on strong comps [View news story]
    I am rooting for JCP, the company, but watch out because the shorts do not give up on this stock. The nimble ones get out fast, then they sell short again and ALWAYS find some reason to talk it back down. The company is going to have to stick it to the vultures at least two more times before they turn to a new and different target.
    More important than the stock is that it looks like the company has survived the worst.
    Jan 6, 2015. 06:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Gilead has not been able to change the widespread feeling that it was greedy in setting the prices. With that, actions like those of Express Scripts will be applauded.
    Throw in the foreign discounts...how do you think Americans will feel about what they are expected to pay in the face of those discounts?
    You can say all you want about superiority, but this undercurrent of opinion that the price was set too high is something Gilead is going to have to deal with...if they can, because if the $1000 a pill was the fair price, dropping that price in the U.S. or overseas will be painful to profits...not just margins, but earnings per share.
    A related aspect: if Express Scripts takes business from other PBMs because of what might be perceived as a consumer protection action, in this monkey-see, monkey-do world, wouldn't that pressure those other PBMs to take similar action?
    Note: I am NOT short GILD, and have no intention of shorting this or any other biotech stock. I sold GILD at a profit awhile ago, but until I sense that they have stemmed the tide of negative opinion, I wish them well, but can't buy the stock.
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands' Troubles And The Parallels To Starbucks [View article]
    1. Let's see:
    Macy's same as JC Penney
    Starbucks same as Dunkin
    Long opinion same as short opinion
    2. SA, the article should be prefaced: "Disclosure: The author HAS A SHORT position…" Then we could read it in the appropriate context.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Record Q2 Results Help Push Michael Kors Back Towards Its Highs? [View article]
    This whole concept of judging a performance based on analysts' expectations is getting out of hand.
    So when the SF Giants or KC Royals win the World Series, should their fans be upset because they expected their home town favorites to sweep in four games and each team has already lost one?
    That's how the stock market works, KORS' last quarter being an excellent example of an excellent performance that didn't satisfy the analysts, particularly since analysts don't understand that the "miss" was on gross profit margin, which is only an intermediate point on the way to what counts, which is net profit.
    What I do now is look at estimate trends and when they are moving too fast, that is a warning for a reversal when the numbers come in just fine by normal standards, but not by analysts' standards.
    Oct 24, 2014. 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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