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  • Will Record Q2 Results Help Push Michael Kors Back Towards Its Highs? [View article]
    This whole concept of judging a performance based on analysts' expectations is getting out of hand.
    So when the SF Giants or KC Royals win the World Series, should their fans be upset because they expected their home town favorites to sweep in four games and each team has already lost one?
    That's how the stock market works, KORS' last quarter being an excellent example of an excellent performance that didn't satisfy the analysts, particularly since analysts don't understand that the "miss" was on gross profit margin, which is only an intermediate point on the way to what counts, which is net profit.
    What I do now is look at estimate trends and when they are moving too fast, that is a warning for a reversal when the numbers come in just fine by normal standards, but not by analysts' standards.
    Oct 24, 2014. 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Plans To Make Its Pyramid Scheme More Lethal [View article]
    I stopped reading the article when I came to:
    "The building blocks for the crime are as follows:"
    Then in a search for "crime" I could not find any substantiation. It may not be a crime to make such charges, but it is not right to do so. (The only way I could excuse it is if a narrow reading of "building blocks" means that you are acknowledging that they have not yet committed a crime.)
    Then skimming the comments it struck me that the shorts and critics who claim to be taking the high ground also are not reluctant to make their own unsubstantiated claims.
    Some people will do and say anything to make a quick buck...but they always have some reason why they are doing this for the sake of others or in the interest of honesty. "With friends like these..."
    If you want to do something good for others, start a business of your own that brings income to lots of people. Or at the very least, stop trying to bring one down in order to line your own pockets. To suggest that this is all just one big scheme and repeat that over and over does not make it so.
    To me, the measure of Herbalife is in the people who make or lose money participating in the program, not in the statements from people who want to make money shorting the stock.
    Oct 21, 2014. 09:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not So Cool Anymore [View article]
    More often than not, use of the word cool is itself not cool.
    I'm not sure if the cool factor ever counted for much in the decision process.
    If you rely on the TV commercials to make your decisions or stock evaluations, Samsung seized the cool factor in the market where dopes don't have a mind of their own. But what good has it done Samsung, whose sales are not cool, but have gone cold.
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira And The Sad State Of Ebola Stocks [View article]
    1. In my opinion, TKMR's Ebola pipeline is not worth the price at which the stock now sits. I was in the stock, sold in the 20s, before Ebola news started pushing the stock up and down, and back then it had fallen to something like $14. I got in and out again with the Ebola news, but am out now because this is no longer an investment, but an emotional bet...just look at the moves based on news reports...and read the comments above.
    2. If you have the inclination and the stomach for fast elevator rides, you probably will make money as Ebola spreads and the media disaster coverage gets out of hand.
    Then when we tire of Ebola news the stock will settle back. But I don't think we can deny that to the extent this stock price is driven by Ebola news, the short-term news will get worse and TKMR's stock price will get better.
    3. It's probably too late, but it would have made more sense to buy the stocks of companies who sell to hospitals the equipment and supplies they will need to handle deadly illnesses like this while also protecting workers and the public at large.
    4. Which leaves me looking in from the outside and rooting for companies that are battling other diseases, not just Ebola. For TKMR, that means waiting until the Ebola air comes out of the balloon, then I will buy back in.
    Oct 14, 2014. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXAS: Testing Negative For Future Revenue [View article]
    When the speculation ends and reality this case in the form of the Medicare/Medicaid decision, I like to look back to see "who said what" and factor them into my credibility quotient. When someone uses the name "Gravity Research" it suggests they lean to stocks going down...a bias.
    So in future, when I see a call by "Gravity Research" I will know that I need to filter in that bias to the downside.
    Oct 10, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Interests Re: GT Advanced Technologies [View article]
    Whoever wrote this headline needs to be disciplined.
    Apple DID NOT acquire GTAT.
    Oct 7, 2014. 10:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Imetelstat: No Threat Now Or Possibly Ever To Incyte's Jakafi Franchise [View article]
    MedGuy103, at the risk of inviting your wrath on me, you should understand that the more attacks you make, the weaker your position becomes, and the stronger the author's presentation becomes.
    Less heat, more light, will improve your credibility...but I doubt you will want to hear that much less practice it.
    Sep 23, 2014. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals' Ebola Run-Up Isn't In Touch With Reality [View article]
    1. the company President and CEO states: "Our TKM-Ebola drug supplies are limited, but we will continue to help where we can, as we continue to focus on the other important objectives we have to advance therapies to meet the unmet needs of patients." That does not suggest to me that they are looking to their Ebola program as a significant factor.
    2. There was a run-up in the stock before the Ebola story...and then a pull-back.
    3. The latest run-up parallels the increase in the Ebola concerns.
    4. I made my money during the run-up before the Ebola story, but this stock is driven way too much by speculation, long or short.
    5. It would be helpful if the speculators would follow management's lead and focus on its long-term strengths, but where there is fast money to be made the focus will be on daily events.
    6. I would like to be long TKMR, but at an entry price below yesterday's 23...and I see it is above 25 pre-market today, based on Ebola news.
    7. In theory, I can see the argument to be short, but the market in general and TKMR in particular does not respond well to theory when emotions are running rampant. So...logical thought may well be logical, but it is not REALISTIC to be logical with a stock like this.
    8. ahande, you may prove to be correct that it will be a lifetime short at $35, but if I were short today, even the slightest suggestion that it might go to $35 would have me covering my short ASAP, rather than holding on, then tripling down when it reaches $35. Logical, perhaps, but not REALISTIC.
    Sep 23, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corp. Has A Framework To Treat Ebola Patients [View article]
    It looks to me as if the company is less interested in its Ebola program than investors are.
    Here is what Dr. Mark J. Murray Tekmira's President and CEO said, "We have already responded to requests for the use of our investigational agent in several patients under emergency protocols, in an effort to help these patients, a goal we share with the FDA and Health Canada. TKM-Ebola has been administered to a number of patients and the repeat infusions have been well tolerated. However, it must be kept in mind that any uses of the product under expanded access, does not constitute controlled clinical trials. These patients may be infected with a strain of Ebola virus which has emerged subsequent to the strain that our product is directed against, and physicians treating these patients may use more than one therapeutic intervention in an effort to achieve the best outcome," said Dr. Murray. "Our TKM-Ebola drug supplies are limited, but we will continue to help where we can, as we continue to focus on the other important objectives we have to advance therapies to meet the unmet needs of patients."
    That last sentence says to me that they will do what they can, but do not see this as a viable part of their business on which they are going to concentrate. As I write this, the stock is up 17% today, which makes me wonder if TKMR might sell the Ebola program...or be bought out in its entirety(?)
    Sep 22, 2014. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: Anxiety Is Premature - The Company Is At A Critical Stage [View article]
    The puzzle should not be about KORS but about Market rational. A stock goes up for good reasons, the reasons continue, but the market decides that it has gone far enough, so reasons are found to push the stock down. In KORS' case, it was concern about gross profits (by non-accountants who do not understand the roll of GP in evaluating a company). So COH reports relatively poor results but goes up. Why? Because the Market decides it has gone down far enough.
    Sometimes trading ranges appear to be more important than company fundamentals. However, trying to be rational in the face of market behavior is a losing proposition.
    Long KORS as in investor, not a trader.
    Sep 16, 2014. 05:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Continue Betting On A Turnaround At J.C. Penney [View article]
    What is most revealing is not the article, which is fine, but how the constantly carping JCP shorts have become so silent. Short interest is still high, but the enthusiasm is no longer there. To me, this suggests there will be short covering at any opportunity, even if it is at a loss, which then makes for a nice buying base for the stock.
    Add to that, the signs that omni-channel retail is strengthening will also bolster the price and squeeze the shorts.
    Sep 12, 2014. 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Isis - Addressing Some Of The Bull Arguments To My Short Thesis [View article]
    "After reading the comments on my initial article on Isis (NASDAQ:ISIS), I thought it might be interesting to try to address some of the intelligent issues raised by readers. I will try to address some of the recurring arguments below."
    Here it is more than two months later and there were no responses from the author either within this article or in a follow up. In fact, from what I see there are no other articles from Market Doc on SA.
    Are there side effects from eating your own words?
    Sep 11, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Remains On Track With Pimavanserin Program [View article]
    That "Street" language is common for companies like ACAD that are pouring money into research and development...and the closer they get to the end target the more they need to spend. If you want strong growth in earnings, improving net income and strong operating cash flow, try GILD or any number of other companies that at one time might have been described in similar fashion to ACAD.
    Or you can wait until ACAD gets the approvals (if they do) and builds sales on its pipeline. But by then you will need to pay a lot more for the stock. No problem with that approach, but then you shouldn't be hovering over ACAD and talking it down.
    There have to be better ways to earn a buck than betting against and talking down a stock that might help people who are suffering.
    Sep 11, 2014. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Looking To 'Yahoo Recommends' To Offset Display Declines [View article]
    I am long YHOO, but if Yahoo Recommends is a funnel to paid ads, the use of the word Recommends will create a lack of credibility. No difference when you find out that an investment recommendation was a paid message.
    Sep 11, 2014. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • L Brands August Sale Tracker: PINK Is Driving Back-To-School Sales [View article]
    There is a discrete segment of the market, but walk through a mall, through tourist areas and other crowd-driven places and you see people wearing large name brands. Especially many among teens and 20s, having the right name is essential.
    Sep 5, 2014. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment