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  • Have The Odds Improved For Tableau?  [View article]
    An analysis based on what Tableau will look like in 2020?
    What margin of error is there in that? +/- 90%?
    Feb 7, 2016. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sale-lease deal with corporate HQ on the table at J.C. Penney  [View news story]
    I think Starboard wants Macy's to do a lot more...sell and lease back a lot of the stores. Macy's is looking into turning some of their store space over to other companies...a portion of the Herald Square store, for example.
    All JCP is doing involves their headquarters building. And hopefully that will be all they will do. These activists aren't interested in the long term future of the companies they attack. They just want their victims to sell off the best assets so they can make a quick buck and leave the carcass behind.
    Feb 5, 2016. 03:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney coming in strong to appliances market  [View news story]
    I am long JCP, but wonder if this is the time for them to go into applicances.
    However, I understand that while they will have a wide line of brands and models, they will not have to carry a lot of inventory. And they do have an online presence with major appliances.
    Even if some shoppers would use JCP as a showroom for Amazon, there are still a lot of people who will prefer buying a major appliance with delivery and installation all in one. So I would think that this is another example of a way to bring customers into the stores and selling them something in addition to or other than the appliance. JCP management has been pretty good at bringing buyers into the stores.
    (No doubt some JCP short will now tell us that his wife won't shop there...probably saves JCP from having to deal with at least one drama queen princess.)
    Feb 3, 2016. 03:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Amazon plans hundreds of physical book stores  [View news story]
    Might also be an order online pickup in store distribution system.
    Feb 2, 2016. 04:33 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fund Manager: Facebook's Valuation Is 'Impossible To Sustain'  [View article]
    1. You can define your assessment of Facebook on what problem the product solves, but that does not mean that is the correct standard of measurement. It just means it is a way to defend a short that is not working.
    2. What problem does holding on to that short solve?
    3. There are many successful products that do not "solve a problem" if you define "problem" narrowly enough.
    4. FB management also has demonstrated that it adept at expanding the services that it provides and the formats in which it provides them. Perhaps that would not fit your definition of solving a problem, but that only means that "solving a problem" is the wrong test to be applying.
    5. It is absolutely accurate that this has a high P/E multiple, so any signs of impending weakness cannot be ignored...but those signs not only have not yet arisen, but also do not appear to be coming in the next six months.
    6. A GOOGLE SEARCH tells us: "Though recently founded in 2015, KPL Capital is backed by managing member Ovadia Levy who has been working in Private Equity Investments since 2011." It would have been helpful if you had mentioned his experience and that of KPL in the midst of the assorted quotes from Levy on which you want us to rely.
    Feb 1, 2016. 08:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Advantage Einhorn?  [View article]
    "Wall Street" as a group is not interested in doing what is right. There are many investors large and small who do, but much of performance is measured STRICTLY by $$ results. Shorts led by hedge funs can drive a good company out of business and their followers could care less. Rumor mongering is an accepted practice, investment grade ratings are assigned to tobacco companies. Sharks are revealed as insider traders and people throw money at them. Sadly, it is just all in a day's work for too many people and they make heroes out of people with ethical weaknesses.
    What makes AMZN a good investment is that Jeff Bezos is ruthless. But that does not make him unethical, just someone who you would not want to rely on.
    Jan 31, 2016. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Two Steps Forward And One Step Back  [View article]
    Tipranks.com has information on analysts and their ratings. It would be very useful if productions like CNBC used them and posted their success averages before the analyst started spouting off.
    Likewise an SA author using a quote from an analyst, but that might involve a use fee of some sort. All I know is that there are knowledgeable analysts and there are clowns, and the media needs to sort them out before asking their audience to pay any attention to them.
    Jan 31, 2016. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish On Fitbit, Bullish On The Fit Trade  [View article]
    Seth, regarding your swing trade, again new to this and not ready to actually put any money on the line, how long would you have been willing to hold it open? Into or through the earnings call? (Or would that no longer constitute what you have in mind as a swing trade?)
    Jan 31, 2016. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish On Fitbit, Bullish On The Fit Trade  [View article]
    If they disappoint, how sure can you be that you can get out at 14.90? The way these stocks trade, might it drop right past that price.
    On the other hand, I see volatile stocks jump in all directions pre-earnings so you might be out on the wrong side before it moved back in your direction.
    Being new to learning about trading as opposed to investing, I could well be missing something so would appreciate clarification.
    Jan 29, 2016. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Two Steps Forward And One Step Back  [View article]
    This is not aimed at the author, rather it is a general challenge.
    For all the analysts who are panning one aspect or another about Amazon, how do all of your calls for 2015 and 2016 to date compare with Amazon the company or AMZN the stock's performance? If not at least as good, then focus on your own below-Amazon performance, including your over-estimate of AMZN EPS.
    After all, anyone who knows anything about the company knows that you cannot forecast their earnings. To put it another way, the ANALYSTS missed Amazon's REALITY by that whopping 56ยข...but like everyone who likes to play expert, they blame their incorrect calls on the company.
    What we need is something like baseball. When the analyst makes his/her pronouncement it should be preceded by their performance statistics and we would know how much or how little attention we should pay to them.
    Jan 29, 2016. 09:07 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why J.C. Penney Has Been In The Dog House  [View article]
    Without knowing much about the mechanics, I have wondered if some of the short interest was paired with long interest in the JCP bonds; however, the weakening of the bonds without an offsetting increase in the stocks would suggest that either that is not the case or investors are selling the bonds but maintaining profitable positions on the stock shorts.
    Does this even make sense?
    Jan 23, 2016. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Athletic footwear sales tipped to be strong in January  [View news story]
    1. Adept traders can make money on these statistically weak surveys.
    2. Anyone close enough to the survey also can do well if able to buy ahead or have key clients buy ahead.
    3. Long term investors who believe in a company can buy on poor forecasts.
    4. Wouldn't it be nice if the analysts, instead of the stocks and the investors, were punished when channel checks turn out to be inaccurate.
    5. Hopefully the "strong" comments have something strong to share with us.
    Jan 22, 2016. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: A Deep Value Play On A Promising Turnaround  [View article]
    The shorts can deny the reality in this stock only for so long.
    As for the machines, eventually the triggers will start moving the stock up.
    Look at what it is happening at JCP, the results, the announced plans and the execution of those plans, the strength of their house brands, building partnerships that bring shoppers to the stores while also building their online business. I could go on, but it would be a waste of time when we still have short sellers who pass off their unfounded opinions as if they are fact instead of fiction.
    And every time someone writes a positive article, they come racing in with the same tired arguments.
    Jan 20, 2016. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear GoPro: Please Buy Back Some Stock  [View article]
    Most likely your response to a buyback, as with that of many other "investors" will be to sell the stock as fast as you possibly can. Why would any company in GPROs life cycle want to buy back more stock under those circumstances unless the management's job was threatened by big activist investors? At best another buyback announcement would be a temporary stop-gap.
    Jan 19, 2016. 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's Shares Soar With Green Light Capital Taking Equity Interest  [View article]
    Terry Lundgren is more interested in saving his job than he is in preserving the long term future of Macy's. That is why he is ready to cave in to activist short-term interests.
    His appearance on CNBC this morning is another example of how he plays the media better than any other retailer.
    Buy M short term for his willingness to sell off the future.
    Jan 19, 2016. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment