Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Upbeat's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Taser takes a dip [View news story]
    "Fierce competition"??
    Taser +5.2%; Fresno orders 300 body cameras
    Jun 30 2015, 13:56 ET | By: Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor
    Fresno, CA's police department has placed an order for 300 Taser (NASDAQ:TASR) Axon body cameras, along with a 5-year subscription to the company's video storage/file-access service. The order was placed and shipped in Q2.Dallas, Louisville, and London have also recently placed large Axon orders. Taser is up over 3x from a July 2014 low of $10.46, hit before the Ferguson unrest led interest in law enforcement body cameras to surge.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 3D Systems Stock Remains A Great Short To $20 [View article]
    1. Investors get wind of an emerging market/technology and run way ahead of the companies in that market.
    2. Shorts are skeptical and move in, also sometimes too early.
    3. Eventually, the reality sets in that the stock is overpriced.
    4. Those shorts who get in at the right time enjoy the ride down in the stock.
    5. Some times they can ride the stock do 0
    6. Some times they think they can ride the stock to 0, but are wrong.
    7. At some point it becomes senseless to risk a small gain further downside on the short when you also are risking a short squeeze jump or a takeover.

    I don't think a DDD takeover is in the works, and if so, not at a price that will be too far above the present price, whatever that might be at the time an offer emerges. But I do think that if this stock starts to move up, covering a short could get very expensive. If you rode a short down from $70 that won't matter, but if you are late to the party, for example shorting at $25, you really need to make a risk/reward calculation, and not depend on someone's prediction that the next leg is down to $15.
    And I still say that mathematics and charts aside, in the business of business (not investing and speculating) there will be purchasing decisions that are being put off until the decision makers see what HP might be up to. The last thing a decision maker wants is to invest heavily today when they are not sure if they might have to explain that decision next year should HP—or someone else—come out with a better 3D mousetrap.
    I got out of a small long position a long, long, time ago, am now neither long nor short DDD...with no intention of changing that lack of a position for now.
    Jun 27, 2015. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: It's Bases Loaded [View article]
    The key to the STOCK is the short interest. Those vultures don't give up easily, but management is making the progress that will ultimately drive them out.
    The latest short interest, 6/15, is only slightly down, but still very high.

    But here's another sign that the street is seeing the change even if the shorts aren't.
    Today's Zacks Bear of the Day is Dillards, and they finish their commentary with:
    "Investors seeking exposure to the industry could look at J. C. Penney, which currently holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)"

    Another good sign is that the shorts were unable to drive down the stock after Marvin Ellison's Oppenheimer presentation...which has been their standard practice.

    Perhaps the shorts' breaking point will be the back-to-school shopping and the Q3 results...we live in hope. But sooner or later, some big money is going to take a long interest in JCP.
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J. C. Penney Co's (JCP) CEO Marvin Ellison Presents at Oppenheimer Consumer Conference Transcript [View article]
    The shorts will not give up that easily. They fed off the Johnson/JCP carcass for too long. When you stop seeing the morning pre-market drop in JCP and when you stop seeing the steady drumbeat of negative or back-of-the-hand 'positive' articles on SA, then you will know they have moved on.
    Every time there is a positive event from JCP, the price drops almost immediately, and the articles follow a day later. I am hopeful that is changing, but the short interest is still huge, which suggests there is some big money that is still hopeful that Penney will go out of business and tens of thousands of people will lose their jobs.
    Some day a prominent name will buck the trend and take a significant long interest and the shorts will be on their way out...and I say good riddance to the vultures.
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marvin Ellison Will Get His Chance At J.C. Penney [View article]
    The bonds may well be a place to play, but the idea that the stock needs to wait for the bonds misses the current status of the stock.
    Just look at the huge short interest in the stock. What are they going to do when the already ongoing turnaround gets recognized by one or more market movers who can see what has happened in this stock over the past three years?
    Every time JCP has a positive event, the latest being the Piper Jaffrey presentation June 10, the shorts pushed against the stock on the same day, then the negative articles about JCP at a time, almost never, if ever, two on the same day. In the past, that was enough to stimulate the general market to avoid JCP, but that is no longer the case. The stock is holding on to a base of support.
    At least, in the past couple of days the articles have not panned the stock, just suggested it is not time to buy it, suggesting that the dedicated shorts are starting to realize that they cannot hold down the stock much longer with the old arguments that JCP management has already put to rest.
    Ron Johnson made a ton of money for the shorts, now it is time to find a different carcass for them to feed off, and they are beginning to sense that.
    Hmmm...who will favor us with an article tomorrow, or do we get the day off on Sunday?
    Jun 13, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take To Get J.C. Penney Back At $15 Or More? [View article]
    What will it take?
    1. Speculators not selling short any day that JCP management offers evidence of improving results. That has become the trading pattern.
    2. Writers not following up a couple of days later with negatively bent articles.
    This happens over and over and has become predictable...most likely there will be the usual Petty Penney articles coming in the next few days, someone might even suggest JCP is going to go bankrupt.
    3. Longs just holding steady, looking at the improving results and the improving chart. Check the 3-year chart and you will see that it is forming a great support level.
    4. Reality setting in.
    Did you listen to the June 10 JCP presentation at Piper Jaffrey?
    Did you listen to their most recent earnings conference call?
    And, with the stock at $8.20 or so, what would be wrong with it going to $15 from here?
    Jun 12, 2015. 03:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods Market to use 365 as value brand name [View news story]
    It's nice to see this referred to here as a value brand...too many analysts refer to it as "lower prices."
    My own take is that the UNIT pricing may actually be equal to or higher than in Whole Food stores...with smaller portions geared at singles or couples making the cash paid at the register smaller, but not cheaper. I may be wrong, but I haven't seen Whole Foods management referring to lower prices in the sense that the unit pricing will be lower...mainly they talk about aiming for millennials, convenience, accessibility, etc., none of which sounds like pricing for the same size 365 products will be lower in 365 than they are in WFM stores.
    Jun 11, 2015. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Small Stumble For Neurocrine Biosciences Changes Little [View article]
    I ran for cover this morning. Hopefully this will turn out to be a low point in their development programs, but for a company that is so dependent on drugs in development, one fail and a 14% drop was an opportunity to get out at a profit and avoid the risk of a much larger drop should this fail be a sign of other problems for NBI-77860. I don't think so, I think that one or more of their other programs will pan out, but the immediate risk is, to me, greater than the reward.

    The NBIX news release also included this statement:
    "The Company has also been informed by the FDA that the NBI-77860 clinical development program would be placed on partial clinical hold."

    Is this all of NBIX's NBI-77860 programs? Call me a chicken, but I didn't wait to find out.
    Jun 9, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme's AlgaVia Gains Traction As Bird Flu Leads To Possible Egg Shortage [View article]
    I decided this morning that it was time to revisit SZYM, so I came here. It took me about 20 minutes to wade through these wide-ranging (but certainly knowledgeable) discussions...
    …and not being in SZYM I am left staying out for the time being. I wish you longs, and the company, well, but sorting it out still leaves me thinking as I did, way back when I sold out my position, that this company still has more short-term challenges than it has short-term prospects. In an ideal world, its products would have a better chance of acceptance, but as in so many other fields, entrenched processes and source products are not going to give up without a fight just because they are environmentally hazardous and unhealthy.
    SZYM management needs to pick its battles and focus on markets that are not dominated by huge entrenched interests and investments in fixed plant and equipment that are not about to yield any ground to tiny SZYM. Replacing egg yolks in food may not be a practical strategy. Chasing huge market potentials that are fraught with huge obstacles from entrenched interests is a recipe for economic failure, particularly when you can't even ramp up production to meet those markets.
    Jun 9, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Is Making Music [View article]
    Why bother to try to reason with a short-minded Petty Penney who is running out of reasons to push down the stock? Do you actually expect these Penney shorts to say, "golly, I guess you are right."
    What will happen is that as the company--which is ignoring the shorts--continues its turnaround, the shorts will find some place else to go, and they will do it without saying, "we were wrong." Instead, they will close their positions, quietly.
    I would rather watch the change in short positions than listen to the Petty Penneys who regularly ply their negative outlook here. Anyone who looks at the three year chart in this stock can see that it is forming a great base, and one of these days/weeks/months, some big name buyer will take advantage of the opportunity...and we won't hear any more from the shorts.
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Michael Kors Is A Better Choice Over Coach [View article]
    I totally agree that Kors the company is better than Coach the company; likewise the stock, but that's because Coach the product has lost its cache.
    KORS the stock needs an event to turn it Kors the company slowing down their store and outlet expansion, or, more likely, an improvement in the outlook AFTER the next quarter's results.
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT is the word in retail [View news story]
    You meant REIT is the word in financial engineering. This is not about adding long term value to a company, it's about extracting value for short term gain. The people who make these suggestions figure they can extort them out of managements that are more interested in protecting their own overpaid positions than they are in the company and its employees...and, sadly, too often it works.
    The great retailers who started these companies understood that they would grow if they served the needs of their customers. Financial engineers who want to turn a great retailer into a REIT would be out of business in a day if they tried starting a retail business based on their basic principle of tearing it apart.
    Question: do they rent or own their own mansions?
    Jun 4, 2015. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT is the word in retail [View news story]
    Great. Activists want to extort reits out of retail businesses and CEOs who don't want to give up their overpaid jobs say, SURE!
    The vultures are always hovering for even the slightest sign of weakness and the just as greedy short term traders are ready to join in.
    Everybody wants to be a financial engineer...too bad they these hedge funds don't know how to add value to a retail business instead of how to squeeze value out via the real estate.
    Its one thing to own some stock in a company and participate in a short-term gain, but would anyone trust their own home, business or job in the hands on one of these activists?
    Jun 2, 2015. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • L Brands Looks Headed For More Downside [View article]
    If I follow this analysis, and I am not saying it is correct or not:
    1. it is based on your assumptions of performance of various factors that are difficult to predict with accuracy
    2. and your values are based to some extent on conclusions out to 2020 that are affected by your assumptions
    For example, why did you set a risk premium vs. Treasuries of 8% instead of 10% or 6%, or any other %?
    3. With this in mind, what would you say is the +- range in your conclusion?
    a. range on the downside from today's c. $86.50 price?
    b. range on the upside from today's c. $86.50 price?
    Thank you.
    Jun 2, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Pricing Lawsuit Could Be Big Trouble For Discounters [View article]
    Golly gee, I guess I should get out of my long position and into a short on JCP.
    And while I am at it I should invest in a retailer that is doing well and doesn't practice discounting off of manufacturer's list

    I was in a Saks outlet the other day..."Clearance Blowouts" everywhere, 40% off was the rule.
    Bloomie's outlet, I could pay 40% off a Kors short sleeve sport shirt...list $175. Or a tee shirt, 40% off the $72 list.
    No one seems to care that the vaunted Macy's management is probably going to be the last one to open separate discount outlets. Any other managment would be criticized for being asleep at the switch.
    If this suit prevailed and was inevitably extended to all retailers, JCP as a real discounter would benefit.

    Foolish me, I thought we might have seen the last of these negative "Petty Penney" articles. Whose turn is it next, and will it be a new theme or one of the tired, obsolete themes that still keep getting trotted out.
    May 31, 2015. 11:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment