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  • Reevaluation: Why Mattel Is Still Not A Buy, But There Is Hope [View article]
    It remains to be seen if a "new, improved" Barbie will be a net gain for Mattel. I say this because I doubt that the feminists want to identify with anything "Barbie." Meanwhile if you go too far you lose the princess segment of the market without, in my opinion, gaining enough to offset that loss.
    Look around and you see there is still a big market for the glamour, sex-appeal, etc.
    Autos, beer, entertainers...THAT is the market that also likes the old Barbie.
    (Mind you, I am not advocating for any particular Barbie, just passing along my opinion of who will buy Barbie and who will not.)
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week In Pharma: Xoma's Big Day And Dyax Vs. BioCryst Vs. Shire - Who Will Own HAE? [View article]
    WOW. Almost everyone asked for an analysis of XOMA...but instead of an analysis they got...‘stock collapsed, so I will discuss option 2.'
    Too bad you didn't discuss option 1 last week.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The battle to hold $9 continues for J.C. Penney [View news story]
    "Why on earth would Mandy Ginsberg, with her fine creds, join the Penney board?"
    Perhaps she sees something positive in the future of JCP? (I would give her the same credit you did and then take that as another positive sign for JCP.)
    JCP is trending in the eyes of investors (other than those blinded by their shorts) and sooner or later someone is going to take a big long position in this stock...just look at the 3-year chart.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CytRx prices equity offering at $2.75; shares off 25% premaket [View news story]
    I think you need to give them credit for having enough sense to know what they are doing pricing it this low.
    HOWEVER, on that basis, outsiders cannot trust what the insiders are doing. Go back to January 2014 and you will see that they did exactly this back then. Stock moved over 8 on good news, then they announced an offering at 6.50. I took my loss and left it behind back then because I decided I couldn't trust the insiders.
    By December 2014 it had hit a low of 2.05...then starts back up, gets some good news, high around 5.40 in April. On the way up, I was not tempted to buy...lack of trust, now affirmed.
    If you are in this stock, and you think they are just plain dumb, you may want to consider the possibility that they know exactly what they are doing...and may well do it again...but based on the 2014 experience it may not be until after the stock drops even further.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Popular retail names start off sluggish [View news story]
    I saw elsewhere a brief summary of what OTR had to say about UA, so I went to find out more, at Tipranks, which tracks and ranks analysts.
    1. Without the name of the analyst who wrote the report, I could not track him or her.
    2. In today's analyst report postings on Tipranks we have:
    Kelly Chen, Telsey Advisory Service, Reiterate Buy at $98
    Errin Murphy, Piper, reiterate Buy at $93
    Sam Poser Stern Agee reiterate 2 days ago at $95.
    3. No listing of a UA report from anyone at OTR.
    4. Of the hundreds of today's analyst reports, not one on any company from an analyst at OTR.

    This is the quote from Benzinga that I found via TD Ameritrade:
    The firm [OTR] said Under Armour's U.S.. apparel sales were "below plan for 5 of 6 sources...on delivery delays" and "poor weather." Analysts said U.S.. 2Q15 footwear sales more mixed and the brand has been "held up by excellent demand for Curry basketball shoes but offset by disappointing demand for sport slides, running shoes."
    "5 of 6 sources"? That's it? How many minutes of research did that take?
    Can we take this OTR report seriously? What is their track record?
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BMW: Headwinds In China Are Hurting This Luxury Automaker [View article]
    I guess the China situation boils down to whether it will continue for weeks, months or years...and only the political leaders in China will decide that.
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors - A Jackpot In Valuation Even If There's No More Growth [View article]
    To me, a fashion-based company is less about quarterly reports than it is about the fashionistas. When a brand goes out of fashion, the stock also goes out of fashion. The fear with MK the company and product line is that it might lose its cachet as the bag, etc., that women want to display. Always lurking with MK is, might the product line become the second coming of Coach...too many people with whom the fashionistas do not want to be identified were carrying around Coach bags, etc. So, predictably the fashionistas wanted out of Coach. We think of teenagers as being fickle, but they just grow up to become fashionistas.
    So when there are any signs of slowing in MK sales growth, the concern is that it is a sign of things to come...and it just might be.
    Mark, you make a good point that there is excellent value in the company's cash flow and balance sheet, but at this point in time, that will not matter if the over-riding concern is that the brand may be going out of favor. That the management is intent on expanding its distribution only adds to this concern.
    On that basis, one positive would be for a reversal of the sales trends...and you can throw in the profit margin as a related concern.
    The other positive is that management with outside support might decide to go private. The stock price, cash flow and balance sheet do make it a nice target for private equity buyers.
    I am uncertain myself as to how it will all play out, so before going long (I would not even consider going short) I wait from quarter to quarter to look for some resolution to the sales and brand recognition; and I watch for any signs of unusual accumulation in the stock or the options, with the understanding that the company itself already is buying back stock.
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales: No help from department stores [View news story]
    "U.S. retail sales were held back in June due in part to weak clothes buying trends."

    "The numbers would probably look even weaker if sportswear and shoes were backed out of the broad categories."

    I thought sportswear and shoes are clothes??
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Isis Pharmaceuticals: Another Regeneron (Or Even Better) In The Making? [View article]
    Thank you, Experienced.
    Sounds good.
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Continues To Remain Range Bound [View article]
    And the fact that the price has been stable doesn't mean anything to you...as in forming a base?
    The shorts who made money off of Ron Johnson/Bill Ackman's arrogance should put a different ticker name on this chart and see what they think of it. They are trapped in "JCP".
    Meanwhile, the street is gradually upgrading JCP, the companies that took share from JCP are giving it back...I guess all the positive signs can be ignored if you choose to focus on "THE DEBT" as your next fallback position, but it has to be obvious that the shorts are running out of negatives they used in the past to make money off of JCP, and are now left trying to discourage buyers.
    To the shorts, I say, "cover your shorts before you lose them."
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Continues To Remain Range Bound [View article]
    Another futile effort at tamping down the improvement in JCP the company and JCP the stock. The real read in this effort is that it is getting harder and harder to find a reason to short the stock, so now the effort is to keep investors from buying it.
    Look at the 3-year chart and you will see how this stock is building for a strong move up.
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Isis Pharmaceuticals: Another Regeneron (Or Even Better) In The Making? [View article]
    I am long ISIS, and I realize that biotechs are a roller-coaster investment, but still wonder why ISIS has been in a steady slide of late. Of particular concern is that this is despite mostly good news. Also, that ISIS is down during a stretch when the XBI is either up or flat, depending on how far back you go (short term, one month or three months).
    I would like to think that the dip is a buying opportunity...but I added already and am overweighted in ISIS...and the stock is down since then. Other than, "this is just another move down to be followed by a move up", are there any other theories?
    Thank you.
    Jul 8, 2015. 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taser takes a dip [View news story]
    "Fierce competition"??
    Taser +5.2%; Fresno orders 300 body cameras
    Jun 30 2015, 13:56 ET | By: Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor
    Fresno, CA's police department has placed an order for 300 Taser (NASDAQ:TASR) Axon body cameras, along with a 5-year subscription to the company's Evidence.com video storage/file-access service. The order was placed and shipped in Q2.Dallas, Louisville, and London have also recently placed large Axon orders. Taser is up over 3x from a July 2014 low of $10.46, hit before the Ferguson unrest led interest in law enforcement body cameras to surge.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 3D Systems Stock Remains A Great Short To $20 [View article]
    1. Investors get wind of an emerging market/technology and run way ahead of the companies in that market.
    2. Shorts are skeptical and move in, also sometimes too early.
    3. Eventually, the reality sets in that the stock is overpriced.
    4. Those shorts who get in at the right time enjoy the ride down in the stock.
    5. Some times they can ride the stock do 0
    6. Some times they think they can ride the stock to 0, but are wrong.
    7. At some point it becomes senseless to risk a small gain further downside on the short when you also are risking a short squeeze jump or a takeover.

    I don't think a DDD takeover is in the works, and if so, not at a price that will be too far above the present price, whatever that might be at the time an offer emerges. But I do think that if this stock starts to move up, covering a short could get very expensive. If you rode a short down from $70 that won't matter, but if you are late to the party, for example shorting at $25, you really need to make a risk/reward calculation, and not depend on someone's prediction that the next leg is down to $15.
    And I still say that mathematics and charts aside, in the business of business (not investing and speculating) there will be purchasing decisions that are being put off until the decision makers see what HP might be up to. The last thing a decision maker wants is to invest heavily today when they are not sure if they might have to explain that decision next year should HP—or someone else—come out with a better 3D mousetrap.
    I got out of a small long position a long, long, time ago, am now neither long nor short DDD...with no intention of changing that lack of a position for now.
    Jun 27, 2015. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: It's Bases Loaded [View article]
    The key to the STOCK is the short interest. Those vultures don't give up easily, but management is making the progress that will ultimately drive them out.
    The latest short interest, 6/15, is only slightly down, but still very high.

    But here's another sign that the street is seeing the change even if the shorts aren't.
    Today's Zacks Bear of the Day is Dillards, and they finish their commentary with:
    "Investors seeking exposure to the industry could look at J. C. Penney, which currently holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)"

    Another good sign is that the shorts were unable to drive down the stock after Marvin Ellison's Oppenheimer presentation...which has been their standard practice.

    Perhaps the shorts' breaking point will be the back-to-school shopping and the Q3 results...we live in hope. But sooner or later, some big money is going to take a long interest in JCP.
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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