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  • Analysis Of Apple's Gross Margin Through The Past 4 iPhone Product Cycles [View article]
    Why all the emphasis on gross margin?
    For example, to the extent that demand is elastic, if AAPL were to trim selling prices, thereby reducing gross margin, they might actually increase their NET profit ...which is a much more important gauge.
    Mind you, I am not saying that they will, or that it necessarily would result in a better net profit...just that if you focus on gross margin you are dismissing everything below the Gross Profit line and a smart management's ability to lower its GPM if it will improve their NPM.
    Other than because it is easy to figure and analyze (there not being many factors), Gross Profit Margin is a very incomplete statistic and a useful gauge only to the extent that it falls short of a company management's target.
    Aug 19 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods Market Investors Need To Relax, But Don't Overpay [View article]
    1. This may be a rehash to some readers, but not to all.
    2. Perhaps because it was better organized it put WFM (and other stocks) into a better prospective for me.
    3. Comps are comparisons, for example between the 2nd quarter 2014 and the 2nd quarter 2013.
    Aug 19 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Unlikely To Stay At This Level For Much Longer [View article]
    enick, I may be wrong, but my instinct tells me that you did not hear about as much about CVS relative to RAD because there is a larger short interest in RAD (not huge, but larger) and RAD seems to be more of a battleground stock. Also, as a company, RAD is in more of a state of flux than CVS.
    Also, according to TD Ameritrade, the Beta on RAD is 1.6 and on CVS .9, another sign that there is more positive/negative commentary.
    That doesn't make it totally rational, but the market isn't always totally rational.
    Aug 18 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Negative Traffic Trends May Prevent Revenues From Topping $14 Billion [View article]
    With all the standards of measure that can be applied to any stock, there always will be some negatives to which the naysayers can point. For example, going into the latest earnings report a lot was said about the need for positive cash flow, but after the earnings report the naysayers have moved on to different standards of measure without even acknowledging that JCP exceeded the previous standards of measure.
    If the latest quarterly report had an M instead of a JCP in front of it, analysts and investors would be tripping over themselves to raise targets and buy the stock and any missed expectations would be dismissed as if they were insignificant.
    JCP still has a way to go, but the "experts" are even further behind the curve on this stock. And, like 'experts being experts,' instead of conceding that they missed the boat on the most recent quarterly results, they just move on to the next quarter and divert attention to how the stock, in this case JCP, will miss their new standards of measure.
    Aug 18 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: What Will Home Depot's Shares Do Post Earnings? [View article]
    I thought that whisper numbers were those that analysts obtained or determined based on discussions with management and the analysts' interpretation of how overly conservative or optimistic were management's announced expectations in the coming quarter and in the past.
    Aug 18 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RiteAid: Ready To Soar [View article]
    I have tried a couple of long term options with some success, but probably still net losses. Your input clarifies the process for me.
    However, while the percentage swings are wider in options, correct me if I am wrong, but aren't the dollar swings relatively small?
    Thank you.
    Aug 18 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Posted Strong Earnings But Fell On Potential Risks [View article]
    JCP fell when the shorts moved back in and the analysts the next morning--the same analysts who were wrong this quarter--found a new round of reasons to maintain their ratings on JCP.
    This is nothing new. It has happened with many stocks. It takes awhile before the shorts find better pickings and the analysts realize that they don't look all that smart holding to an outdated rating after the market has moved ahead of them. It's only human nature.
    Check the conference call and decide for yourself if this management knows more about running a retail business than the financial analysts who live quarter to quarter. One analyst the next morning on CNBC actually thought it was a bad thing for JCP to be increasing its advertising going into the back-to-school and holiday seasons. The average stock clerk knows that without advertising the stock will sit collecting dust.
    JCP is taking back market share, so before you see some analysts raise their rating or target on JCP you will probably see them change their thinking on JCP through the back door mechanism of lowering estimates on JCP's competitors. They already are picking out their targets...including Target.
    Aug 16 11:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Company Inc. Heads In The Right Direction [View article]
    Apparently they did not pay attention to the conference call where their concerns were addressed. Despite all the positives, they found a way to justify their negative or neutral positions before going into the report. "Intellectual narcissim."
    Put an M on this report instead of a JCP and they would be tripping over themselves to raise their targets. Imagine, JCP had the nerve not to anoint them experts who knew more about running a company than the new management. Reminds me of Ackman thinking he knew how to run JCP.
    It will be interesting to see who has the courage to come forward first to raise their rating and/or their target price.
    Aug 15 02:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: You Hate It At $5, But You Love It At $10? [View article]
    I fully agree with a lot you say about the psychology; however, I don't think the shorts are through yet...they made too much on JCP in the past couple of years to give up easily and go find another victim.
    And the analysts don't sound as if they are ready to step forward...at least none I've seen so far. It is going to take one or two big name firms or analysts to shake the fear out of the rest. Then it will become OK to comment positively on JCP, and eventually it will become fashionable, as you put it to "shout from the rooftops."
    This may be overly optimistic, but I think that if and when JCP becomes an investment darling, there will still be room for a further run-up, only because JCP was beat down so hard that it is going to take longer than usual for investors who were burned to now believe in the reality of the company's turnaround.
    Aug 15 11:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: J.C. Penney's Earnings - Enthusiasm May Wane Quickly As Problems Persist [View article]
    I am long JCP and staying long...will be adding to my initial holding sooner rather than later.
    However:
    1. listening to analysts thus far, they are holding to their current take on JCP...$10 stock, debt problems, etc.
    2. there are so many factors by which you can measure a company and a stock that you can always find pros or cons to justify your position.
    Example: the analysts who move from cash flow problems to "they will be spending more in the coming quarter." They ignore that it is on advertising, and while financial analysts may not understand the concept, in retail, ad spending is essential. If JCP did not increase its ad spend in the next few months they would be making a huge mistake and would lose the momentum they have gained.
    So the stock is down this morning to around the level it was before a little move up in the last half hour or so, which I attribute to shorts who were properly concerned that JCP might surprise on the upside.
    But by now they are back in.
    Another concern from the analysts that we are already getting is that the company now will be coming up against tougher comps, and we need to concede there is some reality in that.
    So it is going to still be a slow process before the sentiment on the part of the market establishment (analysts and the like) will come around to the positive story in JCP. My thinking is that it will take some analyst from a key firm to step forward, after which it will become safe and eventually fashionable to actually write or talk on TV about the turnaround of JCP.
    There was nothing in the conference call that should have disappointed, so the analysts and the shorts, are left moving to weaker and weaker fall back positions. Which leads to this hope: I am not enough of a chartist to tell, but it seems that every time the shorts open a new position it is at a higher price than before and every time they close, it is at a higher price. Maybe, just maybe, if the sell/buy back spread narrows, it will reach the point where they will find that JCP is no longer the gift that keeps on giving and will move on to trying to destroy another company and tens of thousands of other jobs in order to pocket a few bucks for themselves.
    One thing you can be sure of: JCP for a couple of years was a shining star for the shorts, so they are not going to give up easily.
    Aug 15 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why J.C. Penney Should Continue Improving [View article]
    I am sitting here listening to the 'experts' on CNBC explain away this performance.
    "It's one time", "they don't pay a dividend or buy back stock", etc., etc.
    It will take a couple of years before any of them say out loud "I was wrong, but I needed to justify my 'TV expert' status."
    So the 'experts' and the shorts are at it again, trying to push back against JCP, but they can't stop the company and its turnaround story. When they finally lose their shirt and their shorts they can buy new ones at a reasonable price at J C Penney.
    Just before the close today the stock jumped up 50¢ or so, which I am figuring was short covering, but many of those shorts will come back.
    So I will buy more but will wait for the shorts to drive it down in a few days if not sooner. Then we will see a rise when the market begins to talk up JCP as having back-to-school positive prospects.
    Aug 14 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The J.C. Penney Whisper Number Indicate Investor Confidence? [View article]
    Talk about an unreliable survey. Anyone and everyone can offer their whisper number, and then the stock moves in the opposite direction.
    Might it be that the market isn't paying attention to your whisper number in the first place?
    Aug 14 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Could Be About To Waste Billions Of Your Dollars [View article]
    With a few exceptions, the ‘give the money to me,’ comments come from people who plan on getting out of the stock. That includes me, but at least I don't hide behind all sorts of justifications that have little or no relevance to the ongoing operations of a company.
    ‘I want it and I want it now’ is no way to expect Yahoo to operate for its own good or for the good of its long-term investors.
    Aug 14 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    Zeypo, you sound like me a few years ago.
    1. there is salvation to the TKMR stock price at its present level because they do have a decent pipeline, though the crowd may push it down further.
    I raised the question about whether the Ebola factor had pushed the price too high, and as I heard "Ebola" everywhere and couldn't see how much of a financial benefit there was to TKMR, I figured it was time to get out. So I sold at $23+ and didn't mind seeing it go to $25 before it crashed.
    (This has nothing to do with my hopes that TKMR or some other source will find a cure for Ebola, which is why I was critical of the FDA for dragging its feet to help people afflicted in Africa until after treatment was rushed into place for a couple of Americans.)
    2. you need to consider what or who prompted you to sell when you did and buy when you did. I used to be overly influenced by articles and comments, but gradually developed an ability to sort out the wheat from the chaff. In particular, the more facts I have about a company, the less likely I am to be swayed by input that is nothing more than either delusional or an attempt to influence the price of a stock regardless of the facts and the more likely I am to consider input from objective people who know what they are talking about.
    Aug 14 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Neither Thriving Or Dying [View article]
    I agree that it is useful to consider the opposing input, but, again, it is always a case of trying to determine how much input for or against is just natural bias toward a short or long position. Some articles and comments are clearly either delusional or intended to influence without regard to the facts.
    Yours, on the other hand, are more objective, and worth following.
    Aug 14 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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