Insiders Not Abandoning Ship At J.C. Penney [View article]
Milkweed, I do agree that the new JCP strategy was a good one, and that abandoning the old JCP model without a transition was a huge mistake. But perhaps Ackman was responsible for the rush to make a complete change so fast. Which raises the question, has he lost faith in the concept that he hired Ron Johnson to introduce? Further, what are the chances that JCP will continue with the emphasis on the new strategy and not just instantly go back to coupons galore and not much more?
I'm not so sure that WMT is not some competition for WFM. Speaking for myself, I don't have a WFM near me, but on the occasions when I have had a chance to shop there I have been put off by the excessive prices...not justifiably high, but excessive. So if there are alternatives, there are people who will be daring enough to try WMT, and just might decide that saving money at WMT is not such a negative experience. *** SnoSurfer, you referred to a TFM debacle...as I do shop there, can you fill me in on that. Thanks.
Glu Mobile: Poised For Mediocrity In Q1 [View article]
I suppose I am cynical because I lost money listening to people, including management, talking about the rosy future for GLUU. So, the comments here certainly are enticing, but if management now is not as positive about the near term I am not ready to toss that away as low-balling or trying to set up short-sellers. If this were another company I would feel differently about anticipating an upturn, but with this company my opinion is that if you are in GLUU, get out...until you see some actual results instead of predictions that the always just-around-the-corner future will be better.
IDC Data Are More Bullish For Microsoft Than The Market Seems To Realize [View article]
My tech needs are simpler, so I am content with my Macs out of a home office with no on-the-road needs. However, Michael—and commenters—I thank you for your insights into tablets and where the market is headed. Still, as an investment, I am looking at a past-five-year chart with an MSFT high of $32.95 in mid-March 2012; it closed this Friday at $28.79. I am not going to ask you to give me the price I can expect to see MSFT at in, let's say, two years—but in your opinion would it be more or less than $32.95? Or, if you want to go out on a longer limb, when would you expect it to surpass $32.95?
Buy Stocks On Sale Using This Strategy [View article]
I may have missed in, but in all the strategizing I did not see a direct response to the concerns that a stock would get put to me at $180 while it is on its way to $110. Or, if we want to deal in larger markets, getting put the S&P as the market slipped into the depths not that long ago. All the fine tuning in the world still leaves you risking dollars to make dimes.
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
Isaac, here are some possibilities: Because they still think it is a growth company. Because they consider it a turnaround situation Because they think earnings will be improving enough to reduce the P/E from 14. Because they expect sheepskin costs to come down Because they are optimists by nature Etc. Etc. I am not long on DECK, just providing some reasons, and I am sure there are more.
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
Louis, good, valid point about the search engine popularity of UGGs. I will mark that on the positive side for investing in DECK. And although I agree we shouldn't buy a stock based on a buyout or takeover rumor, it does provide a short-term floor (until the rumor gets stale, that is, which is when I sell, only to have the buyout take place a week later...LOL)
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
Louis, I agree, maybe, maybe not regarding the glamour coming out of the product. But, playing with the math is useless if the product is falling out of favor...you may think what has come out of the stock is unjustifiable, but that drop is based on essentially a short term trend. Watch what happens if it becomes a long term trend. The streets are littered with trendy fashions that became unfashionable. As I said, I don't know enough about Uggs and its future fashion status, so I wonder if anyone else can provide meaningful input on that.
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
More than anything else, DECK will rise or fall on the popularity of Uggs. I could be wrong, but my own impression is that a lot of the glamour has come out of the product. If that is the case, it is only a matter of time before the followers notice that the fashion leaders have moved on, whether it be at the international or the Junior High School level. Again, I don't pretend to know enough about the standing of Uggs in the fashion community, but if they are going out of fashion, their distinctive appearance becomes a negative, especially when so many women have bought them in the past despite describing them as being ugly.
The Bearish Case For American Eagle Outfitters: An Overvalued Dividend Stock [View article]
Thanks for a very fair presentation. As a holder of AEO you have alerted me to the need to look into the safety of the dividend, but at least it appears as if you were not trying to just drive down the price of the stock.
jhesr, you are correct when you say, "Also, Dell's legacy PC business is not worthless. The press goes on and on and on about the death of the PC, as if PCs are completely worthless. They are not worthless and I am positive that people will still be using PCs for getting work done a decade from now." That being the case, can you blame Michael Dell for wanting to escape from that crowd of "experts." Look at the charts, look at what the market thought the company was worth before the buyout was announced. Now we are told it is worth more than $20 when the market was telling us it was worth half that. From MD's point of view, what would you have done?
Evaluating David Einhorn's Proposal To Apple [View article]
TedNewbie, here's a better idea. Let's split the financial markets into separate parts: 1. for long term investors 2. for short term traders and speculators Then the investors who buy into Apple because it is a great company would not have to listen to the traders who are looking to make a buck on anything and everything with no regard for the future of the company, the future of its employees, the future of its suppliers or, indeed, the future of America. IT'S ALL ONE BIG TRADING OPPORTUNITY!!!!!!
Evaluating David Einhorn's Proposal To Apple [View article]
I just hope Apple will continue to ignore the demands of people who are interested in the stock, not the company. C'mon people. Einhorn is thinking ONLY about himself. The proposal to which he objects would allow for a preferred stock issue subject to a shareholder vote. He doesn't want something like that, which would have to be agreed to by the majority. He wants what he wants and he wants it now. He went to Apple, made his demand and they said no. People like Cramer then called the Apple management arrogant when it was Einhorn who was arrogant, along with Cramer himself and half the other analysts who blow like reeds in the wind but think of themselves as experts. No one but Apple management knows why Apple is hoarding that cash...Einhorn's theory that they suffer from a depression mentality is laughable, but he had to say something other than "a company that has figured out how to be a cash cow may have a plan for it and know better what to do with that cash than I do." Einhorn was smart enough to acknowledge that Apple is a well run company. Does he really think that as a going BUSINESS--not as a stock to be traded--that THEY are better off dispensing assets to stockholders when they may have something better in mind. As a stock, AAPL was much better before the traders decided they could play the usual up-down-up-down games they play with other stocks. It was a nice place for people who want to invest in a company rather than day-trade the stock. More power to Apple management for continuing to go their own way. Hopefully the short term traders will get the message and go someplace else where they can pressure managements to take actions that may hurt their companies in the long run but satisfy Wall Streeters who could care less about the future of a company as a going concern.
What a surprise, people who own the stock want more money. And yet, for all the people who now say the company is worth a lot more, no one wanted it for more than $11 until the buyout started to look serious. Go back and read the expert analyses a few months ago and you will see the vast majority wanted no part of Dell as a going concern or a stock. Don't blame Michael Dell for believing more in his company that the market did. He also probably got tired of being judged by people who knew a lot less about his business than he did and saw the opportunity to get away from the yoke of short-term traders. Most of us in his position would do the same thing. I do think the pot will be sweetened before it comes to a vote. For that reason, I bought some 14 Call options Friday. I even made a little money on the stock when it was far enough below $13.65 Friday, then decided to go the option route instead just on the remote chance that the deal fell through and the stock went back to what the market really thought it was worth before the buyout deal that so many people now think isn't good enough.
Insiders Not Abandoning Ship At J.C. Penney [View article]
Insiders Not Abandoning Ship At J.C. Penney [View article]
Which raises the question, has he lost faith in the concept that he hired Ron Johnson to introduce? Further, what are the chances that JCP will continue with the emphasis on the new strategy and not just instantly go back to coupons galore and not much more?
Whole Foods: The Short Thesis [View article]
***
SnoSurfer, you referred to a TFM debacle...as I do shop there, can you fill me in on that. Thanks.
Glu Mobile: Poised For Mediocrity In Q1 [View article]
So, the comments here certainly are enticing, but if management now is not as positive about the near term I am not ready to toss that away as low-balling or trying to set up short-sellers.
If this were another company I would feel differently about anticipating an upturn, but with this company my opinion is that if you are in GLUU, get out...until you see some actual results instead of predictions that the always just-around-the-corner future will be better.
IDC Data Are More Bullish For Microsoft Than The Market Seems To Realize [View article]
Still, as an investment, I am looking at a past-five-year chart with an MSFT high of $32.95 in mid-March 2012; it closed this Friday at $28.79. I am not going to ask you to give me the price I can expect to see MSFT at in, let's say, two years—but in your opinion would it be more or less than $32.95?
Or, if you want to go out on a longer limb, when would you expect it to surpass $32.95?
Buy Stocks On Sale Using This Strategy [View article]
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
Because they still think it is a growth company.
Because they consider it a turnaround situation
Because they think earnings will be improving enough to reduce the P/E from 14.
Because they expect sheepskin costs to come down
Because they are optimists by nature
Etc.
Etc.
I am not long on DECK, just providing some reasons, and I am sure there are more.
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
As I said, I don't know enough about Uggs and its future fashion status, so I wonder if anyone else can provide meaningful input on that.
Deckers: Not Good Enough Means Short Case Returns [View article]
The Bearish Case For American Eagle Outfitters: An Overvalued Dividend Stock [View article]
Dell: The Art Of The Steal [View article]
That being the case, can you blame Michael Dell for wanting to escape from that crowd of "experts." Look at the charts, look at what the market thought the company was worth before the buyout was announced. Now we are told it is worth more than $20 when the market was telling us it was worth half that.
From MD's point of view, what would you have done?
Evaluating David Einhorn's Proposal To Apple [View article]
1. for long term investors
2. for short term traders and speculators
Then the investors who buy into Apple because it is a great company would not have to listen to the traders who are looking to make a buck on anything and everything with no regard for the future of the company, the future of its employees, the future of its suppliers or, indeed, the future of America.
IT'S ALL ONE BIG TRADING OPPORTUNITY!!!!!!
Evaluating David Einhorn's Proposal To Apple [View article]
The proposal to which he objects would allow for a preferred stock issue subject to a shareholder vote. He doesn't want something like that, which would have to be agreed to by the majority. He wants what he wants and he wants it now.
He went to Apple, made his demand and they said no. People like Cramer then called the Apple management arrogant when it was Einhorn who was arrogant, along with Cramer himself and half the other analysts who blow like reeds in the wind but think of themselves as experts.
No one but Apple management knows why Apple is hoarding that cash...Einhorn's theory that they suffer from a depression mentality is laughable, but he had to say something other than "a company that has figured out how to be a cash cow may have a plan for it and know better what to do with that cash than I do."
Einhorn was smart enough to acknowledge that Apple is a well run company. Does he really think that as a going BUSINESS--not as a stock to be traded--that THEY are better off dispensing assets to stockholders when they may have something better in mind.
As a stock, AAPL was much better before the traders decided they could play the usual up-down-up-down games they play with other stocks. It was a nice place for people who want to invest in a company rather than day-trade the stock. More power to Apple management for continuing to go their own way. Hopefully the short term traders will get the message and go someplace else where they can pressure managements to take actions that may hurt their companies in the long run but satisfy Wall Streeters who could care less about the future of a company as a going concern.
Dell: The Art Of The Steal [View article]
And yet, for all the people who now say the company is worth a lot more, no one wanted it for more than $11 until the buyout started to look serious.
Go back and read the expert analyses a few months ago and you will see the vast majority wanted no part of Dell as a going concern or a stock. Don't blame Michael Dell for believing more in his company that the market did. He also probably got tired of being judged by people who knew a lot less about his business than he did and saw the opportunity to get away from the yoke of short-term traders. Most of us in his position would do the same thing.
I do think the pot will be sweetened before it comes to a vote. For that reason, I bought some 14 Call options Friday. I even made a little money on the stock when it was far enough below $13.65 Friday, then decided to go the option route instead just on the remote chance that the deal fell through and the stock went back to what the market really thought it was worth before the buyout deal that so many people now think isn't good enough.