Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Upbeat's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How Michael Kors Can Reward Its Suffering Shareholders: Pay A Dividend [View article]
    Sure, it would be nice if KORS paid a dividend, but its rises and falls have nothing to do with whether or not it pays a dividend.
    At its current $66+ price, a 2% dividend would be $1.32 over the course of a year.
    That is nothing compared to the benefit stockholders can get out of the performance of the company and the stock price.
    Seeing as you want a dividend, just buy COH. Problem solved?
    Or would that be buying a bigger problem?
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of Neurocrine's Recent Insider Selling [View article]
    1. was there any buying? If these are pursuant to stock options might there also have been some exercising to add to holdings?
    2. I don't think one needs to be "truly paranoid" to think that "the confluence of the officer sales" might NOT be just happenstance
    3. As a corporate exec, I would be planning more than a few months out and would have some inkling of when there might be good or bad news that might affect a stock and when I should buy or sell. While it might not work out as planned, at least I would have some better sense of the odds than would a non-insider.
    I wondered about that price holding up so well into and out of the stock offering, finally decided to buy in. So now I am long...but might not be for much longer if there are any more indications that management is playing the market.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heavy Institutional Buying Is Occurring In MEI Pharma, Topline Data Due In Mid-March [View article]
    Not particularly interested in MEIP...just came here after seeing the huge drop today. Are the analysts who were positive on this stock connected to the previous equity offerings? More than once I have seen instances where those positive reports were influenced by their own self-interests. (I could go back and see for myself, but this is a question that should be answered by those who relied on the analysts.)
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target Buyers Suffer From Premature Jocularity [View article]
    People root for Target and against Wal-Mart. Even though Big Money Wall St. may not care, that is still a headwind WMT needs to overcome with many investors as well as with the media.
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem: Top-Line Results Of Phase 2 ALS Trial Are Compelling [View article]
    There are two conflicting dynamics here.
    1. the company is doing important work
    2. they raise expectations to levels that cannot be reached.
    Looking at the latter, they put out enough information to have the public run ahead with it. Then when expectations predictably cannot be met, the stock collapses back to more realistic levels.
    "Overhypes" might be the wrong description, because a case can be made that management consists of good people doing what comes naturally, getting excited about the hope that they have a treatment that will help some if not all patients and that investors likewise are rooting, hoping, and putting their money on the line.
    Then AF comes in and sticks his knife in the back of the company and the investors. When a management and investors get overenthusiastic it is relatively easy for him to select his victims and make money on the short side.
    However, coming back to our first dynamic, this company is doing good work. So we live with the reality that they leave themselves (and us) open to people like AF. The only way to respond, however, is to use his machinations as opportunities not only to invest at an opportunistic price, but to support the company and its efforts, and declare that vultures like AF are not the stuff of which most investors are made. Most likely the stock will go up, and he will try to drive it back down.
    My own feeling is that unhappy people like AF thrive on sharing their misery with others, and that the healthier approach is to smile, be thankful we are not him and that we do not have to live with him.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:09 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Pfenex Is A Strong Buy [View article]
    Still thinking about the entry point...nothing here says to me it is now, but it won't be the first time I missed an uptick while waiting for a downtick.
    Mar 4, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Won't Necessarily Profit Home Depot [View article]
    1. The recent blip...or at least the past few days if that is what you are referring more due to Lumber Liquidators problems. Those are not going to go away quickly and will be a short-term factor in better than expected HD results for at least six months.
    2. Changes in home sales do affect stores like HD. If you are short-term trading, your charts might show a correlation, but "investors" should be thinking longer term. If there is going to be a short-term buying opportunity, it will come from a general market decline, if that even takes place, in the days ahead. After that, HD will just keep moving away from buyers.
    3. You are correct that there is more to HD's stock rise than home improvements, but they are a factor. To suggest that home sales don't affect home improvement sales defies reality.
    Mar 3, 2015. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Pfenex Is A Strong Buy [View article]
    Thank you for this article, which fairly presents the positive picture for PFNX.
    Are you of the opinion that the $50 cash on hand and the $50 million to come are not already priced into the stock?
    I ask because I intend to buy into PFNX. Sadly, I was researching biosimilars a month ago and missed PFNX at that time. (Ugh.) However, now I wonder about what would be a good entry point...with the good news now well known, what comes next for the stock (not the company, whose future looks good).
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals Raises Cash - An Inside Look At The Deal [View article]
    SA has its drawbacks when an article becomes a long/short emotion-driven battleground, but an article and rational comments like we have here is refreshing, and valuable. I came here figuring how can a warrant at $10.86 be bad, and just learned how little I knew about warrants.
    Thanks one and all.
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Own Cipher Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Thanks, Jason.
    Like a field goal kicker who misses to the right, then overcompensates and goes wide left on his next try, having been burned a couple of times on surprise stock offerings of other pharmas/biotechs, I have become overly skittish about possible offerings.
    So when there is good news AND it looks like a company is going to run out of cash within a year or so it's a warning to me that they might not wait and instead strike while the market is hot.
    I agree..."you never know"...but at least it does not look to be a factor here.
    Thank you.
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Immunotherapies Have Made DelMar's Lead Drug A Necessity In Brain Cancer [View article]
    After reading a positive Zacks Research article on DPMI by Grant Zeng I came over here, where I see mention of that Val-083 already is being sold and has been around for decades, and yet there are two comments about DPMI having orphan drug status.
    So I just went back and see no reference to orphan drug status in Zeng's article.
    1. does DPMI enjoy orphan drug status for Val-083 targeting GBM?
    2. how can that be if someone else is already selling it for that indication?
    Thank you.
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Own Cipher Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Jason, what will the pipeline costs do to cash flow? More to the point, might there be a stock offering in the future for this or some other the cause for the drop today? There seems to be a pattern with these companies to follow up a string of deals and good news with a stock offering; thus the question.
    Thank you.
    Feb 27, 2015. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuvo Research Still Worth The Risk [View article]
    Between this and the Feb 10 article, it strikes me that Nuvo and its stockholders would do better if someone bought Nuvo rather than Nuvo buying someone. It is easy to SAY Nuvo can just go out and buy a business...and that it will add to profits...but what is 55 mill going to buy? (Perhaps the placebo that did as well as WF10 did in the last German test and would be a lot cheaper to manufacture...pun intended.)
    Only 4% owned by management and Board members means they could not stand in the way of a buyout attempt should they choose to resist. I don't usually think this way, but in this case I still hold Nuvo, but my main hope is that someone comes in and buys Nuvo before they burn through the cash or on a deal to save their jobs.
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: No Goodwill Impairment Despite Weak Results [View article]
    I am not short DDD, in fact I was continuing buying in had the news been good. (Glutton for punishment, I have lost on this stock before.)
    Anyway, I am surprised it is up. While management did try to present as positive a picture as they could, within the positive guidance they also gave us enough details that suggest they may well miss their goals.
    So...I will reluctantly continue to root for DDD and against the shorts, but I do not see a good year ahead for DDD and expect that some time before mid year they will revise down.
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Price Diverges From Earnings: Quarterly Comparisons Of Michael Kors And Coach [View article]
    1. Michael Kors, the company, improved.
    2. The analysts expected more from the company than they did from themselves (they were wrong in their estimates).
    3. Instead of the value of their analyses going down, the price of KORS stock went down.
    4. And yet, the company is better today than it was before.
    5. Higher sales and earnings = a lower stock price ???
    At least we now have to give us some sense of which analysts are better than others...and to compare their performance with that of the companies whose stocks go down because the analysts were wrong.
    Feb 24, 2015. 08:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment