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  • So, Buy Wal-Mart Or J.C. Penney? [View article]
    Let's see...10 lines referring to Walmart, c. 35 to JCP. So we use Walmart as the Trojan horse for another effort to figure out how to pan JCP...including the never-ending reminder that JCP ONCE was being bandied about by the shorts as a bankruptcy candidate.
    As best I can tell, the only thing Walmart has going for it in this article is the much is that worth if the stock price falls? (There actually may be more going for WMT, but this article's purpose appears to be to suggest JCP is a financing risk...very old news.)
    It is all predictable...good news from JCP...reality...followed by a rise in the price, then the shorts come back with the negative articles, one a day, and they push the stock back down on light trading.
    But if you look at all the trends, JCP is on the upswing. Performance, charts, everything. This also includes the relative balance of the articles about JCP...the shorts are running out of stuff to say about JCP going forward. And the analysts are coming around as well.
    Whose turn is it tomorrow to give us the backhanded compliment or outright negative article about JCP? And what other old, no-longer-relevant argument will it try?
    Aug 19, 2015. 01:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment firms weigh in on J.C. Penney post-earnings [View news story]
    The shorts do it every time...good news, they let the price drift up...then come the negative articles...then on light trading they push the stock down. But reality in the form of the company's performance is now working against them instead of for them.
    Sooner or later, some whale is going to buy into the stock...
    Aug 19, 2015. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment firms weigh in on J.C. Penney post-earnings [View news story]
    dwc, where do you see those downgrades YESTERDAY? The only changes YESTERDAY were upgrades from two others. Check will see the others had reiterated from months ago...digging in their heels in quicksand.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment firms weigh in on J.C. Penney post-earnings [View news story]
    If you listened to the conference call, it is no surprise that Deutcshe stayed at hold.
    The analyst seemed to be searching for a negative in order to retain his opinion. Fine, he will eventually need to explain why he didn't see the turn when it was obvious.
    Elderman, how long has Piper been saying "JCP is the best". I don't see any such reference anywhere.
    Aug 17, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Macy's Results Affect J.C. Penney's Q2 Outlook [View article]
    Still the backhanded compliments.
    Where are the people who kept telling us Macys, Kohls, etc. was taking market share from JCP ("the gift that keeps on giving") that JCP is taking it back.
    Analysts are coming around, the company clearly is turning around. The amazing thing is that there is still such a huge short interest in JCP. You can bet they will be trying to drive the stock back down, same as they do following any good news....and we will be treated to another round of negative articles on SA, usually one a day.
    Who knows, someone might even try to slide in the B(ankruptcy) ALMOST a thing of the past. It's what they do.
    I am long JCP and ready to buy more JCP once the shorts do their thing over the next couple of sessions.
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree reverses course, now up 7%; margin growth promised on call [View news story]
    And giving away the profits from the retail market...just to satisfy investment analysts who are more mathematicians than they are business managers?
    NPM, not GPM is what matters.
    Example: if you have two sources of income at the same hourly rate, do you quit the second one because the cost to get to the second one is higher than the cost to get to the first?
    Or do you keep both and take home more?
    For a company, the P/E ratio is based on the net profit, not the gross.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Small Stumble For Neurocrine Biosciences Changes Little [View article]
    I came back after the earnings report just to declare that I am glad to see that I am the loser in getting out of this stock when I did. I root for companies trying to cure or alleviate diseases, and have never shorted one.
    I may even get back in...but not today.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reevaluation: Why Mattel Is Still Not A Buy, But There Is Hope [View article]
    It remains to be seen if a "new, improved" Barbie will be a net gain for Mattel. I say this because I doubt that the feminists want to identify with anything "Barbie." Meanwhile if you go too far you lose the princess segment of the market without, in my opinion, gaining enough to offset that loss.
    Look around and you see there is still a big market for the glamour, sex-appeal, etc.
    Autos, beer, entertainers...THAT is the market that also likes the old Barbie.
    (Mind you, I am not advocating for any particular Barbie, just passing along my opinion of who will buy Barbie and who will not.)
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week In Pharma: Xoma's Big Day And Dyax Vs. BioCryst Vs. Shire - Who Will Own HAE? [View article]
    WOW. Almost everyone asked for an analysis of XOMA...but instead of an analysis they got...‘stock collapsed, so I will discuss option 2.'
    Too bad you didn't discuss option 1 last week.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The battle to hold $9 continues for J.C. Penney [View news story]
    "Why on earth would Mandy Ginsberg, with her fine creds, join the Penney board?"
    Perhaps she sees something positive in the future of JCP? (I would give her the same credit you did and then take that as another positive sign for JCP.)
    JCP is trending in the eyes of investors (other than those blinded by their shorts) and sooner or later someone is going to take a big long position in this stock...just look at the 3-year chart.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CytRx prices equity offering at $2.75; shares off 25% premaket [View news story]
    I think you need to give them credit for having enough sense to know what they are doing pricing it this low.
    HOWEVER, on that basis, outsiders cannot trust what the insiders are doing. Go back to January 2014 and you will see that they did exactly this back then. Stock moved over 8 on good news, then they announced an offering at 6.50. I took my loss and left it behind back then because I decided I couldn't trust the insiders.
    By December 2014 it had hit a low of 2.05...then starts back up, gets some good news, high around 5.40 in April. On the way up, I was not tempted to buy...lack of trust, now affirmed.
    If you are in this stock, and you think they are just plain dumb, you may want to consider the possibility that they know exactly what they are doing...and may well do it again...but based on the 2014 experience it may not be until after the stock drops even further.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Popular retail names start off sluggish [View news story]
    I saw elsewhere a brief summary of what OTR had to say about UA, so I went to find out more, at Tipranks, which tracks and ranks analysts.
    1. Without the name of the analyst who wrote the report, I could not track him or her.
    2. In today's analyst report postings on Tipranks we have:
    Kelly Chen, Telsey Advisory Service, Reiterate Buy at $98
    Errin Murphy, Piper, reiterate Buy at $93
    Sam Poser Stern Agee reiterate 2 days ago at $95.
    3. No listing of a UA report from anyone at OTR.
    4. Of the hundreds of today's analyst reports, not one on any company from an analyst at OTR.

    This is the quote from Benzinga that I found via TD Ameritrade:
    The firm [OTR] said Under Armour's U.S.. apparel sales were "below plan for 5 of 6 sources...on delivery delays" and "poor weather." Analysts said U.S.. 2Q15 footwear sales more mixed and the brand has been "held up by excellent demand for Curry basketball shoes but offset by disappointing demand for sport slides, running shoes."
    "5 of 6 sources"? That's it? How many minutes of research did that take?
    Can we take this OTR report seriously? What is their track record?
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BMW: Headwinds In China Are Hurting This Luxury Automaker [View article]
    I guess the China situation boils down to whether it will continue for weeks, months or years...and only the political leaders in China will decide that.
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors - A Jackpot In Valuation Even If There's No More Growth [View article]
    To me, a fashion-based company is less about quarterly reports than it is about the fashionistas. When a brand goes out of fashion, the stock also goes out of fashion. The fear with MK the company and product line is that it might lose its cachet as the bag, etc., that women want to display. Always lurking with MK is, might the product line become the second coming of Coach...too many people with whom the fashionistas do not want to be identified were carrying around Coach bags, etc. So, predictably the fashionistas wanted out of Coach. We think of teenagers as being fickle, but they just grow up to become fashionistas.
    So when there are any signs of slowing in MK sales growth, the concern is that it is a sign of things to come...and it just might be.
    Mark, you make a good point that there is excellent value in the company's cash flow and balance sheet, but at this point in time, that will not matter if the over-riding concern is that the brand may be going out of favor. That the management is intent on expanding its distribution only adds to this concern.
    On that basis, one positive would be for a reversal of the sales trends...and you can throw in the profit margin as a related concern.
    The other positive is that management with outside support might decide to go private. The stock price, cash flow and balance sheet do make it a nice target for private equity buyers.
    I am uncertain myself as to how it will all play out, so before going long (I would not even consider going short) I wait from quarter to quarter to look for some resolution to the sales and brand recognition; and I watch for any signs of unusual accumulation in the stock or the options, with the understanding that the company itself already is buying back stock.
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales: No help from department stores [View news story]
    "U.S. retail sales were held back in June due in part to weak clothes buying trends."

    "The numbers would probably look even weaker if sportswear and shoes were backed out of the broad categories."

    I thought sportswear and shoes are clothes??
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment