Seeking Alpha

Upbeat

Upbeat
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Upbeat's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Don't Hold Your Breath With J.C. Penney [View article]
    Hmmm....looking at the recent sequence of articles, it is interesting that we somehow don't seem to get two negative articles on the same day.
    I can't tell...is is time for another back-handed compliment from Elephant Analytics or is it someone else's turn to submit a negative article on JCP?
    May 20, 2015. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Hold Your Breath With J.C. Penney [View article]
    Sigh. We are back to our daily dose of JCP short articles. I realize for a long time JCP was the gift that kept on giving to the shorts and to their competitors. And I suppose if you have been married to the same opinion for years, parting will be such sweet sorrow.
    BUT ENOUGH, ALREADY. At the very least, please stop rehashing the same arguments that were made a couple of years ago, and which company management has disposed of with their actions.
    PLEASE, SHORTS, HEED THE THREE-YEAR CHART. IF NOT, YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE YOUR SHORTS. (And it couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.)
    May 20, 2015. 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo's plunge, Alibaba's rise due to potential IRS spinoff rule changes [View news story]
    Has anyone noticed that the news services have become rumor mongers?
    Especially with online sites looking for clicks and eyeballs, they are more interested in running with everything and anything...and the traders and machines don't care about whether or not something is accurate, so long as they can get in and out first.
    May 19, 2015. 05:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo takes late-day tumble [View news story]
    It may be fact based, but it also might be another rumor that plays on the skittishness of traders and machines. These late day rumor-driven moves have become a pattern.
    May 19, 2015. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Stock Is Priced For A Recovery, Not Bankruptcy [View article]
    Ah, yes...our daily dose of wisdom from the shorts. The charts are against you, the company performance is against you, and one of these days a prominent buyer is going to have you stampeding out of your shorts.
    If nothing else, this article tells us that articles and comments from other shorts over the last couple of days, raising the specter of bankruptcy, can be ignored. So now we have to suffer with a rehash of the same "margins-stores-costs-... themes that no longer reflect what is happening at this company.

    It will be interesting to see the next short sales report and whether there has been any change in sentiment from the negative side. JCP used to be a pretty safe trade for the shorts crowd, but that is changing, and the range is narrowing.
    So when they let it rise in the hours after a quarterly announcement, then push it down the next morning, but a day later it is back up, and their daily negative articles begin to show little or no effect...you would think at least some of the smarter ones would be looking for more profitable targets against which they can ply their trade.
    The three year chart alone should be warning enough to the shorts that this stock is building a huge base.

    Whose turn is it to write a negative article tomorrow, or do you shorts skip Sundays?
    May 16, 2015. 10:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney - While The Recovery Continues, There Is Little Appeal For Investors [View article]
    Wow. I guess no one listens to conference calls, or follows the 3-year chart of the stock or the improvement in performance of the company or the changing sentiment of analysts. Even BMO Capital, which had a negative position on the stock today raised its rating, although it only raised its target to $8.
    I think "bankruptcy" was the ‘sky is falling' reason used by shorts more than a year ago. As that concern disappeared, too many stores (also addressed in the conference call), gross profit margin, etc. became the fall backs. So with those gradually being addressed we are back to "bankruptcy"? Can't you find anything better?
    One of these days some big money is going to announce an interest in JCP and this will be the poster child for a short squeeze stampede.
    The only thing bankrupt around JCP now is the reasoning given by the shorts. Yesterday I was losing money on my long position, so I bought more and now I am profitable on my total position. No doubt there will be more ups and downs, but the 3-year chart is the real tell on how this stock is forming a base and the shorts are losing their impact.
    May 15, 2015. 05:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taser International: Body Cam Business Beyond Priced For Perfection [View article]
    It does have a high valuation, and there is a chance that in today's market if they miss by a few %s, the stock will take a dive. But they not only have the product lines that you are underestimating, but they are still finding new product lines to build on that base.
    What also drives this stock is the steady stream of announcements of commitments for their products.
    Regarding your analysis, as but one example of its weakness:
    "4. http://1.usa.gov/1Fd00kl
    (61% in-car penetration in 2007; we assume incremental penetration to 70% based on trend and based on conversations with industry contacts)"
    You cannot seriously think that this statement that you cite has any degree of reliability or research behind it..."based on trend and conversations"???
    How about based on orders?? Mightn't that be a more accurate appraisal?
    May 15, 2015. 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Yesterday's Sell-Off Makes No Sense At All [View article]
    When I read the negative comments I think either:
    1. it is shorts singing their swan song, or
    2. it is followers who are repeating what they read a year or two ago.
    3. and who either did not listen to the conference call and the Q&A regarding cash flow and debt, or do not want to believe a management that has been delivering on what they said.
    What makes sense about yesterday's sell-off is that the shorts are trying to control psychology on this stock, and listening to the CNBC commentary, they are still succeeding. This is not illegal market manipulation, it is playing on the slow reaction of the market to evolving stories. It is what makes for sudden surprises when a favored stock misses or an out of favor stock surprises.
    When some big money decides to get there first, the whole market will follow. and after the short squeeze stampede and the stock jumps, there will still be a few who will sell short again and include the word bankruptcy as their rationale.
    Look at the three year chart and you can see that the shorts are losing their long term impact. They can have an effect in a day or a week--particularly when the whole retail sector is being questioned--but this stock is holding in a trading range and forming a base.
    May 15, 2015. 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Deserved A Bit Of A Rally [View article]
    Don't confuse investors with traders and short sellers. THEY are the ones who are making noise about whatever they can find to paint a negative picture. They are running out of solid reasons and are now clutching at whatever they can. It is the pattern for them to come in and push the stock down the day after an earnings report. It was down to $8.07 this morning. No doubt the shorts will continue to try to push it down and find reasons to justify the move, but one of these days it will be their last stand. A short in this stock has to be a huge risk.
    Compare JCP's quarter with those of other retailers, and it's conference call. No excuses about the weather, West Coast port slowdown, etc...just what they are doing to continue to improve.
    Look at the three year chart for JCP and you can see how times have changed. This company is improving and the stock is building a base. Analysts are starting to see and comment on the positives, rather than the negatives, leaving the shorts hanging out isolated, the same way investors were two or three years ago.
    Again, look at the 3-year chart. One of these days a big money investor is going to take advantage of this opportunity. If they did nothing else but announce they held a significant position, the short squeeze alone would be enough to turn a profit.
    Again, don't confuse traders and short sellers with investors.
    May 14, 2015. 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Another Equity Offering Makes Sense For J.C. Penney [View article]
    One other alert: look at a three year chart for JCP and you will see how times have changed not only fundamentally, but also technically in this stock. With the base that is forming, this has to be one of the riskiest shorts around.
    May 14, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Another Equity Offering Makes Sense For J.C. Penney [View article]
    Wow. The shorts are running out of arguments.
    Off the table: bankruptcy, negative cash flow, declining margins....
    Now it is time to fall back to an equity offering...nice way to try to put a lid on growth in the stock price.
    At the right price, an equity offering would make sense to investors, but not to traders so it would no doubt benefit the shorts. But it really is reaching the point where being in love with this short trade is going to start to hurt because you are running out of the negatives that could be used.
    All it is going to take now is for news to break that one major house or investor is getting behind this stock and the shorts will turn from being the vulture to being the carcass.
    May 14, 2015. 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 3D Systems Stock Remains A Great Short To $20 [View article]
    I am intrigued by the reports from DDD and SSYS management, and perhaps others, who were themselves surprised by the sudden drying up of orders towards the end of the quarter. Perhaps that is just an excuse for their own excessive forecasts; if not:
    * are customers dissatisfied with the products?
    * or (more likely in my opinion) might buyers either be waiting to see what HP will have to offer or already are being courted by HP. Even if the HP line is nowhere near coming to market, buyers may not want to make a heavy investment today only to look dumb a year or two from now. If this is the case, things will only get worse for DDD and others if HP does come up with a superior value proposition in 3-D printers, support, etc.
    With that in mind, I think it is too easy for shorts to just keep reducing the target price, but DDD seems to just keep reaching new lows, and the only risk to the shorts would be that the stock is or gets so cheap that it becomes a buyout or acquisition target.
    May 6, 2015. 07:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: Mother's Day Sale- 35% Off! (65% Upside) [View article]
    I am positively inclined towards the company and the stock, but the market isn't. Instead of "the law of large numbers" KORS the stock is burdened by "the law of fantastic numbers." That is, at any point in time the market does not believe the company can continue to perform next year the way they did last year. So when the company delivers a performance far better than most companies, investors see slowing momentum, declining gross profit margin, etc.
    That made some sense when the P/E ratio was higher, but by now it has become a stock that needs to shock the market out of its downward momentum. The quarterly reports don't seem to be enough by themselves, so I am thinking this stock needs to show something that the chartists like. I might be wrong on this, and I wish I knew more about charting, but when I look at that chart I see nothing good in it. Mind you, I usually rely on the fundamentals, but for KORS I think I need to make an exception simply because the chart is as bad as I have seen.
    One of these days I will buy back into KORS, but not until I see some sort of turn in the charts. (While I don't understand the intricacies, I do recognize that in their own way the charts reflect the thinking of the marketplace.)
    May 6, 2015. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Yet Time To Shop For Gains At Pier 1 Imports [View article]
    In today's market it seems that all it will take is for PIR to exceed analyst expectations, so as those expectations are lowered, we could see a turn in the stock price sooner than we see a turn in the company's performance. Throw in a raised guidance as another catalyst.
    I am not saying this makes total sense, but that is how the market works.
    May 6, 2015. 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuvo Research: Buy The Cash And Get The Company For Free [View article]
    This looks like a company with a failed product that is trying to explain away the failure, and restructure itself. The ring fence they are trying to build is around themselves and their jobs. The ring fence around the cash is to keep it away from the stockholders
    If that cash is not needed, as you say, then they could just return some of it to investors now. In someone else's hands I would say that using it for acquisitions might be a viable alternative, but not this management.
    May 5, 2015. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
528 Comments
660 Likes