Seeking Alpha

Upbeat

Upbeat
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Upbeat's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • What You Should Pay For Starbucks [View article]
    A better exercise might be to compare SBUX with other companies in its market based on demographics, as for example CMG. I have no idea how it would come out, but comparing SBUX with MCD or even DNKN misses the very different markets to whom they are catering. Even today, for example, the millennials market is valued more highly than the lower income MCD demographic.
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:28 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MobileIron Remains A Hold With Another Quarter Of Consistency On The Books [View article]
    Just checking in for new comments following up today's big drop, which seems as if it might be excessive.
    Also the comment from the CEO: "Further, we saw a large shift by customers to our monthly subscription offering, which resulted in lower billings and revenue." (Good thing or bad thing?)
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Pulitzer-Losing Strategy [View article]
    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So the shorts and critics will focus on the negatives, and there will be some in just about any story or investment.
    If the stories of the greedy going in and buying out stock are accurate, that can be corrected on the next round. However, give people another chance at another bargain and they will flock back again. People still go back to Walmart on Black Friday despite the risk of being trampled.
    From a glass half full perspective Target certainly demonstrated that it has a customer base, perhaps more than they even expected. And they are still on an upward curve in their managing the company, the product line and the price of the stock. Happily, I stayed long because my market timing goes beyond someone missing out on a Lily Pulitzer product.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party City Is Monopoly City [View article]
    Good analysis Alex.
    Question: might companies like Michael's expand into Party City's market?
    Comment: Regarding e-commerce company management (CEO?) on the IPO day felt that they had an edge over e-commerce sites such as Amazon because the PRTY product line is more conducive to bricks and mortars sales...he cited the helium balloons and that customers buying for a party want to do it all at once...matching the theme...and that they usually don't plan far enough ahead to order online. (I don't totally agree with this take, but it is what management felt.)
    Nevertheless I am very favorably disposed towards PRTY and your article is an excellent presentation. And my own experience with our local Party City only reinforces the favorable opinion.
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Should Be Taking Notes On Domino's Success [View article]
    I just came here after the 4/23 earnings to find out who knew what they were talking about and who didn't...right now the "hold" is up 5.21% in the premarket.
    I put you on follow, Evan, because the results continue to fit with your assessment of DPZ, while the DPZ naysayers are still missing the point.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Domino's Pizza: Let It Cool Before Taking A Bite [View article]
    I just came here after the 4/23 earnings to find out who knew what they were talking about and who didn't...right now the "hold" is up 5.21% in the premarket.
    As for tastes in pizza, to suggest that one individual's taste in pizza should have a bearing on the stock means THAT individual is not focused on what matters.
    Note as well that Dominos now declares itself as not just Pizza...and same store sales are up about 11% this quarter.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lot Of Uncertainty About Domino's Pizza Potential [View article]
    I just came here after the 4/23 earnings to find out who knew what they were talking about and who didn't...right now the "hold" is up 5.21% in the premarket.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pier 1 Imports Is Still Not A Buy [View article]
    Who do you consider to be PIR's prime competitors, and have you compared their websites with PIR's?
    If it is RH, they have a very stylish site and have a lock on the "have money, need to impress and be impressed" market. I am long RH because they do have a lock on that market, but they are in a separate product and price category from PIR.
    The RH site is indeed impressive, but not exactly easy to explore choices and find exactly what you are looking for...unless what you are looking for is product priced at double its value, or more.
    ETH? They have announced they are introducing new lines, but they will have to be better than what is now online. Otherwise they will be leaving a lot of room for PIR to move up the price ladder while still being a superior competitor to ETH.
    There may be other competitors, but it hardly matters in a market this large. The main thing is that PIR management appears to be executing on its online plan, and a sensible plan for store improvements/relocations.
    ****
    Another question: You state "When I last wrote about Pier 1 Imports…"
    Are you referring to your February 12 pan...when the stock was at $12.35? (Since then article the stock is up more than 13%.)
    ****
    Finally, for someone without a position, as you state, doesn't it seem as if you are trying unusually hard to discourage investors from buying PIR?
    To loosely paraphrase sage advice via Shakespeare, “Methinks thou doth protest too much” on a stock in which you have no position.
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pier 1 Imports - A Poor Forecast, But The Right Strategy [View article]
    tr, I had no problem following what they were saying, and the analysts on the call didn't seem to have a problem. You also point out what they were disclosing, so you had no problem.
    (Anyone who could not understand the problems that PIR is trying to overcome, based on the conference call, should be relying on mutual funds or other professional advisors to do their investing for them.)
    I do agree that merchants are not necessarily good managers and there were gaps at PIR. But my own experience in accounting and finance tells me that the CFO, if not the only one at fault, was asleep at the switch. Listening in on the call, the new CFO SOUNDS more competent than the old one did; time will tell if the execution is as good.
    More important, product and pricing is by far the most important factor in style retail. Without that, even the best operations management will not save a retailer. And at PIR product and pricing certainly looks to be better than it used to be, and the online presence is superior to RH and ETH...so I am staying long PIR.
    I also am long RH (because they cater to a monied, ego-driven market that likes to impress and be impressed)...but I will have to wait on ETH to see their new lines, because the current lines are dull and for a bygone customer…and they acknowledge as much in their announced plans. This encourages me to stay in PIR because they have more market room above them than they would have if ETH had a better line.
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pier 1 Imports - A Poor Forecast, But The Right Strategy [View article]
    I am already long PIR. Considering investing in Ethan Allen and reading their recent earnings transcript I decided to check their website as well as that of Restoration Hardware. I realize that they are in the same industry, but different segments but it still helped to compare websites.
    My take: PIR's is much more navigable than the other two. Granted there are a lot more accessories, fewer furniture choices, but no surprise, better prices albeit for less stylish furniture.
    For style, RH merchandise is best, but a lot more expensive.
    ETH needs to do a lot more work in style for the prices they charge, so I will wait and see what their new lines look like.
    And I am content having bought into PIR based not only on their financials and store plans but also what I already see on their website in terms of merchandise and the ease of navigation. Again, they are in a different segment, but as they are focusing on their e-commerce growth, the website comparison suggests they are on the right track.
    Apr 9, 2015. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences Had Wildly Successful 2014, Can We Expect The Same In 2015? [View article]
    Energy-Trader, if you were in management you would realize that delegation often saves a lot of energy. I had no need to do DD when a simple question elicited responses from people who already had.
    That is one of the stated purposes and benefits of SA.
    As for the input it would be reassuring that less invasive treatments aren't present, but with a company that is going to be investing heavily in FIXED costs better darn well not have competition not just in the next year but in the next five years.
    Me, I will go elsewhere.
    Apr 3, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences Had Wildly Successful 2014, Can We Expect The Same In 2015? [View article]
    Doing some further checking...what advantage does the stool test have over emerging tests that involve either taking a pill or a blood test? Is EXAS investing a lot of money in a sales force and test processing facilities only to have the market pulled out from under them?
    Thank you.
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of Neurocrine's Recent Insider Selling [View article]
    It has to do with entry points, and it has to do with whether management is managing the company or the stock price. Not all managements play the market, but there is a segment of biotech that do.
    One major concern with a management that plays the market, buys or sells when it is advantageous to them is that it is a warning that a runup in price might be followed by a stock offering below that runup.
    Following up on Youce1979, this management is buying stock at $2.59-5.76 and IMMEDIATELY selling every share they buy at $30.77-44.49. On March 24 Pres. Gorman bought 40,000 shares for a total of $103,600 and sold 40,000 shares for $1,661,200. You would think he might have built up his position by 5000 or 10000 shares. The same goes for other members of management.

    Again, I am long because of the company and its product line...but wary of how this management is playing the market and how that will surely affect my investment if good news might be followed by insider selling or a secondary offering.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences Had Wildly Successful 2014, Can We Expect The Same In 2015? [View article]
    This question is asked in almost total ignorance of the stool collecting procedure: might it be done in the office of a physician, where they do much of the handling? (Or is it already done in a doctor's office?)
    As one who has endured colonoscopies, stool collecting is a far better option, whether I had to do it myself or it was done in a doctor's office.
    I do wonder how much of the support for this stock comes from people who have endured the prepping and the cost of a colonoscopy...and wonder how many of the shorts never had one. As for the stock, I guess I need to take a closer look at the rest of the story (beyond how this procedure avoids a colonoscopy).
    Mar 30, 2015. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Michael Kors Can Reward Its Suffering Shareholders: Pay A Dividend [View article]
    Sure, it would be nice if KORS paid a dividend, but its rises and falls have nothing to do with whether or not it pays a dividend.
    At its current $66+ price, a 2% dividend would be $1.32 over the course of a year.
    That is nothing compared to the benefit stockholders can get out of the performance of the company and the stock price.
    Seeing as you want a dividend, just buy COH. Problem solved?
    Or would that be buying a bigger problem?
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
503 Comments
615 Likes