J.C. Penney: Bad News About Pensions In The Latest 10-K [View article]
And yet, despite all the wailing and hand-wringing from the shorts, the stock no longer seems to want to go down. I can't imagine what is going to happen when JCP management starts to roll out the new deals with brand names in their long-term plans.
JPMorgan: A Justified Move Upward, But Too Far, Too Fast [View article]
If you see little triggers in the short term then don't try making a quick killing in JPM. It will make the going smoother for those of us who INVEST in good companies like this.
Good call thus far, and I agree with you to the extent that I am still waiting to buy in, but good luck to anyone who waits until JCP hits 30 to cover their short; hopefully you will tell them when you covered your short if you do so before 30. As expected, reality did set in for the overenthusiastic (and quick turn profit makers) after the 4Q results, and the 1Q may also be a disappointment, but JCP management has already outlined their strategy. So the key to the next move will not be 1Q earnings, but the rollout of brands for their mini-stores. A better than expected 1Q will be a pleasant surprise, but the mini-stores rollout is more important to the future of JCP and its stock.
Horrifying Downside Won't Deter J.C. Penney Against Peers [View article]
Mr. Levine-Weinberg is short the stock and a constant down-player of JCP in his own articles, so it is no surprise that he would find fault with yours. However, this article also misses the point regarding JCP, which is not about financials at this time but about the marketing strategy JCP plans on rolling out, which is to appeal to an upscale audience that still seeks value in the brand names it buys...the Apple crowd and the like. Think of an outlet mall in an indoor setting and you may have a better idea of what we might see in a J. C. Penney store. If you think that will work, then wait and see if they can start signing up some attractive brands. But if you think JCP will rise and fall on its financials in the short term, then you haven't been following what the management is saying or what the people who have been buying into the stock are saying. Having missed my opportunity to buy in at 28, I am waiting to see if the stock will slide a bit more before buying in at 37, perhaps a bit lower, but I sure would not be short-selling at this point because all it is going to take to move the stock higher will be a couple of good name brand signups to their concept.
Short Opportunity: J.C. Penney Is Losing Its Luster [View article]
I am positive about JCP long term but felt that 2/24 would bring some reality to the early buyers. However, typical of someone who is short the stock, this article is filled with the most negative side of the story, laced with appropriate worst-case adjectives. I missed the boat on JCP when it was at 28, so I am waiting for a buying opportunity. I am still waiting, this time to see how the current quarter shapes up. This is not because I think the financial news will be that great, but to follow the announcements about the branding in the mini-stores. This is not about attracting Wal-mart shoppers; it is about attracting Apple shoppers. Everyone loves a bargain, but not everyone loves Wal-mart, or wants to be identified as a Wal-mart shopper. (Personally, I could care less; I shop Wal-mart as well as Apple.) Here's my take on the JCP concept: the emphasis is on the brands, not the bargains. Where do you find that now? Outlet malls. Go to those malls, with many of the best brands offering low prices FOR THEIR PRODUCTS and you will see what I think is the market to which JCP is appealing: people who care more about the image they project than they do about the price that they pay, but who still seek VALUE. So long term, the key will be if JCP can sign up the brands that will attract those people. And if JCP starts announcing some big name sign-ups to their concept, you can forget about your short position and trying to talk down the price of the stock based on overly negative evaluations of quarterly reports that were disappointing, but never were expected to be great and are only a sidebar to the attraction to current buyers of JCP stock, who probably are going to be the same people who will shop at the stores if they offer the prestigious brands. I want to buy into JCP at a low price, but I don't think "there is still a considerable short opportunity here". And I am willing to hazard a guess that you shorted the stock at a lower price than where it stands today, so you need to continue to talk it down in order to avoid being a loser on this stock. But if I were not already short this stock I don't think I would want to risk watching it climb if JCP management begins to roll out some big brand-name signups, because the market buys the future, not the past or the present.
Burger Wars Heat Up As Wendy's Moves Into No. 2 Slot [View article]
You say: "Wendy's (WEN) earnings call today was an eye opener." What was that eye opener? Your article is a repeat of previous announcements about what they are going to do.
Apple (AAPL) has a problem with the supply chain for the high-resolution screens it's using for the iPad 3, which is expected to be launched next week, and it may be unable to ramp up output until Q2, DigiTimes reports. The difficulties come despite the providers of the screens being Sharp, Samsung and and LG. No matter, shares are +0.7% premarket. [View news story]
DigiTimes is the one with the supply problem...they keep running out of accurate reports.
If Apple Is Lebron James, Then Microsoft Is Kevin Durant [View article]
What kind of a sports fan would line Lebron James to Apple. As much as I like Lebron, he has not proved himself to be a winner. And Microsoft as Kevin Durant?? I think you started from wanting to pan Apple vs. MSFT, then put the appropriate characters in place. Instead of drawing parallels with individuals, I would liken the two companies to teams...which is closer to what they are. On that basis, using baseball parallels, Apple would be the Yankees. I am not a Yankee fan, but they have a long winning history and plenty of revenue to sustain that. As for MSFT, maybe the Chicago Cubs, for whom hope springs eternal, but who break their fans' hearts every year. (That may be too harsh, so pick another team that did well about ten years ago, but has not done well since, but still has promise.) Anyway, thanks for presenting your case from a different angle and giving us something to think and chat about.
Short Idea: J.C. Penney Is The Netflix Of 2012 [View article]
I also believe that too many people have bought into this stock too soon...certainly those who think the turnaround should already be showing results. Looking at the management's PLANS, they also are not saying the turnaround should already be showing results. However, terms like "over-hyped", "bloated", "fantasy", and "major haircut" do not a bad investment make. So far, the bad investment was made by anyone who shorted this stock over the past month or so...and now is left with trying to drive it down. I have been saying I think it will drop some after the first earnings release, but not to the levels needed by the shorts. And if management comes out with a surprisingly good quarter, who knows how high the stock might go before the shorts can get out...and drive it that much higher in the process, Hmmm...maybe I should buy in now.
Now that is a great article on the subject of AAPL. Thanks much. Too many of the huge volume of AAPL articles are an author's opinion with little factual substantiation. This article is a model that should be emulated. Now if Apple can line up Jeremy Lin as a spokesman, we will have Apple Linsanity.
2 Main Reasons To Short J.C. Penney [View article]
The JCP story is not supposed to be about the next quarter. It is supposed to be about a change that begins in August and is supposed to continue from there through 2015. I know this is not in the realm of thinking for short-term traders, which is why I expect a drop after the next quarter, and that will be another buying opportunity...and a chance for the shorts to lick their wounds and get out.
2 Main Reasons To Short J.C. Penney [View article]
I agree that JCP is too high at its present price around $42. By the metrics it is overvalued. In particular, their next earnings report should bring some short-term enthusiasts down to earth. At that point I would take another look at buying into the stock...or waiting longer. However, with a stop loss at 50 and a buy-back at 31, it is almost a 50-50 win/loss proposition. I am figuring a range of 34-38 as how low it might go. 31 is a hope for the shorts who are losing their shirt on JCP
GotLife: 1. OK, now Ron Johnson is not too bright...amazing how much he has accomplished despite that handicap. 2. I interpreted Johnson's assessment of Ellen Degeneres as sharing the values of the people in the market category he is seeking to reach...the Apple crowd and the like. Obviously, she does not share your values, but I have a feeling neither does Ron Johnson share your values. After all, he is not too bright. 3. I will ask you the same question for which I have not yet received an answer from Igor: Wouldn't you agree that the shorts in this stock are losing a bundle and need to say anything they can to drive it down? 4. I do hope that JCP drops so that I can buy in at a better price, but I am not going to try to talk it down; rather, the next earnings report may take some of the premature enthusiasm out of the stock.
Speaking of deception: 1. please clarify "Disclosure: None" 2. Wouldn't you agree that the shorts in this stock are losing a bundle and need to say anything they can to drive it down?
Wendy's: Why This Fast Casual Turnaround Story Has Insiders Buying [View article]
I am hopeful on Wendy's, but based on the Arby's deals (in and out) I wonder if Nelson Peltz has anything on his mind other than turning a buck on it, whether that is good or bad for Wendy's. Looking ahead, you say “in the words of the new CEO, customers have grown weary of "a little bit of overpromising and under-delivering". Then you proceed to lay out all the plans (promises). You are right on with the spending they will need to make. (Is a stock issue possible to raise funds?) The best news is the growth in revenue, but is that permanent or a reaction to new products...and there was no surprise on the bottom line. I was tempted to buy some out of the money calls, but can't convince myself there is a profit out there. So, thinking about it further, I think I will wait for JCP to come back to me and for the time being wait to see over the next few months if the WEN CEO or the quick buck artists will determine its fate.
J.C. Penney: Bad News About Pensions In The Latest 10-K [View article]
JPMorgan: A Justified Move Upward, But Too Far, Too Fast [View article]
What's Wrong With J.C. Penney? [View article]
As expected, reality did set in for the overenthusiastic (and quick turn profit makers) after the 4Q results, and the 1Q may also be a disappointment, but JCP management has already outlined their strategy. So the key to the next move will not be 1Q earnings, but the rollout of brands for their mini-stores. A better than expected 1Q will be a pleasant surprise, but the mini-stores rollout is more important to the future of JCP and its stock.
Horrifying Downside Won't Deter J.C. Penney Against Peers [View article]
However, this article also misses the point regarding JCP, which is not about financials at this time but about the marketing strategy JCP plans on rolling out, which is to appeal to an upscale audience that still seeks value in the brand names it buys...the Apple crowd and the like.
Think of an outlet mall in an indoor setting and you may have a better idea of what we might see in a J. C. Penney store. If you think that will work, then wait and see if they can start signing up some attractive brands. But if you think JCP will rise and fall on its financials in the short term, then you haven't been following what the management is saying or what the people who have been buying into the stock are saying.
Having missed my opportunity to buy in at 28, I am waiting to see if the stock will slide a bit more before buying in at 37, perhaps a bit lower, but I sure would not be short-selling at this point because all it is going to take to move the stock higher will be a couple of good name brand signups to their concept.
Short Opportunity: J.C. Penney Is Losing Its Luster [View article]
I missed the boat on JCP when it was at 28, so I am waiting for a buying opportunity. I am still waiting, this time to see how the current quarter shapes up. This is not because I think the financial news will be that great, but to follow the announcements about the branding in the mini-stores.
This is not about attracting Wal-mart shoppers; it is about attracting Apple shoppers. Everyone loves a bargain, but not everyone loves Wal-mart, or wants to be identified as a Wal-mart shopper. (Personally, I could care less; I shop Wal-mart as well as Apple.)
Here's my take on the JCP concept: the emphasis is on the brands, not the bargains. Where do you find that now? Outlet malls. Go to those malls, with many of the best brands offering low prices FOR THEIR PRODUCTS and you will see what I think is the market to which JCP is appealing: people who care more about the image they project than they do about the price that they pay, but who still seek VALUE.
So long term, the key will be if JCP can sign up the brands that will attract those people. And if JCP starts announcing some big name sign-ups to their concept, you can forget about your short position and trying to talk down the price of the stock based on overly negative evaluations of quarterly reports that were disappointing, but never were expected to be great and are only a sidebar to the attraction to current buyers of JCP stock, who probably are going to be the same people who will shop at the stores if they offer the prestigious brands.
I want to buy into JCP at a low price, but I don't think "there is still a considerable short opportunity here". And I am willing to hazard a guess that you shorted the stock at a lower price than where it stands today, so you need to continue to talk it down in order to avoid being a loser on this stock. But if I were not already short this stock I don't think I would want to risk watching it climb if JCP management begins to roll out some big brand-name signups, because the market buys the future, not the past or the present.
Burger Wars Heat Up As Wendy's Moves Into No. 2 Slot [View article]
What was that eye opener? Your article is a repeat of previous announcements about what they are going to do.
Apple (AAPL) has a problem with the supply chain for the high-resolution screens it's using for the iPad 3, which is expected to be launched next week, and it may be unable to ramp up output until Q2, DigiTimes reports. The difficulties come despite the providers of the screens being Sharp, Samsung and and LG. No matter, shares are +0.7% premarket. [View news story]
If Apple Is Lebron James, Then Microsoft Is Kevin Durant [View article]
And Microsoft as Kevin Durant??
I think you started from wanting to pan Apple vs. MSFT, then put the appropriate characters in place.
Instead of drawing parallels with individuals, I would liken the two companies to teams...which is closer to what they are.
On that basis, using baseball parallels, Apple would be the Yankees. I am not a Yankee fan, but they have a long winning history and plenty of revenue to sustain that. As for MSFT, maybe the Chicago Cubs, for whom hope springs eternal, but who break their fans' hearts every year. (That may be too harsh, so pick another team that did well about ten years ago, but has not done well since, but still has promise.)
Anyway, thanks for presenting your case from a different angle and giving us something to think and chat about.
Short Idea: J.C. Penney Is The Netflix Of 2012 [View article]
However, terms like "over-hyped", "bloated", "fantasy", and "major haircut" do not a bad investment make. So far, the bad investment was made by anyone who shorted this stock over the past month or so...and now is left with trying to drive it down.
I have been saying I think it will drop some after the first earnings release, but not to the levels needed by the shorts. And if management comes out with a surprisingly good quarter, who knows how high the stock might go before the shorts can get out...and drive it that much higher in the process,
Hmmm...maybe I should buy in now.
Apple's Mac Attack On China [View article]
Too many of the huge volume of AAPL articles are an author's opinion with little factual substantiation. This article is a model that should be emulated.
Now if Apple can line up Jeremy Lin as a spokesman, we will have Apple Linsanity.
2 Main Reasons To Short J.C. Penney [View article]
I know this is not in the realm of thinking for short-term traders, which is why I expect a drop after the next quarter, and that will be another buying opportunity...and a chance for the shorts to lick their wounds and get out.
2 Main Reasons To Short J.C. Penney [View article]
In particular, their next earnings report should bring some short-term enthusiasts down to earth. At that point I would take another look at buying into the stock...or waiting longer.
However, with a stop loss at 50 and a buy-back at 31, it is almost a 50-50 win/loss proposition. I am figuring a range of 34-38 as how low it might go.
31 is a hope for the shorts who are losing their shirt on JCP
Dropping The Dime On J.C. Penney [View article]
1. OK, now Ron Johnson is not too bright...amazing how much he has accomplished despite that handicap.
2. I interpreted Johnson's assessment of Ellen Degeneres as sharing the values of the people in the market category he is seeking to reach...the Apple crowd and the like. Obviously, she does not share your values, but I have a feeling neither does Ron Johnson share your values. After all, he is not too bright.
3. I will ask you the same question for which I have not yet received an answer from Igor:
Wouldn't you agree that the shorts in this stock are losing a bundle and need to say anything they can to drive it down?
4. I do hope that JCP drops so that I can buy in at a better price, but I am not going to try to talk it down; rather, the next earnings report may take some of the premature enthusiasm out of the stock.
Dropping The Dime On J.C. Penney [View article]
1. please clarify "Disclosure: None"
2. Wouldn't you agree that the shorts in this stock are losing a bundle and need to say anything they can to drive it down?
Wendy's: Why This Fast Casual Turnaround Story Has Insiders Buying [View article]
Looking ahead, you say “in the words of the new CEO, customers have grown weary of "a little bit of overpromising and under-delivering". Then you proceed to lay out all the plans (promises).
You are right on with the spending they will need to make. (Is a stock issue possible to raise funds?)
The best news is the growth in revenue, but is that permanent or a reaction to new products...and there was no surprise on the bottom line.
I was tempted to buy some out of the money calls, but can't convince myself there is a profit out there. So, thinking about it further, I think I will wait for JCP to come back to me and for the time being wait to see over the next few months if the WEN CEO or the quick buck artists will determine its fate.