Bargain hunters have been licking their chops after the S&P's 9.3% fall this month (and seeing an average P/E of 9.9) - but that means that value traps are just as prevalent. A few things to look for: whether earnings are being revised down faster than peers, and how profit margins compare with historical margins. [View news story]
"...how profit margins compare with historical margins."
Nassim Taleb told us of the rare, unpredictable events that our minds are poorly equipped to deal with: "black swans." So what about the swans that are flashing neon because their imminent arrival is blindingly obvious? A debt-ceiling cataclysm looks more certain every day, and yet investors are closing their eyes. [View news story]
Yeah, I remember "blue money" rumor. Which would have been OK w/ me.
But the Slow Guy (me) scratches his head and asks -- uh, are you saying that a cashless economy will somehow eliminate drug use?
Don't get me wrong, I see certain advantages, especially in terms of tax collection -- but am highly uncertain about implementation -- the law of unintended consequences seems to me to have an unusually clear field of fire here -- here being the construction of a global (or domestic) economy minus cash...
Heh. In the event, I would not be surprised to see foreign cartels issue their own script.
Nor would I be surprised to see it stronger than the hypothetical "edollar".
Nassim Taleb told us of the rare, unpredictable events that our minds are poorly equipped to deal with: "black swans." So what about the swans that are flashing neon because their imminent arrival is blindingly obvious? A debt-ceiling cataclysm looks more certain every day, and yet investors are closing their eyes. [View news story]
Time to bite the bullet.
We must nationalize the black market*. That way, the unemployed can be useful, not so much by consuming and becoming addicted to the gov't-monopoly "chemicals of concern", but by creating and funding the gov't infra-structure needed to monitor users.
Beneficial side effects -- no more super-rich (hence super-powerful) cartels, gangs and mafias -- even better, no politicians and judges who discover they simply must take away ever more individual rights and liberties in the name of the "war on drugs" -- maneuvers that seem to inexorably make street chemicals cheaper and more powerful.
We can go into Afghanistan and buy up the opium crop, ditto the SA cocaine harvest, and keep them in a central depository ala Ft. Knox.
Think about how much all that will reduce gov't spending on military adventures, border security and "law enforcement"!
Any jackass that wants to dedicate his life to consuming a given chemical can prove he is an informed adult and then sign a contract w/ the state delineating when and where he can drive, what weapons he can own, and how much of his income is garnished to pay his bills. And (ahem! cough! cough!) provisionally abandoning his right to vote.
People short on money will have a gov't "credit card" they can slide to get their fix. Anybody caught selling non-gov't dope gets executed or whatever. As gov't dope is limited by law to a set profit margin, large scale black markets are not economically viable.
Any user messes up (read 'violates their contract'), he gets thrown in detox. We all know any addict will do ANYTHING to avoid that, including being a law-abiding citizen who is totally dedicated to not causing problems and being a productive member of society.
In other words, anyone who chooses to do so can live the liberal dream of a life totally controlled by gov't, and the rest of us can go our unimpaired and unimpeded merry way.
* "You want less of something, let the gov't do it..." Everybody says that, right?
Even if immediate catastrophe is avoided in debt crises on both sides of the Atlantic, the deals being struck are "almost guaranteed to make the broader economic slump worse," ensuring a "Lesser Depression," Paul Krugman writes. "The disappearance of unemployment from elite policy discourse and its replacement by deficit panic has been truly remarkable." [View news story]
Time to bite the bullet.
We must nationalize the black market*. That way, the unemployed can be useful, not so much by consuming and becoming addicted to the gov't-monopoly "chemicals of concern", but by creating and funding the gov't infra-structure needed to monitor users.
Beneficial side effects -- no more super-rich (hence super-powerful) cartels, gangs and mafias -- even better, no politicians and judges who discover they simply must take away ever more individual rights and liberties in the name of the "war on drugs" -- maneuvers that seem to inexorably make street chemicals cheaper and more powerful.
We can go into Afghanistan and buy up the opium crop, ditto the SA cocaine harvest, and keep them in a central depository ala Ft. Knox. Think about how much THAT will reduce gov't spending on military adventures, border security and "law enforcement"!
Any jackass that wants to dedicate his life to consuming a given chemical can prove he is an informed adult and then sign a contract w/ the state delineating when and where he can drive, what weapons he can own, and how much of his income is garnished to pay his bills. And (ahem! cough! cough!) provisionally abandoning his right to vote.
People short on money will have a gov't "credit card" they can slide to get their fix. Anybody caught selling non-gov't dope gets executed or whatever. As gov't dope is limited by law to a set profit margin, large scale black markets are not economically viable.
Any user messes up, he gets thrown in detox. We all know any addict will do ANYTHING to avoid that, including being a law-abiding citizen who is totally dedicated to not causing problems and being a productive member of society.
In other words, anyone who chooses to do so can live the liberal dream of a life totally controlled by gov't, and the rest of us can go our merry and unimpaired way, free to fix what is really wrong w/ this country -- which is that the people who have gained control really like our current situation, and think all is '... proceeding very well, thank you very much.'
Oh, crap, I forgot -- I am the only person left in America who is both not in a mafia and thinks liberty can actually work. That includes politicians and judges.
Sorry, carry on...
* "You want less of something, let the gov't do it..." Everybody says that, right?
Look for states to suffer a collapse similar to the banking industry implosion of 2008 as crippling deficits come back to haunt them, outspoken analyst Meredith Whitney said Tuesday (video). Whitney, famous for calling the financial sector crisis, warned banks aren't out of the woods yet, predicting a sharp drop in housing prices and shrinking trading revenues will decimate Q4 earnings. [View news story]
The tone of the tack/bukdow comments are reminiscent of the things said when she first predicted the banks were going down...
BP's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has created a drifting underwater plume the size of Manhattan, according to a new report that challenges federal estimates of the damage. The plume will remain in deep-sea waters for months as microbes degrade it “relatively slowly," the scientists say. [View news story]
Aeration might be good on parcels that have high enough concentrations... if any.
Potash Catches a Bid: Fertilizers on the Run [View article]
What happened is this -- nobody ever thought to use urine exactly like regular commercial nutrients.
Recent research in Scandinavia (search "Urine, Woodash" to start confirming this) proves you can. Just mix and apply. Dumping it on the ground in the old way cuts yields >90%. The various gov't scientists can read English very well, and Asia is BHP's target market.
Individual Asians may make less per day in wages than the value o' their daily urine production at current retail nutrient prices.
China alone produces enough pee yearly to put 500 pounds nitrogen, 50 pounds phosphorus and 100 pounds potash per acre on 257 million acres (my calculations). Which is way more nutrients than they need.
How can nutrient prices "soar" long term? They may well drop, even absent double-dip, it seems to me. Sales o' mined nutrients will not go to zero near term or ever, but the market now has a cap on it.
Doyle should grab the money and run, imo.
No short position in POT (thank you, thank you, thank you), but short IPI in a very small way.
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
You guys still don't get it. The research in Scandinavia changes the entire supply/demand dynamic permanently by proving that urine (10-1-2 NPK) can be used as is, just like a commercial product can -- MIX AND APPLY. Long term, how can plant nutrient prices "soar"?
No US growers will start using urine as a nutrient any time soon, but people in China, Viet Nam and etc will jump on this like a duck on a junebug. Do you all think that Chinese government scientists can't read? Do I need to point out that is BHP's target market?
The collective Chinese kidneys produce enough potash in a year to put 100 pounds per acre on 257 million acres (my calculation). That is just potash. Add 500 lbs N (urea) and 100 lbs phosphorus per acre, on 257 million acres...
What shortage? Ever? That is way more than they can use, at zero cost.
Fertilizers Poised for Powerful Growth [View article]
That and the approximately 10 grams o' immediately usable absolutely no treatment needed phosphorous that you excrete every day in your urine.
"Peak phosphorous" and "peak potash" are not viable concepts on a practical basis. The science is entirely clear on this. You produce enough plant nutrients as urine to grow enough groceries to keep you pleasantly plump.
There will be no systemic plant nutrient shortage on the Planet Earth unless one is politically contrived.
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
I have no idea where the true value o' the stock is -- I do know there is not now and will be no natural systemic scarcity o' plant nutrients.
People who are making investment decisions based on the thesis that mining potash or phosphorous is the only way to produce enough food in the long term should know that, in my view.
No one has challenged this number -- .66$US per liter is the approximate retail value of urine. Many people who get paid 1 or 2 dollars a day to make our shoes produce about 2 liters per day. Hard to see how prices will rise much...
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
So you have never heard o' photosynthesis? The old estimator is 20:1, as in plants are 95% air, water and sunshine.
This is peer-reviewed science, auto44... Pradhan, et. al, estimate one person can provide nutrients to create 2.4 tons o' tomatoes annually, as example. You pee about 1.25$US worth down the drain daily (retail). That is a big number in some places in the world.
That said -- Seeking Alpha has removed not one but two o' my posts. I have in no way violated any terms o' service. This is a disgusting and venal act o' editorial cowardice, and tells me all I need to know about SA.
Fertilizers Poised for Powerful Growth [View article]
Sadly or gladly, depending on your viewpoint --
Longterm investors need to know -- there not is now and never will be a population driven fertilizer shortage. There has been only an excess of ignorance. This applies to all the primary plant nutrients -- nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium.
Urine, more specifically human urine, is on average 10-1-2 NPK, and average adults make 1-2 liters/day. It is usable as it comes from the "tap", not needing any treatment whatsoever other than dilution w/ water and application to the fields. Primary ingredients are urea, KCl, and phosphorous. At current retail prices 1 liter is worth about .66$US as fertilizer, a sign of an inflated market in and of itself.
The stunning truth is this -- every human being alive produces more than enough nutrients in urine form to grow enough food to feed him/herself. The carbon cost is near zero relative mined nutrients, and there is no linkage to crude prices or the dollar. Nor are there any obvious insurmountable scaling issues.
Plant nutrients are NOT a finite resource, unlike crude oil. Population increases will NOT cause systemic plant nutrient shortages. The "peak fertilizer" scenario is fundamentally flawed, and will NOT occur in the long term, barring a politically contrived situation, which is unlikely in my view -- although not impossible.
I include no citation because peer-reviewed science is ample and readily available to anyone having internet access. You can search "Pradhan, urine", or "urine, woodash" as a start.
Bargain hunters have been licking their chops after the S&P's 9.3% fall this month (and seeing an average P/E of 9.9) - but that means that value traps are just as prevalent. A few things to look for: whether earnings are being revised down faster than peers, and how profit margins compare with historical margins. [View news story]
(Said in stage whisper): "Hmmmm -- CSCO?"
Nassim Taleb told us of the rare, unpredictable events that our minds are poorly equipped to deal with: "black swans." So what about the swans that are flashing neon because their imminent arrival is blindingly obvious? A debt-ceiling cataclysm looks more certain every day, and yet investors are closing their eyes. [View news story]
But the Slow Guy (me) scratches his head and asks -- uh, are you saying that a cashless economy will somehow eliminate drug use?
Don't get me wrong, I see certain advantages, especially in terms of tax collection -- but am highly uncertain about implementation -- the law of unintended consequences seems to me to have an unusually clear field of fire here -- here being the construction of a global (or domestic) economy minus cash...
Heh. In the event, I would not be surprised to see foreign cartels issue their own script.
Nor would I be surprised to see it stronger than the hypothetical "edollar".
Nassim Taleb told us of the rare, unpredictable events that our minds are poorly equipped to deal with: "black swans." So what about the swans that are flashing neon because their imminent arrival is blindingly obvious? A debt-ceiling cataclysm looks more certain every day, and yet investors are closing their eyes. [View news story]
We must nationalize the black market*. That way, the unemployed can be useful, not so much by consuming and becoming addicted to the gov't-monopoly "chemicals of concern", but by creating and funding the gov't infra-structure needed to monitor users.
Beneficial side effects -- no more super-rich (hence super-powerful) cartels, gangs and mafias -- even better, no politicians and judges who discover they simply must take away ever more individual rights and liberties in the name of the "war on drugs" -- maneuvers that seem to inexorably make street chemicals cheaper and more powerful.
We can go into Afghanistan and buy up the opium crop, ditto the SA cocaine harvest, and keep them in a central depository ala Ft. Knox.
Think about how much all that will reduce gov't spending on military adventures, border security and "law enforcement"!
Any jackass that wants to dedicate his life to consuming a given chemical can prove he is an informed adult and then sign a contract w/ the state delineating when and where he can drive, what weapons he can own, and how much of his income is garnished to pay his bills. And (ahem! cough! cough!) provisionally abandoning his right to vote.
People short on money will have a gov't "credit card" they can slide to get their fix. Anybody caught selling non-gov't dope gets executed or whatever. As gov't dope is limited by law to a set profit margin, large scale black markets are not economically viable.
Any user messes up (read 'violates their contract'), he gets thrown in detox. We all know any addict will do ANYTHING to avoid that, including being a law-abiding citizen who is totally dedicated to not causing problems and being a productive member of society.
In other words, anyone who chooses to do so can live the liberal dream of a life totally controlled by gov't, and the rest of us can go our unimpaired and unimpeded merry way.
* "You want less of something, let the gov't do it..." Everybody says that, right?
Even if immediate catastrophe is avoided in debt crises on both sides of the Atlantic, the deals being struck are "almost guaranteed to make the broader economic slump worse," ensuring a "Lesser Depression," Paul Krugman writes. "The disappearance of unemployment from elite policy discourse and its replacement by deficit panic has been truly remarkable." [View news story]
We must nationalize the black market*. That way, the unemployed can be useful, not so much by consuming and becoming addicted to the gov't-monopoly "chemicals of concern", but by creating and funding the gov't infra-structure needed to monitor users.
Beneficial side effects -- no more super-rich (hence super-powerful) cartels, gangs and mafias -- even better, no politicians and judges who discover they simply must take away ever more individual rights and liberties in the name of the "war on drugs" -- maneuvers that seem to inexorably make street chemicals cheaper and more powerful.
We can go into Afghanistan and buy up the opium crop, ditto the SA cocaine harvest, and keep them in a central depository ala Ft. Knox. Think about how much THAT will reduce gov't spending on military adventures, border security and "law enforcement"!
Any jackass that wants to dedicate his life to consuming a given chemical can prove he is an informed adult and then sign a contract w/ the state delineating when and where he can drive, what weapons he can own, and how much of his income is garnished to pay his bills. And (ahem! cough! cough!) provisionally abandoning his right to vote.
People short on money will have a gov't "credit card" they can slide to get their fix. Anybody caught selling non-gov't dope gets executed or whatever. As gov't dope is limited by law to a set profit margin, large scale black markets are not economically viable.
Any user messes up, he gets thrown in detox. We all know any addict will do ANYTHING to avoid that, including being a law-abiding citizen who is totally dedicated to not causing problems and being a productive member of society.
In other words, anyone who chooses to do so can live the liberal dream of a life totally controlled by gov't, and the rest of us can go our merry and unimpaired way, free to fix what is really wrong w/ this country -- which is that the people who have gained control really like our current situation, and think all is '... proceeding very well, thank you very much.'
Oh, crap, I forgot -- I am the only person left in America who is both not in a mafia and thinks liberty can actually work. That includes politicians and judges.
Sorry, carry on...
* "You want less of something, let the gov't do it..." Everybody says that, right?
Look for states to suffer a collapse similar to the banking industry implosion of 2008 as crippling deficits come back to haunt them, outspoken analyst Meredith Whitney said Tuesday (video). Whitney, famous for calling the financial sector crisis, warned banks aren't out of the woods yet, predicting a sharp drop in housing prices and shrinking trading revenues will decimate Q4 earnings. [View news story]
BP's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has created a drifting underwater plume the size of Manhattan, according to a new report that challenges federal estimates of the damage. The plume will remain in deep-sea waters for months as microbes degrade it “relatively slowly," the scientists say. [View news story]
Potash Catches a Bid: Fertilizers on the Run [View article]
Recent research in Scandinavia (search "Urine, Woodash" to start confirming this) proves you can. Just mix and apply. Dumping it on the ground in the old way cuts yields >90%. The various gov't scientists can read English very well, and Asia is BHP's target market.
Individual Asians may make less per day in wages than the value o' their daily urine production at current retail nutrient prices.
China alone produces enough pee yearly to put 500 pounds nitrogen, 50 pounds phosphorus and 100 pounds potash per acre on 257 million acres (my calculations). Which is way more nutrients than they need.
How can nutrient prices "soar" long term? They may well drop, even absent double-dip, it seems to me. Sales o' mined nutrients will not go to zero near term or ever, but the market now has a cap on it.
Doyle should grab the money and run, imo.
No short position in POT (thank you, thank you, thank you), but short IPI in a very small way.
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
No US growers will start using urine as a nutrient any time soon, but people in China, Viet Nam and etc will jump on this like a duck on a junebug. Do you all think that Chinese government scientists can't read? Do I need to point out that is BHP's target market?
The collective Chinese kidneys produce enough potash in a year to put 100 pounds per acre on 257 million acres (my calculation). That is just potash. Add 500 lbs N (urea) and 100 lbs phosphorus per acre, on 257 million acres...
What shortage? Ever? That is way more than they can use, at zero cost.
Fertilizers Poised for Powerful Growth [View article]
"Peak phosphorous" and "peak potash" are not viable concepts on a practical basis. The science is entirely clear on this. You produce enough plant nutrients as urine to grow enough groceries to keep you pleasantly plump.
There will be no systemic plant nutrient shortage on the Planet Earth unless one is politically contrived.
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
People who are making investment decisions based on the thesis that mining potash or phosphorous is the only way to produce enough food in the long term should know that, in my view.
No one has challenged this number -- .66$US per liter is the approximate retail value of urine. Many people who get paid 1 or 2 dollars a day to make our shoes produce about 2 liters per day. Hard to see how prices will rise much...
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
This is peer-reviewed science, auto44... Pradhan, et. al, estimate one person can provide nutrients to create 2.4 tons o' tomatoes annually, as example. You pee about 1.25$US worth down the drain daily (retail). That is a big number in some places in the world.
That said -- Seeking Alpha has removed not one but two o' my posts. I have in no way violated any terms o' service. This is a disgusting and venal act o' editorial cowardice, and tells me all I need to know about SA.
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]
Fertilizers Poised for Powerful Growth [View article]
Longterm investors need to know -- there not is now and never will be a population driven fertilizer shortage. There has been only an excess of ignorance. This applies to all the primary plant nutrients -- nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium.
Urine, more specifically human urine, is on average 10-1-2 NPK, and average adults make 1-2 liters/day. It is usable as it comes from the "tap", not needing any treatment whatsoever other than dilution w/ water and application to the fields. Primary ingredients are urea, KCl, and phosphorous. At current retail prices 1 liter is worth about .66$US as fertilizer, a sign of an inflated market in and of itself.
The stunning truth is this -- every human being alive produces more than enough nutrients in urine form to grow enough food to feed him/herself. The carbon cost is near zero relative mined nutrients, and there is no linkage to crude prices or the dollar. Nor are there any obvious insurmountable scaling issues.
Plant nutrients are NOT a finite resource, unlike crude oil. Population increases will NOT cause systemic plant nutrient shortages. The "peak fertilizer" scenario is fundamentally flawed, and will NOT occur in the long term, barring a politically contrived situation, which is unlikely in my view -- although not impossible.
I include no citation because peer-reviewed science is ample and readily available to anyone having internet access. You can search "Pradhan, urine", or "urine, woodash" as a start.
Three Fertilizer Stocks Poised for Growth [View article]