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  • Intel downgraded at Morgan Stanley; now sharply lower premarket [View news story]
    Windows10 preview has had massive interest, and it's exactly the right product at exactly the right moment in history.

    Looking forward is a good idea.
    Oct 15 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Panic buying in Treasurys - 10-year yield plunges to 2% [View news story]

    Buy volatility....
    Oct 15 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kuwait plays down prospects of oil output cuts [View news story]
    Saudis pumping significantly under their max capacity and it doesn't even matter since a lot of the glut is in light sweet crude... It isn't the Mid East oil that's driving prices. And anyway SA sits pretty with all their dollar assets in a dollar strengthening world...
    Oct 14 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IEA lowers oil demand outlook [View news story]
    Doesn't matter if supply growth is dramatically outpacing demand growth.
    Oct 14 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Has The Price Paradigm Changed? [View article]
    There's a bunch of different things going on driving the price lower: banks have been exiting the commodities business, global growth is slowing significantly, demand growth is falling and supply growth is close to overwhelming it, capacity exceeds demand comfortably, and most importantly, on a BTU basis oil continues to be THE most expensive energy source.

    Oil is still significant globally for power production but its being replaced for virtually any other fuel since it's so expensive. It certainly doesn't 'seem' to be expensive when you consider the shale cost of extraction or the US story in general, but end users globally can and are diversifying away from it.

    You also want to assume that Russia or OPEC won't shoot themselves in the foot considering their budgets require oil prices at $90+ but Russia didn't slow production during the post all-time high collapse of oil in '09 to $40ish and won't do it today either. And Saudis have been indicating they are tired of being the only producer attempting to defend price by reducing output while none of the other countries in OPEC follow quota reductions or have the ability to increase production. So there's a chance SA won't move to aggressively defend the price either.

    And then there's the PEMEX story, te global shale story, the renewables story...

    The bearish factors are significant.
    Oct 11 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More VCs raising alarm bells about tech valuations [View news story]
    California... used to be "my script!" now it's "my startup!"...
    Oct 5 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big changes at CNN lead to anemic results [View news story]
    CNN needs to review the models of Euronews, BBC, and Al Jahzeera if it wants to re-establish itself as a serious news channel.

    I have all but stopped watching it.

    I'm a little upset at the change over at Bloomberg from its heavy focus on news to extended interviews, Bloomberg was a great source for a while but management changes have led to a change in its direction too.
    Oct 4 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent crude hits 28-month low, WTI tumbles near $88.50 [View news story] the big banks slowly exit the business of commodities trading and artificially propping up prices to the detriment of pretty much the entire world....
    Oct 2 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple -2.8% as Bendgate, iOS 8.01 get more publicity [View news story]
    Well, didn't Jobs say 3.5" is the 'perfect' phone size....
    Sep 25 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple -2.8% as Bendgate, iOS 8.01 get more publicity [View news story]
    You're right, it likely isn't 'retail' investors selling, it's likely the major firms with their analysts modeling the decrease in sales from surveys released polling opinions on potential delayed or cancelled iPhone6 purchases.
    Sep 25 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple -2.8% as Bendgate, iOS 8.01 get more publicity [View news story]
    Surveys have decidedly shown that 'bendgate' will have an impact on sales; one survey suggested anywhere between 16 and 18% of respondents are delaying or reconsidering their iPhone6 purchase. If you think 'bendgate' is irrelevant, what kind of an investor are you?
    Sep 25 01:55 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: U.S. crude could fall $30 below international prices without exports [View news story]
    The problem with a lot of analyses on oil and US oil production is that it all focuses on supply and supply procurement and not at all on demand. The vast majority of oil consumed in the current US is for transportation, with all other sectors increasingly being victims of the lower costs of competing fuels.

    Oil still makes a difference outside the US in power generation but it doesn't account for much here, and outside of the NE isn't used for much heat. The NE is meanwhile shifting to gas as fast as the pipeline capacity is built to allow it to, decreasing oil's importance as a heating fuel, while at the same time higher standards and changing tastes in the US public have encouraged the purchase of more fuel efficient vehicles (i.e. multi-year impact on consumption).

    In the meantime we have all but eliminated our imports from Nigeria and bring in far less than we used to from the Middle East. We aren't in any danger of an OPEC embargo, not even close, and in the event of one, we'd likely be BETTER off because we'd be selling our refined products (the ban is on crude only) into a much better market....
    Sep 25 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: U.S. crude could fall $30 below international prices without exports [View news story]
    This is the worst analysis I see that keeps getting repeated by oil longs. The issue for producers is their AVERAGE cost of production, not the cost of production from any single well. So a fall in price would have to occur over a pretty damn long time period during which significantly more expensive wells are being drilled for fracking firms to ease up, let along "go broke".

    Not that it matters since - amazingly missed in this current and by the commenters ere - the ban is already partially lifted and workarounds for exporting domestic crude are already in place. Would a complete lift of the ban help? Sure, it would increase the pace of exports but what's really killing us isn't exports, it's the Jones Act.
    Sep 25 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere shareholders vote no to Souki pay package, but it's non-binding [View news story]
    Envisioned? Replace that with 'only option'. Revisionism at its best.
    Sep 18 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC statement and projections lean hawkish [View news story]
    replay of last year
    Sep 17 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment