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kmi

kmi
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  • The Republican plan to cut at least $61B in federal spending this year could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1.5-2.0 percentage points in Q2 and Q3 this year, warns Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips. A compromise bill with a $25B spending cut would reduce growth by 1 percentage point in Q2.  [View news story]
    Well the Republican plan is blatantly stupid and doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of being passed so who cares.

    Wake me up when someone in Washington starts working on something reasonable and valid and with a better shot at passing than a one legged man winning a hurdles race.
    Feb 24, 2011. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on this morning's oil spike: CNPC, China's largest oil producer, is evacuating employees out of Libya after its facilities were attacked. After a slow start, China appears to be taking the threat to its citizens seriously, sending planes, ships, and fishing boats.  [View news story]
    Chinese talk that Libya needs to settle its problems and regain control of the situation = attacks on Chinese facilities.
    Feb 24, 2011. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah announces $36B of measures to try and get in front of any possible unrest. "We don't want money," tweets a female student. "I want to know I'll be protected under a written constitution for the rest of my short life." A day of rage is planned for March 11.  [View news story]
    Palliative measures by a non-democratic regime funded with US dollars paying $90/barrel for oil costing the Saudis $2/barrel to extract...
    Feb 23, 2011. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Anyone who buys a house these days and pays the asking price is overpaying." Such attitudes, continually weak home prices and “a substantial risk" of further declines of “15%, 20%, 25%” do not bode well for the longevity of Obama's presidency.  [View news story]
    Hey JohnLocke - I couldn't care less what you do with your spare time...

    The comment I made was about trends in american housing, you on the other hand want to make the conversation about the political issue of illegal immigration, and I'm not that interested. Wyo might be though.
    Feb 22, 2011. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's simple enough math that even economists get it: despite severe austerity measures, Greece's debt continues to rise, assuring the necessity of another bailout. A return to the drachma or even more radical government cuts might help, as would a 30% haircut on Greek paper.  [View news story]
    Greece is inventing every kind of tax amnesty, holiday program whatever you can think of to generate revenue. The government is aggressively cracking down on anything that can be used as a vehicle for tax evasion.

    I think they are great long term steps as it will modernize and streamline the collections process and likely bring in lots of new or additional revenue, and short term it looks to be helping with deficit issues.

    However, even Greeks no longer see a silver lining. I still think the drachma is a longshot but the EU is moving to create mechanisms to solve the insolvent member country problem, they just need the bailout to last long enough till everything is finalized.
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO of Vitol, the world's largest oil trading house, expects OPEC to "move quickly" to increase production should there be an interruption in supplies from Libya. With Saudi Arabia struggling to produce just 10M barrels/per day, exactly who has the spare capacity available to bump production?  [View news story]
    If You Say So: yes, I say so.

    You clearly are not up to date on energy.
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO of Vitol, the world's largest oil trading house, expects OPEC to "move quickly" to increase production should there be an interruption in supplies from Libya. With Saudi Arabia struggling to produce just 10M barrels/per day, exactly who has the spare capacity available to bump production?  [View news story]
    More peak oil alarmism, jeez.

    By the way Brazil has some light oil to sell, some ethanol too if you're buying... meanwhile let's rant and rave about the end of the world as we know it.
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Anyone who buys a house these days and pays the asking price is overpaying." Such attitudes, continually weak home prices and “a substantial risk" of further declines of “15%, 20%, 25%” do not bode well for the longevity of Obama's presidency.  [View news story]
    Yes.

    And, since we are doing the 'anecdotal evidence' thing, I interact with many immigrants from many countries as part of my normal course of business, and take the opportunity to discuss their local politics with them.

    I can tell you receipts back to Mexico for one are falling even as the Peso rises. I can tell you that Peruvians see Spain as a better place to go than the US - not because of language or immigration - even with its 20% unemployment.

    I can tell you the Irish who came back in limited numbers after the Celtic Tiger proved to be more a kitten suggested many prefer Australia.

    both the quantity of immigrants as well as the quality - foreign born high skilled individuals - has diminished over the last decade rapidly. But of course, you are welcome to sit by a fence in Arizona with a camera and 4 by 4.
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The deficit debate remains fixed on tax hikes and spending cuts, but Niall Ferguson suggests another option: selling off assets. "Debtors can keep on borrowing until their creditors revolt, or they can try to dig their way out with austerity budgets," he says. "But a better idea would be to get smart and start inviting bidders to what could be the sale of the century."  [View news story]
    errr I like him. "The Ascent of Money"

    I like how he writes, he's not full of himself, has a sense of humor, and has some pretty astute observations.
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Anyone who buys a house these days and pays the asking price is overpaying." Such attitudes, continually weak home prices and “a substantial risk" of further declines of “15%, 20%, 25%” do not bode well for the longevity of Obama's presidency.  [View news story]
    As wealth continues to be transferred by every single method and policy imaginable from the middle to the upper class, house prices - a significant component of the middle class lifestyle - will inevitably decline.

    The buy-to-rent crowd will buy as prices drop to make the investment attractive, and prices will also drop as real wealth evaporates from the middle so that houses can still be bought and sold.

    An aging boomer population and diminishing immigration also decreases demand.

    There is no hope for residential housing right now.

    Structural headwinds coupled with demands to eliminate freddie/fannie and cripple legislation meant to promote housing on top of a changing economy which funnels all wealth to the top mean nothing Obama does will keep this turkey from getting cooked.
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. stock market has doubled in just two years, and Marc Faber points out that this marks only the third time it has happened into the past 100 years. The previous two times, the market crashed.  [View news story]
    Home prices still falling, real incomes falling, and inflation rising, employment stagnant, certainly it's good to hedge against the possibility.

    On the other hand, it's also arguable that money has been leaving the US for a long time, sooner or later it will have to come back.
    Feb 22, 2011. 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time reports a source close to the regime saying Gaddafi, knowing he cannot retake the country, threatens, or at least bluffs, to turn Libya into another Somalia. To start, he has ordered the sabotage of oil facilities, starting with blowing up pipelines that bring crude to the Mediterranean.  [View news story]
    I believe he can do it. There is zero, count them, yep, zero alternatives to him in Libya. No one credible, no organziation meaningful enough, no faction, no social group that can mount a credible government.

    Continued violence and a breakdown of the security apparatus has a very good chance of leading to a post-Saddam-Iraq without a US presence to restore order, and that will look a lot like Somalia.
    Feb 22, 2011. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time reports a source close to the regime saying Gaddafi, knowing he cannot retake the country, threatens, or at least bluffs, to turn Libya into another Somalia. To start, he has ordered the sabotage of oil facilities, starting with blowing up pipelines that bring crude to the Mediterranean.  [View news story]
    America has brought a lot of NG online, it's all at eia.gov, pushed up fuel efficiency CAFE standards, invested heavily into renewables and brought a lot of generation online... etc etc, but it can't happen overnight.

    Relax on the oil, NG is still cheap and abundant, if you aren't using it, you should think about it.
    Feb 22, 2011. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: The stock market finally shed its complacency, sending the S&P to its worst drubbing since August. Oil prices spiked to two-year highs on worsening unrest in Libya and mounting concerns that disruptions could spread to other major producers; VIX soared 27%. Gold and silver hit fresh highs, while ag commodities were crushed. NYSE decliners routed advancers six to one.  [View news story]
    Is the the start of the correction everyone seems to be waiting for?
    Feb 22, 2011. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude futures are already up more than 9%, and things could get much worse if hostilities escalate in Libya - a trend that could easily stymie consumer spending and confound an already fragile recovery. "Given the pace at which events are unfolding it would be daft to rule out a spike to $140 or beyond," Capital Economics says. April crude +9.15% to $97.93.  [View news story]
    NG still at $3.85, let's go friends, NG is the way to be!

    The BTU for BTU cost of oil versus NG is absolutely out of control. If anything, this situation should remind us that NG is the solution to the energy security problem, especially in light of the huge amount which has come online in the US since 2008 and the recent discoveries in shale.
    Feb 22, 2011. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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