Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View kmi's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Struggling Spanish wind-turbine maker Gamesa (GCTAF.PK) could be the first target for Chinese manufacturers looking to gain entry into Europe. Gamesa has been the victim of slowing orders in Spain and eroding profit margins from Chinese competition.  [View news story]
    Dec 6, 2010. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $321: Apple's Maginot Line [View article]
    Lots of Big Money in APPL, it's the biggest part of a lot of investment firms portfolios, I am very wary of what is going on with it.
    Dec 5, 2010. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Be Getting Into Real Estate [View article]
    A lot of the posts here are using "real estate" as a term to only refer to single family, owner occupied, residential real estate, but there are other property types out there.

    In terms of your question, I don't think anyone is attempting to propose a solution which will encourage folks to "get off the sidelines" and get the single fam residential owner occ property market moving again, but depending on property type and what you expect interest rates to do there may be a place for you to "seek some alpha" as it were.

    My own comment and several others here suggested that we believe the single fam owner occ residential market to continue to be weak, regardless of where or how interest rates move, for the foreseeable future.
    Dec 4, 2010. 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany's talk about leaving the euro is just that: all talk, Cullen Roche says. Not only do they want to prevent defaults on debt their bankers hold, but single-currency systems have winners and losers - and Germany's the winner, and will do what it can to keep poorer members on their knees.  [View news story]
    Just Germany's latest attempt to talk down the Euro-Dollar.
    Dec 4, 2010. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are we headed for Dotcom Bubble 2.0? Venture capitalist Fred Wilson says the landscape reminds him so much of 1999 that it's scary. Exhibit A: Google's (GOOG) reported $6B bid for Groupon. When time-tested metrics used in valuing a business are thrown out the window, it's a sign of a bubble.  [View news story]
    Groupon sounds bad from what most analysts are saying, the only positive spin I heard is Google=techies, Groupon=salesfolks therefore this is good.


    Google is still innovating and playing ball, they bringing out a netbook OS in a few days.
    Dec 3, 2010. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed policies are creating an asset bubble that isn't helping create jobs or acting as a real stimulus to the economy, Wilbur Ross says. "The banks have trillions of dollars of reserves that they're not lending out. Adding another $600B billion to it I don't think is going to modify their behavior at all."  [View news story]
    People say there is no demand for lending, I'd like to respond the supply sucks. Even for top tier borrowers.

    Banks pretend to offer loans and shut everything down during the underwriting. The big guys are too busy fixing their books and the little guys are getting regulated out of the business.
    Dec 3, 2010. 05:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's record rally has been attributed to many things, but one big overlooked factor: huge buying from China, which imported five times more gold in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. China may have created its own virtuous circle as it buys more gold, but the cycle has begun to turn vicious as it presses into other markets like oil.  [View news story]
    Agreed i was just about to post that during the oil bubble everyone kept pointing fingers at China, except the numbers didn't work. And then.. pop.
    Dec 3, 2010. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Be Getting Into Real Estate [View article]
    I'd love to hear alternative analyses, but most of the folks talking real estate all have fantasies of 10%-50% drops in values, ignore the fact that there are different types of properties, and don't deal with real estate as a primary business/source of income.

    I've been buying/selling for 15years, and have bought/sold during this downturn as well (as in post 2007), and I operate residential apartment buildings as my primary business.

    You're welcome to provide a different opinion.
    Dec 3, 2010. 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) is -0.6% to $20.32 after Goldman Sachs downgraded it to Neutral. Marvell's HDD controller business faces 'gradual erosion' from other storage media, Goldman warns. And Marvell supplies chips for the BlackBerry (RIMM -0.6%), and bets against RIMM sound good these days.  [View news story]
    I don't know about the second part, it seems RIM's new Playbook is using an ARM processor so it may not be as much a bet against RIM as it is a bet against RIM continuing to use Marvell processors.

    ARM arguably has the market momentum in the smartphone space and it could be RIM may be initiating a relationship, starting with Playbook, that will expand to using ARM products in its smartphones, as opposed to Marvell units.
    Dec 3, 2010. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A U.S.-South Korea trade deal - delayed from high-profile G-20 talks in Seoul last month (and for three years before that) - looks clinched, with an agreement to phase out tariffs on Korean car imports over the next five years. (WSJ)  [View news story]
    Ok I am going to make up a conspiracy theory on this one!

    US asks Kim Jong to shoot up the S Koreans so they can come in like the cavalry so S Korea gets all jubilant and says "OK U.S.A., let's do this deal!"

    Yeah that's exactly what must have happened...
    Dec 3, 2010. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Be Getting Into Real Estate [View article]
    Not bad advice but I have a few thoughts.

    I want to think it through more but haven't fit all the pieces together but here is my two cents:

    Loans are about interest rates and this is the biggest risk in purchasing real estate. My opinion is that interest rates are destined to rise. If they do not, you lose nothing. Interest rates on Real Estate will not decrease (they can't). So again, you lose nothing. There is of course a deflation risk, but I think we are 80-20 inflation-deflation right now. There's your risk.

    That said, how does that effect real estate. An inflationary future means rising interest rates, period. Therefore cost of onwership will rise. but an inflationary future also means the dollar's value decreases. So today's loan is worth less, so you want loans on real estate to take advantage. In terms of pricing? Prices will go up as the dollar weakens. VALUES will not. This is an opinion. My opinion is that prices will track inflation but values will not increase i.e. outpace inflation.

    So directly investing in real estate depends on your costs versus your return, which in real estate is triway - appreciation, principal payoff, and income. In an inflationary future, rents will increase, so you will benefit from this. Price appreciation will increase the value of your loan (as dollar loses value). Even if inflation adjusted value doesnt change, dollar for dollar you win. And you have principal paydown to boot.

    The question is here:

    The period of 2008-2009 I saw huge amounts rental unit movement. It continues to an extent through today. Basically, lots of downsizing, lots of folks doubling up, lots of folks moving back in with their parents etc. The question is, in an inflationary envrionment with high unemployment and increasing commodity costs, will folks BUY houses? Or will they buy Condos/co-ops? Or will they Rent?

    I don't believe the "people will always buy houses" thing at all. If the trend moves towards renting, houses may not even track inflation, and values may indeed fall. I also believe that baby boomers were raised to want houses, and younger generations prefer higher density housing. In general, I expect a protracted weakening in residential single family housing that won't go away with the recession, won't go away with inflation, and won't go away with appreciation.

    So, where is the value in real estate? High density. condos, co-op, rentals, multifamily. Long term I would shy away from single family no matter where the prices fall. I am thinking there is going to be a generational shift in ome ownersip which will last for an extended period of at least 10 years and as long as 15-20.

    We are now in our third year of the real estate collapse, and people have been bullish for two, sure if you stay bullish long enough sooner or later you will be right, but I'd definitely be very careful of where I put my money if I were not a professional real estate investor.
    Dec 3, 2010. 01:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration's new lending fund aimed at helping small businesses may not be enough to overcome banks' reluctance to make loans. Community bankers cite an "unprecedented" level of toughness from regulators, rendering them unwilling to underwrite loans they would normally make since they "could cost [the bank] dearly" in setting aside extra capital.  [View news story]
    Underwriting and the market are completely out of whack. I've both bought and sold real estate since 2007 and things just keep getting worse.

    Banks are torpedoing lots of deals. Some banks (the big guys) have standards that don't apply to anyone but like the top 0.001% of the population (doing something with Chase right now and its jaw dropping what they ask for) and the smaller community guys are trying to lend (doing something with one of those right now as well) but few deals fit in their programs.

    What the market wants or is willing to do and what bank underwriters want or are willing to do are two completely different animals and its hard to get any deals done.
    Dec 3, 2010. 12:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demand for the Galaxy Tab exceeds Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) initial 1M unit sales prediction, with the device on track to hit 1.5M units shipped by 2011. The surge may be company, OS, or device specific, but in any case, it may let Samsung and rivals expand even after iPad 2 (AAPL) ships in Q1.  [View news story]
    When you say "company or device specific" I'd suggest you rephrase that to "device or OS specific".

    Specifically, this can be seen as a win for either the 7" form factor which Jobs absolutely hates, or for the Android OS. Clearly, the quality of the device is meaningful as well, but I think this is less of a consideration.

    I don't feel Samsung has the brand identity in the US of companies like RIM and Apple, but the quality of the goods is definitely good. Both their Android based phones and their recent WM phones are awesome. Things are looking good for Samsung, and I suspect that they will continue to improve.

    Sammy bringing in some very nice tech looking forward to mobile computing too, there is stuff in the pipeline, looking much better than a MOTO or LG or SE...
    Dec 3, 2010. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The dollar slides after today's weak payrolls, but gold's back in nominal-record territory, +1.3% to $1,408, and oil is floating around near a two-year high, +0.5% to $88.45. Against the dollar: euro +1.2%, yen +1.4%, pound +0.9%, Swiss franc +1.7%. Copper: headed for its best week in four months, though just +0.1% today.  [View news story]
    Oil up on what...?

    Gold makes sense, dollar move makes sense...
    Dec 3, 2010. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Struggling Spanish wind-turbine maker Gamesa (GCTAF.PK) could be the first target for Chinese manufacturers looking to gain entry into Europe. Gamesa has been the victim of slowing orders in Spain and eroding profit margins from Chinese competition.  [View news story]
    Just the first. Spain has huge wind/solar subsidies and it looks like they are drying up. I wouldn't say this is a win for the traditional industries but it is definitely a loss for companies whose business model can't survive the loss of gov't subsidies. And there are going to be a few of them.

    Germany's solar under pressure too.
    Dec 3, 2010. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment