A consumer launch for Google Glass (GOOG) is "probably a year-ish away," Eric Schmidt tells BBC Radio. For now, Glass is only available (at $1,500/unit) to select developers and winners of a recent contest. Regarding the growing privacy concerns caused by Glass' built-in camera (whose usage, unlike a smartphone's camera, isn't easy for third parties to detect), Schmidt admits Glass will require "some new social etiquette." "It's obviously not appropriate to wear these glasses in situations where recording is not correct." [View news story]
I think it's awesome. At the most basic, with a device like this, I envision a situation where you will have a data overlay for everything you do.
Go running, get gps-based speed, altitude, and time data right in your field of vision.
Go to a movie, get info on actors and trivia right in you field of vision.
Go driving, get a gps overlay giving you directions right in your glass device...
I get the feeling most folks don't see the value of having a screen overlay for contextual search.
A massive wave of Asian buying of precious metals is emptying dealer shelves across the region. "I haven't seen this (kind of) gold rush for over 20 years," says the head of the HK Gold & Silver Exchange, adding that old-timers haven't seen anything like this for 50 years. GLD +2%, SLV +1.4%. [View news story]
Interesting times,
I do believe large players push markets around, and don't disagree with that, it wasn't my point however.
If we believe JPM's assertion that the gold selloff was primarily driven by "managed money" liquidating its open interest in futures contracts - and there's no reason not to - futures contracts do indeed represent 'physical'. Not that most folks who purchase futures contracts intend to take physical delivery ( the size and value of the delivery is too large for most small speculators to deal with, never mind storage etc)
The physical you are discussing is different in that it is purchased in small quantities (coins etc) with the additional issue that holding a futures contract incurs costs to roll over (which reflect storage) whereas what you have under your mattress does not....
A massive wave of Asian buying of precious metals is emptying dealer shelves across the region. "I haven't seen this (kind of) gold rush for over 20 years," says the head of the HK Gold & Silver Exchange, adding that old-timers haven't seen anything like this for 50 years. GLD +2%, SLV +1.4%. [View news story]
The guys thinking they are worthless don't understand what the contracts are is all.
In the underground recovery, I quote a very interesting point he makes:
"even though the percentage of Americans officially working has dropped dramatically, and even though household income is still well below what it was in 2007, personal consumption is higher than it was before the recession, and retail sales have been growing briskly."
JPMorgan suggests big changes in CFTC futures positions were behind the sell-off in gold. There are three [available] high frequency flow indicators (CFTC futures positions, gold ETFs, and gold coin sales in the U.S) the bank says. "There has not [historically] been a strong correlation between ETF flows and gold prices," while "sales of American Eagle gold coins … have actually risen sharply over the past two weeks." That leaves CFTC managed money futures positions, data for which was only available through April 9 at the time JPM opined on the issue. [View news story]
For those who didn't understand the market current, JPM is pointing out that managed money exited its positions in the gold futures markets, and managed money is "large speculators".
"Large specs" will move in whatever direction they feel makes money, and it's become clear that gold isn't going to move in the way other asset classes will during 2013. For those calling this an 'attack' or implying there are some sort of coordinated shenanigans, it's less likely that's the case than the fact that multiple large position holders identified the same trend at the same time.
This move also pinpoints the outsize effect speculative money has in commodities markets, which were erected not for speculation, but as a means of price discovery and hedging for producers and consumers.
Commodities markets aren't very large vis a vis the speculative money that is being 'invested' in them (of course the word 'invest' with regard to a commodity that produces nothing is peculiar in itself).
Goldman gets bullish on copper albeit at a lower price point. After a 13% YTD decline the selloff is "overdone," according to the investment bank which cut its three-, six-, and 12-month estimates to $7,500, $8,000, and $7,000 per metric ton respectively. Although some demand concerns are warranted given the cooling of China's economy, "underlying cyclical growth is likely stronger than the headline figures suggest." (Previously: a bear market in copper) [View news story]
I guess this means GS is moving to take control of copper warehouses and plans to artificially restrict supplies of the metal to producers thereby driving up prices like it does with aluminum.
Nearly 72% (6.1M bbl/day) of all the oil imported by the U.S. last year came from just five countries, in the highest concentration of foreign oil suppliers in 15 years, the EIA says. Canada sent on average 2.4M bbl/day in 2012, a record and 8% more than in 2011. Saudi Arabia sent nearly 1.4M bbl/day, up 14% Y/Y. Mexican imports fell 12%, under 1M bbl/day for the first time since 1994. [View news story]
From link looks like Nigeria has been all but eliminated and 'other' has fallen as US sources more locally...
Peabody (BTU +8%) posted a 13.5% Y/Y decline in revenues, attributable to a 12% drop in U.S. coal revenue and 6% fewer shipments; also, Australian revenue fell 13.6% on a 32% drop in realized pricing per ton. But the lack of further negative news is a positive, Cowen says. As the first (and largest) U.S. coal miner to report, BTU’s results offer a sneak peek at others: ACI +10.5%, ANR +7.7%, CNX +6%. [View news story]
You know... I don't know where my head has been, I should have bought the back-to-coal move.... hah... At least I was short oil...
Can the Greek banking sector deteriorate further? Yes, says Moody's in a new report: declining domestic purchasing power and liquidity" will be exacerbated by government spending cuts and rising joblessness, crippling consumer's "repayment capacity" and ultimately leading to non-performing loans above 30%. Furthermore, Moody's warns risky Greek government bonds comprise 87% of the sector's Tier 1 capital and "estimates €8B of further capital" will be needed to cover loan book loses. [View news story]
Banks and bank capitalization lead employment. Banks need to be solvent before they can lend, and lending is part of what drives economic growth.
That said, I don't buy that the banks are becoming solvent....
Despite $2T invested over the past 20 years in renewable energy projects, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy consumed have fallen by less than 1%, the IEA reports. A main reason is the continued success of coal, the fuel of choice for much of the world despite being in retreat in the U.S. and perhaps even in China. Until low-carbon alternatives get cheaper, coal will continue to be favored. [View news story]
Meh, welcome to diversifying off of nuclear.
The linked report is virtually useless with regards to the limited information it compiles and uses.
One would expect lower crude inventories to result in higher prices, but that didn't happen yesterday as WTI slid below $87. Walter Kurtz's four possible reasons to explain crude's downside moves: weaker than expected growth in China has sparked a negative sentiment in commodity markets; hedge funds unwinding positions; lower U.S. demand for gasoline; North American production continues to surprise. [View news story]
Yeah, so it's pretty obvious this Kurtz guy doesn't watch oil much.
Market currents like these where we hear reports of not-very-well informed observers grasping at straws to figure out what's going on are a little disappointing.
Oil trading follows some pretty consistent patterns around the report, and it was doing so yesterday too.
Without necessarily saying so explicitly, central bankers have acknowledged that they're flying blind as they try to spark growth with aggressive monetary easing. "We don't fully understand what is happening in advanced economies," Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, formerly of the ECB, told the IMF's Spring meeting. The major question is whether the banks' policies are storing up serious trouble for the future. [View news story]
Here I'll explain it to you....
Commodities were in a bit of a bubble because China drove down labor costs so far that it just made tons of sense to buy stuff instead of repair stuff. So, investors bought commodities making the bubble a bit bigger. Then we had, basically, a global recession. Then you had central banks try to reflate, by driving down interest rates, which resulted in productivity going way up when companies invested in efficiency rather than in labor.
Since then, employment and middle class wages have NEVER come back, which has drastically reduced global consumption in the face of huge productivity growth and massive overproduction of commodities.
With banks not lending to the real economy in any meaningful way because of their messed up balance sheets, growth is being strangled.
So low interest rates didn't really help anyone but the banks, but who gives a damn about the banks and the financial system if the entire global economy is in zombie status....
Now the fed talks about increasing asset purchases because QE isn't driving inflation to 2%, but monetary policy is out of bullets and -cannot- create inflation because QE is in fact suppressing economic activity because it is only serving to support bank balance sheets and not trickling into the real economy in any way.
Without actual fiscal policy from governments promoting employment expansion in the economy - because economic expansion results from productive activity and productive activity has fallen with rising unemployment and falling real wages - the US is moving towards a deflationary scenario which will emulate Japan and stick us in a rut for another 20 years.
A key barometer for the global economy, copper, broke through key support today, sending out a danger signal for the metal and possibly stocks and other risk assets as well. The metal finished the day at $3.1875, its first close below key $3.20 support since October 2011. "It reminds me a lot of gold before that big breakdown," says Auerbach Grayson's Richard Ross. "This is the first significant break in two years," Ross says, and when gold broke below that level it broke hard. Ross thinks copper is setting itself up for precisely that type of move. [View news story]
Dr. Copper is absolutely giving us hints as to where and how the global economy will move. There have been huge gains in production of commodities over the last decade, and recent slowdowns in consumption hadn't been reflected in the price because of the financialization of commodities.
More recently, we've seen huge gains in productivity and efficiency, which are further bearish on commodity consumption. This is pure supply-demand, folks. We are using less to produce more while at the same time we have been mining the bejeezus out of it, and people are consuming fewer products of which it is a component.
Decreasing costs for commodities plus decreasing consumption mean prices will go down. Now let's guess what that means for the values of goods and products... and what impact that will have on the dollar, real estate, interest rates, and the economy at large.... who wants to guess...
Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4. March industrial production misses expectations of 10% growth, rising just 8.9%. Retail sales, however, beats forecasts, rising 12.6% vs. 12.3% expected. Asia's taking a bit of a tumble, Shanghai -0.6%, and the Hang Seng -1.6%. The aussie (FXA) slides 0.6% to $1.0463. [View news story]
I agree a .2 miss into jittery markets is what we are seeing. I disagree that 'All is Quiet on the China Front' however. I also think you have a highly idealized perspective of China....
A consumer launch for Google Glass (GOOG) is "probably a year-ish away," Eric Schmidt tells BBC Radio. For now, Glass is only available (at $1,500/unit) to select developers and winners of a recent contest. Regarding the growing privacy concerns caused by Glass' built-in camera (whose usage, unlike a smartphone's camera, isn't easy for third parties to detect), Schmidt admits Glass will require "some new social etiquette." "It's obviously not appropriate to wear these glasses in situations where recording is not correct." [View news story]
Go running, get gps-based speed, altitude, and time data right in your field of vision.
Go to a movie, get info on actors and trivia right in you field of vision.
Go driving, get a gps overlay giving you directions right in your glass device...
I get the feeling most folks don't see the value of having a screen overlay for contextual search.
A massive wave of Asian buying of precious metals is emptying dealer shelves across the region. "I haven't seen this (kind of) gold rush for over 20 years," says the head of the HK Gold & Silver Exchange, adding that old-timers haven't seen anything like this for 50 years. GLD +2%, SLV +1.4%. [View news story]
I do believe large players push markets around, and don't disagree with that, it wasn't my point however.
If we believe JPM's assertion that the gold selloff was primarily driven by "managed money" liquidating its open interest in futures contracts - and there's no reason not to - futures contracts do indeed represent 'physical'. Not that most folks who purchase futures contracts intend to take physical delivery ( the size and value of the delivery is too large for most small speculators to deal with, never mind storage etc)
Link to gold's future contract specifications: http://bit.ly/V4pMBG
The physical you are discussing is different in that it is purchased in small quantities (coins etc) with the additional issue that holding a futures contract incurs costs to roll over (which reflect storage) whereas what you have under your mattress does not....
A massive wave of Asian buying of precious metals is emptying dealer shelves across the region. "I haven't seen this (kind of) gold rush for over 20 years," says the head of the HK Gold & Silver Exchange, adding that old-timers haven't seen anything like this for 50 years. GLD +2%, SLV +1.4%. [View news story]
Three lunchtime reads:
1) Austerity on trial with U.S. versus Europe amid new evidence
2) The underground recovery
3) Singapore will replace Switzerland as wealth capital [View news story]
"even though the percentage of Americans officially working has dropped dramatically, and even though household income is still well below what it was in 2007, personal consumption is higher than it was before the recession, and retail sales have been growing briskly."
It's an interesting read.
JPMorgan suggests big changes in CFTC futures positions were behind the sell-off in gold. There are three [available] high frequency flow indicators (CFTC futures positions, gold ETFs, and gold coin sales in the U.S) the bank says. "There has not [historically] been a strong correlation between ETF flows and gold prices," while "sales of American Eagle gold coins … have actually risen sharply over the past two weeks." That leaves CFTC managed money futures positions, data for which was only available through April 9 at the time JPM opined on the issue. [View news story]
Some info on what that means: http://1.usa.gov/14J3zQe
"Large specs" will move in whatever direction they feel makes money, and it's become clear that gold isn't going to move in the way other asset classes will during 2013. For those calling this an 'attack' or implying there are some sort of coordinated shenanigans, it's less likely that's the case than the fact that multiple large position holders identified the same trend at the same time.
This move also pinpoints the outsize effect speculative money has in commodities markets, which were erected not for speculation, but as a means of price discovery and hedging for producers and consumers.
Commodities markets aren't very large vis a vis the speculative money that is being 'invested' in them (of course the word 'invest' with regard to a commodity that produces nothing is peculiar in itself).
Goldman gets bullish on copper albeit at a lower price point. After a 13% YTD decline the selloff is "overdone," according to the investment bank which cut its three-, six-, and 12-month estimates to $7,500, $8,000, and $7,000 per metric ton respectively. Although some demand concerns are warranted given the cooling of China's economy, "underlying cyclical growth is likely stronger than the headline figures suggest." (Previously: a bear market in copper) [View news story]
Why Natural Gas Has Not Lifted Coal Stocks [View article]
Nearly 72% (6.1M bbl/day) of all the oil imported by the U.S. last year came from just five countries, in the highest concentration of foreign oil suppliers in 15 years, the EIA says. Canada sent on average 2.4M bbl/day in 2012, a record and 8% more than in 2011. Saudi Arabia sent nearly 1.4M bbl/day, up 14% Y/Y. Mexican imports fell 12%, under 1M bbl/day for the first time since 1994. [View news story]
Peabody (BTU +8%) posted a 13.5% Y/Y decline in revenues, attributable to a 12% drop in U.S. coal revenue and 6% fewer shipments; also, Australian revenue fell 13.6% on a 32% drop in realized pricing per ton. But the lack of further negative news is a positive, Cowen says. As the first (and largest) U.S. coal miner to report, BTU’s results offer a sneak peek at others: ACI +10.5%, ANR +7.7%, CNX +6%. [View news story]
Can the Greek banking sector deteriorate further? Yes, says Moody's in a new report: declining domestic purchasing power and liquidity" will be exacerbated by government spending cuts and rising joblessness, crippling consumer's "repayment capacity" and ultimately leading to non-performing loans above 30%. Furthermore, Moody's warns risky Greek government bonds comprise 87% of the sector's Tier 1 capital and "estimates €8B of further capital" will be needed to cover loan book loses. [View news story]
That said, I don't buy that the banks are becoming solvent....
Despite $2T invested over the past 20 years in renewable energy projects, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy consumed have fallen by less than 1%, the IEA reports. A main reason is the continued success of coal, the fuel of choice for much of the world despite being in retreat in the U.S. and perhaps even in China. Until low-carbon alternatives get cheaper, coal will continue to be favored. [View news story]
The linked report is virtually useless with regards to the limited information it compiles and uses.
One would expect lower crude inventories to result in higher prices, but that didn't happen yesterday as WTI slid below $87. Walter Kurtz's four possible reasons to explain crude's downside moves: weaker than expected growth in China has sparked a negative sentiment in commodity markets; hedge funds unwinding positions; lower U.S. demand for gasoline; North American production continues to surprise. [View news story]
Market currents like these where we hear reports of not-very-well informed observers grasping at straws to figure out what's going on are a little disappointing.
Oil trading follows some pretty consistent patterns around the report, and it was doing so yesterday too.
Without necessarily saying so explicitly, central bankers have acknowledged that they're flying blind as they try to spark growth with aggressive monetary easing. "We don't fully understand what is happening in advanced economies," Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, formerly of the ECB, told the IMF's Spring meeting. The major question is whether the banks' policies are storing up serious trouble for the future. [View news story]
Commodities were in a bit of a bubble because China drove down labor costs so far that it just made tons of sense to buy stuff instead of repair stuff. So, investors bought commodities making the bubble a bit bigger. Then we had, basically, a global recession. Then you had central banks try to reflate, by driving down interest rates, which resulted in productivity going way up when companies invested in efficiency rather than in labor.
Since then, employment and middle class wages have NEVER come back, which has drastically reduced global consumption in the face of huge productivity growth and massive overproduction of commodities.
With banks not lending to the real economy in any meaningful way because of their messed up balance sheets, growth is being strangled.
So low interest rates didn't really help anyone but the banks, but who gives a damn about the banks and the financial system if the entire global economy is in zombie status....
Now the fed talks about increasing asset purchases because QE isn't driving inflation to 2%, but monetary policy is out of bullets and -cannot- create inflation because QE is in fact suppressing economic activity because it is only serving to support bank balance sheets and not trickling into the real economy in any way.
Without actual fiscal policy from governments promoting employment expansion in the economy - because economic expansion results from productive activity and productive activity has fallen with rising unemployment and falling real wages - the US is moving towards a deflationary scenario which will emulate Japan and stick us in a rut for another 20 years.
So, well, that's the gist of it....
A key barometer for the global economy, copper, broke through key support today, sending out a danger signal for the metal and possibly stocks and other risk assets as well. The metal finished the day at $3.1875, its first close below key $3.20 support since October 2011. "It reminds me a lot of gold before that big breakdown," says Auerbach Grayson's Richard Ross. "This is the first significant break in two years," Ross says, and when gold broke below that level it broke hard. Ross thinks copper is setting itself up for precisely that type of move. [View news story]
More recently, we've seen huge gains in productivity and efficiency, which are further bearish on commodity consumption. This is pure supply-demand, folks. We are using less to produce more while at the same time we have been mining the bejeezus out of it, and people are consuming fewer products of which it is a component.
Decreasing costs for commodities plus decreasing consumption mean prices will go down. Now let's guess what that means for the values of goods and products... and what impact that will have on the dollar, real estate, interest rates, and the economy at large.... who wants to guess...
Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4. March industrial production misses expectations of 10% growth, rising just 8.9%. Retail sales, however, beats forecasts, rising 12.6% vs. 12.3% expected. Asia's taking a bit of a tumble, Shanghai -0.6%, and the Hang Seng -1.6%. The aussie (FXA) slides 0.6% to $1.0463. [View news story]