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kmi

kmi
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  • Iran to double oil exports if sanctions lifted [View news story]
    Oil has become more transparent in the last couple of years, not less, in particular as Dodd-Frank has come into play and banks have exited their commodities business. Like treasuries in the last year however, there's a ton of volatility and price obscurement by investors and traders who view it as an asset class and trading vehicle.
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals [View news story]
    With the revisions in payrolls and this going on, plus China and (I bet) no deal on Iran, it's also debatable if we see rates raised....
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals [View news story]
    Great charts:

    Austerity scale in Greece, compared to other nations:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9pcy

    Greece austerity gauge, government spending down 20%, way more than in any other EZ country:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9mO9

    Greek employment at 1985 levels:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9mOb

    Greek export growth failure under the current programs:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9n4s
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals [View news story]
    ^^ This guy hasn't got a clue.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals [View news story]
    For people following this, it is also notable that the heads of every major party in Greece issued a joint statement with the PM that Greece's goal was to remain in the EZ while reaching a viable long term agreement with its creditors.

    They took 'regime change' off the table. On a national, united front.

    http://bit.ly/1HI5whq
    http://reut.rs/1HKuwok

    If a deal is to be made, it will be made with this administration.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB maintains emergency loan cap [View news story]
    Greece's branch of the ECB can print 20 Euro notes!
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB maintains emergency loan cap [View news story]
    "You mean those same reforms other PIIGS country successfully implemented?"

    Greece will never be an export economy like Spain.
    Ireland was allowed to keep its corporate tax rate to keep the multinational corporate tax evasion scheme going as a backdoor bailout.

    The program for Greece is wrong for the country's economy, and Syriza proposed tax increases to close the budget gap (austerity, yes, it proposed a form of austerity!) but was informed that kind of austerity is not acceptable - it must spending cuts that it enacts.

    So yes, I precisely mean "those same reforms other PIIGS country successfully implemented".

    As for the drachma, Greek entrepreneurs have been going to Bulgaria - an EU country that is not on the Euro - buying passports and erecting businesses there. The drachma would bring many of them back. So yeah! Eat the drachma Greece!

    Hilarious.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB maintains emergency loan cap [View news story]
    " but what about the structural reforms? What about the corruption, the tax evasion, the fiscal mismanagement? "

    All of that is in process, and you'd know that if you paid attention, or read the link I posted above.

    "And we're supposed to feel sorry for them?"

    I don't know where you get this from. I don't feel sorry for the Greeks at all. The issue is simple, and try to grasp this:

    Either Greece defaults on its obligations to its creditors and goes through a hard restructuring, and its creditors lose billions while creating a dangerous precedent for Eurozone exit, or Greece goes through a managed restructuring with its creditors and take small haircuts and Greece returns to growth.

    It's six of one or half a dozen of another. Greece doesn't have the funds and will never have the funds to make its creditors whole, a default and restructure of some type is guaranteed. Sorry? No. What you should be thinking about is your wallet.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran to double oil exports if sanctions lifted [View news story]
    The energy it produces versus its alternatives, for an equivalent cost.

    The NE USA has/had a high percentage of homes using fuel oil for heat which have been switching to nat gas because it is so much cheaper to use as a fuel source to produce equivalent amounts of heat. As long as oil costs significantly more than nat gas to produce equivalent amounts of heat, the capital cost of a fuel source switch will make sense and the process of fuel source switching continues.

    The same goes for smaller scale diesel generators, which used to be much more popular. They still tend to be, because transporting diesel is easier than piping nat gas, but again, the cost of the capital investment in piping hasn't been significant vis a vis the cost for continuing to use expensive oil against nat gas to produce equivalent amounts of energy.

    No matter how far you go, all the way up to utility scale, oil has been pricing itself out of the market for years.
    Jul 7, 2015. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets pull back from worst levels as Greek finance minister resigns [View news story]
    Sorry alterami but your comment is absolutely assinine.

    Seriously? 'Banks can never ever be blamed even when they themselves admit it'?

    Because blaming banks is a 'left-wing' position??

    Thanks for the amusement!

    PS: Economics 101: home finances are not sovereign nation finances. Not even close. If you are trying to compare your credit card to the running and financing of a country, you are really out of your depth.
    Jul 6, 2015. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece gets a new finance minister [View news story]
    "The EU was rather EUfanatic to support an unsupportive Greece for so long, still reaching out for an agreement after months of incompency, insults and negotiation tricks."

    The backwards looking conversation is all wrong. Greeks took on the burden of saving Eurozone banks for the last 5 years and now that everything is in good shape Greece is being blamed for taking the money that saved the Eurozone's banks and allowed the Eurogroup the time to develop the mechanisms that will keep a default from harming the rest of the system....

    The only way to move the conversation forward is when everyone stops looking backward...

    Greeks don't want 30 years of debt slavery any more than Germans want to provide more money to Greece. Greece needs to grow its way out of its debt to gdp burden, and Germany needs to stop forcing the wrong types of austerity policies on Greece.
    Jul 6, 2015. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece gets a new finance minister [View news story]
    Because you could not... cheers!
    Jul 6, 2015. 06:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets pull back from worst levels as Greek finance minister resigns [View news story]
    Greece backstopped European banks in solidarity to the Eurozone project, only to get treated like garbage now that it is no longer needed.

    Good post on how things went down, starting with 2010:

    http://bit.ly/1NJLMKt

    "The 2010 assistance program was widely understood at the time to be motivated by the need to prevent disruptive write downs at non-Greek banks. The Guardian reported in February 2010 that France and Switzerland had exposures to Greece of €55B each ($119B @ 1.4266 $/€), and Germany €30B ($43B @ 1.4266 $/€), based on BIS data....

    [W]hy are [Eurozone finance ministers] supporting these financial assistance programmes? Because, if they are not implemented, the non-payment of debt — including bank debt — by the nations on the periphery would lead to severe banking crises and a return to recession in the core of the eurozone."

    Former Bundesbank head Karl Otto Pöhl, just after the 2010 program for Greece was approved:

    Pöhl: …a small, indeed a tiny, country like Greece, one with no industrial base, would never be in a position to pay back €300 billion worth of debt.

    SPIEGEL: According to the rescue plan, it’s actually €350 billion …

    Pöhl: … which that country has even less chance of paying back. Without a “haircut,” a partial debt waiver, it cannot and will not ever happen. So why not immediately? That would have been one alternative. The European Union should have declared half a year ago — or even earlier — that Greek debt needed restructuring.

    SPIEGEL: But according to Chancellor Angela Merkel, that would have led to a domino effect, with repercussions for other European states facing debt crises of their own.

    Pöhl: I do not believe that. I think it was about something altogether different… It was about protecting German banks, but especially the French banks, from debt write offs. On the day that the rescue package was agreed on, shares of French banks rose by up to 24 percent. Looking at that, you can see what this was really about — namely, rescuing the banks and the rich Greeks.
    Jul 6, 2015. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB maintains emergency loan cap [View news story]
    The 'overspending' is the structural deficit of the transfers of Greek earnings to their more competitive European neighbors.

    Greek public sector employment dropped over 25% from 2009 to 2014.
    Greece's fiscal deficit dropped from 15.6% of GDP to 2.5% in 2014 - unmatched anywhere.
    Greece retirement from one of lowest ages to one of highest in Europe post reforms, for one of the largest adjustments in Europe.

    http://bit.ly/1Ifylhy

    et cetera, et cetera, et cetera....

    Where do people get their information from these days on Greece, comic books?
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran to double oil exports if sanctions lifted [View news story]
    The Saudis see the end of the Era of Oil literally on the horizon (the date keeps getting pulled back, it used to be 2050, then 2030... now as soon as the early 2020s if they allow unconventional oil to proliferate). That's what's driving them and they've said as much.

    The issue is demand growth versus supply growth in a world which has experienced oil as overpriced for almost a decade - overpriced on a btu basis versus its alternatives. Natural gas' explosion after 2008 has had a massive impact on global energy, as has the dramatic reduction in cost for renewables, and renewables' emergence as energy security policy has also also changed the landscape.

    US shale displaced a lot of oil supply, and Saudis didn't want to be its next victim. With demand growth soft in China and oil still expensive on a btu basis, it makes nothing but sense for SA to produce to capacity at what is likely going to be a decreasing price environment moving forward...
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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