Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4. March industrial production misses expectations of 10% growth, rising just 8.9%. Retail sales, however, beats forecasts, rising 12.6% vs. 12.3% expected. Asia's taking a bit of a tumble, Shanghai -0.6%, and the Hang Seng -1.6%. The aussie (FXA) slides 0.6% to $1.0463. [View news story]
The replacement model, dear friend, is 3D printing, which is pushing the labor driven Chinese model into obsolescence, at the same time that the financialization of global commodities has created a huge glut of supply.
China was, however, quite smart to buy up as many real assets as it could while it sold its labor globally for next to nothing.
Precious metals continue to sell off sharply, gold (GLD) -4% to $1,440/oz., the lowest level in about 2 years. Off 6.7% to $24.58, silver's (SLV) back to fall 2010 levels. [View news story]
That giant 'whooshing' sound you are hearing is the sound of global wealth moving into dollar denominated assets. Think about what that means for gold, if you will. Then consider what it took for gold to break $1,900. And while you're at it check out Gold's futures chain. If you don't think gold is a trade like any other, I suspect you will be quite disappointed with your 'investment' results. Global wealth is far more fungible than any individual product, and real wealth is generated by diversifying your asset base.
The real issue with gold bugs is how they completely misunderstand the expansion of the monetary base in the US while concurrently watching nothing longer than a 10 year chart. It's sad, really.
Natural Gas: What A Difference A Year Makes - Analysis, Outlook, Statistics, Catalysts [View article]
dnpvd, $6 will strangle what's left of the economy. Besides which we are pretty much in the shoulder season, demand for gas for heating in decline and demand for generation unlikely to pick up.
"US generators used 16% less natural gas, or around 3.5 Bcf/d, to generate electricity in March compared with March 2012 levels, when prices were at 10-year lows, the US Energy Information Administration said Thursday." http://bit.ly/16W2wtu
It's "death bells" for commodities, says Citigroup, calling 2013 the year in which it's realized the commodity supercycle is over and a new era in which the relative performance of how "stuff" performs against each other and other assets is what matters. Specifically on oil, Citi calls Q1's move higher without merit and expects the recent downtick in prices to continue. [View news story]
"Can a metal go lower?"
pmiller, your comment assumes that demand for PMs is fixed and/or growing.
You are taking this assumption, and applying it to supply-demand, in order to support your belief that PMs and/or miners must bounce.
You may want to consider if your assumption is correct.
A slide in commodity prices turns into a rout: GLD -3.2%, SLV -4.2%, USO -3%, Copper (JJC) -2.2%. At $1,506/oz., gold is threatening a $1,400 handle for the first time in nearly 2 years. After an early bounce, stocks move to session lows, the S&P 500 -0.7%. The long bond gains three-quarters of a full point, its yield down to a 2013 low of 2.93%. Update at 11:05: Now off 4.3%, gold slips below $1,500. [View news story]
Folks looking at the 10 year chart are buying from folks looking at a 30 year chart.
Dish Network (DISH) CEO Charlie Egren has reportedly approached Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) about a possible merger with T-Mobile. Deutsche Telekom might have interest, according to the report, once it closes the T-Mobile/MetroPCS (PCS) merger. Egren made his approach prior to April 10 when Deutsche improved its bid for MetroPCS. [View news story]
Satellite and for that matter entrenched cable operators are faced with tough competition from the tmobile phone + internet + tv companies like Verizon. I think Dish is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks: getting together with TMobile isn't necessarily a bad idea from where they sit, and it may not be a bad idea for TMo either.
The number of oil rigs drilling in the U.S. rose for the third straight week, rising by 30 to 1,387 and capping the biggest three-week advance in more than a year, according to Baker Hughes' weekly rig count. Gas rigs also gained, rising by two to 377 from the lowest level since 1999 last week. [View news story]
I don't know.... producers have been migrating rigs to oil for a while now. In the face of weak global demand, I suspect it has only been a matter of time before we saw a pullback in crude pricing.
H-P (HPQ) Moonshot servers featuring AMD's low-power Kyoto CPU will arrive in 2H13. H-P praises AMD's GPU expertise, which it thinks makes Kyoto well-suited for video/graphics-centric tasks. Also arriving in 2H are servers using Intel's (INTC) next-gen Avoton Atom CPUs - the first Moonshot systems use Centerton Atom CPUs. Meanwhile, ARM-based CPUs will be provided by Texas Instruments (TXN - PR), AppliedMicro (AMCC - PR), and Calxeda - H-P talks up the inclusion of a DSP in TI's Keystone ARM processor. [View news story]
A good reminder that AMD's competitive advantage lies in their GPU.
On April 8, Clearwire (CLWR) received an offer from a "strategic buyer" to buy spectrum leases "generally located in large markets that cover approximately 5 billion MHz-POP" for a price of $1B-$1.5B, less the present value of the leases. Clearwire, which made the disclosure in a new 14A, says it will evaluate the offer. The disclosure comes on a day when Bloomberg reports Dish Network, whose $3.30/share offer for Clearwire remains outstanding, approached Deutsche Telekom about possibly merging with T-Mobile USA. CLWR +2.5% AH to $3.34. [View news story]
Considering services and spectrum, I think I like the idea of Tmobile-Dish more than TMo-MetroPCS....
Gold miners (GDX -4.5%) are getting destroyed as gold prices cross into bear territory. Capitulation, if it’s here, would mean a true bottom in price, and Tocqueville Gold Fund's John Hathaway says that's what we’re approaching; he sees strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in mining shares - "a contrarian's dream scenario." [View news story]
The Cyprus gold sale rumor has amazing stickiness.
Cyprus has denied it but the denial has been vastly under-reported compared to the initial rumor:
Fixed-income may not be being given away as it was in 2010, but there's still value, says Jeff Gundlach, scoffing at talk of a bond bubble. "Raise your hand" if you own Treasurys for yourself or a client, he asked a room full of advisors (none went up). Bonds are not "over-owned" in the U.S., he says, showing cash and fixed income make up a higher percentage of household financial assets in other countries. [View news story]
More from Gundlach: Bond indexing has been a wonderful strategy for many years, but now the well-followed indexes (BND, AGG) have too short of a duration and are overloaded with Treasurys. The value is in non-traditional sectors like emerging markets (EMB), non-agency MBS, bank loans (BKLN), and global high yield (GHYG). [View news story]
Sure, BKLN and EMB have better 'value' (and yield for that matter) than AGG and BND but you pay for it in risk.
It really depends on what you are trying to do....
I don't know which version you abide by, but my understanding is that without Russian support the Greek mainland was toast to the Nazis during the War, and it was mostly after the West proved successful that conflict with the pro-Russian forces developed. The resistance was funded and organized in its infancy almost entirely by pro-Russian groups - if you wanted to fight the Nazis, you worked with the commies.
Fundamentally, this is the underpinning of the of the Communist Party in mainland Greece - and why it still exists and has strength - and coupled with a shared religious heritage - in part - via the Orthodox Christian Church, Greeks have always had one eye on Russia.
Putin has vacationed on several occasions in Greece by the way.
It is only really in more recent history - let's call it since the fall of the USSR - that they turned more intently to the West. Cyprus for the most part followed where Greece led, up until recently - let's call it entrance into the EU - since it had needed all the allies it could get.
I think observers in the West vastly underestimate the speed and will with which Cyprus and Greece for that matter would embrace a Russian 'savior' should one appear with terms acceptable.
The missing piece in the Cyprus puzzle is that Cyprus has tremendous geopolitical significance. There is, unfortunately, no way to monetize this without threats and posturing, but it is there.
The second point observers miss is how significant an impact any move of Cyprus will have on Greece. The countries are far closer ideologically, politically, and culturally than many observers seem to gather. No matter what Cyprus does, it will have an impact on Greece's trajectory, including staying within the EU.
Monetizing its resources is not going to make the difference here. What may instead make the difference is indeed the threat of exit and the embrace of Cyprus by someone - anyone - else. For Europe, and for that matter for the US as well - the cost of losing control of Cyprus' geopolitical position and regulatory environment is far greater than 15b Euros.
With Russia awash in cheap natural gas, Gazprom is leading a push to massively expand the use of the fuel in vehicles. A 1998 Lada sedan can drive 140 miles on as little as 120 rubles ($3.80) of natural gas, or around the cost of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. The Toyota Prius would need three gallons to make the trip. Problems abound, though, including a lack of filling stations and fears of the cars blowing up. [View news story]
Power is off by somewhere between 2-5% and range is made up by the ludicrous savings versus the gas alternative.
Chinese Q1 GDP growth disappoints, rising 7.7% Y/Y vs. 8% expected, and slowing from 7.9% in Q4. March industrial production misses expectations of 10% growth, rising just 8.9%. Retail sales, however, beats forecasts, rising 12.6% vs. 12.3% expected. Asia's taking a bit of a tumble, Shanghai -0.6%, and the Hang Seng -1.6%. The aussie (FXA) slides 0.6% to $1.0463. [View news story]
China was, however, quite smart to buy up as many real assets as it could while it sold its labor globally for next to nothing.
Precious metals continue to sell off sharply, gold (GLD) -4% to $1,440/oz., the lowest level in about 2 years. Off 6.7% to $24.58, silver's (SLV) back to fall 2010 levels. [View news story]
The real issue with gold bugs is how they completely misunderstand the expansion of the monetary base in the US while concurrently watching nothing longer than a 10 year chart. It's sad, really.
Natural Gas: What A Difference A Year Makes - Analysis, Outlook, Statistics, Catalysts [View article]
"US generators used 16% less natural gas, or around 3.5 Bcf/d, to generate electricity in March compared with March 2012 levels, when prices were at 10-year lows, the US Energy Information Administration said Thursday." http://bit.ly/16W2wtu
Good luck...
It's "death bells" for commodities, says Citigroup, calling 2013 the year in which it's realized the commodity supercycle is over and a new era in which the relative performance of how "stuff" performs against each other and other assets is what matters. Specifically on oil, Citi calls Q1's move higher without merit and expects the recent downtick in prices to continue. [View news story]
pmiller, your comment assumes that demand for PMs is fixed and/or growing.
You are taking this assumption, and applying it to supply-demand, in order to support your belief that PMs and/or miners must bounce.
You may want to consider if your assumption is correct.
A slide in commodity prices turns into a rout: GLD -3.2%, SLV -4.2%, USO -3%, Copper (JJC) -2.2%. At $1,506/oz., gold is threatening a $1,400 handle for the first time in nearly 2 years. After an early bounce, stocks move to session lows, the S&P 500 -0.7%. The long bond gains three-quarters of a full point, its yield down to a 2013 low of 2.93%. Update at 11:05: Now off 4.3%, gold slips below $1,500. [View news story]
Dish Network (DISH) CEO Charlie Egren has reportedly approached Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) about a possible merger with T-Mobile. Deutsche Telekom might have interest, according to the report, once it closes the T-Mobile/MetroPCS (PCS) merger. Egren made his approach prior to April 10 when Deutsche improved its bid for MetroPCS. [View news story]
The number of oil rigs drilling in the U.S. rose for the third straight week, rising by 30 to 1,387 and capping the biggest three-week advance in more than a year, according to Baker Hughes' weekly rig count. Gas rigs also gained, rising by two to 377 from the lowest level since 1999 last week. [View news story]
H-P (HPQ) Moonshot servers featuring AMD's low-power Kyoto CPU will arrive in 2H13. H-P praises AMD's GPU expertise, which it thinks makes Kyoto well-suited for video/graphics-centric tasks. Also arriving in 2H are servers using Intel's (INTC) next-gen Avoton Atom CPUs - the first Moonshot systems use Centerton Atom CPUs. Meanwhile, ARM-based CPUs will be provided by Texas Instruments (TXN - PR), AppliedMicro (AMCC - PR), and Calxeda - H-P talks up the inclusion of a DSP in TI's Keystone ARM processor. [View news story]
On April 8, Clearwire (CLWR) received an offer from a "strategic buyer" to buy spectrum leases "generally located in large markets that cover approximately 5 billion MHz-POP" for a price of $1B-$1.5B, less the present value of the leases. Clearwire, which made the disclosure in a new 14A, says it will evaluate the offer. The disclosure comes on a day when Bloomberg reports Dish Network, whose $3.30/share offer for Clearwire remains outstanding, approached Deutsche Telekom about possibly merging with T-Mobile USA. CLWR +2.5% AH to $3.34. [View news story]
Gold miners (GDX -4.5%) are getting destroyed as gold prices cross into bear territory. Capitulation, if it’s here, would mean a true bottom in price, and Tocqueville Gold Fund's John Hathaway says that's what we’re approaching; he sees strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in mining shares - "a contrarian's dream scenario." [View news story]
Cyprus has denied it but the denial has been vastly under-reported compared to the initial rumor:
http://yhoo.it/10WoN5e
Fixed-income may not be being given away as it was in 2010, but there's still value, says Jeff Gundlach, scoffing at talk of a bond bubble. "Raise your hand" if you own Treasurys for yourself or a client, he asked a room full of advisors (none went up). Bonds are not "over-owned" in the U.S., he says, showing cash and fixed income make up a higher percentage of household financial assets in other countries. [View news story]
More from Gundlach: Bond indexing has been a wonderful strategy for many years, but now the well-followed indexes (BND, AGG) have too short of a duration and are overloaded with Treasurys. The value is in non-traditional sectors like emerging markets (EMB), non-agency MBS, bank loans (BKLN), and global high yield (GHYG). [View news story]
It really depends on what you are trying to do....
Why Cyprus Must Leave The Euro [View article]
Fundamentally, this is the underpinning of the of the Communist Party in mainland Greece - and why it still exists and has strength - and coupled with a shared religious heritage - in part - via the Orthodox Christian Church, Greeks have always had one eye on Russia.
Putin has vacationed on several occasions in Greece by the way.
It is only really in more recent history - let's call it since the fall of the USSR - that they turned more intently to the West. Cyprus for the most part followed where Greece led, up until recently - let's call it entrance into the EU - since it had needed all the allies it could get.
I think observers in the West vastly underestimate the speed and will with which Cyprus and Greece for that matter would embrace a Russian 'savior' should one appear with terms acceptable.
Why Cyprus Must Leave The Euro [View article]
The second point observers miss is how significant an impact any move of Cyprus will have on Greece. The countries are far closer ideologically, politically, and culturally than many observers seem to gather. No matter what Cyprus does, it will have an impact on Greece's trajectory, including staying within the EU.
Monetizing its resources is not going to make the difference here. What may instead make the difference is indeed the threat of exit and the embrace of Cyprus by someone - anyone - else. For Europe, and for that matter for the US as well - the cost of losing control of Cyprus' geopolitical position and regulatory environment is far greater than 15b Euros.
With Russia awash in cheap natural gas, Gazprom is leading a push to massively expand the use of the fuel in vehicles. A 1998 Lada sedan can drive 140 miles on as little as 120 rubles ($3.80) of natural gas, or around the cost of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. The Toyota Prius would need three gallons to make the trip. Problems abound, though, including a lack of filling stations and fears of the cars blowing up. [View news story]