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kmi

kmi
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  • Eyes on Greece as leaders meet in Brussels [View news story]
    If you read economist literature, the programs are indeed regarded as bad policy. The political journals are the ones praising them.
    As for primary surplus, think about what that means before assuming the program 'is working' especially with regard to the repayment schedule.
    As to Germany, it conducts some 7B Euro of business with Greece. Amongst the dozens of reasons why Germany needs Greece, virtually every major German entity has exposure, Greece effectively helps depress the value of the Euro to improve German export prices, etc etc, things ddiscussed repeatedly here and elsewhere.

    Further, I have consistently been a fan of Greece exiting the Euro for its own benefit, but any kind of astute analysis, which eludes you, has proven time and again that is the least likely outcome.

    Frankly, it is clear you have not followed the events closely, and are blindly following random partisan motivated ideology hoping it will make you money. Good luck with that.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe stocks fall after Greek talks collapse [View news story]
    You must lose a lot of money. Your analysis is pretty consistently political and uninformed.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe stocks fall after Greek talks collapse [View news story]
    What is looking increasingly likely is that no deal will be agreed to before Greece runs into repayment issues sometime in March. The Eurozone finance ministers appear to want to put Greece into a corner and see what happens.

    Greece will then most likely follow where California has led and start issuing IOUs - or some kind of parallel currency. And still be in the EZ. And the can will keep rolling.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek financing talks break down [View news story]
    I can give you part of an answer:

    Japan prints, and prints a lot. Under the current finance minister it has expanded its printing even more in an attempt to generate inflation. The Japanese can do this as they control their own currency, whereas the Greeks do not. Printing is therefore not an option, and neither is intentionally devaluing. So when Greece records a negative balance of trade it effectively works out as the country becoming poorer, while for Japan it doesn't work that way, since they can simply print more Yen.
    Feb 16, 2015. 06:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek financing talks break down [View news story]
    I may have missed it, but SA would have been well advised to link the OP-ED written by Varoufakis in the NYT.

    http://nyti.ms/1MrXL0D

    That said, I'd suggest Greece isn't confrontational, Greece is consistent. Greece has repeatedly and regularly laid its stakes, and it went into a meeting where the only option laid out was... the current programs.

    Varoufakis, in the NYT op-ed: " I am convinced that we have one option only: to shun any temptation to treat this pivotal moment as an experiment in strategizing and, instead, to present honestly the facts concerning Greece’s social economy, table our proposals for regrowing Greece, explain why these are in Europe’s interest, and reveal the red lines beyond which logic and duty prevent us from going.

    The “extend and pretend” game that began after Greece’s public debt became unserviceable in 2010 will end. No more loans — not until we have a credible plan for growing the economy in order to repay those loans, help the middle class get back on its feet and address the hideous humanitarian crisis. No more “reform” programs that target poor pensioners and family-owned pharmacies while leaving large-scale corruption untouched."

    The entirety of his piece is extremely interesting and enlightening and I encourage SA readers to review it.
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    Thanks for that link.... sounded like they basically told Greece "it's our ball, you can't play until you SAY it's our ball, then maybe we'll let you in the game"
    Feb 16, 2015. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    One wonders if liquidity may be withdrawn not in its entirety, but just enough to create a crisis.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    Sakelaris, Greece needed a crisis - any crisis, this crisis - in order to fix the horribly broken regulatory regime which is incredibly uncompetitive vis a vis every other Eurozone nation. Greece will continue to be in crisis until the regulatory regime is fixed. Until then, Greece will continue to export more capital than it imports, while being a member of a currency union it does not control which will restrict its ability to devalue/print.

    Greece needs to become a favorable location for business investment. Right now, no one, not even the locals, want to start businesses in the country. The problem was never the 'lead in exports' since Greece and other entrants into the EZ were recipients of grants that should have leveled the playing field.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    Haha that's good! And probably accurate...
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    "Greece already got a bailout quite recently .."

    Really?

    Can you please elaborate on the debt quantities before and after said 'bailout'? Or at what point Greece actually failed to make bond payments?
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC voters getting itchy trigger fingers [View news story]
    If it wasn't clear I'm a fan of Fed's current actions as well as Bernanke's guidance. You cite a half dozen reasons why the Fed should hike there are also a half dozen why it shouldn't. I have no idea why a 'token' increase of 25bps should be on the table just so it can be taken back off. I continue to expect no hike till '16 at best and have positioned accordingly...
    Feb 11, 2015. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count down 87 units in 10th straight week of losses [View news story]
    vikulin: your comment pretty much expanded on what I was saying. Not sure if that was your intent or if you thought my position was different.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC voters getting itchy trigger fingers [View news story]
    That's a fair reply Tao but are you suggesting we are replicating exactly the Great Depression in both the economy's performance as well as Fed actions? I understand 25bp isn't 100bp, I also understand this isn't 1931 and that the Fed ignored the commodity bubble inflating over the last decade and is also ignoring the commodity bubble deflating over the last year.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count down 87 units in 10th straight week of losses [View news story]
    I'll jump in here and point out that US shale has effectively displaced Nigerian sweet and Venezuelan imports. Both countries under severe oil price pressure, both countries desperate to take up any slack left by US shale. I get that investors looking to go long oil are looking very closely at US shale because they've decided that the US is indeed the marginal barrel, but that may no longer be the case with US producers profitable under $50 andoil country governments in dire straits to keep their budgets balanced.

    So I'll suggest trading the commodity on technicals and the producers on fundamentals right now, because playing fundamentals on crude right now is just a bad idea.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC voters getting itchy trigger fingers [View news story]
    The problem with Tao Jaxx's comment is that the Fed is looking at the Great Depression for clues on how to proceed, and what he is suggesting is considered one of the biggest mistakes the Fed made in that era. The current Fed likely doesn't want to go down in history as the one who replicated the errors of the past and will err on the side of safety.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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