kmi

kmi
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  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan  [View news story]
    It's less likely about Djoesselboem and more about the IMF and EC.

    If you want a billion euro bailout, you talk to EG, if you want a billion euro haircut, that would be the IMF's job.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan  [View news story]
    You seem to, and I'm talking to you, not them.
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan  [View news story]
    There was a plan and it was outlined verbally with the written document meant to be submitted at the Wednesday meeting.

    As to the rest of your comment, they've proposed cutting the gaps with tax increases but haven't had those proposals well received...

    "Athens’ final counterproposal to its trio of bailout monitors would re-impose many of the large-scale corporate taxes and pension contributions that creditors demanded be stripped out amid concern it would plunge Greece into a deeper recession... In addition, it would raise employer contributions to Greece’s main pension fund by 3.9 per cent and would more slowly implement measures to raise the country’s retirement age to 67 and “replace” rather than phase out a special “solidarity grant” to poorer pensioners."
    http://bit.ly/1CYxn7M
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan  [View news story]
    "The reality is that Greece has been so poorly run that it finds itself in a position that the only available external financing is from international workout funds or rates exceeding 10%. "

    Uhhh... so? Germany's been there 8 times since 1800, more than Greece at 5.

    "It's purely down to what the ECB/Germans think is the least bad outcome for the rest of Europe"

    Right! A negotiated outcome where they take haircuts, maintain control and the Eurozone maintains credibility, or a hard default where they take haircuts, lose control, and the Eurozone loses all credibility....

    Haircuts to the left of me, haircuts to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle with you....
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan  [View news story]
    ^^ Definitely not realistic, but you've been wrong on Greece with a consistency that's been awesome to behold, so I wouldn't be surprised if you were wrong again.
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan  [View news story]
    Well you can believe Tricky... or reality:

    Austerity scale in Greece, compared to other nations:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9pcy

    Greece austerity gauge, government spending down 20%, way more than in any other EZ country:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9mO9

    Greek employment at 1985 levels:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9mOb

    Greek export growth failure under the current programs:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9n4s
    Jul 7, 2015. 11:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan  [View news story]
    I posted this elsewhere, but I'll put it here too... I think the Eurogroup is far less relevant than the Troika meeting tomorrow but....

    If you ask me, Tsipras is barking up the wrong tree.

    Greece is eligible for IMF guidance even while in arrears. What he should do, is whatever it takes to find the money to pay the IMF it's 1.5b euro in order to get out of arrears, and then apply to the IMF alone for a new program, let the IMF force the haircuts the ECB (and skip this month's 3.5b payment to ECB), apply any and every plan proposed by the IMF and call it a day.

    The IMF has clearly indicated it grasps the situation much better with its most recent releases.

    Greece is easily inside debt sustainability with some of the longest maturities and lowest rates worldwide, and would have no problem making the IMF whole after a ECB haircut.

    The Eurogroup will offer no debt haircuts. It's debatable if the ECB would cut off ELA if forced to take a haircut, but it's also likely that Greek collateral would no longer be junk in the event of a haircut. So.... it gets messy.
    Jul 7, 2015. 11:02 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece gets a new finance minister  [View news story]
    If you ask me, Tsipras is barking up the wrong tree.

    Greece is eligible for IMF guidance even while in arrears. What he should do, is whatever it takes to find the money to pay the IMF it's 1.5b euro in order to get out of arrears, and then apply to the IMF alone for a new program, let the IMF force the haircuts the ECB (and skip this month's 3.5b payment to ECB), apply any and every plan proposed by the IMF and call it a day.

    The IMF has clearly indicated it grasps the situation much better with its most recent releases.

    Greece is easily inside debt sustainability with some of the longest maturities and lowest rates worldwide, and would have no problem making the IMF whole after a ECB haircut.

    The Eurogroup will offer no debt haircuts. It's debatable if the ECB would cut off ELA if forced to take a haircut, but it's also likely that Greek collateral would no longer be junk in the event of a haircut. So.... it gets messy.
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran to double oil exports if sanctions lifted  [View news story]
    Oil has become more transparent in the last couple of years, not less, in particular as Dodd-Frank has come into play and banks have exited their commodities business. Like treasuries in the last year however, there's a ton of volatility and price obscurement by investors and traders who view it as an asset class and trading vehicle.
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals  [View news story]
    With the revisions in payrolls and this going on, plus China and (I bet) no deal on Iran, it's also debatable if we see rates raised....
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals  [View news story]
    Great charts:

    Austerity scale in Greece, compared to other nations:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9pcy

    Greece austerity gauge, government spending down 20%, way more than in any other EZ country:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9mO9

    Greek employment at 1985 levels:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9mOb

    Greek export growth failure under the current programs:
    http://bit.ly/1CY9n4s
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals  [View news story]
    ^^ This guy hasn't got a clue.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece to present new deal proposals  [View news story]
    For people following this, it is also notable that the heads of every major party in Greece issued a joint statement with the PM that Greece's goal was to remain in the EZ while reaching a viable long term agreement with its creditors.

    They took 'regime change' off the table. On a national, united front.

    http://bit.ly/1HI5whq
    http://reut.rs/1HKuwok

    If a deal is to be made, it will be made with this administration.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB maintains emergency loan cap  [View news story]
    Greece's branch of the ECB can print 20 Euro notes!
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB maintains emergency loan cap  [View news story]
    "You mean those same reforms other PIIGS country successfully implemented?"

    Greece will never be an export economy like Spain.
    Ireland was allowed to keep its corporate tax rate to keep the multinational corporate tax evasion scheme going as a backdoor bailout.

    The program for Greece is wrong for the country's economy, and Syriza proposed tax increases to close the budget gap (austerity, yes, it proposed a form of austerity!) but was informed that kind of austerity is not acceptable - it must spending cuts that it enacts.

    So yes, I precisely mean "those same reforms other PIIGS country successfully implemented".

    As for the drachma, Greek entrepreneurs have been going to Bulgaria - an EU country that is not on the Euro - buying passports and erecting businesses there. The drachma would bring many of them back. So yeah! Eat the drachma Greece!

    Hilarious.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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