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  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    mrdirt, I am seeing small businesses who are precisely in this category filling up industrial rental spaces. Not the parking lot at home depot.
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • European stocks fall after Greece delays payment [View news story]
    I'll take your comment seriously if you can accurately tell me when the last tranche of funds was received by Greece, how much of the 2012 bailout funds are left for Greece to receive and under what terms, and what percentage of a haircut Greece's official creditors took in its restructure of 2012.
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crunch time for Greece [View news story]

    When Syriza walked into the offices of the government in Feb, the previous admin had ripped everything from the offices down to the computers.

    Much of what they dealt with upon taking power was a total and complete lack of the bare essentials of what a government needs. Syriza was forced to backpedal on virtually everything because they were not in a position to negotiate. You can think its bollocks, but without any kind of clear understanding of what assets the Greek state actually had they did indeed need the time to get things in order.

    I agree the Troika never indicated a better agreement would arrive in 4 months, but the Troika did explicitly state that 'no change in terms would be available or debated until the current programs were completed' which almost implies that a successful completion of the program would indeed be met with a relaxation of some terms on some levels.

    But the end result of February was that Greece caved like it had on multiple occasions in the past, even with a government which came out swinging, and swinging hard. My perspective is that when Syriza blew over in Feb, the int'l assumption became that Greeks are always full of bluster and fury but no essence. Now that Syriza has had the time to settle in, we are seeing its essence, and the troika is finally taking them seriously, and finally doing real work.
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    In my primary business (rentals) I'm seeing strong rent growth, stronger tenant applicants, and lower vacancy than I've seen since '08. Although I agree no rate increase this year, it's definitely coming.

    Also seeing higher uptake of space amongst industrial tenants - i.e. businesses coming back online.
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crunch time for Greece [View news story]
    "The Troika position has been basically unchanged since Syriza took power and reopened the talks "

    This is not true. The troika has backpedaled recently in several very significant ways. The most interesting of which has been the acknowledgement that the matter is a political one, not an economic one, in contrast to earlier statements from troika reps as well as political reps (notably Merkel herself).
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece skipping IMF bond payment tomorrow [View news story]
    Hi Wispokerguy, everything in your comment is wrong, except for "Ireland is recovering. Spain has exhibited solid growth."

    Best Regards.
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece skipping IMF bond payment tomorrow [View news story]
    "I suppose this gives ordinary Greeks another 26 days to withdraw any money left in Greek bank accounts."

    You mean "I guess this gives Carre Four, Ikea, Praktiker, DB, Vodaphone, et al another 26 days to withdraw any money left in their Greek investments" right?

    Or do you seriously believe the "ordinary Greek" flies to Switzerland on a whim for their ski vacation and to stash their cash when over 25% are unemployed?
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece skipping IMF bond payment tomorrow [View news story]
    The size of the debt isn't the issue. The reform agenda is. Greece could potentially pay its debts with a larger economy, increased GDP, full employment... But the reform agenda promoted by its lenders is all about reducing the size of the economy in hopes of creating some magical surplus that will go to paying the debt. And combining this magically created surplus by increasing sales tax and reducing wages more than the 40% they've already been reduced.

    So it isn't debt at this time that's the issue and the Greek government has said as much. Talks are breaking down over and over again over the reform agenda. Haircuts have almost never at ALL been mentioned, and have only started appearing in the reports lately because the creditors are sticking to austerity. A debt haircut will be inevitable alongside austerity.

    In the end, the creditor intransigence and insistence of destroying what's left of the tourism portion of the economy which officially accounts for over 15% of GDP (likely much higher) by pushing VAT up 4% and other such completely asinine measures will result in precisely what they are purportedly attempting to avoid.
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crunch time for Greece [View news story]
    Don't forget that June is a month of significant tax collection for Greece. It is highly likely that Greece will make it into July, while making payments.

    A default to the IMF is not immediately a default under ISDA, and may not qualify one by credit agencies who have already downgraded Greece as far as they can.

    ELA is the most important issue going and ECB has suggested it'll draw the strings if guided by the political side to do so, ceding authority.

    ELA was tightened on the financial side in the Cyprus case causing capital controls, not the political side.
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deal or no deal, that is the question [View news story]
    The Syriza government has engaged on a very strong program of clarifying the exact fiscal situation of Greece.

    Prior to Syriza accounting has been held in various places and in various ways, including by pen and paper... a complete accounting of all the assets of the government has been undertaken by the current administration in addition to a modernization of accounting procedures. The complete lack of transparency and disappearing books and ledger entries is being eliminated, for the first time, in what was thought to be a modern state with modern practices.

    Syriza is 'finding' money as it undertakes a modernization of the tax collection, accounting and financial management systems of the Greek state, which, amazingly, had never been done by the corrupt crony governments of its predecessors. In fact it hadn't been done precisely to enable all the shenanigans carried out by them. That day is over.

    Finding the money is no accident, it's part of a coherent and an intentional process.
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deal or no deal, that is the question [View news story]
    A comment suggesting Greece is 'reluctant' to tighten its belt indicates a complete lack of any investigation at all whatsoever into the fiscal reforms already undertaken by the Greek people.
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deal or no deal, that is the question [View news story]
    Tsipras has nothing to lose because unlike the "leaders" who preceded him he has no expectations of employment by the private sector post-politics, neither domestically as he is not a crony puppet nor internationally as a result of his visible and strong left leaning persuasion. So he represents well and truly the honest interests of the future of the country itself instead of a minority of elite interests.

    He has also consistently insisted upon repaying greece's debts and the only reason he can fail at doing so is because of misguided policies imposed by foreign actors upon a economy they clearly do not understand.
    Jun 4, 2015. 07:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece faces take-it-or-leave-it offer? [View news story]
    Not so long ago people wholly unfamiliar with the country were predicting revolt and revolution in Greece. If the crisis has proven anything at all it is the just how stable a democracy Greece is by comparison to almost all its neighbors. Even it's neighbor Italy has had twice the governments Greece has had since the second world War. Your opinion that it makes a good place for western nation bases is grounded in that.
    Jun 4, 2015. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Circuit breakers for Treasurys? [View news story]
    The volatility in treasuries has been amazing, used to move so much slower, reminds me of the difference between crude oil pre bubble in 08-09 and now.

    It's really looking like there's much more speculation in them than there used to be.
    Jun 3, 2015. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil, gold prices hurt by dollar's rise [View news story]
    tennvol, watch the demand curve and global -capacity-. Global oversupply is in the 2m brl range but capacity is -much- higher, which has really been destroying the credibility of those purporting that supply growth will be exceeded by demand growth. Supply growth - and more importantly capacity - has outpaced demand growth significantly and it's still there.

    Jun 3, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment