Seeking Alpha

kmi

kmi
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View kmi's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Oil pares losses after EIA supply data [View news story]
    "America is one of the few countries that treats oil as a true commodity; "

    A true commodity isn't taken off the market as an 'investment' that may earn a 'return' through financial derivative products. Nat gas is far more supply-demand driven than oil because it is piped and piped directly to demand. It isn't easy or cheap to liquefy and transport.

    Geopolitics -is- supply/demand.

    Oil is returning to fundamentals after having been artificially floated by financial derivatives for a decade.

    Its moves are far more transparent now than they have been in a long time.
    Feb 20, 2015. 05:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany rejects Greece's bailout extension request [View news story]
    Commenters in SA seem to pull things completely out of thin air.

    Here's a set of charts aggregated by at least one informed observer that will help educate the readers here, "Greek Reforms in Reality".

    http://bit.ly/1vKuLGZ
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece ignored; futures point to opening gains [View news story]
    Exiting the Euro would be a calamity in many ways. I am not suggesting that at all. My point was that commenters who suggest the Greek people will somehow suffer more than say Germans in a collapse of the EZ are pretty underinformed.

    I've stated my opinion elsewhere: I expect the outcome to be that the Troika will allow Greece to reach impasse when it runs out of money and that Greece will get creative at that point - either by issuing a co-currency in the form of IOUs - just as States in the US have done in the past, or by creating new types of financial instruments - and will keep the currency.
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece ignored; futures point to opening gains [View news story]
    FYI I actually lived for some years in the country, prior to the entrance to the EZ. Do you want to know what the defining feature of its entrance to the EZ has been?

    Access to loans. Prior to entrance it was mostly a cash economy. Which was also one reason so little taxes were paid. As anyone in business knows, cash businesses are the ones which people declare the least income in.

    Loans created tremendous momentum behind car sales (mostly of European origin) and property investment and building. An exit from the EZ would primarily effect access to loans, which, go figure, have pretty much not existed for years anyway. Every good currently obtained from its European partners is replaceable by goods from any number of non-EZ nations.

    So yeah. The impact wouldn't be significant to the average Greek. On the other hand, EZ partners would get hammered by debt haircuts and a loss of a trading partner. I simply can't see it your way, no matter how hard I try.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece ignored; futures point to opening gains [View news story]
    Ukraine's GDP is 3/4 of Greece's.

    <Shrug>
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece ignored; futures point to opening gains [View news story]
    You have completely misread the events. Greece is not bluffing, Varoufakis has explicitly stated as much. Syriza has the support of the vast majority of Greeks in its actions and the populace is prepared for the consequences of the current actions.

    Further, Greece's hand is not weak at all. In every case an EXIT from the Euro would be accompanied by LESS pain, not more. That people misunderstand this boggles my mind. I have assets in Greece predating Greece's entry into the EZ and would be absolutely ecstatic in the event of a Grexit. The truth is that Greeks are looking to stay in the Euro in spite of the associated pain.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece ignored; futures point to opening gains [View news story]
    The most likely outcome of the Greece talks is... no outcome.

    EZ finance ministers appear to be content to wait it out. They have explicitly stated that Greece has to come hat in hand to their door and beg for a continuation of the existing programs, which is pretty much the exact opposite of what the Greek government wants to do.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eyes on Greece as leaders meet in Brussels [View news story]
    If you read economist literature, the programs are indeed regarded as bad policy. The political journals are the ones praising them.
    As for primary surplus, think about what that means before assuming the program 'is working' especially with regard to the repayment schedule.
    As to Germany, it conducts some 7B Euro of business with Greece. Amongst the dozens of reasons why Germany needs Greece, virtually every major German entity has exposure, Greece effectively helps depress the value of the Euro to improve German export prices, etc etc, things ddiscussed repeatedly here and elsewhere.

    Further, I have consistently been a fan of Greece exiting the Euro for its own benefit, but any kind of astute analysis, which eludes you, has proven time and again that is the least likely outcome.

    Frankly, it is clear you have not followed the events closely, and are blindly following random partisan motivated ideology hoping it will make you money. Good luck with that.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe stocks fall after Greek talks collapse [View news story]
    You must lose a lot of money. Your analysis is pretty consistently political and uninformed.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe stocks fall after Greek talks collapse [View news story]
    What is looking increasingly likely is that no deal will be agreed to before Greece runs into repayment issues sometime in March. The Eurozone finance ministers appear to want to put Greece into a corner and see what happens.

    Greece will then most likely follow where California has led and start issuing IOUs - or some kind of parallel currency. And still be in the EZ. And the can will keep rolling.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek financing talks break down [View news story]
    I can give you part of an answer:

    Japan prints, and prints a lot. Under the current finance minister it has expanded its printing even more in an attempt to generate inflation. The Japanese can do this as they control their own currency, whereas the Greeks do not. Printing is therefore not an option, and neither is intentionally devaluing. So when Greece records a negative balance of trade it effectively works out as the country becoming poorer, while for Japan it doesn't work that way, since they can simply print more Yen.
    Feb 16, 2015. 06:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek financing talks break down [View news story]
    I may have missed it, but SA would have been well advised to link the OP-ED written by Varoufakis in the NYT.

    http://nyti.ms/1MrXL0D

    That said, I'd suggest Greece isn't confrontational, Greece is consistent. Greece has repeatedly and regularly laid its stakes, and it went into a meeting where the only option laid out was... the current programs.

    Varoufakis, in the NYT op-ed: " I am convinced that we have one option only: to shun any temptation to treat this pivotal moment as an experiment in strategizing and, instead, to present honestly the facts concerning Greece’s social economy, table our proposals for regrowing Greece, explain why these are in Europe’s interest, and reveal the red lines beyond which logic and duty prevent us from going.

    The “extend and pretend” game that began after Greece’s public debt became unserviceable in 2010 will end. No more loans — not until we have a credible plan for growing the economy in order to repay those loans, help the middle class get back on its feet and address the hideous humanitarian crisis. No more “reform” programs that target poor pensioners and family-owned pharmacies while leaving large-scale corruption untouched."

    The entirety of his piece is extremely interesting and enlightening and I encourage SA readers to review it.
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    Thanks for that link.... sounded like they basically told Greece "it's our ball, you can't play until you SAY it's our ball, then maybe we'll let you in the game"
    Feb 16, 2015. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    One wonders if liquidity may be withdrawn not in its entirety, but just enough to create a crisis.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe shares dip ahead of Greece, EU meeting [View news story]
    Sakelaris, Greece needed a crisis - any crisis, this crisis - in order to fix the horribly broken regulatory regime which is incredibly uncompetitive vis a vis every other Eurozone nation. Greece will continue to be in crisis until the regulatory regime is fixed. Until then, Greece will continue to export more capital than it imports, while being a member of a currency union it does not control which will restrict its ability to devalue/print.

    Greece needs to become a favorable location for business investment. Right now, no one, not even the locals, want to start businesses in the country. The problem was never the 'lead in exports' since Greece and other entrants into the EZ were recipients of grants that should have leveled the playing field.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,267 Comments
4,173 Likes