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  • IMF: 2012 Greek bailout didn't work  [View news story]
    ...and the debt ratio would continue to be unsustainable into 2030... no typo, 2030.
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity  [View news story]
    Reality check:

    The liquidity crisis was artificially created by the ECB. The solvency crisis was created by the liquidity crisis, and it all started 6 months ago when the ECB, confronted with a Syriza electoral win, declared Greek collateral unsuitable and force placed Greece on ELA life support.
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity  [View news story]
    Can't blame him. If the Greeks choose more austerity over the pro growth platform he is promoting there really isn't much point for him to stay.

    Besides, the economy will just relapse and recycle into another bailout and he'd be better off leaving the country like everyone else.
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone rejects Greece's bailout extension request  [View news story]
    Well, it's more like Eurogroup and Merkel have decided the Syriza administration, democratically elected in a sovereign nation, is not suitable and has decided to have them replaced.

    And it was hardly Tsipras who forced the default.... Syriza took power on a renegotiation platform, and the ECB immediately stopped taking Greek government debt as collateral for loans. As in, it immediately creates pressure on a newly elected government by restricting access to money. Which immediately starts strangling the economy. And simply upped the pressure from there.

    Default occurred as a result of the ECB's decision to end access to ELA. ELA could easily have been extended at least until after the referendum but simply was not. Had the Eurogroup chosen to do so it could also have provided access to 7b of funds that were part of its 2012 restructure. But instead it withheld any of the bailout funds - which were earmarked to pay Troika loans, since August 2014. The ECB asphyxiated the economy and forced a default on loans to itself - and made it look like it was Tsipras - fantastic politicking there.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece bailout expires as deadline passes  [View news story]

    Europe is likely well ring fenced from financial fallout, that's not the risk at all. Grexit risk is that a clear path and method of Eurozone exit will be delineated.

    Cyprus gave us the first taste of what happens when a peripheral nation encounters a solvency issue in the Euro area, and Greece has so far followed along where Cyprus led. Next time a debt crisis arises, there will be a clear path to currency exit, and the irrevocability of the Euro will have ended.

    This is why markets are mostly shrugging the Greece events off - financial impact appears to be muted. The political implications are not however.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece bailout expires as deadline passes  [View news story]
    I'm sorry, but how do you correlate a 25% contraction in GDP, over 25% unemployment, and a 5 year depression with "Greeks had opportunities to choose a better path but they chose to believe the promises of a bunch of socialists"?

    That the economy needs growth oriented policies is without question, austerity has been debunked everywhere, even in Europe which has now embarked on its own QE program.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece bailout expires as deadline passes  [View news story]
    The process doesn't take any longer than in the US with some places taking somewhat longer to report than others.

    Votes in Greece are televised and counted in the same way as in the US....

    I doubt however that Syriza would call elections immediately and that a new election could possibly conclude before the end of summer.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece bailout expires as deadline passes  [View news story]
    The process of voting in Greece is arcane and tedious, in tandem with an archaic technology. Proof of voting eligibility is the primary reason. In response to your question:

    1) No, they cannot. Merkel and Djoesselboem have pretty clearly made the referendum a precursor to continuation of talks. It is pretty apparent that should Greeks vote YES the intent is to force regime change around that vote. If nothing else, consider it a trial run for the event the Syriza administration actually calls elections.

    2) Greece will have no issue with international monitors should anyone feel the need to do as much. The process of voting however is so strict that I doubt anyone would find it necessary.

    I'd also suggest that with the referendum in play, and the efforts from the Eurogroup side to force the Syriza administration to collapse, so as to pursue negotiations with another government, we may be looking at severe damage to what's left of the economy under capital controls in the timeframe all that will take to play out. But that doesn't seem to be on anyone's agenda so I guess that's that.

    Capital controls will destroy tourism, right in the middle of high season, the 2nd largest source of GDP in the economy.
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone rejects Greece's bailout extension request  [View news story]
    With the 2012 ESM program having expired - as I understand it - neither side is beholden to the terms of that agreement/program anymore. This seems to be the Big Deal no one is talking about.

    Greece did, today, apply for a new program under ESM, but was summarily having failed.

    The referendum appears moot at this point since the agreement being voted on cannot technically be approved by the creditor side, with Greece no longer being in the program, and with every effort to extend the deadline rejected.

    Also, Merkel's position that the referendum must proceed before any discussion of a new program appears to be a position taken in hopes of a YES vote, and subsequent regime change to a government more pliable to Germany's interests, and not some kind of implicit extension of the current program.

    I can't understand how a teleconference tomorrow can change any of this.
    Jun 30, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece threatens to sue Europe  [View news story]

    Amusing, petulant, but ultimately nonsense. Good luck to you.
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece threatens to sue Europe  [View news story]
    As per usual, looking at figures doesn't address the real deficiencies of the economy, or have any bearing in the realities of the situation.

    Are you concurrently, for example, suggesting the Greek economy is as efficient and productive as Sweden's? Or that the regulatory regime is comparable?

    This too has been the flawed methodology employed by the Troika's programs, which the IMF has admitted to.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece threatens to sue Europe  [View news story]
    "We want to be immortal and rich, without effort. Will he fulfill those desires?"

    Intentionally facetious, you know what I meant.

    "are not failures of its creditors to save it or make it wonderful."

    If the intent is to ensure the future cohesion and success of the EZ then the EZ must by necessity find solutions to its current crop of problems. Your attempt to suggest that the Greek administration expects anyone at all to provide Greece with a 'wonderful economy' is flawed. Syriza has consistently pointed out it looks to be solvent, sustainable, and end the bailout cycle. It rejects, as do most reputable economists worldwide, that austerity is the path that will lead there. It seeks a pro-growth program to develop a sustainable future.

    Your comment horribly confuses what is going on, with what you think is going on only in your own imagination.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece threatens to sue Europe  [View news story]
    Those figures are from 2014: post austerity, post GDP contraction, post depression with regard to Greece, and are of little use.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece threatens to sue Europe  [View news story]
    "Greece already defaulted on its private sector debt. They therefore lost all access to debt markets. They still had massive budget deficits. They could then have balanced their budget immediately, at whatever cost in slashed spending etc. Instead they went to the IMF and the ECB and asked for help. They are currently defaulting on that help."

    At the same time Greece was haircutting private sector debt in 2012, the official sector creditors were hoovering up Greece's debt at pennies on the dollar, and have yet to take any losses on principal. And, the ECB and the Eurogroup led the bailout. The IMF has explicitly said it was a failure that it didn't take the lead on Greece's bailout and didn't insist on significant haircuts across the board in direct contravention with every bailout it has ever participated in. The IMF has stated is handled its role in Greece's bailout poorly and that the other participants in it are wrong to refuse debt reduction.

    Most recently Lagarde reiterated it continues to stand ready to assist Greece should Greece not be in arrears to it.

    Greece is defaulting on the programs that have failed to turn it into a sustainable economy.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece threatens to sue Europe  [View news story]
    Tsipras explicitly said on EPT TV during a interview that he wouldn't step down to a YES. He may find reality encourages him to do so, but that isn't his intent currently.

    He, and Syriza, have consistently claimed the will and intent to fulfill the electorate's desires whatever they may be, and so far its been all about ending the crisis and engaging a pro-growth platform. There is no other credible anti-austerity figure in Greece right now to take his mantle.

    Papandreou is a mouthpiece for the oligarchs. He has been blatantly lying and spreading FUD to anyone who will listen. He should be ashamed of himself. He lied to get into power before and is doing it again. Will he once again tell us "oh sh*t, I didn't realize it was *this* bad! I can't do anything about it!" as soon as he is elected?

    Personally I don't think Tsipras overplayed his hand at all: he took a principled stand, followed his mandate, and when presented with an ultimatum he could not in good conscious sign, handed the decision over to his electorate in referendum. The deal offered by the Troika is horrible and will lead to another bailout inside 6 months. Papandreou wants to wrest control of the political leadership and bring it back into the oligarchs hands as he rides Greece right out of the EZ and back into the graft, corruption, and abuse of privilege of its pre-EZ days.

    Respectfully, I doubt many outside of Athens will vote yes.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment