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  • Greek crisis talks head into day two [View news story]
    Um.... scaring off the what? Perplexing comment.... But yes, Euro debt should be interesting....
    Jul 12, 2015. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran nuclear talks drag on [View news story]
    I don't know that we can call them last minute when they've been extended over and over...

    The failure to reach a deal reminds of the failure of Europe to reach a deal with Greece, but in this case Iran is a sovereign state that has been outside the fold of the Western economy for years.

    Negotiators should try and get a grasp on the fact that access to Western money in exchange for a loss in sovereignty isn't attractive pretty much.... anywhere.

    The policies of exclusion are creating stronger ties in the world ex-USA/Europe.
    Jul 12, 2015. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek crisis talks head into day two [View news story]
    It is quite unfortunate that Greeks so wholly dislike the notion of leaving the Euro. Tsipras felt his mandate included never risking Grexit and thus walked back his agenda in deference to Greek desire to stick with the Euro.

    A Euro exit for 5 years is very high risk. Should Greece take control of its reform agenda, and successfully grow the economy - highly likely by all accounts - the Eurozone will be dealt a severe blow to its credibility.

    Also, a clear path will have been blazed to the method by which other countries may choose Euro exit. The Euro, already revealed as not much more than a glorified currency peg, will likely appreciate to reflect that reality, and bond yields across the Eurozone should continue to diverge.
    Jul 12, 2015. 09:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek crisis talks head into day two [View news story]
    Meh. Greece is where it is under the guidance of the creditor austerity programs.
    Jul 12, 2015. 09:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek crisis talks head into day two [View news story]
    Things scaring off creditors are on the one hand the understanding that even under the current deal another bailout may well be needed since it's really just more austerity and doesn't imply the economy will grow - while the debt burden quite explicitly will thus worsening the debt-GDP - and this also is going hand in hand with the fact that the agreement explicitly requests acknowledgement of Greece's debt as unsustainable and likely in need of restructuring.

    On the other hand is that although Syriza accepted the majority of the creditors proposals, they did so by crossing their "red lines," so they have requested creditors do the same on several key issues. It will be very hard to get the creditor side to do - or more precisely, it will be very hard to get the *Eurogroup* to do so. The EC and the IMF seem to be on board, it is the Eurogroup which is pushing back.

    Add to that the realization that having failed to force regime change on Greece, the creditors face the prospect of implicitly acknowledging Syriza's legitimacy and allowing Syriza to move forward with running the country for the next few years.
    Jul 12, 2015. 09:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partial victory for bond insurers in Puerto Rico case [View news story]
    Fantastic comments here laterre.
    Jul 8, 2015. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    Every comment of yours that I debunk, you simply change topic, and make declarative statements as if they were fact.

    You clearly have a very tenuous grasp of what is going on outside of 'Greeks are profligate spenders!'

    Let me help:

    Their pre-2012 debt is important because, contrary to virtually every restructure in history, they exited the restructure owing more than when they entered it, in solidarity with EZ countries and in order to protect the EZ financial system.

    Greece already had an untenable debt to gdp (as a result of the treatment of its debt, which you can get a better handle on here:, and agreed to undergo Troika led reform to bring its ratio down, and in order to ensure repayment to Troika creditors. The austerity agenda subsequently failed by every metric, bringing its debt-gdp ratio higher as a result of a contracting economy and rising unemployment.

    And here we are, with your phenomenal comment that "Greece borrowed the money and they borrowed the money for a reason; they were broke."
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    "My bad!! I thought this fiscal irresponsibility started 20 years ago!! Who knew this is a recent, 5 month old development!!"

    It's ok to be wrong when you can admit it.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    Rope a Dope, since you seem to be so well informed, please advise as to the total burden of debt before Greece's 'bailout/restructure' in 2012, and immediately after, thanks.

    Also, can you elucidate to whom and by what mechanism Greece came to owe 350b?
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    Where have you been the last 5 months?

    The Syriza government took over with the existing bailout program already not working.

    From the IMF:

    " The 2014 primary fiscal balance fell short of the program target by
    1.5 percent of GDP. Moreover, the proposed reduction in the primary surplus targets from 3 percent of GDP in 2015 and 4.5 percent of GDP in 2016 and beyond to 1 percent of GDP in 2015, 2 percent in 2016, 3 percent in 2017, and 3.5 percent in 2018 onwards would add cumulatively about 7 percentage points of GDP to financing needs during 2015–18. Over the next three years, needs will be €13 billion more from this factor relative to the last review. "

    The Syriza admin proposed that with austerity failing, pro-growth policies would enable Greece to pay its debts, to which it encountered the intransigence of the ECB which force placed it into ELA. Which only made things worse.

    From someone more eloquent than myself:

    "The OECD estimate that the output gap in Greece is currently well over 10%. In plain English that means that those currently unemployed could be producing something useful and GDP could easily expand by at least 10% without generating any increase in inflation. (Greek inflation is currently around -2%.) That would not only be in the interests of Greece, but also in the interests of Greece’s creditors. It is a way of achieving the primary surpluses that the Troika wants without inflicting more pain. It is also absolutely undeniable that further austerity would tend to reduce GDP, just as past austerity has done. So everyone can be made better off by giving Greece the breathing space so that its economy can recover."

    There is no question that the Troika austerity policies caused the very budgetary shortfalls you discuss, and there is no question growth oriented policies would have - could have - very quickly fixed the problem.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    "Austerity" is a word very common in economics. Let me help you, from Wikipedia:

    "In economics, austerity is a set of policies with the aim of reducing government budget deficits. Austerity policies may include spending cuts, tax increases, or a mixture of both."
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    Rope a Dope:

    Feel free to enlighten us how it is "money previously borrowed."

    Also, please enlighten me as to where I am wrong in elucidating how Greece will be ejected from the EZ, outside of a blanket dismissal.

    Otherwise your comment is useless.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    "Europe’s leaders cannot show Greece the door because this is not stipulated in any treaty."

    Here is what will happen. No deal will mean no funds for Greece. No funds means Greece can't pay 3.5b Euro due the ECB July 20. Greece is in a liquidity crisis created by its central bank - the ECB - while the banks are still solvent. The ECB created the liquidity crisis by not increasing its mandated ELA based on Tsipras call for a referendum (a purely political motivation). That created the mess which ensured Greece was unable to pay the IMF 1.5b Euro July 30. But still, the banks are currently considered solvent.

    When Greece misses the payment to the ECB July 20, it will be insolvent.

    The ECB can use that as cover to cut off ELA entirely, which will necessarily end as a hard default.

    Let me repeat that:

    The ECB, cut off ELA in order to force Greece to miss a loan payment to the ECB, which will effectively end up forcing Greece into a hard default.

    That, friends, is what the Eurozone has come to. And therein lies the real drama: The Eurozone has shown that a politically unappealing nation state engaging in policy disapproved by the Eurogroup CAN INDEED BE EJECTED FROM THE EUROGROUP.

    Let that sink in.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    "Greeks they have still 30% higher average pensions (833 EUR)"

    You have a recent (as in, circa 2014) link for the figure? I'd love to see it.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece be in or out? [View news story]
    " have never appeared to have any sort of 'in this together' posture "

    It was all about "in this together" when the European banking system was saved by the sacrificial lamb Greece in 2010 and again in 2012. Now that Draghi's bazooka (the 1 trillion Euro ESM) is in play and legislation has been developed to ringfence the EZ from financial crisis it's all about "profligate spendthrift lazy".

    The bailout in 2012 doubled the debt, imposed austerity that created a worse debt to gdp, blew up unemployment, and now Greeks are somehow 'irresponsible'. It's been an awesome rewriting of history.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment