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kmi

kmi
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  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    ARG1, you misread the situation. With the Eurogroup now shutting Greece out, and with Syriza having already proven to the populace it fights for deal that is -not- kicking the can down the road, and that is *sustainable*, the reflection of events in Greece is that the deal offered by the Eurogroup will destroy what's left of the economy. The very actions the Eurogroup is now taking are reinforcing support for Tsipras and his party.

    Allowing Greece to get past June 30 with no deal is a mess for Eurogroup. Basically, the immediate effects are declines in European indexes as European entitites with interests in Greece take writedowns and writeoffs on their investments, and then there's 1.5 in debt to IMF and another 2.5 to the ECB in July that never gets paid.

    Had Eurozone ministers made a deal - as the two sides were close and a deal was very very possible - 7b of Euros remaining from the 2012 restructure could have gone to Greece from the Troika to make those 4b in payments to the.... uh.... Troika....

    There are sufficient tax receipts to continue paying pensioners with no problem once debt service is taken out of the equation and capital controls are enacted. So the drama continues.
    Jun 28, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    Considering how far he moved the ball, for one, while everyone was looking the other way. Considering how he's altered the agenda. Considering he is the only credible anti-austerity leader in Greece now that the Eurogroup made it a everything-or-nothing affair. Considering how all the pieces are falling in terms of dates, payments, and players, any notion that he hasn't outplayed the guys with full houses and flushes with his pair of deuces just doesn't give him the credit he deserves.

    I can't see Tsipras, Syriza, or Greece losing no matter how this plays out. The bailout offer on the table is worthless even if the Eurogroup backpeddles and re-offers it.

    The Eurogroup an market's 'indifference' will be the best Act in this drama. Perhaps if the slogan that Greece is immaterial to the markets and the EZ's interests hadn't been pounded by the Eurogroup itself things would have taken a different turn, but at every opportunity the Eurogroup has missed the opportunity to shore up the EZ, and reaffirm its commitment to itself as an entity. And there lies the coup de grace.
    Jun 27, 2015. 08:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    This has been a bit of masterful politicking by Tsipras who allowed the Eurogroup to overplay its hand to the point of delivering a coup de grâce on itself. Tsipras and the Greek people win in every scenario moving forward.
    Jun 27, 2015. 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    "As a result, there is no automatic mechanism to correct for overspending by Greece on imported goods and services. Either not understanding this fact, or refusing to accept it, the EU has chosen extreme austerity to accomplish the same goal. "

    I agree with this comment 100%.

    Unfortunately "institute a program of import duties" is not in keeping with the rules of the EZ/EMU so it wouldn't work while Greece is part of that.

    Greek economy pre-EU was largely microcapitalist and mercantilist and globalization and the nature and structure of the EZ rendered much of it uncompetitive and obsolete. It was apparent almost immediately as large low-cost European conglomerates entered the economy and vastly undercut domestic competition.

    What Greece needs is to leverage its assets - geopolitical location primarily, natural geography (ports), political stability - and redefine its position in the global economy.

    The assumption that devaluation and currency exit will magically lead to competitive exports that will address its trade balance issues is a fairy tale and has no basis in reality.
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    From http://bit.ly/1LcgRb8:

    Since 2009 the Greek state’s deficit has been reduced, in cyclically adjusted terms, by a whopping 20 per cent, turning a large deficit into a large structural primary surplus. Wages contracted by 37 per cent, pensions by up to 48 per cent, state employment by 30 per cent, consumer spending by 33 per cent and even the current account deficit by 16 per cent.
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece considering last-ditch proposals for creditors: WSJ [View news story]
    "Nations that honor their agreements should be given some debt relief"

    From the link in my comment above:

    "Since 2009 the Greek state’s deficit has been reduced, in cyclically adjusted terms, by a whopping 20 per cent, turning a large deficit into a large structural primary surplus. Wages contracted by 37 per cent, pensions by up to 48 per cent, state employment by 30 per cent, consumer spending by 33 per cent and even the current account deficit by 16 per cent."
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece considering last-ditch proposals for creditors: WSJ [View news story]
    Or, instead of buying the disinformation, you could actually follow what they are doing:

    http://bit.ly/1LcgRb8

    http://bit.ly/1Na2YJB
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    There's been tons of news about crackdowns on tax evasion: this comment is out of touch with reality. Just one example is that for the first time, TV channels are experiencing crackdowns for stealing power from the power authority.

    Most of the legislative process is in any event being stalled by the country's creditors who insist legislation must only be part of the debt resolution programs and not acted upon unilaterally by the government, thus tieing its hands and restraining it from acting.
    Jun 20, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    I don't doubt that there are actors pushing in that direction but the implication that Europe will could end up divided in two (North-South) as a result of the current issues is distant. What would have to happen is a complete breakdown of the existing agreements and rebuild from scratch which would probably take decades.
    Jun 20, 2015. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks end week on cautious note amid Greece uncertainty [View news story]
    Not only has Greece been actively suggesting it didn't want any more money - which even the briefest of mental effort would help elucidate that such a development would only make the debt-gdp ratio worse - but the rest of your comment is similarly either misinformed or diatribe.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudia Arabia set to pump maximum crude, analysts predict [View news story]
    Saudis see peak demand converging with supply growth creating a bleak longer term picture for oil.

    Most of oils biggest bulls cite oil's sheer ubiquity in consumer products, which I grant, but the fact is that the vast majority of actual consumption comes from its use in transportation and energy, two sectors which are weakening and will continue to do so at an ever increasing pace.

    And they aren't attempting to obscure their opinions at all, they've been pretty forward with them in fact.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    The point I made wasn't that it had no merit, but that it had no basis in reality. I don't disagree at all that it has merit.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    The EU isn't allowing Greeks to remove their Euros from the banks. The Greeks haven't any money left to withdraw. The money coming out is what's left of IKEA, Vodaphone, Praktiker, CarreFour and their brethren's deposits, being withdrawn to their home states.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's future hangs in the balance [View news story]
    The "progress" noted completely misses where the money came from and at what expense.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's future hangs in the balance [View news story]
    The creditors programs have resulted in a higher debt to GDP and an unsustainable debt burden which will absolutely continue to reduce the size of the economy and see the debt-GDP continue to spiral. This comment makes no sense.

    And the part about "election of a political party with an agenda which can easily destroy the country's economy and individual rights" exhibits an almost hilarious lack of knowledge of Greece's history.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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