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kmi

kmi
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  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    Oil up is pure speculative money.... not demand.....

    It's even in the SAlpha currents:

    "Speculators boosted their net-long position in crude by 21% during the seven days ended March 31, CFTC data show, the biggest percentage increase since March 2011. Short positions declined by the most in three months."
    Apr 6, 2015. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opinions vary widely on meaning of Iran deal for crude oil prices [View news story]
    One of the reasons/places we import Brent is the NE where it is cheaper to procure than domestic crude from the Gulf which must then be shipped to the NE. The pipelines and ships to do so economically don't exist for various reasons (including the Jones Act).
    Apr 4, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opinions vary widely on meaning of Iran deal for crude oil prices [View news story]
    There isn't agreement on the quantity of the oil, or the number of tankers but that there are tankers loaded with it is fact, as I said.

    Iran is not the EIA, and tracking Iranian oil production, sales and volume is not the same as tracking it in the USA. It's interesting how naive some of the comments are here. There are reports of tankers carrying Iranian crude mixing it in with other crudes to evade sanctions, turning off their ship transponders to avoid being tracked, all sorts of interesting things. So, really, if you are looking for exact numbers on Iranian oil.... good luck.
    Apr 3, 2015. 09:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opinions vary widely on meaning of Iran deal for crude oil prices [View news story]
    Oooooooh boy. So let me try and elucidate some of this for you:

    For one, you can start by delving into what it takes for a tanker ship to even enter a port: the documentation associated with that, the insurance, the certificates. You can't simply load a tanker ship with crude oil and sail into a port anywhere. Sanctions affect the insurance companies that insure the ships and cargoes. There aren't many companies that can escape sanctions and have the size and risk tolerance to do that. And I'm just getting started here.

    Not only that but I also find it pretty interesting how intensely Americans today feel that any report on any media anywhere can be a bald faced lie. The tankers loaded with crude have been around for a while and are a well documented fact.
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    As I said, there will be a fair amount of Iranian crude entering the market immediately for sure. To be more precise, those refineries already taking in Iranian oil have an upper end to their capacity and it is arguable that Iran's production can easily outstrip existing capacity. Meaning that after a sanctions lift, Iranian crude will have both an immediate impact as well as exerting an increasing pressure over time on price.
    Apr 2, 2015. 07:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    Garison, you need to read up on contrarian. There has been a massive flow of retail money into this so-called 'contrarian' trade. There's been some articles on the subject, such as this one over at FT:

    http://on.ft.com/1IWj8nV

    There has been pretty sustained and longterm buying into oil oriented positions. TDAmeritrade's investor movement index, for example, also confirms this:

    http://bit.ly/1IWj7QS
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    The problem with Iran isn't production or capacity it's that there aren't many refineries out there set up to refine Iranian sour. Iran has been selling throughout the sanctions but using some pretty drastic methods (stories of ship to ship transfers in the middle of the ocean). There absolutely -will- be Iranian capacity available in the event sanctions are lifted. The problem is there aren't many markets it can readily be sold into in the short term.
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    You're misunderstanding how the oil market works. It's not about 'jumping in' at all. The way oil moves around the world is pretty complicated and often doesn't have much to do with whether a market area is well supplied or not, or which crude product is primarily fed to said market area.

    Also, your test case of "US production falling 1m barrels" isn't accounting for anything happening in tandem. There are a lot of moving parts to the global energy market. Whether or not SA would choose to increase imports to the US in the face of declining US shale production, other countries most likely would. The way oil is financed and hedged often finds oil being delivered into fully supplied markets that have no need or desire to accept it.

    Meanwhile, SA has enormous amounts of US dollar reserves outside of its dollar denominated assets. They aren't likely to liquidate those as they will most likely look to poorly performing Euro denominated assets first. They have huge amounts of maneuverability to produce at this price and lower.

    In the meantime Nigeria and Venezuela are falling apart. Global demand growth is slowing, China has been for a decade the demand growth epicenter of oil and has slowed from a double digit growth rate to about 6% while diversifying its energy source allocation....

    You are thinking of SA as if it's XOM which it isn't. And the oil market isn't anywhere near as simple as your comment suggests it may be.
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:44 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    2m barrels is the amount of oil US shale displaced over the last few years from Nigerian imports to the US alone.

    OPEC is attempting to assert its role as arbiter or price. SA is under zero pressure due to its dollar denominated assets in a dollar strengthening environment. SA is the Wizard behind the curtain at OPEC. Venezuelan and Mexican imports to the US have also fallen as US shale has risen. I could go on.
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    The point I'm making isn't about abstract long term macro or central bank policy but about the relative ease with which global supply will instantly fill any void in US production. Countries are falling apart hoping the US will reduce output just so they can pick it up.
    Apr 2, 2015. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    Every single long in oil is relying on US fundamentals for guidance and completely ignoring the amount of slack in global supply capacity.
    Apr 2, 2015. 07:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater than expected build weigh on natural gas futures [View news story]
    The macro picture for both oil and ng is flattish. Unless you are daytrading technicals, there's nothing fundamental to trade on to make money and you are better served looking elsewhere.

    NG price will only increase when the pipeline capacities to move it to demand areas increase. So if you want to sit on something midstream MLPs aren't a bad idea. Prices have come down so they aren't too expensive these days. You can play it with an ETF like AMLP.
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Greek bailout talks end with no deal; Goldman frets, Mobius buys [View news story]
    Only if Germany will Lubitz the EU.
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro hit by Greek uncertainty [View news story]
    Or maybe:

    "a government official said on Friday the country won’t service its debt if creditors don’t release more funds. "

    BAM.

    http://bloom.bg/1bIywt3
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater than expected build weigh on natural gas futures [View news story]
    No, different products. Used to be that way in some markets internationally, but not in the US.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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