Seeking Alpha

kmi

kmi
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View kmi's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Greece's future hangs in the balance [View news story]
    Talking about "export stuff, work harder" indicates you completely misunderstand the nature of the Greek economy.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    Tsipras has explained the Greek proposals in detail multiple times....

    As for your position of breaking up the EU it lacks any sort of grounding in reality at all whatsoever.

    It's like me saying "airline companies should implement teleporters tomorrow so as to reduce the burden of gas costs."
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    This is wrong. An exit from the monetary union doesn't mean an exit from the EU ( the political union - such as, for example, GB which has its own currency).

    The political cost of a Europe that doesn't support EZ member states will likely be reflected in divergent policy interests between those part of the EZ and those not.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    And will continue declining under austerity, while anyone who can continues moving away (just like Detroit).
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    Greece's tax collection agency needs to be modernized or it will never collect taxes, period. Which is a problem considering there is no money left over after debt service to invest in it.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    Virtually everyone agrees that there would eventually arrive a day when Greece would have to have its debt restructured (again). Tsipras is merely moving that day forward.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    Cutting off ELA would result in immediate default and haircut of the 240b or so in loans extended Greece and losses of likely as much as 50% on it. Extending an add'l 1.5b or so as long as there seems a chance of a negotiated solution seems better. Especially considering one of the Greek proposals is to place the debt into the EFSF.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek tensions weigh on markets [View news story]
    Talks of "Regime change" being forced upon Greece:

    U.S.-based economic analyst Jacob Funk Kirkegaard cast doubt on the Athens government's longevity. He said Europe seemed to be giving up on trying to coax Tsipras toward the political center, opting for confrontation that might lead to "a new more realistic government"... The euro area thus has no real choice but to seek regime change in Athens," he said on the website of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    http://reut.rs/1KSpOWI

    I expect a deluge of bad press about Tsipras/Syriza and "polls" showing "Greek dissatisfaction" with Tsipras in coming days as a concerted campaign is waged to try and force Syriza out of power by its "partners".
    Jun 15, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Behavioral Finance Tells Us About The Greek Negotiations [View article]
    The current administration of Greece has been explicitly told to refrain from legislating even on matters both sides are in agreement on. Explicitly stated by Varoufakis himself in a recent interview. The troika policies have failed. As a result of misunderstanding the nature of the Greek economy. It's time to to step aside and try something different.
    Jun 13, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek deal not yet near as IMF team returns to D.C. [View news story]
    Yes dogmatic, considering how many parties and from which camps have discussed precisely this.

    http://bloom.bg/1IAP3dL
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Happen After A 'Speech Of Hope'? [View article]
    Apologies, there was a brief mention to tourism in the article, although it's importance was glossed over. Perhaps that is why I thought it wasn't even there.
    Jun 12, 2015. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek deal not yet near as IMF team returns to D.C. [View news story]
    Your reply is dogmatic, not pragmatic, as the reality is that those pharma bonds existed and then ceased to exist, just like California's IOUs.

    As for ELA, I quite clearly stated that indefinite was entirely unlikely and that tomorrow is just as likely as next week or next year.
    Jun 12, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Happen After A 'Speech Of Hope'? [View article]
    "Tsipras and Varoufakis believe that it has an over-levered capital structure and could be fixed with an equity injection."

    I disagree. Varoufakis had an interesting interview here: http://bit.ly/1IyT6ay where he explictly states the goals of the Syriza admin.

    Although he suggests part of the problem is in the 'over-levered capital structure' he goes on to say much more, much of which is quite in line with what is stated as the German orientation of "getting the right market mechanisms in place".

    Also, there is a significant lack of understanding in the makeup of the Greek economy, which is unfortunately exhibited by most observers.

    Two of the major components of what makes Greece, Greece, is its tourist industry and its shipping industry. Not one single mention or analysis of either in this article. Both industries being looked at and intended to be addressed by Syriza once its hands are untied by its creditors and it is allowed to legislate.

    Another item completely missing from this analysis which also indicates unfamiliarity with Greece is the fact that as what is considered a modern industrial country, it lacks many of the elements that compose those. For example, an accurate, updated, and complete land registry. An electronic tax remittance system. Things that require INVESTMENT to be brought into existence, things that Syriza intends to do, things it cannot do without development capital over and beyond its debt service.

    Varoufakis: "The first day I was in office I asked: how many tax inspectors do I have access to? You know what the answer was? 100. 100 for the whole of Greece."

    As per usual, articles about Greece completely miss the point, completely misunderstand the nature of its problems, and completely undervalue what Syriza is bringing to the table.
    Jun 12, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Behavioral Finance Tells Us About The Greek Negotiations [View article]
    Greece going to the Drachma in order to boost trade competitiveness as a vehicle to exit the current paradigm is only proposed by people who misunderstand the nature of the Greek economy. Much like the proscriptions of the Troika misunderstand the Greek economy and have caused more pain instead of increasing competitiveness. The key to getting Greece on a sustainable future is getting the Troika to step aside and allowing Syriza to fix the broken regulatory regime in place (the origin of the inefficiency of the economy) in order to create domestic economic activity.

    Greece has an educated workforce willing and able to perform, significantly multilingual, but the horrid regulatory regime makes starting businesses and encouraging foreign direct investment a nightmare.
    Jun 12, 2015. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek deal not yet near as IMF team returns to D.C. [View news story]
    As far as time, to clarify, there could be "zero" time if ELA is pulled, but as long as months if it isn't. Missing the IMF payment at the end of the month won't immediately trigger a default unless participants choose to make it so. The ECB payments could potentially be paid as well once the IMF payments are skipped...

    So it really depends: Greece is negotiating, and continues to do so. The only rationale to pull ELA right now is whether Greece is deemed to be incapable of completing the current program, and/or incapable of future solvency. But pulling ELA will absolutely result in insolvency, at significant cost to the ECB, and the ECB likely doesn't want that.... That's why the ECB said "we'll only pull ELA if the politicians tell us to..." since they don't want to be the originators of losses to European taxpayers (side note: European taxpayers, in the form of the official sector funds extended to Greece in its restructuring, have yet to take any losses as far as I can tell - it was only the private sector that took writedowns).

    So, so messy. Point being: time? There could be lots, there could be none.

    As to your point about recapitalization: I think you and I understand "currency" differently. I consider the zero coupon pharma bonds Greece issued to make good on debts owed to pharmaceutical companies (http://bloom.bg/1IAvfHE-) currency. That linked article even depicts how effective devaluation would occur since those bonds were immediately sold at discount.

    I also consider California's IOUs (http://reut.rs/1IAvfHG ) currency.

    The *domestic* economy could continue to function on some type of note, which is pretty much what currency is, without reverting wholesale to a new unit such as a Greek Euro or a Drachma, while capital controls are placed on the Euros inside the country.

    The fallout from that would be interesting as well, likely in the form of a giant sucking sound as Euros are instantly removed from any of the weaker/periphery economies and placed in 'safety' in core banks, creating other types of problems.

    All of this has been discussed at length and theorycrafted many times and in many places.
    Jun 12, 2015. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,429 Comments
4,369 Likes