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kmi

kmi
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  • Greek parliament approves bailout referendum [View news story]
    Tobias, Syriza's ideas of growth are suited to the economic realities of Greece, you should take a minute to review their proposals since you seem to be reiterating the propoganda. The troika programs were not only wrong, but they combined bad policy with austerity for a 1-2 knockout on the economy.

    There is only one way forward for the Greek economy: growth. More austerity is worse than default.
    Jun 28, 2015. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    "The loans to Greece by the IMF must be paid back even in the case of default."

    I expect Greece to eventually make the IMF whole, but Greece really has 2 years before the IMF issue needs to be addressed. It could choose to do so earlier of course.

    "in 2012 the Greek debt was cut in half by IMF forgiveness on their loans"
    Please provide a link indicating that the IMF took a 50% haircut on its Greek debt in 2012 since my understanding is that in 2012 the IMF and official creditors took no losses, it was private sector creditors who took haircuts on debt subsequently and for that matter previously purchased by official sector participants for large discounts. The official sector has taken zero haircuts, period.

    "Remember that Greece has no commerce except for travel."
    This is wrong. Greece has the largest merchant marine fleet in the world (the Greek-owned merchant fleet remains one of the world’s biggest, ranking first in tankers, second in dry bulk carriers, second in LNG tankers and container ships.), one of the best deep water naturally formed docking harbors in the world, and some of the most important ports for trade goods entering the EU.

    "80% of the loans are from the IMF"
    This is so wrong as to be embarrassing.
    Jun 28, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek parliament approves bailout referendum [View news story]
    Merkel has no voice in ECB funding. That's done by a voting majority of Eurogroup representatives. That said, it's already happened.

    But do try to keep up:

    http://tinyurl.com/ngk...
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:02 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek parliament approves bailout referendum [View news story]
    techy46, you may not know this but deals are forward-looking. That means that if the Eurogroup wants to avoid a systemic event, it needs to find a way forward. Your comment is backward looking and has no bearing on the current negotiations. Syriza has put pension reform and early retirement on the table, but your comment illustrates that you didn't know that.
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    I have skin in the game JasonC. I speak to Greeks every day. Do you?
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    Who are you mad at JasonC? The Greeks for making withdrawals of their real money they deposited into banks that provided a guarantee of access to it? The Greek banking system for performing on its obligations of of providing access to deposits? The ECB for performing on its obligations of providing liquidity to peripheral country banking systems?

    Your comment is suggesting that any one of the actors could potentially perform in a manner other than what they are doing which is, obviously, completely wrong.
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek parliament approves bailout referendum [View news story]
    "but didn't want to pay for it. "

    Misinformed comment. Syriza has consistently claimed intent to pay under sustainable terms. Everyone universally agrees that austerity can not lead to growth, and Greece cannot pay without growth. Syriza wants a sustainable debt repayment scenario occurring in conjunction with a growing economy and growth oriented policies.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:26 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek parliament approves bailout referendum [View news story]
    Missing payment to IMF is far less important than the fact that the bailout expires.

    All bets are off if the bailout expires, Greece gets to legislate at will, no longer beholden to its creditors - and more precisely to the Eurogroup which has clearly been the one responsible for the failure of obtaining a new deal. Any new restructure of its debt will occur under an entirely new paradigm that will have to take into account Syriza's policy decisions and will likely take a dramatically different shape. It is arguable that this is the best case scenario moving forward, as it will allow the IMF to take away the helm from the politicians who are beholden to their electorates and create a sustainable program.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    Once Greece delineates the path to EMU exit the EMU will never be an exclusive club again, with entry and exit occurring according to the whim and fancy of member states. The "EU project" will end.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    "You dont vote on paying your debt"

    Greeks aren't voting on "paying their debt", Tsipras has explicitly stated that the current deal is unsustainable, and will inevitably lead to another bailout/restructure while continuing to reduce the size of the economy. It's a bad deal. Tsipras has consistently taken the position that Greece wants to pay off its debt and Syriza has offered terms under which it believes it could sustainably do so, and has been turned down.

    Your comment is remarkably misinformed.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    ARG1, you misread the situation. With the Eurogroup now shutting Greece out, and with Syriza having already proven to the populace it fights for deal that is -not- kicking the can down the road, and that is *sustainable*, the reflection of events in Greece is that the deal offered by the Eurogroup will destroy what's left of the economy. The very actions the Eurogroup is now taking are reinforcing support for Tsipras and his party.

    Allowing Greece to get past June 30 with no deal is a mess for Eurogroup. Basically, the immediate effects are declines in European indexes as European entitites with interests in Greece take writedowns and writeoffs on their investments, and then there's 1.5 in debt to IMF and another 2.5 to the ECB in July that never gets paid.

    Had Eurozone ministers made a deal - as the two sides were close and a deal was very very possible - 7b of Euros remaining from the 2012 restructure could have gone to Greece from the Troika to make those 4b in payments to the.... uh.... Troika....

    There are sufficient tax receipts to continue paying pensioners with no problem once debt service is taken out of the equation and capital controls are enacted. So the drama continues.
    Jun 28, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    Considering how far he moved the ball, for one, while everyone was looking the other way. Considering how he's altered the agenda. Considering he is the only credible anti-austerity leader in Greece now that the Eurogroup made it a everything-or-nothing affair. Considering how all the pieces are falling in terms of dates, payments, and players, any notion that he hasn't outplayed the guys with full houses and flushes with his pair of deuces just doesn't give him the credit he deserves.

    I can't see Tsipras, Syriza, or Greece losing no matter how this plays out. The bailout offer on the table is worthless even if the Eurogroup backpeddles and re-offers it.

    The Eurogroup an market's 'indifference' will be the best Act in this drama. Perhaps if the slogan that Greece is immaterial to the markets and the EZ's interests hadn't been pounded by the Eurogroup itself things would have taken a different turn, but at every opportunity the Eurogroup has missed the opportunity to shore up the EZ, and reaffirm its commitment to itself as an entity. And there lies the coup de grace.
    Jun 27, 2015. 08:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    This has been a bit of masterful politicking by Tsipras who allowed the Eurogroup to overplay its hand to the point of delivering a coup de grâce on itself. Tsipras and the Greek people win in every scenario moving forward.
    Jun 27, 2015. 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    "As a result, there is no automatic mechanism to correct for overspending by Greece on imported goods and services. Either not understanding this fact, or refusing to accept it, the EU has chosen extreme austerity to accomplish the same goal. "

    I agree with this comment 100%.

    Unfortunately "institute a program of import duties" is not in keeping with the rules of the EZ/EMU so it wouldn't work while Greece is part of that.

    Greek economy pre-EU was largely microcapitalist and mercantilist and globalization and the nature and structure of the EZ rendered much of it uncompetitive and obsolete. It was apparent almost immediately as large low-cost European conglomerates entered the economy and vastly undercut domestic competition.

    What Greece needs is to leverage its assets - geopolitical location primarily, natural geography (ports), political stability - and redefine its position in the global economy.

    The assumption that devaluation and currency exit will magically lead to competitive exports that will address its trade balance issues is a fairy tale and has no basis in reality.
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tsipras sees solution to debt crisis? [View news story]
    From http://bit.ly/1LcgRb8:

    Since 2009 the Greek state’s deficit has been reduced, in cyclically adjusted terms, by a whopping 20 per cent, turning a large deficit into a large structural primary surplus. Wages contracted by 37 per cent, pensions by up to 48 per cent, state employment by 30 per cent, consumer spending by 33 per cent and even the current account deficit by 16 per cent.
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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