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  • Iran to double oil exports if sanctions lifted [View news story]
    The Saudis see the end of the Era of Oil literally on the horizon (the date keeps getting pulled back, it used to be 2050, then 2030... now as soon as the early 2020s if they allow unconventional oil to proliferate). That's what's driving them and they've said as much.

    The issue is demand growth versus supply growth in a world which has experienced oil as overpriced for almost a decade - overpriced on a btu basis versus its alternatives. Natural gas' explosion after 2008 has had a massive impact on global energy, as has the dramatic reduction in cost for renewables, and renewables' emergence as energy security policy has also also changed the landscape.

    US shale displaced a lot of oil supply, and Saudis didn't want to be its next victim. With demand growth soft in China and oil still expensive on a btu basis, it makes nothing but sense for SA to produce to capacity at what is likely going to be a decreasing price environment moving forward...
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece gets a new finance minister [View news story]
    Great headfake there, completely avoiding my question!

    But I'll respond anyway.... cause I'm just awesome that way.

    First, the programs in effect leading into December 2014 were not the ones that led to the election of the Syriza government. It was the new programs the Samaras government was getting ready to implement, under a new bailout, for more bailout cash (over 7b) that led to Syriza being elected.


    "Pre-Syriza growth" would return Greek GDP to its 1975-1999 trend… never.

    "Pre-Syriza growth" was at a pace that would not return Greek real GDP to the 2007 level of the 1975-1999 trend (if you think that was Greece's "real" potential output in 2007) until... 2023...

    And “pre-Syriza growth” would reduce Greek unemployment from its current levels… never...

    Syriza's proposals to the Eurogroup were not initially about debt relief at ALL, it was never mentioned. Even in the later meetings, after things had taken a turn for the worse economically and debt became an issue, it was mostly about restructuring durations and rates, to enable the economy to grow at a faster pace. The OECD also noted the output gap is Greece is over 10%... free growth.... provided the right policies were taken.
    Jul 6, 2015. 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece gets a new finance minister [View news story]
    Please provide details on precisely how much of the bailout funds went into Greek pockets, versus how much went to pay the creditors providing the funds, thanks!
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB maintains emergency loan cap [View news story]
    The Greeks rejected a poorly designed reform plan that would keep the economy from growing for over 20 years.

    The Greeks tightened their belts to the tune of over 25% GDP reduction, and have tightened far more than any other country in the world, period, since 2008.

    6 years of contraction, 2 bailouts, a private sector haircut, and looking at no option other than a 3rd and fourth bailout by continuing the failed programs they were subjected to and abided by. Can you blame them?
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek tensions weigh on markets; Varoufakis resigns [View news story]
    The vast majority of those who agree the troika programs have failed are non-Greek.... and include the IMF itself.... You have yet to make a comment Touchwood that adds to the conversation or has any real bearing in reality.

    I do so enjoy your comments though, keep them rolling!
    Jul 6, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek tensions weigh on markets; Varoufakis resigns [View news story]
    Good idea, that's pretty much what everyone except Germany and the EG are saying....
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek tensions weigh on markets; Varoufakis resigns [View news story]
    In every economic scenario proposed by any credible economist anywhere, it is austerity that leads to starvation, and not the rejection of a misguided austerity regime. The comments here are hilarious in their ignorance. But do go on, I am amused.
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek tensions weigh on markets; Varoufakis resigns [View news story]
    Just to be clear Tsipras offered to rescind the referendum several times.

    It was Merkel and Djoesselboem who thought it would be a good idea, expecting sanctions... ahem, liquidity... drying up, to force....ahem... persuade... the Greeks to kneel before their power.

    Djoesselboem and Merkel need to be looked at by their electorates for their incompetence. Schauble should as well, as he has successfully, as per the most recent IMF releases, created a Greece that can never pay back its debts under the dictums of his misguided austerity, and will permanently lose the German taxpayer's money.
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks set for ugly Monday open as Greece rejects austerity [View news story]
    To provide something useful to this conversation instead of the tired old meaningless diatribes, the issue with ELA is critical for the EZ. A continuation of the ELA cessation in light of the Greek government's obvious and visible efforts to obtain a deal is effectively the ECB going rogue: a central bank refusing to provide liquidity to its members.

    This would be a highly political and outside the rules case, which would clearly show potential Eurozone applicants that the EZ is not what it claims to be and no more than a hard currency peg.

    There are, as we know, many countries who have effectively use hard currency pegs, but none without a central bank to back them up.
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity [View news story]
    "Exemption was lifted because Greece was not deemed to be in a programme"

    Not at all, it was lifted based on: " "It is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion" of Greece’s current bailout. "

    After 1, just 1, meeting with Varoufakis. Not rules based at all, regardless of claims.

    Greece was indeed in the program at the time and continued to make all debt payments as scheduled for months after.

    What is true, however, is that the waiver was unique to Greece because of the ratings on its collateral, and that the ECB had issued the waiver of its own design, and that it was entitled to remove the waiver at its own discretion. But it's also true that the waiver was rescinded due to the Syriza governments intentions of renegotiating the program, and not based on any rules at all whatsoever, and designed to put pressure on the Syriza administration.
    Jul 5, 2015. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity [View news story]
    As an aside, Tricky, I was in Greece both before and after it became part of the Eurozone, attempting to invest in and build infrastructure level telecoms. I have family engaged in Greece in infrastructure level IT and heavy industry. I've watched the economy for 2 decades. I remember as recently as 2007, after heading to Greece after a trip for investment ideas in real estate in LatAm, thinking about how much better the bureaucracy was in LatAm than Greece. I've spent quite a bit more time contemplating and experiencing Greece than a lot of the commenters here playing a few grand looking for a quick double on NBG.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity [View news story]
    " The problem is that Greece has no credibility in being willing to do enough on the big structural reforms"

    You realize Syriza was explicitly barred from performing on many of these things? Varoufakis words:

    "The most frustrating part is that these negotiations are taking up all our energy and time. And moreover: the institutions are telling us, if we legislate before we reached a comprehensive agreement this will be seen as a unilateral action and it will blow up the negotiations. One of the very first things I said to my Eurogroup colleagues was, why don’t we push some of the legislation we agree on – the taxation system, the anti-corruption rules – through parliament and meanwhile continue the negotiations? And I was actually told a number of times if I dare to suggest this again this would constitute reason to settle the negotiations."

    Varoufakis wrote several times about the issues with establishing credibility:
    "Five months ago, in my very first Eurogroup intervention, I put it to you that the new Greek government faced a dual task:

    We had to earn a precious currency without depleting an important capital good.

    The precious currency we had to earn was a sense of trust, here, amongst our European partners and within the institutions. To mint that precious currency would necessitate a meaningful reform package and a credible fiscal consolidation plan."

    "The barriers to growth in the past were an unholy alliance among oligarchic interests and political parties, scandalous procurement, clientelism, the permanently broken media, overly accommodating banks, weak tax authorities, and a weighed-down, fearful judiciary. "

    Syriza is a very specific break with the past. Should elections lead to political leadership beholden to the old money oligarchs, under the aegis of someone like Panadreou, like they have in every election going back to world war 2 before Syriza, a return to the corruption graft and broken economy of that past will continue.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity [View news story]
    " They not only are refusing to reform the things that kill Greece's productivity and competitiveness"

    Wrong. It's actually pretty amazing you have so successfully ignored the volume of economics asserting that the Troika policies have failed and are based on misguided principles. Well, maybe it isn't considering you are are quoting the party line.

    Moreover, the backward looking focus in your comment entirely misses the point of the negotiations, which are forward looking, as in, intended to enable Greece to shoulder its debt burden in a sustainable way, long term.

    Your comments betray that you have not been following the events closely, and have no sense of how events actually played out.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity [View news story]
    I won't respond to trolling, thanks.

    Feel free to address me when you have something of value to further the conversation.
    Jul 4, 2015. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Varoufakis promises to quit if Greeks vote for austerity [View news story]
    You are EXACTLY wrong.

    Syriza has quite explicitly stated, on multiple occasions, it doesn't want new debt.
    Jul 4, 2015. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment