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  • Angie's List halts $40M expansion, cites new Indiana law [View news story]
    Yes, respect the tyranny of the majority! The minority opinion has no place in US politics! Err... wait a minute....
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal stocks could be near a bottom, J.P. Morgan team says [View news story]
    A lot of the tighter regulations on coal were initiated under administrations prior to the Obama admin - including both the Bush admin (Republican) and the Clinton admin (Democrat), but their implementation was delayed so long as to fall under the Obama admin.

    The point being that you can't bet Republicans will vote against the regulatory reform. They may choose to stop initiating or implementing new programs (the Obama admin chose to continue increasing legislation against coal) but the chances of them actually changing direction on current programs is close to nil. There will be a mild bump in coal's favor under a Repub admin but the trajectory will be the same.
    Mar 28, 2015. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senate passes GOP budget plan [View news story]
    How many ACA repeal votes is Congress up to now, 60? 65?
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yemen turmoil has oil challenging $50 per barrel [View news story]
    There's a push pull that has a time-lag. The inverse movement logic is that with oil at $40 the economy at large does indeed have more capital to engage in energy consuming projects. Which pushes up demand and may push up the price of oil in the event supply doesn't rise to meet demand. Eventually energy prices rise to the point that they choke off projects and future demand recedes until price drops.

    The correlated movement logic is that the economy does better thus it will use more oil thus it will drive prices oil up, but doesn't account for fluctuations in supply-demand or time-lag.

    Non-OPEC producers have NEVER acted in concert with OPEC, instead allowing OPEC to absorb price shocks. And in OPEC, that has usually meant SA since the others guys could not or would not abide.

    US shale is going to find this out the hard way. People are pressuring US shale to reduce output and be the marginal producer in control of price. When US production comes off market there will be plenty of international production to fill the gap.

    The question for the global oil market today is who is going to get bent over the barrel, and that question has not been answered yet.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yemen turmoil has oil challenging $50 per barrel [View news story]
    Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's high right now and I expect it to drop again. I watch - and have watched since the early 90s - the barrel price of oil very closely. The volume and rush of speculators into oil in the last 10 years has been awesome to behold. And I get this pretty intense sense that its a lot of amateurs who have no grasp on how macro works.

    I've watched oil flip from inversely correlated to the global economic indices, to directly correlated, and back again in the time I've watched.

    Saudis have been on record as saying $90 oil is 'fair' that $100 oil is normal... all sorts of things. I think looking to them for safeguarding price is a red herring. Hell, a 'global price stability council' is merely a cartel by another name. OPEC didn't - couldn't - stop oil spiraling up and it couldn't stop it falling down. They control percentage wise less of the worlds supply today, and when OPEC was formed the US was reliant for some 70% of its oil on OPEC. Things have changed.

    My comment wasn't a note on my business model - which is sustainable to $80 oil - it was mostly a comment on how there seems to be a severe disconnect in many people's understandings of how oil impacts business. Cheering for a higher price is directly correlated to a small percentage of investors who are still bullish on price, while a lower price directly favors pretty much everyone else.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yemen turmoil has oil challenging $50 per barrel [View news story]
    I find the excitement on bullish oil idiotic. Low oil has enabled me in the last year to hire more and initiate capital improvement projects and perform deferred maintenance.

    Higher oil will stop that all in its tracks.

    How do you guys correlate a bullish oil environment with improving economic fundamentals in the greater economy? Or is it purely the fact that you are overweight in XOM?
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: Dollar tantrum to hold back Fed [View news story]
    For years now it's been 'later than expected'.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another crack in the crude export ban? [View news story]
    Part of it can be explained by what the crudes refine into. Refineries that sell products to most of the world value diesel and prefer crudes that refine more into diesel whereas the US market consumes more gasoline and thus refiners selling into the US market prefer crudes that refine into more of that.

    Can the refineries retool to process different crudes? Sure but it's expensive and time consuming.

    Can refineries expand their operations? In the US the permitting process is so expensive and time consuming it definitely does not encourage it.

    So in some ways trading crudes for what best works for you makes sense. This isn't obviously a very deep analysis, but it may provide at least some direction to the answer you seek.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece vows to accelerate reforms; Russian sanctions linked to truce [View news story]
    Tsipras is keeping the only campaign promise that matters to Greeks - taking control of the reform agenda - and doing it despite pressure from all sides.

    Tsipras likely pointed out that the EU cannot expect Greek cooperation on the political front without EU cooperation on the financial side. As in, he likely tied Greece's cooperation in sanctions on Russia and policy on Ukraine to Europe's cooperation on allowing him to continue to act unilaterally on the Greek reform agenda.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evans: Fed's biggest risk is hiking too soon [View news story]
    And what value precisely will an eighth or fourth provide? If its impact is so negligible and all.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek talks likely to dominate EU summit [View news story]
    When thinking about Syriza one has to remember that the junior party member of the government is a extreme right party which favors NATO and Western relationships over Turkey/Russia.

    One should also remember that Greece conducts - or rather - conducted, a significant amount of trade with Russia pre-sanctions. In a country struggling to pay its bills and feeling the heel of unfriendly, uncooperative 'partners' at its throat, reinstating trade with Russia may make a lot of sense.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek talks likely to dominate EU summit [View news story]
    The EU meeting is a political meeting of the political heads of the EU. The people Greece is 'angering' are the institutions and the EZ lenders. Syriza wants the future of the lending programs to be discussed on a political, EU, level instead of as a EZ issue. This is interesting. Interesting because it may imply he wants a tighter political union, which in many ways the European debt crises of the periphery seemed to promote but the policy of the union never embraced.

    The poverty law was always on his agenda. But. The recent agreement for the 4 month extension seemed to be designed to kill both that law and any other let's call it 'unfunded' legislation proposed by Syriza.

    The 'unilateral' part means the creditors want input on Greek legislation and policy. Tsipras is taking the stance that a sovereign nation has a right to determine its own policy.
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash crash in the dollar [View news story]
    Europe is starting to find its legs and some of the momentum in the dollar has been based around expectations of a US Fed rate increase (which the Fed's actions today took some wind out of). I still think the short-mid term trend is lower and possibly parity but a large part of the move has been made.
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy top E&P names before crude prices find a bottom, Stifel says [View news story]
    But... their dollar assets... of which they have many... are doing awesome in the dollar strength environment... Don't bet on the Saudi budget price. Pain will arrive elsewhere far sooner. Nigeria for example is in shambles as is Venezuela.
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek reform drama continues [View news story]

    You clearly have absolutely no idea whatsoever what you are talking about.

    Seriously, considering the majority of your opinion on Syriza is based around the Arena... just ugh.
    Mar 18, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment