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  • Lessons From Excessive Earnings [View article]
    good point on the moat, but book value is irrelevant IMO, it is the cash flow that matters, and that is where the moat question come into play.
    Sep 16, 2010. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nova: A 'Blue Light' Special [View article]
    Thanks for your write-up, how will the value of upgrade to wabash royalty value be realized? And do one has to just "trust" their ability to enhance the royalty value part of the business.
    Appears khdhf has a bit more certainty with its cash flow albeit detailed financials are not yet available (from old khd filing, it looks good).
    Aug 3, 2010. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KHD Post Spinoff Valuation is Dirt Cheap [View instapost]
    sell TTT and accumulate KWG is likely a smart thing to do. Although TTT is also undervalued, it is probably not as much as that of KWG.
    Is KHDHF the same as KWG trading on a different market?
    May 8, 2010. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mastech: An Updated 2009 in Review [View article]
    Thanks for the write up and update.
    I had the same impression with Bottom up, i.e. top line will fall a bit further. They actually had the same comments from 2008 10K. Still a good play though, since they managed with almost everything turning against them: job, tax etc.
    Margin really thin though, so I guess there is limited growth component.
    Mar 15, 2010. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KHD Humboldt Wedag: Not A Buy Despite Breakup Plan [View article]
    Interesting point, even with considering the customer prepayment, KHD is still undervalued, I believe. Looking back at 10 year history of their owner's earning (FCF) would make this quite obvious, and sort of address your question on sustainability.
    Obviously, prediction can only be made based on historical data to certain extent, but in the case of KHD, odds are good.

    Disclosure: I have a long position in KHD.
    Mar 14, 2010. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under the Radar Developments at Insmed [View article]
    A merger, reverse merger scenario maybe more likely reading between lines. This hinges on what type of deal they do, in today's environment, with loads of cash and a late stage program, you would hope they don't do stupid things...
    Feb 1, 2010. 12:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick, No Frills Valuation of KHD [View article]
    assume they get back to the 04-06 level of fcf ~50M and stays there with no growth, a dcf valuation gives 680M vs. today's 475M, and any growth from emerging market would be icing on the cake :-)
    Jan 11, 2010. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Eric Schmidt: The Fox Promising to Help the Chickens [View article]
    If you carefully read Eric Schmidt's article, I think he got it right. Is it google vs. media, or google and media? I think later. When radio and TV cut a big chunk of newspaper's territory, it adpated. It has to do it again, and I belive smart executives in news industry get it.
    Where do we get news when there is no news organization... but, having the source of news does not entitle news organization the machinery of controlling the news. News organization has to learn that coexistence is the norm, monopoly is not, the sooner they design a business model with that reality, the better off they are.
    The goodwill news organization built over the past decades will still have profound impact years from now. Establish a system making reading in-depth online news as simple as a click, always focus on the content, the rest will come. Next few years will be very interesting to be who can survice and who will not.
    Dec 6, 2009. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thorton L. O’Glove's 'Quality of Earnings' Provides Timeless Advice for Value Investors [View article]
    Thanks Jae for referring the book.
    Oct 18, 2009. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thorton L. O’Glove's 'Quality of Earnings' Provides Timeless Advice for Value Investors [View article]
    Two thirds into the book, I have to say this is definitely a gem. Timeless advice, fresh perspective, you sure will have an edge if you do your dd. I am actually using it already to better shape up my portofolio.
    Oct 18, 2009. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Travel Centers of America: Undervalued Stock? [View article]
    The company is really cheap now, selling only 0.2 at its book value and there is not much of intangibles on its book. Its operation margin improved over the last few quarters, it also showed modest cost reduction, although mostly from discontinued operation.
    It has sufficient working capital and good current ratio to weather further decline in the economy. Not in a hurry to pay down its debt. So the company is positioned itself well once the economy picks up again. I can imagine the inventory reduction by distributors does not go too long, so we should see some modest increase in trucking activities. But 3Q and 4Q revenue is also impacted by reduced vacation and weather.
    All in all, it seems like improvement was made on operation side, go in at current price level and wait for the recovery made be worthwhile to consider.
    The company has real thin margin, so volume is everything. One risk is on the Capex side, it has high Capex spending in previous years and has wean it down in recent quarters. That can eat up any profit it comes up with.
    I don't yet own the shares of TA, but may initiate a small position.
    Sep 4, 2009. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 (More) Profitable Smallcaps Trading at a Fraction of Tangible Book Value [View article]
    Tom, I believe it is the latter, as decribed in 13D under SEC filing:
    can one figure sth out from this:
    "The Reporting Person may be deemed to beneficially own 149,488 shares of Common Stock, representing approximately 0.03% of the shares of Common Stock outstanding " and
    "The shares that were purchased, Original Notes and Original Warrants were acquired with the Reporting Person’s investment funds in accounts under management. A total of $5,000,000 was paid to acquire the Original Notes and the Original Warrants. A total of $18,210 was paid to acquire the 10,000 shares that were purchased." this is senior notes i believe...
    so we know how much Hale paid for the oringinal senior notes, and their current stake of equity, we may be able to get the valuation? then we need the dilution factor after the restructure. not sure whether this way of rationalizing is on the right track...?
    Aug 11, 2009. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 (More) Profitable Smallcaps Trading at a Fraction of Tangible Book Value [View article]
    Tom, thanks for your reply and I agree with you this is a speculative play. Good news is that they are getting out it and the company seems to be unique in what it is doing. Bad news are as what the news read. I wonder whether one can dissect the valuation from most recent 13D filing in June 09, can be found on company IR/sec filing... it looks complex to me.
    Aug 10, 2009. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 (More) Profitable Smallcaps Trading at a Fraction of Tangible Book Value [View article]
    GSIG also sold its General Optics for 21MM, "The Company also stated that its cash position, including the sale proceeds, but excluding approximately $25M of auction rate securities at fair value, totals approximately $70 million.". this news can be found on company website:
    How is the debt issurance component plays into it?..
    Aug 9, 2009. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment